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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 11:22:32

Once again... there's only one human race.

I believe that someone proved through DNA tests that we all humans originate from South Africa. The average IQ sub Sahara is 65.

There are obviously people who are above average...as well as below average.

We are part of evolution and nature...since we are nature.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 11:26:24

In reality riots, revolutions and wars tend to be short lived events, and they go on all over the world somewhere at any given chunk of time. Even places like Somalia where the government collapsed and old tribal hatreds rose to the forte with modern weapons only took a decade to burn itself out. Somalia today is vastly more peaceful than Somalia in 1992-95 the same way Cuba today is vastly more peaceful than Cuba in 1959-62.

The media is all about ghastly headlines to draw attention so they can sell advertising. When they do it with a culture that is completely alien to you and a region that sells the lifeblood of industrial civilization the impression you are left with is chaos and unending trouble, but that is a false image.


This is exactly correct. I spent a lot of time overseas in the countries that North Americans seem to think are wrought with riots (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Sudan etc). The truth is that the media can turn a gathering of a few into a mob scene where you would think it is hundreds. I remember one time in Cairo we were sitting in the office watching the news and saw a CNN depiction of an apparently violent uprising in downtown Cairo near the market. We were all unaware of anything having transpired and when we looked into what had actually happened it turns out there were ten or so people who got emotional
as a consequence of a temporary rise in the cost of unleavened bread (a few piastres) and the police (who were stationed in trucks every 4 blocks or so in the Mubarak days for just such an event) intervened, arresting some etc. The whole event took place in about 20 minutes apparently but to see it on the news you would think it lasted days. The news loves to make things look worse than they really are....mountains out of molehills seems to be their raison d'etre. The next day I was down in the market buying spices....no signs of unrest with the exception of the shop owners trying to encourage you to buy from them.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 11:31:09

The average IQ sub Sahara is 65.


Yeah right. Please give us a reference for that bit of complete BS. Perhaps you can explain how they conducted IQ tests on the Toureg nomads who continuously wander across Mali, Algeria and Niger? Or which researchers went out into the Western desert or the Grand Erg Orientale to run IQ tests on the Bedu?

Seems to me we are being shown the origin of double-digit IQ numbers in the West by comments like this. :roll:
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 11:42:19

There's no evidence that humans climbed down a tree. There's evidence that we are a form of water monkey.

We humans actually share some things with dolfins.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 12:03:58

rockdoc123 wrote:
The average IQ sub Sahara is 65.


Yeah right. Please give us a reference for that bit of complete BS. Perhaps you can explain how they conducted IQ tests on the Toureg nomads who continuously wander across Mali, Algeria and Niger? Or which researchers went out into the Western desert or the Grand Erg Orientale to run IQ tests on the Bedu?

Seems to me we are being shown the origin of double-digit IQ numbers in the West by comments like this. :roll:


I did the pre Mensa test. I scored 9 out of 10. They said that I might just make it through the real test.

That was good enough for me. I'm sure that I wouldn't make it through real test...so I passed.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 13:06:59

There's no evidence that humans climbed down a tree.


Modern man is a primate. 99% of his DNA is identical to a chimpanzee. Chimpanzees are arboreal tool makers and users. Other members of the primate family can count. Baboons can count to 3. Early man counted 1,2,3, many. After Homo erectus, one million years ago, discovered the use of controlled fire, the line of Homo branched off into many species. It is "assumed" that Homo sapiens are the only branch of that line that still exists. I strongly doubt it. There is very strong evidence to indicate that Homo sapiens share this star system with an earlier, and much more advanced branch of Homo. From the time of Heidelberg man who invented the spear, and spear thrower 850,000 years ago, to the rise of modern man, 10,000 years ago, a lot could have happened. Many civilizations rose and fell over that 840,000 years. Homo sapiens weren't the only ones that made it.

When one considers that most of modern man's knowledge has been accumulated over the last 500 years, 840,000 years leaves a lot of opportunity for advancement.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 14:01:45

The water erosion on the Sphinx is older than the Egyptian culture. Our memory is just very bad.

No one really remembers how and why we built the pyramids. We are still discovering amazing things about the Egyptian civilization that we don't know how we did...or how to do today.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 14:29:00

AdamB wrote:
Yoshua wrote:This forum is all about free speech...so fuck you all!


You obviously weren't around when Monte was running the joint. And just because your point of view is taking quite a beating since peak oil didn't pan out as planned, and the backup plan of pimping etp nonsense was disavowed by its own author to riotous laughter, so sure, it's been a rough few years.


I admit that predicting the future is difficult...to say the least.

Will you admit that the central banks operations point to some very severe problems that there seems to be no solution to?

Something very serious is taking place.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 19:00:04

Yoshua wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:
The average IQ sub Sahara is 65.


Yeah right. Please give us a reference for that bit of complete BS. Perhaps you can explain how they conducted IQ tests on the Toureg nomads who continuously wander across Mali, Algeria and Niger? Or which researchers went out into the Western desert or the Grand Erg Orientale to run IQ tests on the Bedu?

