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Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 10:42:28

Australian Crop Report: December edition
[these are forecasts]

.https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/r ... rop-report

Winter crop production is forecast to fall by 3% in 2019–20 to 29.4 million tonnes,
which is around 27% below the 10-year average to 2018–19.
Production is forecast to fall for the third consecutive year since record high production was achieved in 2016–17.
Production is forecast to be below average in every state except Victoria, where above average production is expected.

For the major winter crops:
Wheat production is forecast to decrease by 8% to around 15.9 million tonnes,
35% below the 10-year average to 2018–19.

Barley production is forecast to increase by 4% to around 8.7 million tonnes,
3% below the 10-year average to 2018–19.

Canola production is forecast to fall by 4% to around 2.1 million tonnes,
35% below the 10-year average to 2018–19.

Area planted to winter crops is estimated to have increased to just under 18.1 million hectares, partly because a smaller area of crops intended for grains and oilseeds production was cut for hay this year than last year.
The crops planted for grains and oilseeds production that were cut for hay this year were cut in response to high fodder prices and unfavourable seasonal conditions in September in regions with low levels of soil moisture at the beginning of spring.

Area planted to summer crops is expected to fall in 2019–20 for the second consecutive year to 535,000 hectares, which reflects low levels of soil moisture and an unfavourable outlook for seasonal conditions during summer in Queensland and northern New South Wales.
Summer crop production is forecast to decline by 52% to around 1.2 million tonnes.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Zarquon » Fri 20 Dec 2019, 17:40:24

Newfie wrote:I’ve been looking for a concise source of data that shows stats for world grain imports and exports. Rice, wheat, corn, soybean. Ideally it would show where major exporters sold and where major importers bought.

I find a lot of BS statistics but not much that puts things into a global perspective. I found statistics.con which MAY have these stats but they want money for access.


Try this site:
https://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/ ... -harvested

"All data is sourced from the United States Department of Agriculture PSD database. It is updated approximately once per month."
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Thu 16 Jan 2020, 10:46:42

Record 45 million people across Southern Africa face hunger: U.N. food agency
https://www.yahoo.com/news/record-45-million-people-across-122151373.html



JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - The United Nations World Food Programme said on Thursday that a record 45 million people in the 16-nation Southern African Development Community faced growing hunger following repeated drought, widespread flooding and economic disarray.

Southern Africa is in the grips of a severe drought, as climate change wreaks havoc in impoverished countries already struggling to cope with extreme natural disasters, such as Cyclone Idai which devastated Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi in 2019.

Zimbabwe, once the breadbasket of southern Africa, is experiencing its worst economic crisis in a decade, marked by soaring inflation and shortages of food, fuel, medicines and electricity.

"This hunger crisis is on a scale we've not seen before and the evidence shows it's going to get worse," the WFP's Regional Director for Southern Africa, Lola Castro, said in a statement.

"The annual cyclone season has begun and we simply cannot afford a repeat of the devastation caused by last year's unprecedented storms."



In December, the United Nations said it was procuring food assistance for 4.1 million Zimbabweans, a quarter of the population of a country where shortages are being exacerbated by runaway inflation and climate-induced drought.

"Zimbabwe is in the throes of its worst hunger emergency in a decade, with 7.7 million people – half the population – seriously food insecure," the agency said.

In Zambia and drought-stricken Lesotho, 20% of the population faces a food crisis, as do 10% of Namibians.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 16 Jan 2020, 11:23:44

Azothius wrote:Record 45 million people across Southern Africa face hunger: U.N. food agency
https://www.yahoo.com/news/record-45-million-people-across-122151373.html



JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - The United Nations World Food Programme said on Thursday that a record 45 million people in the 16-nation Southern African Development Community faced growing hunger following repeated drought, widespread flooding and economic disarray.

Southern Africa is in the grips of a severe drought, as climate change wreaks havoc in impoverished countries already struggling to cope with extreme natural disasters, such as Cyclone Idai which devastated Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi in 2019.

Zimbabwe, once the breadbasket of southern Africa, is experiencing its worst economic crisis in a decade, marked by soaring inflation and shortages of food, fuel, medicines and electricity.

"This hunger crisis is on a scale we've not seen before and the evidence shows it's going to get worse," the WFP's Regional Director for Southern Africa, Lola Castro, said in a statement.

"The annual cyclone season has begun and we simply cannot afford a repeat of the devastation caused by last year's unprecedented storms."



In December, the United Nations said it was procuring food assistance for 4.1 million Zimbabweans, a quarter of the population of a country where shortages are being exacerbated by runaway inflation and climate-induced drought.

"Zimbabwe is in the throes of its worst hunger emergency in a decade, with 7.7 million people – half the population – seriously food insecure," the agency said.

In Zambia and drought-stricken Lesotho, 20% of the population faces a food crisis, as do 10% of Namibians.

That is mainly because they are exterminating white farmers in South Africa Republic (as they already did in Zimbabwe) and yet they are too stupid to run business themselves.
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 04:04:16

Global atmospheric angular momentum has gone net U positive for the first time in the record.

https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/

https://twitter.com/gensiniwx/status/12 ... 8897850368

Not sure what effect this might have on crop production. But it's...interesting (or would be merely interesting if it were happening on Mars...)
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Wed 26 Feb 2020, 09:58:07

A plague of locusts has descended on East Africa. Climate change may be to blame.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... st-africa/

Human activity has made an ocean circulation pattern misbehave—triggering a weird confluence of events that has caused the infestations.


The insects behind the mayhem are desert locusts, which, despite their name, thrive following periods of heavy rainfall that trigger blooms of vegetation across their normally arid habitats in Africa and the Middle East. Experts say a prolonged bout of exceptionally wet weather, including several rare cyclones that struck eastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula over the last 18 months, are the primary culprit. The recent storminess, in turn, is related to the the Indian Ocean Dipole, an ocean temperature gradient that was recently extremely pronounced, something that’s also been linked to the devastating bushfires in eastern Australia.


Recent research suggests this pattern could become more common in a warming world. A 2014 paper led by Cai found that under a worst-case carbon emissions scenario, the frequency of extremely positive Indian Ocean Dipole events could increase nearly threefold by the end of the century. In a follow up study in 2018, researchers found that if the planet warms just 1.5 degrees—a target the world could pass within the next decade—extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole phases could still double. According to Cai, there’s already evidence of the Indian Ocean Dipole trending more positively overall.

Whether that will lead to more plagues of locusts is an open question, but it’s a worrying possibility. Ocean circulation patterns aside, climate change is warming the oceans everywhere, which is expected to trigger more intense downpours. In the Arabian Sea, recent research suggests global warming is already making fall cyclones more intense. At the same time, other research has tied climate change to worsening droughts and failing rains across East Africa, painting a picture of an uncertain future, but one that’s almost certainly more dangerous.

While scientists continue to explore where East Africa’s climate is headed, aid organizations are scrambling to prevent the locust crisis from getting worse. Last month, the FAO called on the international community to pony up $76 million for pest control operations and to protect farmers and pastoralists in five countries afflicted by locusts. Cressman is hopeful the money will come, but he’s concerned about the timing. As the insects continue to multiply, the need for aid could rise considerably, especially if more aggressive control measures aren’t implemented soon.



Desert Locust situation update 24 February 2020
http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/en/info/info/index.html

Swarms invade the Persian Gulf and continue to breed in the Horn of Africa

The situation remains extremely alarming in the Horn of Africa, specifically Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia where widespread breeding is in progress and new swarms are expected to form in the coming weeks. In the past few days, there has been a significant movement of swarms over the Arabian Peninsula, unrelated to the Horn of Africa, that reached both sides of the Persian Gulf.

Kenya. Swarms continue to be reported in northern and central areas where they are mostly mature and have laid eggs. Hatching is causing an increasing number of hopper bands to form with new swarm formation expected in the coming weeks. Mature swarms are also present along the shores of Lake Turkana. Aerial and ground control operations continue.

Ethiopia. The situation is similar to Kenya with widespread swarms, breeding and hatching in Somali, Oromiya and SNNPR regions, including the Rift Valley. Movements further north can be expected as well as from adjacent areas of Somalia and Kenya.

Somalia. Breeding continues in the northeast where new immature swarms are expected to form in about one week or so.

Uganda. A mature swarm arrived in the northeast from adjacent areas of western Kenya on 24 February.

South Sudan. Only remnants of an earlier mature swarm have been seen in the southeastern county of Magwi. A second mature swarm was seen near the border on 23 February.

Tanzania. No new reports of swarms.

DRC (Democratic Republic of the Congo). A small group of mature Desert Locust arrived on the western shore of Lake Albert near Bunia on 21 February after crossing northern Uganda on strong northeasterly winds. The country last received Desert Locust in 1944.

Saudi Arabia. Ground control operations increased against hopper bands on the Red Sea coast and immature groups and swarms in the interior.

Yemen. Another generation of breeding is in progress on the Red Sea coast where hatching and early instar hopper bands are forming. Immature and mature swarms were reported in the interior during this past week. Surveys remain limited and control could not be carried out.

Persian Gulf. During several days of strong winds, dense immature swarms arrived in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and along the southwest coast of Iran between Bushehr and Kish Island on 20-21 February. More swarms are likely during periods of southerly winds. Control operations were immediately mounted in Iran



Locust invasion devastates crops as Pakistan suffers worst infestation in two decades
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvOu7us3lpQ
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early indications point to a near-record wheat production in

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 15:50:26

Oh dear, good thing we have the coronavirus to worry about, looks like another good to record year for cereal grains.

Amid generally well supplied cereal markets, early indications point to a near-record wheat production in 2020.

Global cereal markets in 2019/20 are expected to remain well supplied, comfortably covering the forecast growth in consumption.

FAO’s 2019 world cereal production estimate is currently pegged at 2 719 million tonnes, almost 62 million tonnes (2.3 percent) above production in 2018 and 4.7 million tonnes higher than reported in February. The estimate of global production of coarse grains has been raised by 5 million tonnes to 1 444 million tonnes since the previous report in February, up by 2.4 percent from 2018.


http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/
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Re: Climate Chaos and Crop Production

Unread postby Azothius » Tue 10 Mar 2020, 09:06:59

Extreme Weather Events Expose Vulnerability of Crops Globally

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/extr ... 00030.html

Compare the article that Jawa links to this one, which provides quite a list of regions with (supposedly) impaired growing seasons coming up.

Will be interesting to see which proves more accurate.
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