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US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 15:08:15

asg70 wrote:
Newfie wrote:I don’t watch videos, I read. Bandwidth limited.


That's going to be an increasing limitation. We're in a streaming video world.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/20/everyon ... exico.html

And yet, of course, there's going to be a place for BOTH for thinking people for a very long time.

For one example:

Movies are great entertainment. But how often are they REMOTELY close to the deep, thoughtful experience of reading a good novel they are based on? In my experience, a flat zero. Some, to their credit, do a good job of presenting the overall feel / message of a good novel, at best. Many (I'd say most), don't even manage to do THAT.

Or how about documentaries? Same idea, relative to good books on the same subject.

And then there's deep knowledge/ideas, like math, science, history, art, etc. I love Khan Academy, for example (and would have done better in Calculus if I had access to it in college), but don't think that will ever truly replace a serious book on a math or science topic I really want to learn a lot about.

...

Besides, there's a big difference between people who read a lot (i.e. me) and people who NEVER watch videos. I took Newfie's quote to mean that he prefers to read vs. mindless watching video for his entertainment and perhaps news. That doesn't mean he would never watch a video news piece, as I interpret things.

Hell, I watch a LOT of news on video overall (on the web), but I haven't watched television except when "captive", like at a friend's house, for maybe 5 years now. And haven't missed it a bit, given Netflix, Amazon Prime, etc.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 15:11:40

There have been mass protests in 25 nations the last year. Only in Sudan and Bolivia were the governments overthrown when the police and army turned against their governments.

I guess it's all about who holds the guns and who they are loyal to that decides how things will turn out?

"You can build a throne with bayonets, but you can't sit there for long". Yeltsin
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 15:37:53

What I thought was GERY interesting was that it was the the head of the Iranian GUARD who said (paraphrasing) “We told the clerics about the accident the same morning.” Which placed the blame more in the clerics rather than the hapless Guard who made a “simple but tragic mistake.”

So I took that as a sign of a serious rift between the 2 factions. Which do I support? Neither. Which would be better for the USA? No clue.

Perhaps with out Solimani around forces in the guards feel they can topped the clerics. Will they set up a democratic government or a military dictatorship or ????? No clue.

I do think it’s dangerous times for the ruling clerics.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 16:05:35

Reposting from a different open forum.

Interview with a Russian expert of radar anti-aircraft missile systems
I have found a couple of interesting articles on the Novaya Gazeta (on their website, second article under: /articles/2020/01/11/83411-vse-taki-obezyana-s-granatoy, I don't know if I can post whole link here). They contain 2 interviews with Andrey Gorbachevsky, a Russian engineer and developper of radar anti-aircraft missile systems who worked for the Russian State Scientific Research Institute of Aviation Systems (GosNIIAS). That is: a person familiar with the Tor system.
It's clear throughout the articles that it's difficult for him to accept what happened, so much so that he says: "No one and under no circumstances could mistake a passenger plane for a cruise missile. To do that it would take not just a "monkey with a grenade", but a DRUNK "monkey with a grenade". He says the flight delay in his opinion couldn't have made any kind of difference, as "the plane took off from a civilian airfield and went along a standard track. A passenger plane cannot fly randomly, it goes along a dedicated corridor", plus "it was taking off", "that alone" would have told the crew commander (the one who gives the authorization to fire the missile, as he says, adding that without this authorization it is impossible to launch the missile) that it obviuosly was a passanger plane. He adds that after 20 seconds from take off the airplane would have been visible on the primary 'air search' radar (the TOR system has 2 radars, the second is for missile guidance) and for approximately 6 minutes it would have created a trace: so "it was clear where it was coming from" (i.e. the well-known civilian airport). He adds: the crew commander "evaluates the signal strength from the target by the magnitude of the mark (i.e. on the radar): if it's a large or small target. The indicators show a bright or dim mark. Simply put, the commander should have seen something big fly. From a large passenger plane, the mark will be ten times brighter than from a military target" (i.e. like a fighter plane). A cruise missile "has a very low reflecting power. The brightness of this point is no longer ten, but a hundred times less bright than that of a commercial airplane. And a cruise missile flies at a very low altitude, in order to avoid being detected... we are speaking about just tens of meters. And the Iranians shot down a huge plane flying at an altitude of 2400 meters. How can this be confused? The difference is where to direct the beam (i.e. for the launch): up to the sky or down along the earth".
Despite being so shocked by such an incredible 'mistake' (this shows, he says "the degree of collapse of its (=Iran's) air defense. I can't remember a bigger mistake in the history of air defense"), he concludes that the crew must have been terrified by the idea of the American raid and adds "they didn't see anything, they just took and fired".
So his take.
Edit: the radar expert says the guidance launch beam is so narrow (1 degree) that the passanger plane was aimed at (i.e. not possible that "something else" was targeted and then the missile hit it by mistake, he says). Regarding 'automated' mode for the Tor: he excludes that ("No, launching a rocket is not possible without an indication of the crew commander").
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby derhundistlos » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 16:54:45

"So much for the claim by the Ds that killing Solimanni would unite all the Iranians. They were wrong, as usual."

