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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 11 Feb 2020, 20:39:30

Yonnipun wrote:There is no man made global warming. Man can not increase the output of the sun.


There you have it: Someone who can exemplify the statement that for every complex problem there is a simple, obvious and WRONG answer.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 12 Feb 2020, 21:39:00

New paper contradicts global warming is bad for the economy. Basically as the globe warms (and it warms asymmetrically - less cooling at night and in winter) we will use less energy to heat our homes and buildings which is a savings that more than offsets the negatives associated with global warming.

This paper tests the validity of the FUND model’s energy impact functions, and the hypothesis that global warming of 2 °C or more above pre-industrial times would negatively impact the global economy.

If this paper’s findings from the empirical energy consumption data are correct, and if the impact functions for the non-energy sectors are correct, then the overall economic impact of global warming would be beneficial.

Contrary to the FUND energy projection for the period 2000–2100, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) [14,15] empirical data appear to indicate that global warming would reduce US energy expenditure and, therefore, contribute positive economic impacts for the USA. The paper infers that the impacts of global warming on the US economy may be indicative of the impacts on the global economy.


https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/18/3575/htm
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 13 Feb 2020, 08:44:25

Nice one, jed.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 18 Feb 2020, 00:33:01

A World Without Clouds
https://www.quantamagazine.org/cloud-loss-could-add-8-degrees-to-global-warming-20190225/

Now, new findings reported today in the journal Nature Geoscience make the case that the effects of cloud loss are dramatic enough to explain ancient warming episodes like the PETM — and to precipitate future disaster. Climate physicists at the California Institute of Technology performed a state-of-the-art simulation of stratocumulus clouds, the low-lying, blankety kind that have by far the largest cooling effect on the planet. The simulation revealed a tipping point: a level of warming at which stratocumulus clouds break up altogether. The disappearance occurs when the concentration of CO2 in the simulated atmosphere reaches 1,200 parts per million — a level that fossil fuel burning could push us past in about a century, under “business-as-usual” emissions scenarios. In the simulation, when the tipping point is breached, Earth’s temperature soars 8 degrees Celsius, in addition to the 4 degrees of warming or more caused by the CO2 directly.


The article is almost exactly one year old and I was not familiar with it. Something to think about, that a PETM event can happen again.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby jawagord » Tue 18 Feb 2020, 11:04:31

jedrider wrote:A World Without Clouds
https://www.quantamagazine.org/cloud-loss-could-add-8-degrees-to-global-warming-20190225/

Now, new findings reported today in the journal Nature Geoscience make the case that the effects of cloud loss are dramatic enough to explain ancient warming episodes like the PETM — and to precipitate future disaster. Climate physicists at the California Institute of Technology performed a state-of-the-art simulation of stratocumulus clouds, the low-lying, blankety kind that have by far the largest cooling effect on the planet. The simulation revealed a tipping point: a level of warming at which stratocumulus clouds break up altogether. The disappearance occurs when the concentration of CO2 in the simulated atmosphere reaches 1,200 parts per million — a level that fossil fuel burning could push us past in about a century, under “business-as-usual” emissions scenarios. In the simulation, when the tipping point is breached, Earth’s temperature soars 8 degrees Celsius, in addition to the 4 degrees of warming or more caused by the CO2 directly.


The article is almost exactly one year old and I was not familiar with it. Something to think about, that a PETM event can happen again.


It's unlikely CO2 was the cause of PETM, a large CH4 release is more likely the culprit for abrupt warming. Trying to sift through 56 million years of continental drift can make a lot of scenarios look plausible, just not comparable to the present day.

The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is a remarkable climatic and environmental event that occurred 56 Ma ago and has importance for understanding possible future climate change. The Paleocene–Eocene transition is marked by a rapid temperature rise contemporaneous with a large negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE).

However, the carbon source and quantities of CO2 and CH4 greenhouse gases that contributed to global warming are poorly constrained and highly debated.

A massive release of methane clathrates by thermal dissociation (29) has been the most convincing hypothesis to explain the CIE since it was first identified.

