Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 11:38:54

shortonoil wrote:It looks like the market may be starting to crack.


<yawn>

Well, after 15 years of you saying it, and me waiting the past 10 for it to actually and create another wonderful equity purchase opportunity, let's hope so. For your credibility and my retirement account.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4797
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 12:40:20

Traders think that this is the big short, that the Fed infused bubble is about to pop...and then things will return to normal again.

Someone at Our Finite World just said that the collapse of the entire system will happen at the market top.

I haven't got a blipping clue what will happen.

Trump has called the "plunge protection team" again...so let's see what happens.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1704
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 12:51:33

Yoshua wrote:Someone at Our Finite World just said that the collapse of the entire system will happen at the market top.


Seriously? Our Finite World saying something doomy is considered newsworthy? What's next, people start linking to zerohedge? ;)

Hey look, someone down the street with an end is nigh sign hanging around him said the end is nigh. He must know something we don't! Head for the bunker!

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3033
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 13:44:16

Yoshua wrote:Someone at Our Finite World just said that the collapse of the entire system will happen at the market top.


Doomers gotta doom. You said so yourself.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4797
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 14:26:37

AdamB wrote:
Yoshua wrote:Someone at Our Finite World just said that the collapse of the entire system will happen at the market top.


Doomers gotta doom. You said so yourself.


Yes grandpa, we are here to serve you with doom to spice up your days.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1704
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 14:56:17

It was a simple question Short.


All it required was a simple answer: bored or desperate? But if you are waiting for the world's $341 trillion debt bomb to explode before answering, that could take another couple of years, that is: when the world's debt formation rate becomes equal to the currency it has in circulation. From that point there will begin a massive liquidity crisis that will initiate the cascading default of some $400 trillion in debt. Then no one will care!

So...my question is: when does a specific hydrogen atom in the universe take another electron into its orbit?


As soon as Bernie Sanders gets elected. Or, in other words, not very often. QM is one of those fuzzy little things that everyone talks about, and no one can quit figure out. If electrons can appear from no where, why don't we get the occasional pumpkin pie? Discounting reality to produce reality puts QM on the border of known reality. If reality takes the form of a normal distribution, we may be on the tail.

47% Of GDP – This Is Definitely The Scariest Corporate Debt Bubble In U.S. History
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... us-history

Corporate debt is up a whopping 52 percent since 2008, and this bubble is continually growing.
And actually the 10 trillion dollar figure is the most conservative number out there. Because if you add in all other forms of corporate debt, the grand total comes to 15.5 trillion dollars. The following comes from Forbes…

Total corporate debt is actually much higher. Adding the debt of small medium sized enterprises, family businesses, and other business which are not listed in stock exchanges ads another $5.5 trillion. In other words, total US corporate debt is $15.5 trillion, 74% of US GDP.


Ackerman contends, “I am a little more bearish than that. I see a Mad Max scenario as inevitable. . . . I try not to think about it because we’ve all got lives to live and kids to raise. . . . When you go back to the calculous of deflation and that every penny of every debt must be paid, if not by the borrower then by the lender, we have already put ourselves into a condition where Social Security is going to fail. Medicare is going to fail. All the ‘just-in-time’ deliveries are going to be in jeopardy. Food from the grocery stores, one day shipping from Amazon, I don’t see how all these things can continue to operate in a condition other than in the false prosperity that we have now. We are at the pinnacle of affluence.”


Image

The world has $341 trillion in total debt outstanding, and the debt growth rate is following petroleum's depletion perfectly. The debt growth is equal to the rate at which we are consuming existing assets to keep the economy working; we are eating our seed corn at a frantic rate to keep the economy's wheels turning. When the debt implodes civilization as we know it will end, and the energy will not be there to rebuild it. The world has not been able to replace its conventional reserves that it is using in more than 20 years, and the last little bit remaining is rapidly being exhausted. The greatest civilization that the world has ever known was build on oil; the greatest collapse the world will ever see will result with its ending. Once all this begins to disintegrate it will feed on itself like a ravenous monster. We foolishly acted like it was going to last forever. Those who survive will know, without a doubt, that it didn't!

