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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 30 Dec 2019, 11:53:07

dolanbaker wrote:
EdwinSm wrote:
The $64billion question is can they make money on it.

If the demand is there (which it is), they will.

Not necessarily! Demand is just one of the ingredients needed to make a profit. You must also have raw materials, energy, labor ,management and plant and equipment as well as supply chains and transportation. Then there are the things that hold you back such as government regulation, taxation, favoritism and other corruption. Weakness in any of these can turn the bottom line from black to red.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 30 Dec 2019, 16:04:30

vtsnowedin wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
EdwinSm wrote:
The $64billion question is can they make money on it.

If the demand is there (which it is), they will.

Not necessarily! Demand is just one of the ingredients needed to make a profit. You must also have raw materials, energy, labor ,management and plant and equipment as well as supply chains and transportation. Then there are the things that hold you back such as government regulation, taxation, favoritism and other corruption. Weakness in any of these can turn the bottom line from black to red.

Tesla hasn't yet been profitable annually. It's recent "profitable" quarters seen to be marred by obvious accounting games, like having such a low Capital Expense allowance, that it's not sustainable over time. (Things break, wear out, technology changes, etc. But it does make it easier to claim they are "cash flow positive", etc).

Tesla has had things pretty much all its way re very little competition. That landscape will apparently change meaningfully in 2020 and 20201, and especially beyond.

I think it will be very interesting seeing how profitable they are when they're facing real competition from Ford like the Mach E Mustang, VW, etc. And even the new and better HEV's starting with 2020. If I needed to buy a car soon, an HEV would certainly be a very likely candidate.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 06:49:12

As a company Tesla in now more valuable than Volkswagen. :razz: :roll:

Tesla has displaced Volkswagen as the world's second most valuable carmaker, after a dramatic rise in share price pushed its market value to more than $100bn (£76.1bn).

The milestone sets the stage for chief Elon Musk to collect billions in pay tied to hitting that target.

Tesla's share price has more than doubled since October, when the firm reported a rare quarterly profit.

Shares rose 4% on Wednesday, making its valuation second only to Toyota.

.....
Some analysts say the rise in price reflects Tesla's performance in recent months, during which it has opened a factory in Shanghai and met its production goals.

This month, Tesla said it had delivered more than 367,500 cars last year - up 50% from 2018. Investors expect the new factory to act as a springboard that will allow it to capture more of the Chinese market.


I am not sure given the volume of vehicles produced that it deserves 2nd place!

Despite the increase, Tesla's sales remain small compared to those of its competitors.

Volkswagen delivered almost 11 million vehicles last year, while Toyota sold more than 9 million in the first 11 months of 2019.


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51214824
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 10:12:17

I had a conversation the other day with an investment banker as to if he saw some reason for Tesla shares to suddenly move much higher. His comment was fundamentally there was no reason but it could be because it was so heavily shorted previously and if those shorts were positions held by hedge funds they may have decided to close them out, perhaps thinking the worst was over for Tesla. My own thinking (and I have no evidence of this) is given Musk has shown continual disregard for laws that pertain to trading and disclosure around publicly held companies I wouldn't be surprised that he has orchestrated a rise behind the scenes. Could he have had companies that are held at arms length waltz in and buy up shares in order to move the market? He would likely see this as a means of avoiding share buyback disclosures and making the company look more attractive. The SEC let him off with a light wrist slap last time so I wouldn't be surprised that he thinks he is now bullet proof. As well, I think the price has now moved past the point where Musk gets a very large payout according to his contract. Coincidence? Maybe. In any event given the fact the company still faces huge head winds, has yet to show significant profits and will be up against the wall as larger, more experienced auto firms rollout their own EV's I think this story will not end well for anyone who bought the stock in the last few days. Just my opinion of course.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 11:51:10

Does there need to be a new conspiracy theory proposed every day here?

Tesla's rebounding because the cultish hopium surrounding Tesla is resilient. It only needed some time for Musk and co. to get their sh*t together. Broken unbreakable windows not withstanding, Tesla has been able to do some executing of late. They got the Chinese gigafactory up and running in record time, for instance, and the Model Y is moving towards release.

