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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 16:12:08

mousepad wrote:It seems a fossil fuel problem is an electricity problem, too.


Eventually, maybe. Not imminent, though.

We burn through all the fracked gas and then we lean back on coal and then after that we'll have to rely solely on renewables (and maybe nukes). That's still quite a big buffer. It's liquid fuel that will be the first casualty (hence the EV thread).

mousepad wrote:Many people don't work well from home. Also many don't want to work from home. A reasonable model seems to be a few days at home, a few days in the office. In that case the saving is not that great. And if you have to heat/AC your home because you're at home now, and the business also heats/ac your office, then there's no saving at all, might even be a net energy increase.


They might work from home more if they could cut their mortgage by 75% or it was the difference between renting and having a bunch of roommates (and watching your step so you don't put your foot into homeless feces) and owning wherever you want. My point is it's a growing option which wasn't really possible until recently. It changes things and don't be surprised if you see society start to adapt accordingly.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-I'm glad Trump is in there now. I think we'll have a vaccine in a couple of months. (mmasters, 3/17/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 16:57:19

Oh you can play with remote thermostat apps to let the house go down to say 50 while your out then bring it back up to 72 or your comfort level just as you arrive but the savings is minor compared to better insulation and the gas you burn in a thirty mile commute. Don't forget the automatic insulated drapes to cover the windows when your out of the room. At the rate we are going your Rumba 3.0 vacuum robot will take over all the appliances and make all those decisions for you. Cook dinner even?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 17:05:11

asg70 wrote:
They might work from home more if they could cut their mortgage by 75% or it was the difference between renting and having a bunch of roommates (and watching your step so you don't put your foot into homeless feces) and owning wherever you want.

I don't see them ever subsidizing your mortgage. More likely your home value and property taxes will go up because it provides you more utility. If you commute on toll roads your cost savings might be $20 per work day or $2080 a year for two days a week. You can apply that to your mortgage payment. Live further out save more.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 30 Jan 2020, 14:42:20

vtsnowedin wrote:
asg70 wrote:
They might work from home more if they could cut their mortgage by 75% or it was the difference between renting and having a bunch of roommates (and watching your step so you don't put your foot into homeless feces) and owning wherever you want.

I don't see them ever subsidizing your mortgage. More likely your home value and property taxes will go up because it provides you more utility. If you commute on toll roads your cost savings might be $20 per work day or $2080 a year for two days a week. You can apply that to your mortgage payment. Live further out save more.

I didn't read this as any subsidizing going on. I read this as if you rarely need to commute, you can live MUCH further out, and re many cities, housing costs could drop TREMENDOUSLY by doing that. Top ten cost of living US cities being blatantly obvious examples.

Now, how many employers will let you only show up for work at the "mother ship" once a week or once a month, etc. very much remains to be seen. In the real tech world, it's not like most managers can figure out who is most productive by looking at them (i.e. are they in their offices). It's what they produce, the quality of it, how well they work with peers, etc. that determines the overall effectiveness of such employees.

...

Hell, I was sick for awhile from stress, etc. Once my management team understood this (and that I was doing something about it), they didn't care WHAT I did, re closing my door and sleeping, what hours I worked, etc. All they cared about was that I could do my work, and that I not kill myself, because they wanted my productivity long term. (That was in the good old days in the late 80's when good companies actually cared about their people and were looking for the good of the company long term AS WELL AS short term).

...

If you build shit then you need to be at the office. If you serve customers at the employer site, then you need to be at the office. For a hell of a lot of jobs, and growing, you can be anywhere, as long as you have good communication tools (which exist now), and the work ethic / self discipline to be productive.

I saw this work for over a decade in many cases at IBM. And yes, there are some folks in such jobs who can't work at home because they lack those drives. Those people end up getting fired for nonperformance over time anyway, once things get highly competitive.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 30 Jan 2020, 19:24:32

If you build crap who needs you in office or at home. And yes some people do not have the work ethic to do valuable work while at home. Perhaps it will become a test of your productivity because if you can not work at home it is more then likely you are not productive at the office and other coworkers are really the ones getting things done.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 03:26:26

vtsnowedin wrote:If you build crap who needs you in office or at home. And yes some people do not have the work ethic to do valuable work while at home. Perhaps it will become a test of your productivity because if you can not work at home it is more then likely you are not productive at the office and other coworkers are really the ones getting things done.

To be clear, by "build crap", I am talking about jobs where things are assembled, and lots of parts, perhaps assembly lines, logistics, etc. are involved. An auto worker at Toyota would be an example. By "office", I am loosely referring to being at your physical work location. Being a food preparer would be another example in the vast majority of cases.

