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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby Pops » Wed 25 Sep 2019, 17:04:47

maybe, maybe nano-drones instead
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 27 Sep 2019, 15:33:39

Pops, funny you said that about warblers and wrens. I did identify a fierce wren family who took residence in our year a couple summers ago. Recently, I thought I say them again, but I didn't get a good look at them. Today I saw what I knew to be a warbler, and thought, maybe that's what I saw a few days ago...They can be a bit hard to distinguish in flight--both are fast and small.

Meanwhile, back to die off:


More than half of native European trees face extinction, warns study


Ash, elm and rowan among trees threatened by pests and pollution, says biodiversity report


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... arns-study

(selected quotes)

More than half of Europe’s endemic trees are threatened with extinction as invasive diseases, pests, pollution and urban development take a growing toll on the landscape, according to a study.

“I’ve been keeping an eye on it over the past five years. Last year, I began to get quite worried. This year, huge areas are experiencing a dieback and it’s not just affecting saplings like it was before. Now it’s whole big trees. I drove in some parts of Pembrokeshire recently, and every five or 10 metres there was an ash tree dead or dying. This is a major problem – way worse than I expected it to be.”

The study of trees is part of a wider European red list that examines the status of overlooked species in order to determine priorities for conservation. It found 20-50% of terrestrial molluscs, shrubs and bryophytes, such as moss and liverworts, are threatened with extinction due to a loss of wild areas, expanded agriculture and climate change. Although these species are unglamorous and rarely attract attention, they play a vital role in food production and other natural life support systems through oxygen production, nutrient recycling and soil regeneration.

"Thus, once these species are lost from Europe, they are gone for ever,”

“We are seeing our natural environment being eaten away,” he said. It’s such a wide scale problem, rather like climate"
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby Sinclarsorus » Fri 27 Sep 2019, 16:16:48

I think the die-off will begin economically in banking in regard to all agriculture loans and operations. Food will be scarce near the end of economically available oil supplies. Most fertilizers and farm operations like pesticides and farming equipment need lots of oil to operate. Its almost 10 pounds of oil for every pound of food from oil drilling to food on your plate. So the Ag business will be the Achilles Heal of Humanity in the end. There may even be wars over food and oil sources near the end if not already. But my dad use to hear stuff like this as a kid and he was born over a hundred years ago and it never happened in his time. So maybe not ours either, hard to tell at this point.

Check out this YouTube: (Bill Gaede on The Extinction of Man)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8vNU_HgnZU

Its along the lines I'm thinking here. This is the most Doom and Gloom version of Agriculture failing.
Bill Gaede lives in Germany and a free-lance Physicist and was sent to jail for espionage in the past. But has a lot of cool theories in Physics and Economics.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 07:36:23

dohboi wrote:Today I saw what I knew to be a warbler, and thought, maybe that's what I saw a few days ago...They can be a bit hard to distinguish in flight--both are fast and small.


Soon you will only have the wrens, the warblers are on the move southward.
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby Cottager » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 09:44:56

Sinclarsorus wrote:I think the die-off will begin economically in banking in regard to all agriculture loans and operations. Food will be scarce near the end of economically available oil supplies. Most fertilizers and farm operations like pesticides and farming equipment need lots of oil to operate. Its almost 10 pounds of oil for every pound of food from oil drilling to food on your plate. So the Ag business will be the Achilles Heal of Humanity in the end. There may even be wars over food and oil sources near the end if not already. But my dad use to hear stuff like this as a kid and he was born over a hundred years ago and it never happened in his time. So maybe not ours either, hard to tell at this point.

Check out this YouTube: (Bill Gaede on The Extinction of Man)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8vNU_HgnZU

Its along the lines I'm thinking here. This is the most Doom and Gloom version of Agriculture failing.
Bill Gaede lives in Germany and a free-lance Physicist and was sent to jail for espionage in the past. But has a lot of cool theories in Physics and Economics.


I'm afraid you're wrong, to get one pound of food probably needs ~10 more energy in energetic terms, but oil is more concentrated form of energy, so the numbers are probably ~1:3 by mass.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby Azothius » Mon 30 Dec 2019, 17:36:46

2019 Gray Whale Unusual Mortality Event along the West Coast

https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national ... west-coast

Since January 1, 2019, elevated gray whale strandings have occurred along the west coast of North America from Mexico through Alaska. This event has been declared an Unusual Mortality Event (UME).

Full or partial necropsy examinations were conducted on a subset of the whales. Preliminary findings in several of the whales have shown evidence of emaciation. These findings are not consistent across all of the whales examined, so more research is needed.


Note: the following charts do not include numbers for Mexico and Canada. For 2019 they were 81 and 11, respectively.


