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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 3 (merged)

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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 30 Jan 2020, 14:31:50

EdwinSm wrote:Just when it was going well with the China factory the BBC reported
Several international airlines have stopped or scaled back their routes to China and companies like Google, Ikea, Starbucks and Tesla have closed their shops or stopped operations.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51305526

I wonder how this will work out both for Tesla and other motor manufactures.

[ps I am aware that Rock...123 thinks that the share markets will bounce back once the Wuhan virus scare is over, so there is not reason for concern. But to me it feels that this will be more serious than the SARS outbreak, and so could have a much wider economic impact.]

And of course, that's what makes markets -- so many variables and wildly varying certainty among them, including things that no one expects.

Obviously with an outbreak like this, the markets will respond partly from how much economic activity is hampered by closings and people hunkering down, and partly from the fear of how bad it could get, re hurting future economic activity. Given how virtually everyone can easily get similar updates from medical evidence from the 'net, it's going to be hard to get a real edge betting on an event like this.

But of course people will, because short term betting is a big part of market activity (turbo-boosted by machine trading, of course).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 03 Feb 2020, 13:07:40

rockdoc123 wrote:I had a conversation the other day with an investment banker as to if he saw some reason for Tesla shares to suddenly move much higher. His comment was fundamentally there was no reason but it could be because it was so heavily shorted previously and if those shorts were positions held by hedge funds they may have decided to close them out, perhaps thinking the worst was over for Tesla. My own thinking (and I have no evidence of this) is given Musk has shown continual disregard for laws that pertain to trading and disclosure around publicly held companies I wouldn't be surprised that he has orchestrated a rise behind the scenes. Could he have had companies that are held at arms length waltz in and buy up shares in order to move the market? He would likely see this as a means of avoiding share buyback disclosures and making the company look more attractive. The SEC let him off with a light wrist slap last time so I wouldn't be surprised that he thinks he is now bullet proof. As well, I think the price has now moved past the point where Musk gets a very large payout according to his contract. Coincidence? Maybe. In any event given the fact the company still faces huge head winds, has yet to show significant profits and will be up against the wall as larger, more experienced auto firms rollout their own EV's I think this story will not end well for anyone who bought the stock in the last few days. Just my opinion of course.


story will not end well for anyone who bought the stock in the last few days


Illiterate dumbbell rockdoc said TSLA would get creamed at $500. Its now $700 which proves rockdoc hasn't got a clue about anything.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 03 Feb 2020, 20:11:06

StarvingLion wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:I had a conversation the other day with an investment banker as to if he saw some reason for Tesla shares to suddenly move much higher. His comment was fundamentally there was no reason but it could be because it was so heavily shorted previously and if those shorts were positions held by hedge funds they may have decided to close them out, perhaps thinking the worst was over for Tesla. My own thinking (and I have no evidence of this) is given Musk has shown continual disregard for laws that pertain to trading and disclosure around publicly held companies I wouldn't be surprised that he has orchestrated a rise behind the scenes. Could he have had companies that are held at arms length waltz in and buy up shares in order to move the market? He would likely see this as a means of avoiding share buyback disclosures and making the company look more attractive. The SEC let him off with a light wrist slap last time so I wouldn't be surprised that he thinks he is now bullet proof. As well, I think the price has now moved past the point where Musk gets a very large payout according to his contract. Coincidence? Maybe. In any event given the fact the company still faces huge head winds, has yet to show significant profits and will be up against the wall as larger, more experienced auto firms rollout their own EV's I think this story will not end well for anyone who bought the stock in the last few days. Just my opinion of course.


story will not end well for anyone who bought the stock in the last few days


Illiterate dumbbell rockdoc said TSLA would get creamed at $500. Its now $700 which proves rockdoc hasn't got a clue about anything.

If accuracy re predictions is an indicator of intelligence, you sir make slugs look like Albert Einstein.

