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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

New EROEI research

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: New EROEI research

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 16:04:25

Do you have a peer-reviewed journal article or book on ETP that you can suggest I read?


Our 2013 paper "Depletion, A determination for the world's petroleum reserve" was submitted to the Royal Academy of Sciences for publication in 2017. It was approved by 2 reviewers, and rejected by the third. The third reviewers' objections were primary due to formatting (the RAC has very strict guidelines). Before we could resubmit some members of our group had health issues. One of those was me, and we never resubmitted.

If you are interested send me a PM here with an email address, and I will forward you a copy. The paper is 67 pages in PDF format.

BW
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Re: New EROEI research

Unread postby Daniel Doom » Mon 10 Feb 2020, 21:00:45

AdamB is one of many people who do not understand the EROEI (aka EROI). Even Jay Hansen did not get it right. You can't just apply it to one particular industry or energy resource, because one energy resource can "subsidize" another when different energy resources command different prices (for example, because of differences in the qualities of the energy resources). Also, EROEI is prior to the hillsgroup thermodynamic hypothesis and does not in any way depend on that hypothesis for its validity. A refutation of the hillsgroup theory in no way constitutes a refutation of EROEI/EROI. Where EROEI becomes critical is when considering the net energy not of a particular energy resource but of the entire energy system in the aggregate.
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Re: New EROEI research

Unread postby aspera » Tue 11 Feb 2020, 14:25:28

The Energy-emissions Trap
by Martin R. Sers & Peter A. Victor
Ecological Economics (2018) 151: 10-21
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.04.004
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1blrA8 ... huEOsdlqHp

Abstract (from article)
The requirement to reduce emissions to avoid potentially dangerous climate change implies a dilemma for societies heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Reducing emissions will necessitate the transition from relatively high EROI dispatchable fossil fuels to a combination of relatively low EROI intermittent renewables and geographically limited non-intermittent renewables. As renewable capacity requires energy to construct there is an initial fossil fuel cost to creating new renewable capacity. An insufficiently rapid transition to renewables will imply a scenario in which it is impossible to avoid either transgressing emissions ceilings or facing energy shortages; we term this the energy-emissions trap. In this paper, we construct a mathematical model, termed EETRAP, that builds the EROI metric and the energy characteristics of renewable generation into a macroeconomic framework. EETRAP is used for simulation analysis to test how differing assumptions about the EROI of intermittent renewables will affect the time-path of renewable investment necessary to escape the energy emissions trap. For all runs of the model, the renewable investment rate by 2050 is significantly larger than the current energy investment rate. For declining intermittent renewable EROI, the renewable investment rate crowds out other forms of investment leading to a declining economic growth rate.

Discussion excerpt (from article)
Therefore, we note that even under relatively ideal conditions facilitating a successful energy transition in the context of declining intermittent renewable EROI may necessitate a large-scale redirection of society's resources to the energy sector. The results of this modelling experiment indicate that it is still possible to transition to renewables, even in the case of declining EROI, though maintaining steady economic growth in such a scenario may not be feasible. However, as economic growth drives increases in emissions, such continued growth may be neither feasible nor desirable if societies takes seriously the goal of escaping the energy-emissions trap.
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Re: New EROEI research

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 11 Feb 2020, 14:36:58

A refutation of the hillsgroup theory in no way constitutes a refutation of EROEI/EROI.


No one has refuted the Etp Model. The Etp function is a Second Law Statement. It would be like refuting the Law of Gravity. Those are comments made by intellectual midgets who wear very constricting underwear. They are distracted from a constant ache right between their eyes. Before the invention of the internet they were known as the town idiots. Now they are known as just idiots, who can't figure out how to get home without their cell phone. There has always been a few of them around.

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