Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Real Inflation 10 percent annually

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Real Inflation 10 percent annually

Unread postby bochen777 » Wed 22 Jan 2020, 23:37:02

https://chapwoodindex.com/

https://www.mathwarehouse.com/calculato ... ulator.php


This means if you are making SIX figures NOW (2020) then in less than 14 years for a standard family of four you will be below the US poverty line!!!! (this is assuming the petrodollar hegemony doesn't completely erode)

Basically in less than half a generation the entire middle class will be wiped out ...
bochen777
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 76
Joined: Sun 18 Dec 2016, 12:01:22

Re: Real Inflation 10 percent annually

Unread postby dissident » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 00:07:03

bochen777 wrote:https://chapwoodindex.com/

https://www.mathwarehouse.com/calculato ... ulator.php


This means if you are making SIX figures NOW (2020) then in less than 14 years for a standard family of four you will be below the US poverty line!!!! (this is assuming the petrodollar hegemony doesn't completely erode)

Basically in less than half a generation the entire middle class will be wiped out ...



In case someone thinks these numbers aren't credible, pay attention to food prices. They are inflating about 10% per year. Maybe some total junkfood composed of sugar is not increasing in cost this fast, but real food is. As far as real estate, the CPI has been engineered to hide the direct inflation of property. Instead some contrived scheme is used to pretend that there is an equivalent rental rate and CPI is assigned based on rental rate dynamics. Utter BS. Over time it is apparent that rents are effectively going up much faster since the size of apartments for similar rates is shrinking. The CPI is totally blind to this as it is blind to downsizing of food containers. The clowns who put out the CPI are too busy with hedonics adjustments that artificially deflate the prices of goods based on new "features". Hedonics adjustments make it impossible to compare, for example TVs, from the past and today in terms of price.
dissident
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5709
Joined: Sat 08 Apr 2006, 02:00:00

Re: Real Inflation 10 percent annually

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 12:08:13

Housing costs has definitely been running at at least 10 percent inflation. Considering that that is the largest outlay of any family, that is what inflation would feel like to them. I'm glad the trade war with China has fizzled. At least, we still have cheap stuff available to us.
User avatar
jedrider
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1665
Joined: Thu 28 May 2009, 09:10:44

Re: Real Inflation 10 percent annually

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 13:34:45

Gee, if only using social media for only 10 cities reflected general reality. :idea:

This is just like all the arm waving re shadowstats. It doesn't take a lot of brain power to look at real world experience in things like ordinary cars, considering technology improvements, housing in general (NOT just in a handful of expensive crowded cities), the overall shopping list at the grocery store, at Amazon, etc. to see that several decades of claims re shadowstats that real inflation is near 9% over several decades is absolute nonsense.

Same thing here, except the data set is highly skewed AND there is little to no discipline, backing of figures, etc. It's just what people emotionally report -- people wound up about inflation, which are almost certain to exaggerate on social media. :roll:

Re the math, yes, re the rule of 72, IF inflation were over 10% overall, then in 14 years, 100K would become worth 25K. (Inflation in the 70's and early 80's was NASTY. In the latter half of '81, supporting myself for the first time, EVERY TIME I went to the grocery store, I noticed prices had risen. THAT was damn scary. That's what real world 15ish percent inflation was like. NOT LIKE TODAY -- not at all, aside from medical and college expenses.

And, in the real world, long term, US stock investments have outpaced inflation by roughly 7% a year for the past 90 years (since good numbers have consistently been available). So it's not like real world inflation puts solid investors in the poor house, if they invest over the course of their career (vs. cherry picking short term results).

Aren't there enough real world issues to be concerned about without constantly looking for the latest made up thing, and throwing it against the wall, hoping it will stick?

What's next? That we should panic because the earth really is flat?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7686
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Real Inflation 10 percent annually

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 07:14:45

Yes, because everyone who sells anything is always trying to see if they can get more for it. If you don't include substitution in the toolkit for dealing with them, then they can raise prices as high as they wish. Economics relies, therefore, upon substitution for it to work. It is expected. Those who merely look at prices, and decry what they see, are taking things too simply. Unless there are forces driving up prices as a whole, across all substitutionary products, then the type of pressure theses inflation hawks talk about doesn't exist.
User avatar
evilgenius
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2756
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Stopped at the border.


Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: EnergyUnlimited and 14 guests