Seems to me we are being shown the origin of double-digit IQ numbers in the West by comments like this. :roll:


I did the pre Mensa test. I scored 9 out of 10. They said that I might just make it through the real test.

That was good enough for me. I'm sure that I wouldn't make it through real test...so I passed.

So WHY, pray tell, don't you use a bit of that intelligence to provide decent links to substantiate your opinons? Especially when controversial, unusual, etc.

You're on the internet, after all.

...

FWIW, IQ is heavily impacted by what you've been doing at the time. I'm 99% sure I accidentally peaked at the end of my college career, just because of so much intense mental activity all the time re studying. Also, I got pretty good at taking tests, learning to be careful reading and avoiding "silly" oversights, etc. So I got good scores on test like the GRE (Graduate Record Exam) my senior year, having been immersed in math and English for four (and much less intensely before that for a good decade). Good enough to join Mensa, I found out by accident, after the fact. But my impression on going to some local Mensa "game nights" was I was one of the dumbest people in the room.

But how well does that correlate to actual intelligence re general problem solving or the ability to learn and apply new material? I'm not so sure. I was still pretty awful at things like the soft humanities and arts, which mostly didn't interest me, for example.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 20:13:41

shortonoil wrote:
There's no evidence that humans climbed down a tree.


Modern man is a primate.


Knowing that you have steadfastly proven you know nothing about oil and gas, and then defending not knowing anything for years, I am instantly suspicious that modern man is a primate...just because you said it.

Have you paid off the bet yet?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 15:33:47

Knowing that you have steadfastly proven you know nothing about oil and gas,


For an obsequious ignoramus that doesn't know the difference between crude, and condensate you are managing to out do yourself in the dumber than dirt department. Your services are redunant; the world has reached it quota of morons.

Conventional crude peaked between 2005 and 2007. Shale, which is not a crude, but a condensate is on its death bed. The EIA and the IEA, and about 2 million producers refer to them as C&C; which stands for crude and condensate. The IEA has stated that world conventional production is declining by 4.5% per year. For the resident imbecile that means it has Peaked.

Like we have stated repeatedly the oil age will end in a world of economic ruin. We are at its doorstep, and the entire monetary system is on the verge of meltdown. World debt will finish 2019 just shy of $300 trillion. The world's debt growth to its GDP growth is just shy of 20:1. The central banks have lost control of every thing, but asset prices. They will lose that next year as the credit markets begin to implode. By 2021 that process will be completed as the currency destruction from debt formation exceeds the world's currency in circulation, and debt growth to GDP growth approaches infinity.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 16:33:38

Shale, which is not a crude, but a condensate is on its death bed.


and the moronic comments just keep coming. :roll:

Production from all of the unconventional reservoirs in the US is a mix of natural gas, oil and volatile oil and condensate. Not all of the liquid production is condensate (as you have been schooled on countless times in the past) in fact condensate is a bit player in comparison to crude oil. As an example in 2015 when production peaked in the Eagle Ford oil production was 1.19 Mbbl/d and it dropped to 931 Kbbl/d by 2019. In contrast condensate production from the Eagle Ford was 306 Kbbl/d in 2015 and 179 Kbbl/d in 2019. In other words at its peak condensate from the Eagle Ford made up only 20% of total liquids production and currently makes up only 16% of total liquid production.In the Permian basin oil production in 2019 averaged 2.6 MMb/d versus condensate at 333 Kbbl/d meaning condensate only makes up 11% of total liquids production.

For an obsequious ignoramus that doesn't know the difference between crude, and condensate you are managing to out do yourself in the dumber than dirt department.


It is pretty clear who the ignoramus who doesn't know the difference between crude and condensate is. :roll:
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 20:47:36

shortonoil wrote:
Knowing that you have steadfastly proven you know nothing about oil and gas,


For an obsequious ignoramus that doesn't know the difference between crude, and condensate you are managing to out do yourself in the dumber than dirt department. Your services are redunant; the world has reached it quota of morons.


Yes, reservoir engineers don't have a clue how to handle retrograde condensate reservoirs. We keep getting our thermodynamic equations wrong and need to ask net energy fools...silly us.

shortonoil wrote:Conventional crude peaked between 2005 and 2007. Shale, which is not a crude, but a condensate is on its death bed.


Shale is not a crude, correct, it is a rock type. So no, it isn't a condensate. And the light sweet crude that comes from the source rocks as reservoir rocks here in the US, is light, sweet crude. Across the board, if my information on gravity and impurities is correct.

Don't you have a bet to pay off rather than demonstrating why mechanical engineers aren't petroleum engineers? In your case, not only did you prove it, but then you had to run off and hide the evidence it was so obvious!!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 22:58:19

Adam/rocd
You guys have a lot more patience than I, fo sho.

Regarding LTO being on its "deathbed" (???) ...
Interesting events surrounding IMO 2020 would indicate quite the opposite, actually.