Thus, the present study supports the initial idea of Dickens et al. (29) that massive releases of methane from clathrates caused the positive temperature excursion and the CIE during the PETM, at least to a considerable amount.

https://www.pnas.org/content/113/28/7739
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 18 Feb 2020, 13:48:31

The first pulse may have been from methane, but since methane tends not to have a very long lifetime in the atmosphere, you probably need a carbon dioxide feedback to explain the persistence of the heating.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dissident » Wed 19 Feb 2020, 12:15:35

jedrider wrote:A World Without Clouds
https://www.quantamagazine.org/cloud-loss-could-add-8-degrees-to-global-warming-20190225/

Now, new findings reported today in the journal Nature Geoscience make the case that the effects of cloud loss are dramatic enough to explain ancient warming episodes like the PETM — and to precipitate future disaster. Climate physicists at the California Institute of Technology performed a state-of-the-art simulation of stratocumulus clouds, the low-lying, blankety kind that have by far the largest cooling effect on the planet. The simulation revealed a tipping point: a level of warming at which stratocumulus clouds break up altogether. The disappearance occurs when the concentration of CO2 in the simulated atmosphere reaches 1,200 parts per million — a level that fossil fuel burning could push us past in about a century, under “business-as-usual” emissions scenarios. In the simulation, when the tipping point is breached, Earth’s temperature soars 8 degrees Celsius, in addition to the 4 degrees of warming or more caused by the CO2 directly.


The article is almost exactly one year old and I was not familiar with it. Something to think about, that a PETM event can happen again.


This aspect was discussed on this forum over a year ago unless I am getting senile, but overall awareness of this is pathetically small. Here we see, finally, a cloud feedback. And it is of the wrong sign! So instead of some magical offset as hypothesized by Lindzen, we have basically the worst case scenario, loss of cloud albedo, which accelerates the warming dramatically.

The global warming we are entering is going to be worse than the PETM event. We have an unprecedented rate of warming which give us gifts we really do not want. One of them is the flip of the ocean biochemistry into the reducing anoxic regime that will happen within the next 100 years. An issue that is basically never raised.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 19 Feb 2020, 13:33:40

Thanks for that reminder, dis...I guess... :cry:

Other consequences...the aerosol collapse that Guy talked about as prompting a short-term extinction may be upon us (though I'm pretty sure enough of Guy's other calculations were off by enough that the extinction won't happen quite as rapidly as he predicted):

While the linked article indicates that the coronavirus has temporarily reduced China's CO2 emission by a quarter, the article does not point out that the associated anthropogenic aerosol emission are down by even a larger percentage of Chinese emissions; which might be related to the fact that global mean surface temperature anomalies, GMSTA, have been running unusually high in January and February of 2020, during a non-El Nino season. If so, and if a coronavirus pandemic were to occur then we could see GMSTA temporarily spike in 2020 due to an associated abrupt reduction in global anthropogenic aerosol emissions:

Title: "Analysis: Coronavirus has temporarily reduced China’s CO2 emissions by a quarter"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-co ... -a-quarter

Extract: "All told, the measures to contain coronavirus have resulted in reductions of 15% to 40% in output across key industrial sectors. This is likely to have wiped out a quarter or more of the country’s CO2 emissions over the past two weeks, the period when activity would normally have resumed after the Chinese new-year holiday."

(Thanks to aslr at asif for text and links)
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dissident » Wed 19 Feb 2020, 15:10:06

For sure the aerosol loading change will have regional impact on climate with some remote knock on effects. But we really need a global collapse in anthropogenic aerosol emissions to see a strong global signal. The shutdown of coal plants in the USA, Canada and Europe together with tighter regulations on diesel sulfur content is dragging down sulfate emissions outside China but over a longer time span.

https://cfpub.epa.gov/roe/indicator_pdf.cfm?i=22

https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps ... sessment-3

In the USA the reduction in SO2 emissions (which lead directly to sulfate aerosols) has been huge from 1990 to 2014, about 80%. The reductions in Europe have been similar. But China, India and other parts of the world are still pumping a lot of SO2 into the air.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6353995/

Compared to the USA and Europe, the global SO2 emissions are falling much more slowly thanks to India, East Asia and the rest of the world.

But anthropogenic aerosols are not the only issue. Climate itself is changing the profile of natural emissions including from biomass burning and dust emissions reflecting changes in soil moisture and wind energy. So the signal from human activity changes is being obscured by climate change. But this effect will not stop the warming.
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