Shut-up, Planters Wart, with your gross generalizations. I see that you moved over to this side after having been run off the Member's Comment section for posting one too many stupid comments.

Soleimani was visiting Iraq on a previously announced formal state visit, which explains why his Iraqi counterpart was also killed in the assassination via missile strike as the motorcade left the international airport.

It would be as if the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs received an invitation from the UK to attend meetings with high ranking UK military officials. After flying into London's Gatwick Airport, the chairman was greeted by his UK counterpart and while departing Gatwick the Iranians launched a missile killing the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs along with other high ranking UK military officers. Brilliant. This was done by Trump pandering to the neo-con, chicken-hawk element of the Republican party. Blood is what they wanted and that's what Trump delivered.

In 1988 a US Naval vessel shot down an Iranian Air Airbus A300 while flying in Iranian airspace killing all 290 passengers on board.

Some members of the US Naval Cruiser that shot the plane down were later awarded medals, and the United States has never formally apologized for the event.

The fact of the matter, regardless of how you try and spin it, is the assassination of a popular military commander did serve to unify the nation as it would in any country.

The "thousands" of protesters and "massive protests" you routinely cite are in fact hundreds. There is no mass uprising. Period. Next year at this time nothing will have changed in Iran.

I remember during the 2016 presidential campaign Trump's many promises to end stupid wars in the Middle East. More than three years later and nothing has changed except Trump increased troop levels in Afghanistan and now this. The Iranians, unlike Trump, are patient and cautious. They will wait for the right moment to strike.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51079965
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 17:27:44

derhundistlos wrote:Shut-up, Plant....


Don't you mean stop typing? I mean, this is website....no words are actually being spoken.

derhundistlos wrote:... stupid.....


You're the one who thinks we're speaking when what we're actually doing is typing. Get a clue, dude.

derhundistlos wrote:The fact of the matter, regardless of how you try and spin it, is the assassination of a popular military commander did serve to unify the nation as it would in any country.


Obviously you are unaware that there are massive pro-democracy demonstrations against the regime going on in Iran right now. Students are in the street chanting "death to Khameni" and calling for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.

A lot of people in Iran hated Solemanni. He and his al Quds force are the ones who shoot demonstrators in the streets to quell dissent against the Islamic regime.....these latest demos are about the third time the Iranian regime has had to resort to gunfire on crowds to quell dissent. So OF COURSE Suleimanni's death wouldn't unify the country....there are a lot of people in Iran who are celebrating his death and applauding the US for killing Suleimanni.

One clear example of this is at the University of Tehran where these latest pro-democracy demonstrations started. The Mullahs ordered huge American and Israeli flags to be painted on the ground at the entrance to the University so that students would have to walk on the painted flags as they went in and out of the university. But the students are carefully walking just along the edge of the flags right now, so show their disagreement with the anti-US policies of the Iranian Islamic state. It just goes to show that even in an Islamic police state like Iran, people will form their own opinion in spite of the regimes anti-US propaganda.

Image
Iranian students carefully walking AROUND the US flag the Islamic state had painted on the ground at the entrance to their university

Cheers!
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 13:38:08

The Iranians, unlike Trump, are patient and cautious. They will wait for the right moment to strike.


The vast majority of the American people hold no grudge against the people of Iran! Neither do we wish that harm should fall upon you. We wish you the best of luck in your trials against a tyrannical regime. Like us, all you strive for is peace and prosperity for yours, and family. We wish to extend an olive branch toward your ancient, and enduring society. May God cast a light upon your shadows.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 14:37:44

Iran is mostly a case-study of demographic shift thanks to the depopulation of the older generation during the Iran/Iraq war. The younger demographic tend to be more sympathetic towards the west. They didn't live through the Shah or the revolution itself so it doesn't mean as much to them.

As for Plant, he can't contribute to any thread regardless of topic without trying to make a dig at Obama or the Democrats. He's got a one-track mind and it is grating in the extreme.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 14:48:07

shortonoil wrote:
The Iranians, unlike Trump, are patient and cautious. They will wait for the right moment to strike.


