Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Have we hit the peak?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 14:43:31

Yonnipun wrote:Adamb, rocdoc, why do you guys bother with electric car? We have oil for at least century or more as you have said. I would never buy an electric car because of the battery charging time inconvinience.

Yonnipun: For city driving, or for those like me who rarely go more than 100 miles away (and can rent if needed), why is plugging in at home such a big problem? Or plugging in while you eat or shop?

You're bleating the issues from a decade or more ago, for the masses.

Or if you travel monster distances every weak, then perhaps an efficient hybrid would be a good compromise. No plug at all.

Clearly BEV's aren't perfect with something like 2% market penetration. That doesn't make them nonviable over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7567
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 14:46:59

asg70 wrote:
Yonnipun wrote:why do you guys bother with electric car? We have oil for at least century or more as you have said. I would never buy an electric car because of the battery charging time inconvinience.


Well, some of us would like to lower our carbon footprints. It's kind of sad how few here actually give a damn on that front, even those who accept AGW.

+1

Ah the human condition. And when things get bad, then worse re the climate, the folks who couldn't be bothered to try and help at all will loudly bark that it's all everyone else's fault.

OTOH, some of us have conscientiously lowered our carbon footprints dramatically where they can. Too bad the governments aren't rewarding those who do with big carbon taxes (to replace some of the income taxes, for example).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7567
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Darian S » Tue 07 Jan 2020, 18:49:32

asg70 wrote:
Darian S wrote:Massive increases in electricity production would be needed to replace most gasoline. ...it has been said electric vehicle batteries need more than an order magnitude upgrade to be viable for long range trucking.
As for renewables they need days to weeks of battery capacity depending on location. Scaling nuclear will take decades if legislation is not changed to expedite it.


Gee, thanks for that. You're the first one to ever serve us these doomer NPC FUD talking points. Do we have to go round the mulberry bush again on this with you?

Production at practically all locations has peaked and is on the decline. Demand has not only to peak but to contract fast. And that fast contraction has to occur thanks to replacements rapidly coming in not collapse scenario.

There is no move to nuclear at large scale. Batteries havent advanced by order of magnitude. And neither coal nor renewables can currently scale to produce enough additional electricity massively replace oil with electric vehicles.
Darian S
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 99
Joined: Mon 29 Feb 2016, 15:47:02

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 08 Jan 2020, 14:07:23

Darian S wrote: Production at practically all locations has peaked and is on the decline. Demand has not only to peak but to contract fast. And that fast contraction has to occur thanks to replacements rapidly coming in not collapse scenario.

There is no move to nuclear at large scale. Batteries havent advanced by order of magnitude. And neither coal nor renewables can currently scale to produce enough additional electricity massively replace oil with electric vehicles.

Doomers endlessly braying about a supposed trend over a few months or so, and claiming we have peaked, doom will follow, etc. have been continuously wrong for several decades.

Let's give it some time for some perspective and some more solid trend data, and see if we even HAVE peaked, shall we?

Then, if in say 5 years, it's obvious we have peaked, we need to look at the situation. If oil prices have risen a lot and are staying persistently high (indicating a probable supply problem/shortage), THEN expressing the sort of concerns your bringing up will make plenty of sense.

OTOH, even if a (at least short term) global peak is evident, unless prices are high enough to indicate a shortage, SO WHAT? It could be a demand peak re the global economy, or a shift to more electrified transport, for example.

It's ONLY a real concern IF a chronic shortage, relative to global demand occurs, AND is persistent. Unless I'm missing one, that hasn't occurred since the 70's oil embargo by OPEC, and that was from suppliers withholding supply -- NOT any kind of "we can't produce enough to meet demand" issue.

(Brief spikes from various geopolitical concerns excepted, of course.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7567
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Darian S » Thu 09 Jan 2020, 10:25:13

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Darian S wrote:
It's ONLY a real concern IF a chronic shortage, relative to global demand occurs, AND is persistent. Unless I'm missing one, that hasn't occurred since the 70's oil embargo by OPEC, and that was from suppliers withholding supply -- NOT any kind of "we can't produce enough to meet demand" issue.

(Brief spikes from various geopolitical concerns excepted, of course.)


Not all the world has peaked but most has peaked, and it isn't just a few months trend.
Image
Image

That said what I'd like to know is how production declines are calculated. I've heard observed annual 7% decline rates and natural decline rates of 9-10%. Yet production appears to be falling about 1Mbpd/ per year in combined places were its falling. Oil demand is expected to rise to 100+Mbpd by 2030, yet if production falls at 1Mbpd/ per year in most of the world, about 20+Mbpd of new production will be needed.
Darian S
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 99
Joined: Mon 29 Feb 2016, 15:47:02

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 10 Jan 2020, 01:41:41

According to the data in this report from EIA https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php there was a tiny tiny decline in world oil production in 2019 from 100.86 to 100.83 million barrels/day. This is too close in time and too small a decline for me to call it "THE peak", but it marks 2018 as a peak along what might be a bumpy plateau.

I notice that the EIA expects production to increase in 2020, but they have a history of being about as wrong in their future projects as most doomers are (but overstating rather than understating future production) :oops:
So we have to wait for more data. One of their primary assumptions was that world GDP would grow faster in 2020 than in 2019, so we will have to see how this holds up.
EdwinSm
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 578
Joined: Thu 07 Jun 2012, 03:23:59

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 16:16:35

EdwinSm wrote:According to the data in this report from EIA https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php there was a tiny tiny decline in world oil production in 2019 from 100.86 to 100.83 million barrels/day. This is too close in time and too small a decline for me to call it "THE peak", but it marks 2018 as a peak along what might be a bumpy plateau.

I notice that the EIA expects production to increase in 2020, but they have a history of being about as wrong in their future projects as most doomers are (but overstating rather than understating future production) :oops:
So we have to wait for more data. One of their primary assumptions was that world GDP would grow faster in 2020 than in 2019, so we will have to see how this holds up.

Right. You can't look at the short term for ANY volatile thing and claim that it accurately calls the long term. Peakers have been playing that game for decades, and been proven wrong consistently thus far.

Production has never moved up in a straight line.

The fight over AGW comes to mind as an example. Environmental fighting over things like regional animal populations is another. Or hell, thousands of examples of short term chartists claiming they know what the markets will do because of "technical indicators". And yet, in the face of long term trends and results, such games mean little to nothing.

Why would crude oil production be any different? (Outside the doom-o-sphere, of course).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7567
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 16:27:06

Darian S wrote:Not all the world has peaked but most has peaked, and it isn't just a few months trend.
Image
Image

OTOH:
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

The 2017 through 2020 global liquid fuels trend from the EIA for both consumption and production is increasing every year. (As long as gasoline can be created from NG and more gasoline is available, it's not a supply problem for things like transport).

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market- ... ember-2019

And if oil production is being constrained by OPEC due to fears of oversupply, that doesn't exactly mean a geological constraint has been reached on global supply. Such changes are short term economic jockeying -- not a long term "supply shortage".

Faced with potential oversupply in early 2020, OPEC+ countries agreed to deepen existing cuts to 2.1 mb/d in 1Q20. This implies a reduction in supply of 500 kb/d from current levels. Despite the additional curbs and a reduction in our forecast of 2020 non-OPEC supply growth to 2.1 mb/d, global oil inventories could build by 0.7 mb/d in 1Q20. In November, global oil supplies held steady at 101.36 mb/d, down 1.2 mb/d y-o-y.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7567
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 21:32:05

The problem isn't so much a peak in production as rising costs.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5002
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 10:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 19:11:52

ralfy wrote:The problem isn't so much a peak in production as rising costs.

So does that "problem" come to light when the majors aren't making large profits?

Are you talking a long term or short term thing?

Because when I do searches for oil company profits, I'm not exactly seeing signs of serious doom. Especially with WTI crude hanging around near $60 in recent weeks.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39413

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/O ... -2019.html
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7567
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 11:40:32

Gail Tverberg may be calling a peak as well:

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/01/08/e ... recession/

It seems like we may be at the long awaited moment, and there's practically nobody left to witness it except a few of us in this forum.

Woo hoo!
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7320
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Previous

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests