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PeakOil is You

Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 12:50:45

Bill Gates is saying that the world is facing an Energy Crisis.

Is he on this site trying to convince anyone?

No.

Why would he waste his time?

He created his Terra Power company and is now in a joint venture with the Chinese government to build the first plutonium reactor.


He hired a professor who have been working on solar, wind, geothermal, who came to the conclusion that they just don't work.

Will the plutonium reactor work? Fuck knows.

But at least they are trying.

Trying to convince people on site that the world is facing an energy crisis is a waste of time. What good will it do?
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 15:01:11

Trying to convince people on site that the world is facing an energy crisis is a waste of time. What good will it do?


Yoshua, you will not convince people on anything when their paycheck depends on them not being convinced! In spite of that, there are a great number of people who come to this site, who are not members, and who are not posters. I know because I get their feedback all the time. They come here to read and listen. Keep up the effort. It is not in vain. Ideas posted here appear all over the world. Thanks

PS: why is oil so important among all the other energy sources; oil powers 87% of the world's transportation machinery. Without transport there is no economy, no trade, no civilization. One freight car over the Alps today supplies more goods into Europe than the combined efforts for a year of all the Middle Eastern traders of the 15th century.

We need a substitute for oil, and we need it fast.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 22:08:32

shortonoil wrote:What a dimwit. Here is a guy that actuality


Image

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 12 Dec 2019, 13:33:23

The MOMR is available, and an update of the diagram i posted about four months ago follows. The dotted lines are unchanged, new values for oilprice and production are included.

The production cut of OPEC+ has lifted the price upward in the direction of the dotted green line. Next month it will be visible if all OPEC members follow the cut.

Image

About four month remain until both dotted lines clash. I'm curious what will happen. What are your expectations ?
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby SRSroccoReport » Thu 12 Dec 2019, 14:46:51

2020 Going To Be A Horrible Year For The U.S. Shale Industry

While a picture is worth a thousand words, this chart is worth $billions more of wasted money on Shale. Courtesy of the Oilystuffblog.com: https://www.oilystuffblog.com/

Image

The recent runup in Shale Stocks will provide an excellent opportunity to short these companies are higher prices.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 12 Dec 2019, 14:55:16

SRSroccoReport wrote:The recent runup in Shale Stocks will provide an excellent opportunity to short these companies are higher prices.


That depends entirely on what happens to oil prices and Goldman Sachs and other analysts think oil prices will be moving up from here.

Cheers!
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 12 Dec 2019, 15:12:53

Baduila wrote:The MOMR is available, and an update of the diagram i posted about four months ago follows. The dotted lines are unchanged, new values for oilprice and production are included.

The production cut of OPEC+ has lifted the price upward in the direction of the dotted green line. Next month it will be visible if all OPEC members follow the cut.

Image

About four month remain until both dotted lines clash. I'm curious what will happen. What are your expectations ?

Your chart is nonsensical. If you're trying to project the prices re what the squiggly lines will do, you need to have the date scale CONSITENT at a minimum.

Sometimes, you show 10 months between data points, sometimes only 2, sometimes only 1, sometimes 11. All with the same horizontal date scale re the graph.

What the hell?

Fix the chart so the lines at least theoretically make some sort of sense re a consistent scale, then get back to us.

Meanwhile in the real world, since the ETP MAP price has been strongly exceeded by the real world WTI price consistently for years -- the map was badly broken as making any sense in 2018, and only is getting worse in 2019, so what in the world does looking for the next direction get you? Hopes and prayers that if it it will make 2020 look better for the already failed ETP MAP?

Remember, the MAP predicted WTI price for year end 2019 is about $27 and for year end 2020 is about $13 (me eyeballing shorty's MAP chart in his Version 2, March 1, 2015 ETP paper, page 34, pink 38% line), which he used to like to refer to a lot re how the MAP ensured financial doom by now. Clearly the whole paper has been shown to be a big FAIL, BTW.

Seriously, what's the point? To make the level of failure seem somehow less dismal IF the price breaks your way and the average WTI is only $40 in 2020, so the map is only off by 100% or so? Barring a major global recession REAL SOON NOW, good luck with even that. More likely, it ends up off by 200% or more for average prices for the year, and off by perhaps 300 to 500 percent or even more at end of year pricing.

And if that isn't good enough for you, what miracle do you have in mind for 2021, when the year end price is projected at perhaps $2? If WTI is at the current $60, it will be off by roughly 3 THOUSAND percent? Do you think forecasting the next chart wiggle will make salvage things at that point?

It's ironic, but what you're doing is a graphical representation of what most fast crash doomers do verbally. Try to change the rules, distort things, move the goal posts, jingle some keys, and pretend they're right, as they've always been re their predictions, so we should keep listening to them.

Sure. All COMPLETELY credible. :roll: 8)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 12 Dec 2019, 15:31:04

While a picture is worth a thousand words, this chart is worth $billions more of wasted money on Shale. 


Dear Lord save us from idiots.
Nearly half of the investment shown is either cashflow or other people's money (via partnerships or farmins). This is good news, not bad news. Also what is not shown here is divestments that are done yearly by these companies. The standard operating procedure in the unconventional is to pick up as much prospective land as possible, drill a few wells so you can high grade the acreage and then sell off the least prospective land which provides operating capital. As well debt is not a bad thing if it can provide higher levels of activity and the company can easily pay off the carrying charges and retirement requirements. Equity is great, there is some associated dilution to existing shareholders but I’ve never seen shareholders whine at the prospect of the overall increased share price.
That all being said the big problem with this graph is it is complete made-up BS. There is no one company that this represents. There are many companies operating who have not taken out additional debt in several years, there are many companies operating who have not issued additional equity in years and there are a number who completely financed their operations through cash flow (as I have pointed out here previously a number of times). And those companies who are doing well will end up buying or farming in on the companies who aren’t doing well.

The recent runup in Shale Stocks will provide an excellent opportunity to short these companies are higher prices.


Good luck with that. Short sellers lose their shirts more often than not and especially so if they have no idea whatsoever about market fundamentals or how to read an oil and gas balance sheet. Go ahead, though. Solidify that huge short position just before Trump announces a trade deal with China....the outcome should be humerous. :wink:
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