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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 3 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 11:37:34

rockdoc123 wrote:a single station even if they replaced all of their gasoline pumps with charging stations is still not sufficient to power a large EV compliment.


They don't have to, because most EV owners charge at home, something gas car owners can't do.

Also, some perspective is in order. Go watch an old Peak Oil video like End of Suburbia.
As long as EVs have enough range to handle the daily commute when charged up at home, they'll be viable. Road tripping is a nice-to-have but not a must-have. This is a first-world-problem.

rockdoc123 wrote:This is one of the reasons I have a view that our goals have to be not complete transition but a gradual transition over a very long time. I think this will work if everyone bought into it now rather than a decade from now.


The problem with charging stations is it's first-come-first-serve. There is no ability to pre-reserve a station therefore you leave for your trip not knowing if your target station will remain available.

The charging network must be handled more like reserving a table at a restaurant or a conference room in a shared office-space. You've got a window in which to arrive and do your thing. Unfortunately charging stations are at this wild-west period where they aren't all wired into the net very well.

You will still get contention for chargers but people will be able to plan their trips at the source rather than lining up at the chargers in mid-trip.

If people hate so much being locked out then you can set up a bartering process to buy out someone else's reservation.

EVs are different from ICE. They have a different user profile and drivers have to learn to adapt. If someone knows in advance they'll be taking a lot of long trips they could always opt for a plugin hybrid.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 12:32:50

EVs are different from ICE. They have a different user profile and drivers have to learn to adapt. If someone knows in advance they'll be taking a lot of long trips they could always opt for a plugin hybrid.


your solution might address the issue if we were just talking about a small replacement of the ICE fleet but the discussion was about 100% replacement which I am still adamant most people who are on the bandwagon haven't done the math. Waving your hands in the air and saying, oh it will work people always figure a way through problems is a major copout.

Where I live people commuting is one thing but the norm is for folks to drive into the mountains on the weekends and those round trips can't be done with a single charge especially in the winter when there is huge traffic into the mountain ski resorts. During the summer the number of vehicles on the highway driving west from Calgary (last major centre on a westerly trip) with a goal of Vancouver is very significant and that is going to require charging along the way. There are always lineups at the gas stations so it is impossible to imagine a scenario where there would not be a significant problem with charging stations. Set up an "appointment" to charge....well great in theory but in practicality, all it takes is for one or two vehicles to be a bit late which given the distances traveled, variable weather conditions, normal amount of delays due to accidents, wildlife on the roads, avalanches, rock fall etc is a guaranty.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 14:23:38

I don't believe anyone ever proposed a 100 percent switchover to full EVs. Even if you tried it would take twenty years or more to wear out the existing fleet of Ices , especially the heavy diesel trucks. Where you are Rockdoc out in the west of Canada is possible the worst case and would be the last to change over if ever. In the meantime there are millions of average drivers that have daily commutes of thirty miles or less each way that already own two vehicles that can switch over with ease and drive the other car for long trips using the gas they saved during the week driving the EV.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 14:59:15

In the meantime there are millions of average drivers that have daily commutes of thirty miles or less each way that already own two vehicles that can switch over with ease and drive the other car for long trips using the gas they saved during the week driving the EV.


which is what I have been proposing....a gradual shift that will make sense. That being said one still has to do the math as it's not a simple as throwing a switch and voila everyone is driving EVs to work every day. The current setup in many North American cities will not support the additional load if it is concentrated in a certain time period. We live in the country but those in the city here still see minor brownouts in the winter right at peak usage when kids are home from school and have their various gizmos running at full strength, lights are all on, furnaces are cranked up etc. Imagine adding to that 3/4 of a million EV's plugged in essentially at the same time. You can't just say....well everyone will put up solar panels and have Tesla wall batteries simply because in Canada during the winter the sun is very low on the horizon so active charging is challenged (anecdotally a good friend of mine has been monitoring charging levels on his solar panels year-round for the last two years. He has basically decided to not even bother with it during the winter as there is so little charge generated). Add to that the fact that no matter what you need to figure a way of cleaning the snow off of the solar panels which is challenging if they are on the roof of a two-story home with steep sides (needed in snow country). I point this out simply because there are many people who seem to believe there are not going to be any challenges. It is clear there are and just saying oh don't worry about it doesn't cut it to my mind. You need to understand all the potential problems and issues so they can be addressed appropriately otherwise you are just counting on fairy dust to make things magically happen.
An interesting point someone told me about recently that I thought was significant: a 100 times growth in the number of electric vehicles to 400 million on the roads by 2040 would displace only 5% of global oil demand. And replacing all hydrocarbon power with electricity over the next 30 years would require a construction program building out a grid at a rate 14 fold greater than any time in history. I'm not saying any of this is impossible but there are some significant challenges that need to be recognized.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 19:47:36