Image


Image


2019: 214
2000: 368
1999: 283
US Avg: 35?
NA Avg: 41?



Eastern North Pacific gray whale unusual mortality event, 1999-2000

https://www.afsc.noaa.gov/techmemos/nmfs-afsc-150.htm

In 1999, the number of gray whale strandings documented along the west coast of North America increased to approximately seven times the annual mean of 41 animals reported between 1995 and 1998. The unusually high number (283) of stranded whales

The number of stranded animals remained high in 2000, with 368 carcasses reported (a nine-fold increase over the 1995-98 average).

In 2001 and 2002, however, total strandings decreased to 21 and 26 animals, respectively.

Most of the strandings in 1999 and 2000 occurred in Mexican waters during the winter season.



Headline from June 2019:

So Many Dead Whales Are Washing Up On The West Coast That NOAA Is Pleading For

Helphttps://www.huffpost.com/entry/dead ... 4a1211ab62
Ragnarok is Coming
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 12:31:47

Speaking of die-offs/extinctions, some might find this interesting:

How the extinction of ice age mammals may have forced us to invent civilization

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/01/how-th ... ilisation/

Why did we take so long to invent civilisation? Modern Homo sapiens first evolved roughly 250,000 to 350,000 years ago. But initial steps towards civilisation – harvesting, then domestication of crop plants – began only around 10,000 years ago, with the first civilisations appearing 6,400 years ago.

For 95% of our species’ history, we didn’t farm, create large settlements or complex political hierarchies. We lived in small, nomadic bands, hunting and gathering. Then, something changed.

We transitioned from hunter-gatherer life to plant harvesting, then cultivation and, finally, cities. Strikingly, this transition happened only after the ice age megafauna – mammoths, giant ground sloths, giant deer and horses – disappeared. The reasons humans began farming still remain unclear, but the disappearance of the animals we depended on for food may have forced our culture to evolve.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 17:37:07

dohboi wrote:Speaking of die-offs/extinctions, some might find this interesting:

How the extinction of ice age mammals may have forced us to invent civilization

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/01/how-th ... ilisation/

Or the assumption it was only about 10,000 years ago is wrong.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 144709.htm

First evidence of farming in Mideast 23,000 years ago

Or it took that long for our brains to evolve enough for such practices to become widespread. Just as we now think it took a hell of a lot of time for practical human speech to evolve.

https://www.the-scientist.com/features/ ... ial--64351

...

Seriously, there's a hell of a lot more that we DON'T know than we DO know about the times before recorded human history. There are all sorts of theories that can and will be hatched about how/why certain things happened. SOME of them might even turn out to be correct, to whatever extent we can reliably count on the evidence we have.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 10 Sep 2020, 09:46:35

The mass dieoff of the non-human world continues apace :/


https://www.wwf.org.uk/sites/default/fi ... report.pdf


The global Living Planet Index continues to decline. It shows an
average 68% decrease in population sizes of mammals, birds,
amphibians, reptiles and fish between 1970 and 2016.

A 94% decline in the LPI for the tropical subregions of the Americas is the
largest fall observed in any part of the world.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 10 Sep 2020, 10:04:50

Dohboi,

Welcome back.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 10 Sep 2020, 10:22:22

dohboi wrote:The mass dieoff of the non-human world continues apace :/


https://www.wwf.org.uk/sites/default/fi ... report.pdf


The global Living Planet Index continues to decline. It shows an
average 68% decrease in population sizes of mammals, birds,
amphibians, reptiles and fish between 1970 and 2016.

A 94% decline in the LPI for the tropical subregions of the Americas is the
largest fall observed in any part of the world.



Notice the parallel? Our civilization goes into decline right along with the biosphere. They mirror each other. Should we be surprised?
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 11 Sep 2020, 16:02:51

Thanks, Newf!

Hoping you are sailing safely, literally, and figuratively!
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Fall of mankind, homo sapiens thinking to know it all.

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 08:43:49

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
dohboi wrote:Speaking of die-offs/extinctions, some might find this interesting:

How the extinction of ice age mammals may have forced us to invent civilization

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/01/how-th ... ilisation/

Or the assumption it was only about 10,000 years ago is wrong.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 144709.htm

First evidence of farming in Mideast 23,000 years ago

Or it took that long for our brains to evolve enough for such practices to become widespread. Just as we now think it took a hell of a lot of time for practical human speech to evolve.

https://www.the-scientist.com/features/ ... ial--64351

...

Seriously, there's a hell of a lot more that we DON'T know than we DO know about the times before recorded human history. There are all sorts of theories that can and will be hatched about how/why certain things happened. SOME of them might even turn out to be correct, to whatever extent we can reliably count on the evidence we have.