The legends of a once great civilization will live on like the stories of Atlantis for a 1000 years.

Image
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6400
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 19:12:02

shortonoil wrote:
It was a simple question Short.


All it required was a simple answer: bored or desperate?


That isn't an answer short. It is a question.

Are you once a welsher, always a welsher, or not?

What is the title of the book, and who published it?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4797
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 21:42:37

Almost half of all Americans work in low-wage jobs
America's unemployment rate is at a half-century low, but it also has a job-quality problem that affects nearly half the population, with a study finding 44% of U.S. workers are employed in low-wage jobs that pay median annual wages of $18,000.

Contrary to popular opinion, these workers aren't teenagers or young adults just starting their careers, write Martha Ross and Nicole Bateman of the Brookings Institution's Metropolitan Policy Program, which conducted the analysis.


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/minimum-wa ... wage-jobs/
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5422
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 23:49:28

Armageddon wrote:Almost half of all Americans work in low-wage jobs


Yes...quite a collapse from when all Americans had high-wage jobs....wait....oops....

Armageddon wrote:America's unemployment rate is at a half-century low, but it also has a job-quality problem that affects nearly half the population, with a study finding 44% of U.S. workers are employed in low-wage jobs that pay median annual wages of $18,000.


And this isn't because the unequal distribution of worker capabilities leads to unequal distribution of worker pay and compensation?

Or don't you even ask yourself basic questions like this prior to pretending it has something to do with a stock market crash? Coming...someday...sometime....maybe....

Armageddon wrote:Contrary to popular opinion, these workers aren't teenagers or young adults just starting their careers, write Martha Ross and Nicole Bateman of the Brookings Institution's Metropolitan Policy Program, which conducted the analysis.


Sounds like my unequal distribution of worker capability and pay theory has been substantiated and I didn't even have to do it myself!!

So what do you think this means Army, maybe a 5% market drop tomorrow, this horrifying new insight into American employment?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4797
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Cog » Wed 04 Dec 2019, 02:02:55

You get paid pretty much what you are worth to a corporation. Don't like it? Quit or better yourself. Or cry about it on the internet. But I'm all out of cares to give for you.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12856
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 04 Dec 2019, 02:58:48

Wages put a limit on how much debt a person can take. That in turn constraints the banks credit creation.

U.S banks have in fact cut lending to the private economy and that debt is now in contraction.

This will lead to a slowdown of the economy. The manufacturing ISM is showing that the economy is slowing down.

The Repo is the tell that something is blowing up.

The workforce is made up by 44% with subprime credit rating. They might have reached the limit on how much debt they can take on.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1704
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby marmico » Wed 04 Dec 2019, 06:53:50

with a study finding 44% of U.S. workers are employed in low-wage jobs that pay median annual wages of $18,000.


BS. The Social Security Administration says that median (50th percentile) annual wage is $32,800 per year.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/central.html
marmico
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1056
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 04 Dec 2019, 08:13:54

marmico wrote:
with a study finding 44% of U.S. workers are employed in low-wage jobs that pay median annual wages of $18,000.


BS. The Social Security Administration says that median (50th percentile) annual wage is $32,800 per year.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/central.html




Almost half of U.S. workers between ages 18 to 64 are employed in low-wage jobs, the Brookings Institution found.

Low-wage jobs are pervasive, representing between one-third to two-thirds of all jobs in the country's almost 400 metropolitan areas.


If it was as easy as using .gov, there would be no reason to do studies. Why would they waste their time?
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5422
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 04 Dec 2019, 10:36:50

Are you once a welsher, always a welsher, or not?

What is the title of the book, and who published it?


As far as the title of the book goes; if you keep searching the ancient history archives (in your quest for the answer to the ultimate Trivial Pursuit question) you will find it. That is a good project for someone with an obsessive compulsive dysfunction, and an IQ that is the same as their shoe size.