rockdoc123 wrote:Set up an "appointment" to charge....well great in theory but in practicality, all it takes is for one or two vehicles to be a bit late


100% convenience is impossible. You can't always guarantee a table at a fashionable restaurant when you want it and that sort of thing is true of any limited resource. If people feel it's soooo essential to jump in their vehicle and drive exactly at the same time then they can just not buy an EV and be happy paying for gas.

I just find this whole thing to be a tempest in a teapot considering that peak oil was supposed to amount to Mad Max doom.

rockdoc123 wrote:The current setup in many North American cities will not support the additional load


So that's the future of peaoil.com, I guess. Certain posters waiting and waiting for rolling blackouts instead of $10 oil? Doesn't sound that scary (or likely).

rockdoc123 wrote:I point this out simply because there are many people who seem to believe there are not going to be any challenges.


You come across as if you're the first person in the world to identify this issue. A quick google search shows that you're not.

https://www.wired.com/story/electric-ca ... tric-grid/
https://www.governing.com/topics/transp ... -grid.html

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 08:17:22

rockdoc123 wrote:An interesting point someone told me about recently that I thought was significant: a 100 times growth in the number of electric vehicles to 400 million on the roads by 2040 would displace only 5% of global oil demand. And replacing all hydrocarbon power with electricity over the next 30 years would require a construction program building out a grid at a rate 14 fold greater than any time in history. I'm not saying any of this is impossible but there are some significant challenges that need to be recognized.

Their math on that is suspect. Current world car sales are bouncing around 80 million units a year so EVs only need to get a 25% share to have 400 million on the road in 2040. I also suspect the 5 percent demand reduction is off as the US alone uses 10 million barrels a day of gas and diesel which is half of our total crude consumption. By 2040 world consumption patterns will probably match ours closer then they do now so reducing half of your total consumption by 25 percent would reduce total world demand by 12.5 percent not five.
The grid in America is over seventy years old and already is being upgraded. I doubt they will have much trouble keeping up with new demand to charge cars considering the ability to add on new wind and solar.
With just a quarter million units sold in America last year the industry is still in it's infancy and it will take several doubling of sales before they strain anything so the utilities have plenty of lead time to get ready.
Edit to add:
Taking another look at the consumption figure I realize I was not considering the 7.6 million barrels of finished products we export each day that are included in the 20 mbpd US consumption figure. We also import some finished gas and diesel so it gets a bit hard to pin down.
Looking at it another way the average 42 gallon barrel of crude yields 11 barrels of motor diesel (jet fuel excluded) and 19 barrels of gasoline or 71 percent of the total. So if motor fuel demand is reduced by 25% crude demand would decline by 17.75 percent.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby EdwinSm » Mon 30 Dec 2019, 03:52:17

Tesla has delivered its first cars made in China, marking a major milestone for the electric vehicle maker.
.....
During a ceremony at the company's multi-billion dollar plant in Shanghai, 15 of its employees received cars they had purchased.


Getting the plant up and running seems to have been a major achievement given the time scale.

The event means deliveries of cars have started a little over a year after construction of the factory got underway.


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50921729

The $64billion question is can they make money on it.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 30 Dec 2019, 09:51:33

The Boring Company.

A largely incomprehensible and muddled article on the topic.