With all the uncertainty, muted drama as the fuel deadline looms only weeks away, it turns out that sweet, light American 'shale oil' is emerging as the ideal feedstock to produce Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO).
Keeping technical discussion to a minimum, the characteristics of US LTO enable high qualty, uniform fuel to be consistently produced at the refinery gate for the world's marine engines.
Erratic results from various blends at different refineries were causing huge sludge problems in several trial runs.

This has played a big role in ship owners holding back on future paths of adaption.
The price of VLSFO is running about $480/ton, compared to the more reliable, established Marine Gas Oil (MGO) which sells for ~$570/ton.

Asian refineries are ramping up importing/refining US LTO and downstream players - storage/tender barge owners/etc. are cleaning their vessels and loading up this fuel.

For context, of the ~100 million barrels a day of global oil consumption, marine traffic uses ~ 4 1/2 million bbld.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 03:25:17

Yoshua wrote:The water erosion on the Sphinx is older than the Egyptian culture. Our memory is just very bad.


Man is this thread veering off-topic or what?

Just another sign of how dead ETP is.

People should all just collectively throw short in their ignore filter. When nobody engages him anymore maybe he'll leave. It's not like he has anything useful to contribute.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 09:37:34

Shortonoil is the only one creative, with original thought, on this site. The rest of us are just repeating something we have read. If you want to put your ignoramus filter on...then go ahead. Knock yourself out.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 10:29:18

Yoshua wrote:Shortonoil is the only one creative, with original thought, on this site.


Original thought is of no value when it's WRONG.

Has it ever occurred to you that maybe the majority opinion on where we stand is the correct one...that scarcity drives prices upwards? A pre-Mensa grade mind should understand Occam's razor.

How long has it been now with oil prices detached from ETP's charts, and yet you continue to run defense for this guy and his failed model? Even his website doesn't exist anymore. It's long past due to throw in the towel on your misguided fanboism.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 11:38:23

asg70 wrote:
Yoshua wrote:Shortonoil is the only one creative, with original thought, on this site.


Original thought is of no value when it's WRONG.

Has it ever occurred to you that maybe the majority opinion on where we stand is the correct one...that scarcity drives prices upwards? A pre-Mensa grade mind should understand Occam's razor.

How long has it been now with oil prices detached from ETP's charts, and yet you continue to run defense for this guy and his failed model? Even his website doesn't exist anymore. It's long past due to throw in the towel on your misguided fanboism.


I don't think that shortonoil knows it all. The Etp Model looks only into petroleum production. Petroleum counts for 30% of the energy mix.

The Etp Model could be correct about the net energy delivered by petroleum to the economy...and its net energy value to the economy.

If the energy mix has a high enough EROI to support petroleum productions energy needs to counter petroleum productions net energy decline, then the value of petroleum is due to its uniqueness of being a liquid fuel.

Oil prices have been on declining trend since 2008 though.

There's no scarcity of oil in the earths crust. But the quality of that oil is in decline.

Are you going to pay more or less for a product with degraded quality?

You are talking apples. We are talking oranges.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 12:04:14

There's no scarcity of oil in the earths crust. But the quality of that oil is in decline.

Are you going to pay more or less for a product with degraded quality?


nothing could be further from the truth. The US light oil being produced from the various shale basins is very high quality. If you look at an assay of say Permian Basin oils or Bakken oils they look very much like Brent, can't get much better than that. This whole BS that shortonoil keeps spewing suggesting that there is some magic oil type that refineries have to have is a bit tiresome. The oil types that refineries accept is based on how they tooled their system. In the case of the US those refineries were originally tooled to deal with the oil being produced from conventional reservoirs across the US much of it medium grade crude with a variety of impurties. As oil from conventional reservoirs began to drop off these refineries increased their compliment of heavy crude from Alberta and Venezuela and that was then brought to refinery spec by blending with light oils imported from the Middle East and elsewhere. Those refineries could be easily retooled to deal with lighter oil, it just doesn't make sense economically for the refiners to do so.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 12:12:24

Williams: "They've Effectively Lost Control Of The System"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/willi ... rol-system

“What the Fed has done with their easing, according to the Fed, is they created a circumstance of sustainable moderate economic growth. So, they don’t need to cut rates anymore. That’s nonsense. You don’t have sustainable moderate growth. For example, look at this last month, industrial production is in a state of collapse... Manufacturing is negative... Oil production is collapsing year to year as oil and gas exploration has plunged. . . . Retail sales have been overstated in employment... That’s going to be revised lower... We have been getting better numbers as of late, and the economy is still falling off a cliff.”



What a dimwit. Here is a guy that actuality "works" at his job. To succeed in today’s economy you follow the prescribed narrative; collect your corporate/ government check, and retire to the Bahamas. Why would anyone care that the lights are soon going to be going out? That is such an anomaly in a world where the most important thing is sending a picture to the relatives, via your new Iphone, of what your dog had for diner. Smarten up John; they have been trained not to notice; and they won't until that bulb fludders a few times, and then the lights blink out!

Running 3 billion ICs on cow farts is going to be a little challenging!

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