Low-wage jobs are pervasive, representing between one-third to two-thirds of all jobs in the country's almost 400 metropolitan areas.


That situation is about to be self re-mediating as there will soon be no jobs at all. An economy dying of energy starvation can not be re-energized by gnomes with a printing press. The central bank elves are running out of assets to monetize.

ADP Employment Data Disappoints, Second Lowest Print In A Decade

ADP National Employment Report prints +67k (drastically below expectations of +135k and October's +121k)

The job market is losing its shine. Manufacturers, commodity producers, and retailers are shedding jobs. Job openings are declining and if job growth slows any further unemployment will increase.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... int-decade

Image
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6400
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 04 Dec 2019, 13:18:30

shortonoil wrote:
Are you once a welsher, always a welsher, or not?

What is the title of the book, and who published it?


As far as the title of the book goes; if you keep searching the ancient history archives (in your quest for the answer to the ultimate Trivial Pursuit question) you will find it.


Excellent. I shall keep an eye out.

shortonoil wrote: That is a good project for someone with an obsessive compulsive dysfunction, and an IQ that is the same as their shoe size.


Says the parrot who had to hide their pièce de ré·sis·tance because it had the flaws I told you about years ago. I've never had to retract a single published work of mine spanning 20+ years now. You keep trying though, with a little more work and a lot less mindless parrot routine, you still might have time left in life to get one done. Perhaps something in the children section, on basic addition? Johnny has 2 apples, Susie has 3 apples, if they put their apples in a basket, how many apples are in the basket, stuff like that.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4797
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 04 Dec 2019, 14:15:39

Armageddon wrote:
marmico wrote:
with a study finding 44% of U.S. workers are employed in low-wage jobs that pay median annual wages of $18,000.


BS. The Social Security Administration says that median (50th percentile) annual wage is $32,800 per year.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/central.html




Almost half of U.S. workers between ages 18 to 64 are employed in low-wage jobs, the Brookings Institution found.

Low-wage jobs are pervasive, representing between one-third to two-thirds of all jobs in the country's almost 400 metropolitan areas.


If it was as easy as using .gov, there would be no reason to do studies. Why would they waste their time?

So to try to justify your BS, pretend the data isn't the data.

Doesn't fly any better than it ever has, but thanks for playing. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7387
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 04 Dec 2019, 14:40:40

Swallowing govt jizz instead of real life data and surveys is what the sheep like.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5422
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 04 Dec 2019, 15:03:14

So to try to justify your BS, pretend the data isn't the data.


The data presented was this: you are one box short of a happy meal; short a full deck; loony tunes; etc.
Image

How long can the BLS fudge their U3 jobs numbers? Of course the government would never lie!! Jobs are about the last of the lagging indicators. The FED's need to re-enter the market with their Not QE, to the tune of $160 billion a month, was the first "official" release that things where going to hell in a hand basket.
The oil age is ending and it is hardly even being mentioned. The next, soon to arrive depression, will not be televised..
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6400
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 04 Dec 2019, 16:13:20

Looking at employment data for the US it is nearly impossible to find anything bad to report unless you cherry pick portions of graphs and increase their scale to accentuate an abiration.

Image
US unemployment rate has steadily dropped since the recession. It is at what is close to an all time low. That is good news in case you were wondering.

Image
US initial jobless claims have steadily decreased with no uptick as of late. There is no support in this data that there are suddenly becoming more unemployed people.

Image
full-time employment has steadily increased which is contrary to the BS that some here want to spin about all new jobs being part time.

Image
part-time employment data bears that out with it being lower now than in the last five years and having overall decreased since 2013. In other words, the vast majority of jobs being created are full-time jobs.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7316
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 04 Dec 2019, 16:42:06

Armageddon wrote:Swallowing govt jizz instead of real life data and surveys is what the sheep like.


And what is it being a follower of Alex Jones makes you? Sheep dung?
Last edited by AdamB on Wed 04 Dec 2019, 18:20:16, edited 1 time in total.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4797
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests