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Peak oil debate

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 22 May 2019, 15:41:29

Although I make a point of not cyber engaging in these forums with people of little contributory significance (which is why I greatly appreciate input from those dealing in relevant facts), ol' SL's spew above could be illustrative of why so many on these sites miss so much of what is going on in the real world of LTO.

Does SL know that CNX's senor vice president of engineering and operations (BIG job!) Andrea Passman was let go 2 weeks ago and only publically acknowledged yesterday afternoon?
Is SL aware of the issues on CNX's Shaw pad that are costing the company tens of millions in production costs?
Most pertinently to ANYONE who follows this so called Shale Revolution ... what the fuck does the current HH price of $2.56/mmbtu mean in the context of available supply for, say, the next several DECADES?

Main point being, there is such a vast, vast supply of hydrocarbons - specifically natgas - poised to enter the market that producers are facing longterm challenges.

Just like the guy selling buckets of seawater down at the beach, CNX - along with many other operators - is dealing with resource abundance, not scarcity.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 22 May 2019, 16:28:46

coffeeguyzz wrote:
Main point being, there is such a vast, vast supply of hydrocarbons - specifically natgas - poised to enter the market that producers are facing longterm challenges.

Just like the guy selling buckets of seawater down at the beach, CNX - along with many other operators - is dealing with resource abundance, not scarcity.


Yup.

The huge natgas reserves found in TOS are amazing and have been widely publicized for years. No one should dispute this fact. Obama even boasted in a state of the union address that the USA had a "100y year supply" of nat gas thanks to fracking....and that was only about 5 years ago, so we've got at least 95 more years of nat gas supply to go.....

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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 04 Feb 2020, 18:16:52

Oil from a Critical Raw Material Perspective
Geological Survey of Finland
Date: 22/12/2019
500 page PDF
Starting in January 2005, all commodity prices that the World Bank track to monitor the industrial ecosystem (base metals, precious metals, oil, gas and coal) blew out in an unprecedented bubble. The second worst economic correction in history, The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008, was not enough to resolve the underlying fundamental issues. After the GFC, the volatility in commodity price continued. This report makes the case that the GFC was created as the entire industrial ecosystem was put under unprecedented stress, where the weakest link broke. That weakest link was in the financial markets. The strain that created this unprecedented stress, was triggered by the global oil production plateauing. This made the oil market in elastic in form. This is postulated to have happened because the Saudi Arabian oil production was unable to increase production in January 2005, in spite a significant increase of operating rig count. If further analysis supports this hypothesis, then the GFC was created by a chain reaction that had its origins in the oil market.

Due to our dependence on oil, it may be the primary, or master raw resource. Oil has a more significant CRM profile (immanent shortage in context of a vital resource) than almost any other raw material supplying industry. It is recommended that oil, gas, coal and uranium are all added to the European CRM list.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Darian S » Wed 11 Mar 2020, 17:34:13

Plantagenet wrote:
coffeeguyzz wrote:
Main point being, there is such a vast, vast supply of hydrocarbons - specifically natgas - poised to enter the market that producers are facing longterm challenges.

Just like the guy selling buckets of seawater down at the beach, CNX - along with many other operators - is dealing with resource abundance, not scarcity.


Yup.

The huge natgas reserves found in TOS are amazing and have been widely publicized for years. No one should dispute this fact. Obama even boasted in a state of the union address that the USA had a "100y year supply" of nat gas thanks to fracking....and that was only about 5 years ago, so we've got at least 95 more years of nat gas supply to go.....

CHEERS!


Is natural gas from fracking different in production peak from oil from fracking? Or does it peak after a few years and drop down to a trickle of production thereafter?

edit: seems like that century will run dry during the first five years going by the following.
Production declines this severe are common in unconventional natural gas wells drilled in shale. If you have a new well or have recently leased your property, it might be a good idea to be very conservative with your long-term royalty expectations
.
Your income from that well is going to fall rapidly at first and eventually decline to zero.


The typical well might yield as much as half of its gas in the first five years of production. Wells might then continue to produce for a total of twenty to thirty years but at lower and lower production rates. Caution with production and royalty expectations is recommended because long-term experience from shale formations in the United States is not available.
https://geology.com/royalty/production-decline.shtml
Last edited by Darian S on Wed 11 Mar 2020, 18:31:10, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 11 Mar 2020, 18:17:10

Plantagenet wrote: No one should dispute this fact. Obama even boasted in a state of the union address that the USA had a "100y year supply" of nat gas thanks to fracking....and that was only about 5 years ago, so we've got at least 95 more years of nat gas supply to go.....

CHEERS!

A grain of salt should be taken with that figure. For one thing it was for the then current US consumption. We are now using 28 percent more then 2015 and the trend is solidly up.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 12 Mar 2020, 09:28:05

please stop spamming every thread with your sheer idiocy. It is one thing to have the mental defect to accept obviously fabricated nonsense as "fact" it is an entirely higher level of mental defect to think everyone here wants to see it time and time again. Confine your nonsense to a single thread or better yet start your own thread so we can all avoid it...maybe call it "I have a stupid idea and want to share it".
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 12 Mar 2020, 10:26:47

Amen, but it's not like bochen is the only nut allowed to run free here. That's why the ignore feature exists.

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