The vast majority of the American people hold no grudge against the people of Iran! Neither do we wish that harm should fall upon you. We wish you the best of luck in your trials against a tyrannical regime. Like us, all you strive for is peace and prosperity for yours, and family. We wish to extend an olive branch toward your ancient, and enduring society. May God cast a light upon your shadows.

^+1
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 16:46:33

Newfie wrote:Reposting from a different open forum.

Interview with a Russian expert of radar anti-aircraft missile systems
I have found a couple of interesting articles on the Novaya Gazeta (on their website, second article under: /articles/2020/01/11/83411-vse-taki-obezyana-s-granatoy, I don't know if I can post whole link here). They contain 2 interviews with Andrey Gorbachevsky, a Russian engineer and developper of radar anti-aircraft missile systems who worked for the Russian State Scientific Research Institute of Aviation Systems (GosNIIAS). That is: a person familiar with the Tor system.
It's clear throughout the articles that it's difficult for him to accept what happened, so much so that he says: "No one and under no circumstances could mistake a passenger plane for a cruise missile. To do that it would take not just a "monkey with a grenade", but a DRUNK "monkey with a grenade". He says the flight delay in his opinion couldn't have made any kind of difference, as "the plane took off from a civilian airfield and went along a standard track. A passenger plane cannot fly randomly, it goes along a dedicated corridor", plus "it was taking off", "that alone" would have told the crew commander (the one who gives the authorization to fire the missile, as he says, adding that without this authorization it is impossible to launch the missile) that it obviuosly was a passanger plane. He adds that after 20 seconds from take off the airplane would have been visible on the primary 'air search' radar (the TOR system has 2 radars, the second is for missile guidance) and for approximately 6 minutes it would have created a trace: so "it was clear where it was coming from" (i.e. the well-known civilian airport). He adds: the crew commander "evaluates the signal strength from the target by the magnitude of the mark (i.e. on the radar): if it's a large or small target. The indicators show a bright or dim mark. Simply put, the commander should have seen something big fly. From a large passenger plane, the mark will be ten times brighter than from a military target" (i.e. like a fighter plane). A cruise missile "has a very low reflecting power. The brightness of this point is no longer ten, but a hundred times less bright than that of a commercial airplane. And a cruise missile flies at a very low altitude, in order to avoid being detected... we are speaking about just tens of meters. And the Iranians shot down a huge plane flying at an altitude of 2400 meters. How can this be confused? The difference is where to direct the beam (i.e. for the launch): up to the sky or down along the earth".
Despite being so shocked by such an incredible 'mistake' (this shows, he says "the degree of collapse of its (=Iran's) air defense. I can't remember a bigger mistake in the history of air defense"), he concludes that the crew must have been terrified by the idea of the American raid and adds "they didn't see anything, they just took and fired".
So his take.
Edit: the radar expert says the guidance launch beam is so narrow (1 degree) that the passanger plane was aimed at (i.e. not possible that "something else" was targeted and then the missile hit it by mistake, he says). Regarding 'automated' mode for the Tor: he excludes that ("No, launching a rocket is not possible without an indication of the crew commander").
Reply



Another factor to consider is that the Ukrainian jet was the 9th jet to take off that morning down that same runway.

One after another, eight jets rumbled down airstrip and slowly climbed into the air, gaining altitude along the exact same flight path.

But the ninth plane....the one with a large number of Iranian ex-pats on it......that plane gets blasted out of the sky by not one but two anti-aircraft missiles, even though there was no way it could be confused with an incoming cruise missile, especially after 8 similar planes had already flown out that same morning along the exact same flight path.

Hopefully this will all get an open and complete investigation, but it seems unlikely under the current regime in the Islamic Republic, especially since the current regime spent three days lying about what had happened and actively trying to cover it their culpability for a missile attack on a civilian passenger jet by bulldozing the site and removing plane debris before outside investigators could get there. I fully understand the fury of the pro-democracy demonstrators. It must be maddening to live in a medieval-stye theocracy and be ruled by fundamentalist Muslim clerics who seem hell-bent on making Iran a pariah state.

Cheers!
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"The people in power should listen.....its them I'm criticizing" Greta Thunberg, 12/4/19
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 02:20:18

Soleimani worked in the shadows most of his career. No one knew of him. He turned him self into a public person only the last few years as the IRGC started to seek political power.

He was respected and loved among the people, but he was also feared and hated among other Iranians.

He was feared among the Mullahs because of his political ambitions. Trump did the Mullahs a favour by killing Soleimani.

IRGC and the Quds Force wanted revenge. The Mullahs gave them only the Ayn Al Asad base as a target and then warned Iraq about the attack so that the soldiers could evacuate and take cover.
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