Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The time .... has arrived.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 17:39:46

marmico wrote:
Anybody who thinks this is all just because of some virus, isn't thinking hard enough. The virus is just an excuse.


Spare me the BS. It's the 12th time that the sun has set on a US economic expansion since 1945. And it ain't got nuttin' to do with peak oil (LTG*).

https://www.nber.org/cycles.html...

???

I have already said in this thread it would be just another recession.

You don't seriously think I've turned into some sort of hard core doomer, now do you? :? :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9584
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 20:28:57

Armageddon wrote:Skipping the recession. Going straight to a depression.

Of course it is! :roll:

And given how prescient all you other claims/calls have been, I certainly believe that. :roll:

Maybe not crying "wolf" 10,000 times for little or no reason would stand you in better stead, now that something REAL is actually occurring. Not that you or anyone else could have predicted COVID-19 and the timing.

OTOH, since folks like you have been claiming we've been in a depression or bad recession since 2007, if playing with names amuses you, then as usual, you can say you were "right".

If only concepts like reality and definitions didn't exist. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 8006
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby GHung » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 21:22:21

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Skipping the recession. Going straight to a depression.

Of course it is! :roll:

And given how prescient all you other claims/calls have been, I certainly believe that. :roll:

Maybe not crying "wolf" 10,000 times for little or no reason would stand you in better stead, now that something REAL is actually occurring. Not that you or anyone else could have predicted COVID-19 and the timing.

OTOH, since folks like you have been claiming we've been in a depression or bad recession since 2007, if playing with names amuses you, then as usual, you can say you were "right".

If only concepts like reality and definitions didn't exist. :idea:


I've watched for years now; people here pointing out that global systems have become increasingly vulnerable to black swans; sacrificing resiliency for obscene profits and fiat growth, much of it unearned. I've watched for years as you've built strawmen around that, conveniently creating a false narrative between being a realist with different opinions or being a "doomer". Damned lame, that. And now a complete lack of admission that some here have been proven right. Reveals a lack of character, that.
Not sure if it's hubris or cowardice. Both, maybe.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3038
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby yeahbut » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 21:58:29

GHung wrote: global systems have become increasingly vulnerable to black swans; sacrificing resiliency for obscene profits and fiat growth.


It certainly is an interesting thought exercise:
is the system uniquely vulnerable now? what kind of impact would covid-19 have had on the world 50 years ago? Or in 1950? Would it have been thrown into the massive economic tailspin that it has now? I mean, the great depression doesn't seem like a very resilient response to the wall st crash, but is that different? No, I'm asking . I have no idea.
User avatar
yeahbut
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 817
Joined: Tue 30 Oct 2007, 02:00:00

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Pops » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 22:41:02

8 people (6 American) own as much wealth as half of humanity.
95% of economic gains went to the top 1% net worth since 2009

Most wealth is intangible, equities based on future earnings, etc. because, well, you can only eat so much caviar and profits must go somewhere.
Imagine if a greater portion of the gains since 09 had gone, oh I don't know, to the people who earned it? Would that wealth have been nothing but the seltzer blowing the market froth we've just seen evaporate?

It might have gone to hookers and blow but a little might have gone to more efficient vehicles or owning a home, or college or debt repayment or school lunch or any of a billion tangible items people might actually use.

But it went into blowing yet another record market bubble.

Don't know if that make this system less stable than it used to be when America was great but it sure makes it less worthwhile for the 99%
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 18705
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 17 Mar 2020, 02:09:12

yeahbut wrote:
GHung wrote: global systems have become increasingly vulnerable to black swans; sacrificing resiliency for obscene profits and fiat growth.


It certainly is an interesting thought exercise:
is the system uniquely vulnerable now? what kind of impact would covid-19 have had on the world 50 years ago? Or in 1950? Would it have been thrown into the massive economic tailspin that it has now? I mean, the great depression doesn't seem like a very resilient response to the wall st crash, but is that different? No, I'm asking . I have no idea.


Back in 1950 Americans along with everyone else were subject to a whole suite of diseases we now routinely immunize against, plus Smallpox. Mumps, Measles, Rubella, Scarlet Fever, Polio... Combined they added up to 30% of children falling seriously ill before adulthood and 20% of children dying before reaching the age of 18. Quarantines of infected homes or communities was a routine health measure and people did not freak out and sell their stock when an illness swept the world.

Even in the 1970's a little less than 50 years ago the first time Swine Flu swept the world people were used to the idea that diseases are part of life and the economy chugged along little changed.

Today the majority of Americans alive today have no memory of epidemic illnesses being a real life threatening part of existence and they do not yet have the mental understanding of how to deal with the idea that life is more fragile than humans wish it to be. On top of that the Media from far left to far right has been sensationalizing every moment of the Covid-19 epidemic beyond and sense of reason by for example telling people how many have been infected and how many have died but failing to emphasize how many of the infected have fully recovered and can leave quarantine.

While these factors can certainly cause panic selling and the consequences of it in the larger picture humans are more able to deal with quarantine now that they were in 1950 by a very large margin. Telecommuting for white collar workers mean that while a large part of the economy will be taking a big hit the management to deal with issues as they arise is still able to make crucial decisions in a timely manner. It is up to that white collar strata of society to keep things working as best as possible. So long as their own self interest keeps them on the job the rest of us should make it through alive and able to recover in 4-6 months.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 15719
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby yeahbut » Tue 17 Mar 2020, 03:24:58

Pops, Tanada- that is why I still lurk around this site. Some of the smartest people I know, with fascinating insights and perspectives, are here. Goodnight and good luck PO folks.
User avatar
yeahbut
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 817
Joined: Tue 30 Oct 2007, 02:00:00

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby GHung » Tue 17 Mar 2020, 09:18:38

yeahbut wrote:
GHung wrote: global systems have become increasingly vulnerable to black swans; sacrificing resiliency for obscene profits and fiat growth.


It certainly is an interesting thought exercise:
is the system uniquely vulnerable now? what kind of impact would covid-19 have had on the world 50 years ago? Or in 1950? Would it have been thrown into the massive economic tailspin that it has now? I mean, the great depression doesn't seem like a very resilient response to the wall st crash, but is that different? No, I'm asking . I have no idea.


Some of the vulnerabilities are:
... Humans are far more mobile, globally, than they were in the '30s
... Supply chains are JIT (just in time) and are, again, more global. Most products are not produced locally and are not warehoused/stockpiled for the most part.
... Food chains are also very long, intercontinental in many instances. The onions in my stew last night are from Peru. I'm in North Carolina.
... Many products these days are not built to last. Planned obsolescence is a thing now.
... There are far more humans now, making more demands on systems. Per capita energy and resource consumption is much higher. Economies/jobs/infrastructures get locked into those levels of production/consumption.
... Systems are far more complex, optimized. A lot of things have to go right for them to perform.
... Financial and technical cross-contagion is more of a thing these days, IMO.

I could go on, and folks are free to add to the list. I have to go buy more toilet paper :twisted:
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3038
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby yeahbut » Tue 17 Mar 2020, 16:12:55

GHung wrote:
Some of the vulnerabilities are:
... Humans are far more mobile, globally, than they were in the '30s
... Supply chains are JIT (just in time) and are, again, more global. Most products are not produced locally and are not warehoused/stockpiled for the most part.
... Food chains are also very long, intercontinental in many instances. The onions in my stew last night are from Peru. I'm in North Carolina.
... Many products these days are not built to last. Planned obsolescence is a thing now.
... There are far more humans now, making more demands on systems. Per capita energy and resource consumption is much higher. Economies/jobs/infrastructures get locked into those levels of production/consumption.
... Systems are far more complex, optimized. A lot of things have to go right for them to perform.
... Financial and technical cross-contagion is more of a thing these days, IMO.


Yes the vulnerablility of complexity is real, and still to be genuinely tested.
Re food, I guess there aren't many countries left that could feed themselves if they had to. In NZ, which is a real food bowl, we couldn't these days because we specialise so intensively for export markets, mainly dairy products. Once, we had a very wide range of horticultural and agricultural crops including substantial wheat production, but farmers went where the money was (of course, and who can blame them?). We wouldn't have any bread if we got cut off, but we sure could stuff ourselves with 'milk solids'...

GHung wrote:I could go on, and folks are free to add to the list. I have to go buy more toilet paper :twisted:


Image
User avatar
yeahbut
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 817
Joined: Tue 30 Oct 2007, 02:00:00

Previous

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 19 guests