I’m posting this more as an example of the poor understanding than anything technically interesting.

https://qz.com/1776975/elon-musks-las-v ... ongestion/
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 30 Dec 2019, 12:44:22

EdwinSm wrote:
The $64billion question is can they make money on it.

If the demand is there (which it is), they will.
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Planned obsolescence, one of the largest contributors to the man made element of climate change, but the one least discussed: dolanbaker
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 30 Dec 2019, 12:53:07

dolanbaker wrote:
EdwinSm wrote:
The $64billion question is can they make money on it.

If the demand is there (which it is), they will.

Not necessarily! Demand is just one of the ingredients needed to make a profit. You must also have raw materials, energy, labor ,management and plant and equipment as well as supply chains and transportation. Then there are the things that hold you back such as government regulation, taxation, favoritism and other corruption. Weakness in any of these can turn the bottom line from black to red.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 30 Dec 2019, 17:04:30

vtsnowedin wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
EdwinSm wrote:
The $64billion question is can they make money on it.

If the demand is there (which it is), they will.

Not necessarily! Demand is just one of the ingredients needed to make a profit. You must also have raw materials, energy, labor ,management and plant and equipment as well as supply chains and transportation. Then there are the things that hold you back such as government regulation, taxation, favoritism and other corruption. Weakness in any of these can turn the bottom line from black to red.

Tesla hasn't yet been profitable annually. It's recent "profitable" quarters seen to be marred by obvious accounting games, like having such a low Capital Expense allowance, that it's not sustainable over time. (Things break, wear out, technology changes, etc. But it does make it easier to claim they are "cash flow positive", etc).

Tesla has had things pretty much all its way re very little competition. That landscape will apparently change meaningfully in 2020 and 20201, and especially beyond.

I think it will be very interesting seeing how profitable they are when they're facing real competition from Ford like the Mach E Mustang, VW, etc. And even the new and better HEV's starting with 2020. If I needed to buy a car soon, an HEV would certainly be a very likely candidate.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 07:49:12

As a company Tesla in now more valuable than Volkswagen. :razz: :roll:

Tesla has displaced Volkswagen as the world's second most valuable carmaker, after a dramatic rise in share price pushed its market value to more than $100bn (£76.1bn).

The milestone sets the stage for chief Elon Musk to collect billions in pay tied to hitting that target.

Tesla's share price has more than doubled since October, when the firm reported a rare quarterly profit.

Shares rose 4% on Wednesday, making its valuation second only to Toyota.

.....
Some analysts say the rise in price reflects Tesla's performance in recent months, during which it has opened a factory in Shanghai and met its production goals.

This month, Tesla said it had delivered more than 367,500 cars last year - up 50% from 2018. Investors expect the new factory to act as a springboard that will allow it to capture more of the Chinese market.


I am not sure given the volume of vehicles produced that it deserves 2nd place!

Despite the increase, Tesla's sales remain small compared to those of its competitors.

Volkswagen delivered almost 11 million vehicles last year, while Toyota sold more than 9 million in the first 11 months of 2019.


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51214824
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 11:12:17

I had a conversation the other day with an investment banker as to if he saw some reason for Tesla shares to suddenly move much higher. His comment was fundamentally there was no reason but it could be because it was so heavily shorted previously and if those shorts were positions held by hedge funds they may have decided to close them out, perhaps thinking the worst was over for Tesla. My own thinking (and I have no evidence of this) is given Musk has shown continual disregard for laws that pertain to trading and disclosure around publicly held companies I wouldn't be surprised that he has orchestrated a rise behind the scenes. Could he have had companies that are held at arms length waltz in and buy up shares in order to move the market? He would likely see this as a means of avoiding share buyback disclosures and making the company look more attractive. The SEC let him off with a light wrist slap last time so I wouldn't be surprised that he thinks he is now bullet proof. As well, I think the price has now moved past the point where Musk gets a very large payout according to his contract. Coincidence? Maybe. In any event given the fact the company still faces huge head winds, has yet to show significant profits and will be up against the wall as larger, more experienced auto firms rollout their own EV's I think this story will not end well for anyone who bought the stock in the last few days. Just my opinion of course.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 12:51:10

Does there need to be a new conspiracy theory proposed every day here?