Thanks for the links on the topic of being civil :roll:
Always interesting, read somewhere a theory that our brains evolved from throwing things at a target, thought being a byproduct that made us do the things we done, make other species go extinct......
Hunter gatherers had bigger brains though, 10 % or so and then what made us be self domesticated? Give up personal power in a society without kings, without a few controlling the many?
Bet you had leaders, but no palace to store wealth or hoard food as you fear lacking something.
Bet they had a link to the unknown, depicted in cave paintings.
Anyway, the topic of topics, everything we have a word for, the universe, came from that shift in time.

The study focuses on the discovery of the first weed species at the site of a sedentary human camp on the shore of the Sea of Galilee. It was published in PLOS ONE and led by Prof. Ehud Weiss of Bar-Ilan University in collaboration with Prof. Marcelo Sternberg of the Department of Molecular Biology and Ecology of Plants at TAU's Faculty of Life Sciences and Prof. Ofer Bar-Yosef of Harvard University, among other colleagues.

"While full-scale agriculture did not develop until much later, our study shows that trial cultivation began far earlier than previously believed, and gives us reason to rethink our ancestors' capabilities," said Prof. Sternberg. "Those early ancestors were more clever and more skilled than we knew."


Discovery of the first weed :-D
I think you can proof things all by yourself, just shut up thinking and see how stupid our collective way of perception is.
You have to believe in it to make it work and to keep on living though.
A mind experiment, very Matrix.
We are not born stupud, we are made, forced into stupidity by peer pressure and revieuwing, self reflection.
Forced out of the garden, not expelled.
Only one that can verify, confirm and that is you.
How smart is it to have an internal war, fight with yourself till you die?
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 09:07:26

Good conversation. Thanks guys.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 10:55:53

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Or it took that long for our brains to evolve enough for such practices to become widespread. Just as we now think it took a hell of a lot of time for practical human speech to evolve.

https://www.the-scientist.com/features/ ... ial--64351

Or rather devolve.
Within last ~10000 years our brains got about 10-12% smaller.
Farmer does not need as much brain as H-G and modern urban dweller will do with even less than a farmer.
It can be now observed everywhere, particularly in 1st world.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 17:22:36

Yeah, I think hunter/gatherers knew lots about cultivating plants (including weed! :) ) long before ag started.

Its just that they got so good at hunting, that large wild animal numbers started to plummet. Then they had to turn to cultivation, which they likely knew and had practiced on very small scales for a long time, more and more to insure that there were enough calories to keep from starving.

But this ended up enabling big pop increases, and of course the hunting (and some 'gathering') continued to deplete the wildlife populations. So there was no possibility for most in any numbers to 'head back to the hills.'

We have been encultured to believe that our most important role is to control (non-human) nature. But our real main task in life is to learn to control our individual and collective 'natures,' especially our propensities to over-consume and to over-propogate, to the detriment of nearly all other life forms, and of course eventually to our own demise.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 13 Sep 2020, 14:55:32

dohboi wrote:We have been encultured to believe that our most important role is to control (non-human) nature. But our real main task in life is to learn to control our individual and collective 'natures,' especially our propensities to over-consume and to over-propogate, to the detriment of nearly all other life forms, and of course eventually to our own demise.

Top predators have something in common with Stalin's security chiefs.
Once you became one, you are automatically endangered species, on your way out.
Russian security chiefs were ending up in front of firing squad and top predators sooner or later are ending up extinct. Funnily they are not being superseeded by other even more fearsome predators but just go extinct.
Becoming one is also a one way ticket. Nature has her own firing squad, it seems.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 13 Sep 2020, 16:23:24

Interesting point about Soviet security.

But as to your general claim, it doesn't seem to apply to sharks, who have been around in one form or another for nearly half a billion years.

I do seem to remember someone making a claim about humans evolving into top predators, because of tool use, and maybe domestication of fire and the development of language.

But we were kinda bad at it. Outside of Africa, at least, we killed off other top predators, but didn't 'manage' the remaining herds very well, generally. I can't remember the reference, but it seemed interesting (and I may be mis-remembering the line of argument here).
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 13 Sep 2020, 16:57:12

dohboi wrote:Interesting point about Soviet security.

But as to your general claim, it doesn't seem to apply to sharks, who have been around in one form or another for nearly half a billion years.

Have thought about them, yet Megalodon is gone...
Great White in his kingdom is superior (albeit can fall prey of orca) but against humans it stands no chance.
Now humans are universal top predator - and perhaps already getting attention of Mother Natures firing squad.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 14 Sep 2020, 21:16:36

Meanwhile, extinction denial is on the rise.

https://news.mongabay.com/2020/09/biolo ... onspiracy/
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