Meanwhile, just because the stock is now in a parabolic rise, probably blowing out the vast majority of the short sellers, does NOT mean that will last forever, or even another month.

If you're so wise about such things, just shut up and day trade it brilliantly and become a billionaire. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 04 Feb 2020, 13:09:33

Illiterate dumbbell rockdoc said TSLA would get clobbered at $500. Now its $910.

What does rockdoc know? Absolutely nothing.

Admit it: TSLA is a CCP stock along with AMZN, FB, GOOGLE

Pure Commie Shit.

Enjoy being in front of a firing squad. hahahahaha.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 06 Feb 2020, 04:09:59

Tesla shares fell 17% after it warned about the effect of the Wuhan Coronavirus. Their factory is in Shanghai, so away from the main area of the outbreak, but it is closed until the 10th.

https://www.bbc.com/news/51353147
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 06 Feb 2020, 06:14:48

EdwinSm wrote:Tesla shares fell 17% after it warned about the effect of the Wuhan Coronavirus. Their factory is in Shanghai, so away from the main area of the outbreak, but it is closed until the 10th.

https://www.bbc.com/news/51353147

That just knocks it back to where it was three days ago. There was no real reason for it to run up like it did and a little more bad news could easily bring it down to where it was a month ago or $460 a share.
https://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=jnaz ... ce%20chart
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 06 Feb 2020, 13:21:51

vtsnowedin wrote:
EdwinSm wrote:Tesla shares fell 17% after it warned about the effect of the Wuhan Coronavirus. Their factory is in Shanghai, so away from the main area of the outbreak, but it is closed until the 10th.

https://www.bbc.com/news/51353147

That just knocks it back to where it was three days ago. There was no real reason for it to run up like it did and a little more bad news could easily bring it down to where it was a month ago or $460 a share.
https://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=jnaz ... ce%20chart


Look, another idiot predicting TSLA will go back to $500. You know what, clowns, I'm gonna bet that TSLA goes to $1500 and if it doesn't I will disappear forever. Because, you know what, you illiterate dumbbells don't know shit about anything.

There it is, TSLA goes to $1500 or I'm gone.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 07 Feb 2020, 15:26:08

EdwinSm wrote:Tesla shares fell 17% after it warned about the effect of the Wuhan Coronavirus. Their factory is in Shanghai, so away from the main area of the outbreak, but it is closed until the 10th.

https://www.bbc.com/news/51353147

That was in the news, but given what's been going on re a short squeeze and extremely wild/speculative trading, it's likely it's more some technical supply/demand issue around trading schemes, as fundamentals, since it seems to have come completely unglued from any sign of rational valuation in recent weeks.

Matt Levine, for example, points out some of the huge corporate level hedges in place, surrounding Tesla stock and convertable bonds.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... wild-times
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 07 Feb 2020, 15:32:01

StarvingLion wrote:Illiterate dumbbell rockdoc said TSLA would get clobbered at $500. Now its $910.

What does rockdoc know? Absolutely nothing.


If you're going to bark at bad predictions, you should be constantly barking your fool mouth off at your own failed predictions.

Now it's been down the last 3 days, down over $170 from the $910 you cited. Rock might well have the last laugh (but I'll be the first to admit I have no idea what moves Tesla over time, as it seems far more speculative than carefully reasoned, especially from week to week).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 07 Feb 2020, 17:26:01

StarvingLion wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
EdwinSm wrote:Tesla shares fell 17% after it warned about the effect of the Wuhan Coronavirus. Their factory is in Shanghai, so away from the main area of the outbreak, but it is closed until the 10th.

https://www.bbc.com/news/51353147

That just knocks it back to where it was three days ago. There was no real reason for it to run up like it did and a little more bad news could easily bring it down to where it was a month ago or $460 a share.
https://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=jnaz ... ce%20chart


Look, another idiot predicting TSLA will go back to $500. You know what, clowns, I'm gonna bet that TSLA goes to $1500 and if it doesn't I will disappear forever. Because, you know what, you illiterate dumbbells don't know shit about anything.