So I'm not talking about a self employed carpenter who might have their shop at home, for example.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 05:49:40

OK but things are not assembled in an office hence my confusion on your point.
Every factory has an office and the ratio of office workers to production line workers varies by industry and product. A construction company might be twenty production workers to one office person, an auto factory ten to one and a financial company might be one production person (probably a janitor) for a hundred office workers.
The office workers can work from home some of the time. The excavator operator, nurse, or janitor can not.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 14:45:29

vtsnowedin wrote:OK but things are not assembled in an office hence my confusion on your point.
Every factory has an office and the ratio of office workers to production line workers varies by industry and product. A construction company might be twenty production workers to one office person, an auto factory ten to one and a financial company might be one production person (probably a janitor) for a hundred office workers.
The office workers can work from home some of the time. The excavator operator, nurse, or janitor can not.

Yup. My bad on using the word "office" there, which is why I clarified it, once I saw your perfectly reasonable response to my doing that.

It's nice to have a civil discussion over a point of confusion or disagreement or a minor wording error, etc., BTW. Thank you for that.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 08:48:14

You are welcome.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 08:54:15

I see GM is going to introduce the new EV hummer in a Superbowl add. I'll be watching that one much more then Trump's and Bloomberg's jousting.
I expect it will be way over the price range I would pay for an EV. The Mid priced Cyber truck is about my limit. Of course the price of gas in two years will change the figures as well as incentive and tax laws they have in place by then. Also Ford will probably have an E150 on the lot by then so comparison shopping will begin.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 17:07:50

vtsnowedin wrote:I see GM is going to introduce the new EV hummer in a Superbowl add. I'll be watching that one much more then Trump's and Bloomberg's jousting.
I expect it will be way over the price range I would pay for an EV. The Mid priced Cyber truck is about my limit. Of course the price of gas in two years will change the figures as well as incentive and tax laws they have in place by then. Also Ford will probably have an E150 on the lot by then so comparison shopping will begin.

It certainly looks like the idea of "green is small and efficient" is being largely tossed out with the modern BEV industry/plans, overall.

With Tesla, it's about fast fast fast, and long range. With cars like the Porsche Tayan and the coming Ford Mach-E SUV (which they're calling part of the "Mustang" brand), the big Rivian trucks, and now a BEV Hummer monstrosity (and others), clearly, whatever is expected to sell will dominate. And as much as the GM Bolt is reviled for its size and looks, and based on its sales, small and efficient doesn't look too great about now, re likely overall market success and of course, profit per vehicle.

Funny how with all the talk of economic doom, this sort of thing is more like the economy screaming how much money lots of customers have to BURN.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 03 Feb 2020, 00:30:01

Outcast_Searcher wrote:It certainly looks like the idea of "green is small and efficient" is being largely tossed out with the modern BEV industry/plans, overall.


Having seen the ads, nobody is trying to sell EVs on the basis of being green anymore. NOBODY. That's because the majority of America just doesn't give a flying f*ck about the planet. It a sad but pragmatic change of course. They're marketing the Hummer to the type of people who are more likely to roll coal on EVs and hybrids than buy one. And these people need to be given a compelling reason to switch, as shitty as their attitudes may be. They're the type of people who would be swayed by a macho athlete's endorsement.

There was also an ad for the Audi eTron that also didn't really push green street creds per se, only pushed an "EVs are the future and ICE vehicles, gas stations, etc... are old tech". The keep up with the Jones' angle.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-I'm glad Trump is in there now. I think we'll have a vaccine in a couple of months. (mmasters, 3/17/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 03 Feb 2020, 00:41:10

If you want to figure out whether EVs will scale up, look closely at news stories about battery factories. Here's one.

https://insideevs.com/news/396102/psa-g ... factories/

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-I'm glad Trump is in there now. I think we'll have a vaccine in a couple of months. (mmasters, 3/17/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 03 Feb 2020, 07:32:31

Well GM's supper bowl hummer ad was non informative. They say wait until May to see a concept vehicle. When they get it on the market they will have both ends of EV production covered with the Bolt and the Hummer. When the consumer soccer mom wants an SUV sized EV they will make that too.
When you have a new product you sell it to fist adopters first and cater to their wishes. Phones with five cameras, doorbells that call the cops etc. With cars it is head turning style and speed along with luxury. Once they fill that demand they will turn to more practical consumers and turn out models they will buy.
In the meantime batteries and range improve past the current 3.3 miles per KWH and the amount of solar and wind power available to charge cars in a non CO2 producing way increases rapidly.
I see in the not to distant future EV cars that have a total lifetime cost per mile less then the ICE vehicles replaced , including the cost of the solar panels that charged it, all with zero CO2 emissions after initial manufacture of the car battery and panels.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 03 Feb 2020, 11:55:44

The picture released of what the Hummer pickup truck will look like is a far cry from what I expected (a really ugly Hummer H2 look alike). In fact other than the weird grill it looks like any other crew cab pickup. The box looks a bit short but that might change. The released version will no doubt look a lot different but I'm encouraged that it looks more like the sort of truck a typical rancher might buy.