Tesla's rebounding because the cultish hopium surrounding Tesla is resilient. It only needed some time for Musk and co. to get their sh*t together. Broken unbreakable windows not withstanding, Tesla has been able to do some executing of late. They got the Chinese gigafactory up and running in record time, for instance, and the Model Y is moving towards release.

Personally, I'm not quite as certain I once was that the major automakers will crush Tesla because they are lapsing behind Tesla in two areas, battery manufacturing and EPA. The pathetic range figures for the Taycan are alarming for its price-point. The eMPG on the eTron and iPace are also poor, made up for with larger packs which make it that much harder to make a profit on them. So far Hyundai and Kia have done the best on efficiency but they don't have the batteries.

On Tesla's front there are so many negatives that can be addressed by competitors besides the above, the interior, paint quality, overall reliability, etc... but the competitors will need to make sure the fundamental drivetrain and battery supply-chain is in order first, otherwise it's a pick-your-poison situation.

I think the teething process the majors are going to go through may leave enough of a gap there for Tesla to avoid being relegated to a niche brand. VW remains the biggest threat to Tesla but they would have to do everything right. The Taycan range issue makes me wonder what kind of deficiencies the MEB cars may have. There was a story recently about how VW is struggling with the software as well.

Now, none of this changes the fact that Tesla is still swimming in long-term debt. I really don't know how it manages to get away with that. But despite that they seem to still be able to execute major initiatives. But they have to get some of the vehicles long in the pipeline out the door, not just the Model Y but the Semi and the Roadster 2. They are also dealing with waning sales for the aging S and X and plans to refresh them that most won't like (the dashboard). And autopilot continues to crash and kill people (inexplicably with no legal liability). So it's not going to just be smooth sailing.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 15:42:29

asg70 wrote:Does there need to be a new conspiracy theory proposed every day here?

Tesla's rebounding because the cultish hopium surrounding Tesla is resilient. It only needed some time for Musk and co. to get their sh*t together. Broken unbreakable windows not withstanding, Tesla has been able to do some executing of late.

...

Personally, I'm not quite as certain I once was that the major automakers will crush Tesla because they are lapsing behind Tesla in two areas, battery manufacturing and EPA. The pathetic range figures for the Taycan are alarming for its price-point. The eMPG on the eTron and iPace are also poor, made up for with larger packs which make it that much harder to make a profit on them. So far Hyundai and Kia have done the best on efficiency but they don't have the batteries.

On Tesla's front there are so many negatives that can be addressed by competitors besides the above, the interior, paint quality, overall reliability, etc... but the competitors will need to make sure the fundamental drivetrain and battery supply-chain is in order first, otherwise it's a pick-your-poison situation.

I think the teething process the majors are going to go through may leave enough of a gap there for Tesla to avoid being relegated to a niche brand.

...

Now, none of this changes the fact that Tesla is still swimming in long-term debt. I really don't know how it manages to get away with that. But despite that they seem to still be able to execute major initiatives. But they have to get some of the vehicles long in the pipeline out the door, not just the Model Y but the Semi and the Roadster 2. They are also dealing with waning sales for the aging S and X and plans to refresh them that most won't like (the dashboard). And autopilot continues to crash and kill people (inexplicably with no legal liability). So it's not going to just be smooth sailing.

Kudos on an excellent summary of the overall picture re Tesla, IMO, based on my following the news on it over time.

I'm with you, re what's likely happening. Tesla appears to have turned the corner into probable long term survival and a decent potential for being beyond a niche player. Clearly investors and fanbois are both encouraged by that.

And once the ball gets rolling and the stock advances enough, then a certain amount of short covering comes into play, snowballing the rise to some extent.

And THEN, as sure as the arrival of nice days in the spring, many idiot analysts jump to dramatically raise their price targets -- inspiring more enthusiastic buying.

No conspiracy required. Given the size of the market in TSLA (many millions of expensive shares traded daily, on average), any such conspiracy seems a VERY long shot, re moving the needle more than a few days.

Now, to me, none of this makes it any more investable (given the risk). Musk is still far too random, and now the company is valued at more than the market value of Ford plus GM, which assumes a tremendous amount of stuff going right for Tesla -- AND badly for all the competition as a group.

The good news is that between Tesla and all the competition, including HEV's, the idea that there won't be lots of EV's made over the next couple years and beyond, or that there isn't a solid growth outlook for EV's is now beyond silly. The main issue now is timing, which depends on quality and price to stoke growing demand.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 13:37:15

Competition is ultimately good. I mean, I think the momentum is unstoppable either way, but the stronger Tesla is, the more it acts as a catalyst to the majors. Like I've lost track of how many articles have been written about Porsche's range estimates for Taycan. It's a genuine embarrassment. Porsche innovated in some areas and accepted tradeoffs in others. Also, over in Japan there is still a lot of resistance against pure BEVs. The more the industry appears to be moving en masse the harder it will be for Japan to cling to the idea that hybrids and fuel cells are the future. The reverse is also true, the more the majors threaten Tesla, the more it forces Tesla to get its act in gear and the less prospective EV buyers will have to just take or make apologies for whatever issues or quirky design decisions Tesla forces upon them.

I think the thing to look for going forward, which is more of a general EV thing and not Tesla per se, is the battery manufacturing. I don't think the majors have battery supplies worked out yet. Even if they plan on making them themselves, they are starting way behind Tesla on that front. What I've read indicates that China (as a whole) is erecting battery factories in a way that makes Tesla look like a small-fry. So it will be interesting to see how that capacity gets utilized, either just for domestic manufacturers or to be sold at a low enough overhead to supply the majors with what they need. But if it's just up to the majors making their own batteries, I think they will go through a long ramp-up process and potentially embarrass themselves by not hitting their production targets.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 14:10:44

Anything Tesla can do in the way of making batteries the majors can do and with state of the art automation they can be cost competitive here in the USA. They can also build and debug a new factory faster then Tesla so catch up with the market quickly. Tesla needs to prove out it's products and make deliveries on time if it wants to keep a share of the market before the window closes.
As for the Chinese they will probably use all their battery building capabilities domestically to work on their air pollution problems.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 18:21:33

vtsnowedin wrote: As for the Chinese they will probably use all their battery building capabilities domestically to work on their air pollution problems.

Unless the government forbids international sales, I'd bet LOTS of those batteries, overall, will go to reliable outfits willing to pay the most for very large quantities, on contract over time, in places like Europe and perhaps the US.

This is one way that the makers with big plans, like VW, will get the supplies they need, I presume.

For example, via a quick google search for VW battery supply plans, I find articles like these from mid-2019:

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... are-secure

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volk ... SKCN1U30I8

And this one from 11/2019, showing VW isn't being completely passive on the issue.

https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/13/volks ... ack-plant/

...

I agree with ASG that the more signs of EV (and battery) competition, the better -- both for the planet and consumers.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 23:27:42

vtsnowedin wrote:Anything Tesla can do in the way of making batteries the majors can do and with state of the art automation they can be cost competitive here in the USA.


I'm not saying they can't. I'm saying they aren't. How quickly they can do this and how competently remains to be seen. Batteries are not their core competence. Making the cars themselves is.



That's just for assembling packs, not making the cells. It's good, but they're going to be limited by whatever the weakest link in the supply-chain is, which is gonna be the cells.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 30 Jan 2020, 06:52:42

Just when it was going well with the China factory the BBC reported
Several international airlines have stopped or scaled back their routes to China and companies like Google, Ikea, Starbucks and Tesla have closed their shops or stopped operations.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51305526

I wonder how this will work out both for Tesla and other motor manufactures.

[ps I am aware that Rock...123 thinks that the share markets will bounce back once the Wuhan virus scare is over, so there is not reason for concern. But to me it feels that this will be more serious than the SARS outbreak, and so could have a much wider economic impact.]
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