There it is, TSLA goes to $1500 or I'm gone.
I predicted nothing. I merely stated the indisputable fact that it could go down to where it was last month. There is a world of difference between possible and will. As to your $1500 or gone bet, have at it. Don't let the door hit you in the arse.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 09 Feb 2020, 04:51:19

vtsnowedin wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
EdwinSm wrote:Tesla shares fell 17% after it warned about the effect of the Wuhan Coronavirus. Their factory is in Shanghai, so away from the main area of the outbreak, but it is closed until the 10th.

https://www.bbc.com/news/51353147

That just knocks it back to where it was three days ago. There was no real reason for it to run up like it did and a little more bad news could easily bring it down to where it was a month ago or $460 a share.
https://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=jnaz ... ce%20chart


Look, another idiot predicting TSLA will go back to $500. You know what, clowns, I'm gonna bet that TSLA goes to $1500 and if it doesn't I will disappear forever. Because, you know what, you illiterate dumbbells don't know shit about anything.

There it is, TSLA goes to $1500 or I'm gone.
I predicted nothing. I merely stated the indisputable fact that it could go down to where it was last month. There is a world of difference between possible and will. As to your $1500 or gone bet, have at it. Don't let the door hit you in the arse.

Notice he gave no timeframe at all for his "$1500 or gone" claim. :roll: Given the credibility of his comment history here, why is it that somehow, I just don't find such claims or "promises" from him even remotely credible? :?:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 3 (merged)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 10 Feb 2020, 13:20:47

I've raised my target for TSLA from $1500 to $15000. Exxon Mobil stock will be $10. Ford stock will be below $1. All this will happen sometime before Jan 1, 2021.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 10 Feb 2020, 13:55:58

Today's rumor is that Google will buy Tesla for $1500/share. Wonder how many billions the shorts will lose on that one. :)
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 3 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 10 Feb 2020, 17:34:17

StarvingLion wrote:I've raised my target for TSLA from $1500 to $15000. Exxon Mobil stock will be $10. Ford stock will be below $1. All this will happen sometime before Jan 1, 2021.

Congrats on making a specific forecast.

The odds that all those things will happen this year are near zero, but at least you're giving specifics.

Tesla fanbois would be SO very proud of your Tesla forecast, BTW.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 3 (merged)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 13 Feb 2020, 14:05:28

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:I've raised my target for TSLA from $1500 to $15000. Exxon Mobil stock will be $10. Ford stock will be below $1. All this will happen sometime before Jan 1, 2021.

Congrats on making a specific forecast.

The odds that all those things will happen this year are near zero, but at least you're giving specifics.

Tesla fanbois would be SO very proud of your Tesla forecast, BTW.


So far so good, admit it...TSLA is a CCP scam just like AMZN. You clowns are so pathetic you can't even see the obvious. Another prediction: Outcast_Searcher will be in front of a CCP Firing Squad within 5 years.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 3 (merged)

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 15 Feb 2020, 13:14:25

Tesla takes advantage of those buying into the bubble.

Tesla has priced its secondary common stock offering at $767, a 4.6% discount from Thursday’s share price close, according to a securities filing Friday.

Tesla said in the filing it will sell 2.65 million shares at that discounted price to raise more than $2 billion. Lead underwriters Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have the option to buy an additional 397,500 shares in the offering.


https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/14/tesla ... per-share/
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 3 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 15 Feb 2020, 14:13:25

jawagord wrote:Tesla takes advantage of those buying into the bubble.

Tesla has priced its secondary common stock offering at $767, a 4.6% discount from Thursday’s share price close, according to a securities filing Friday.

Tesla said in the filing it will sell 2.65 million shares at that discounted price to raise more than $2 billion. Lead underwriters Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have the option to buy an additional 397,500 shares in the offering.


https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/14/tesla ... per-share/

The only thing surprising to me is that they didn't try to raise, say $5 billion while the stock is hot and the dilution effect small (relatively speaking).