The specs they tease seem a bit over the top but who knows. 1,000 HP, 11,500 lg-ft of torque and 0-60 in 3 seconds. And the rumor is it will have a battery 20% larger than the Tesla S. If it washes itself and takes out the garbage I'm buying one!! :wink:
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 03 Feb 2020, 12:20:11

rockdoc123 wrote:The specs they tease seem a bit over the top but who knows. 1,000 HP, 11,500 lg-ft of torque and 0-60 in 3 seconds. And the rumor is it will have a battery 20% larger than the Tesla S. If it washes itself and takes out the garbage I'm buying one!! :wink:

The Rivian T truck can have as much as 180KWH battery pack so expect the Hummer to have that or more for top end units. They need it to haul around the extra weight of a full sized pickup and the towing load capability promised.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 03 Feb 2020, 12:51:06

rockdoc123 wrote:The picture released of what the Hummer pickup truck will look like is a far cry from what I expected


What picture is that? There is no full car reveal, just misleading linkbait amateur renders.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-I'm glad Trump is in there now. I think we'll have a vaccine in a couple of months. (mmasters, 3/17/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 03 Feb 2020, 18:46:32

rockdoc123 wrote:The picture released of what the Hummer pickup truck will look like is a far cry from what I expected (a really ugly Hummer H2 look alike). In fact other than the weird grill it looks like any other crew cab pickup. The box looks a bit short but that might change. The released version will no doubt look a lot different but I'm encouraged that it looks more like the sort of truck a typical rancher might buy.

The specs they tease seem a bit over the top but who knows. 1,000 HP, 11,500 lg-ft of torque and 0-60 in 3 seconds. And the rumor is it will have a battery 20% larger than the Tesla S. If it washes itself and takes out the garbage I'm buying one!! :wink:

Well, at the likely well over $100K I'd expect one to cost with such (real world) specs, how many will they sell? Now of course, they might have scaled down models that sell for "only", $80K or $90K. And GM quality.

I'm still looking for something more like the VW ID3 or similar to show good success / reliability in Europe, and then come to the US. Hopefully that and peers will force makers to make PRACTICAL BEV's for the middle class (with the incentive credits) before too many years pass.

If not, there will be plenty of fine HEV's.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 05 Mar 2020, 13:08:46

Is everyone keeping up with EV news?

GM is inching closer to executing its plans. And I do say inching as its announcements of late are still in the hype category where the immediate future only brings us a mild Bolt refresh, but we'll get there. One reason for the delay is the need for better/cheaper batteries, something that they claim to have achieved with the "Ultium" pouch cell. News story here:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/business ... index.html

Moral of the story is that technological progress continues apace and the clock is ticking on the end of the ICE. It's not a matter of if but when, and that when is approaching faster than doomers think.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-I'm glad Trump is in there now. I think we'll have a vaccine in a couple of months. (mmasters, 3/17/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 05 Mar 2020, 13:16:48

asg70 wrote:Is everyone keeping up with EV news?

GM is inching closer to executing its plans. And I do say inching as its announcements of late are still in the hype category where the immediate future only brings us a mild Bolt refresh, but we'll get there. One reason for the delay is the need for better/cheaper batteries, something that they claim to have achieved with the "Ultium" pouch cell. News story here:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/business ... index.html

Moral of the story is that technological progress continues apace and the clock is ticking on the end of the ICE. It's not a matter of if but when, and that when is approaching faster than doomers think.

Yup, through given GM's history re EV's overall, I'll believe their commitment, esp. re volume (vs. compliance) production, when I see it.

One thing it certainly points to, assuming the Ultium and cost progress re batteries is real, is that the supposed huge Tesla battery moat is about as real as Musk's magical robotaxi fleet claims for 2020 (when in reality, apparently, it might be (depending on the release date) that a Tesla has a "nonzero" chance at getting one to work in a typical commute, without human intervention).

So as an EV fan, the ongoing trend re battery progress we seem to be seeing real world, especially re cost, is great news. And if GM's claims for 400 mile range for a lot of models are even close to reality, so much for the dreaded range anxiety for 99% of car owners, especially as charging continues to be built out.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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