Personally, I'm not quite as certain I once was that the major automakers will crush Tesla because they are lapsing behind Tesla in two areas, battery manufacturing and EPA. The pathetic range figures for the Taycan are alarming for its price-point. The eMPG on the eTron and iPace are also poor, made up for with larger packs which make it that much harder to make a profit on them. So far Hyundai and Kia have done the best on efficiency but they don't have the batteries.

On Tesla's front there are so many negatives that can be addressed by competitors besides the above, the interior, paint quality, overall reliability, etc... but the competitors will need to make sure the fundamental drivetrain and battery supply-chain is in order first, otherwise it's a pick-your-poison situation.

I think the teething process the majors are going to go through may leave enough of a gap there for Tesla to avoid being relegated to a niche brand. VW remains the biggest threat to Tesla but they would have to do everything right. The Taycan range issue makes me wonder what kind of deficiencies the MEB cars may have. There was a story recently about how VW is struggling with the software as well.

Now, none of this changes the fact that Tesla is still swimming in long-term debt. I really don't know how it manages to get away with that. But despite that they seem to still be able to execute major initiatives. But they have to get some of the vehicles long in the pipeline out the door, not just the Model Y but the Semi and the Roadster 2. They are also dealing with waning sales for the aging S and X and plans to refresh them that most won't like (the dashboard). And autopilot continues to crash and kill people (inexplicably with no legal liability). So it's not going to just be smooth sailing.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 14:42:29

asg70 wrote:Does there need to be a new conspiracy theory proposed every day here?

Tesla's rebounding because the cultish hopium surrounding Tesla is resilient. It only needed some time for Musk and co. to get their sh*t together. Broken unbreakable windows not withstanding, Tesla has been able to do some executing of late.

...

Personally, I'm not quite as certain I once was that the major automakers will crush Tesla because they are lapsing behind Tesla in two areas, battery manufacturing and EPA. The pathetic range figures for the Taycan are alarming for its price-point. The eMPG on the eTron and iPace are also poor, made up for with larger packs which make it that much harder to make a profit on them. So far Hyundai and Kia have done the best on efficiency but they don't have the batteries.

On Tesla's front there are so many negatives that can be addressed by competitors besides the above, the interior, paint quality, overall reliability, etc... but the competitors will need to make sure the fundamental drivetrain and battery supply-chain is in order first, otherwise it's a pick-your-poison situation.

I think the teething process the majors are going to go through may leave enough of a gap there for Tesla to avoid being relegated to a niche brand.

...

Now, none of this changes the fact that Tesla is still swimming in long-term debt. I really don't know how it manages to get away with that. But despite that they seem to still be able to execute major initiatives. But they have to get some of the vehicles long in the pipeline out the door, not just the Model Y but the Semi and the Roadster 2. They are also dealing with waning sales for the aging S and X and plans to refresh them that most won't like (the dashboard). And autopilot continues to crash and kill people (inexplicably with no legal liability). So it's not going to just be smooth sailing.

Kudos on an excellent summary of the overall picture re Tesla, IMO, based on my following the news on it over time.

I'm with you, re what's likely happening. Tesla appears to have turned the corner into probable long term survival and a decent potential for being beyond a niche player. Clearly investors and fanbois are both encouraged by that.

And once the ball gets rolling and the stock advances enough, then a certain amount of short covering comes into play, snowballing the rise to some extent.

And THEN, as sure as the arrival of nice days in the spring, many idiot analysts jump to dramatically raise their price targets -- inspiring more enthusiastic buying.

No conspiracy required. Given the size of the market in TSLA (many millions of expensive shares traded daily, on average), any such conspiracy seems a VERY long shot, re moving the needle more than a few days.

Now, to me, none of this makes it any more investable (given the risk). Musk is still far too random, and now the company is valued at more than the market value of Ford plus GM, which assumes a tremendous amount of stuff going right for Tesla -- AND badly for all the competition as a group.

The good news is that between Tesla and all the competition, including HEV's, the idea that there won't be lots of EV's made over the next couple years and beyond, or that there isn't a solid growth outlook for EV's is now beyond silly. The main issue now is timing, which depends on quality and price to stoke growing demand.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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