Either way, the more cash they can raise, the longer they can stay in business and/or grow faster.

Now over time, the real question is how their high priced cars with relatively low quality overall (looking at repair rates, not fanboi emotional claims) do, as the real competition starts to emerge in force over the next couple of years (and even more so after that).

Tesla can obviously sell into the preening luxury class who care more about things like acceleration than reliability. Whether they can do well in the middle class where things like convenience and durability and cost really matter will be far more interesting.

Given that Musk has now moved HIS definition of FSD (full self driving) for the promised 2019 "FSD feature complete" (which isn't ready yet) from TRUE FSD to meaning literally nothing, so much for the claims of a giant true FSD Tesla robo-taxi fleet in 2020 -- or IMO, in the next decade or more.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesl ... all-recap/

According to Musk's definition, a feature-complete FSD system would have a non-zero chance of getting you from your home to your place of business without intervention.

Think about the GALL of this guy. The industry defines FSD as the car reliably driving itself without any need for human oversight. (Below level 5, if the car decides it can't handle the situation (like bad weather), it has to safely pull over and notify the driver). But THIS guy, to keep the fantasy of Tesla and FSD alive, so he can sell it for $thousands per car, has it as driver paying full attention, hands on the wheel at all times, ready to take over at any moment. AND the odds that the car can get you from home to work without human intervention (i.e. preventing crashes) are so low, he has to call them "nonzero". I call that the human driving the car -- oh, and the human is 100% legally responsible for ANY mishaps with a Tesla.

For anyone but Musk, calling that "FSD" would be fraud.

Of course, real world, re the state of Tesla robotic driving, given the absolutely PITIFUL performance of the "smart summon" feature at sub 5 mph speeds, this (nonzero chance) of success is at least a statement in the ballpark of reality, vs. Musk's other Tesla FSD claims thus far.

So it's going to be about selling cars, not science fiction fantasy stories. Outfits like Uber are making good progress toward FSD -- but only in small and strictly geofenced areas like parts of Tempe AZ.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 3 (merged)

Unread postby glaucus » Sat 15 Feb 2020, 18:48:43

Tesla has been moving in the right direction lately (stock-wise).
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 16 Feb 2020, 09:16:51

glaucus wrote:Tesla has been moving in the right direction lately (stock-wise).

I see the stock moving ahead due to Tesla's recent improvement in production and meeting goals (if a lot late in some cases). Opening that factory in China and the introduction of the Cyber truck all point to a profitable future at the lead of the EV industry. I don't see it going to $1500 but I don't think it will tank anytime soon.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 3 (merged)

Unread postby frankthetank » Mon 17 Feb 2020, 22:28:23

Not sure how big of an issue this will be but it would appear with current battery tech..at least with Tesla..they limit supercharging speeds after x amount of hours of supercharging....the Model 3 appears to allow more SC then the S and X. Could be an issue with higher mileage/used Teslas that racked up a lot of hours on the SC network. The reduced rates can really slow down a roadtrip (i've read some threads on it)...obviously if you don't SC much/charge at home it won't be an issue for a very long time.

I wonder if this could cause issue with the Tesla Semi which will need very high charge rates with such massive battery capacity and with trucking speed is money... It appears to be a chemistry issue..so maybe future battery chemistry will work better at high charge rates.. i'd guess Tesla also is worried about warranties and probably wants to make sure they aren't replacing a ton of packs early.

I'm a big ev fan but i think we have to be honest about the limitations of this tech...

I bring this up too because i've noticed a few Youtubers will jump from one supercharger to the next..and ride the high charge curve (5 to 10 % to 50 or 60%) where the charge rate is very high (then tapers off quite a bit as you approach a fully charged battery)... this is generally on long road trips ..so they don't spend much time charging and just take lots of stops as they cross the country... this type of travel will get your charge speeds limited a lot faster then Joe 6 pack and his rare roadtrip/at home charging routine.
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