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US finally a net petroleum exporter

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 17:07:03

Armageddon wrote:Nope, you’re still wrong


I asked a question of you, how is that wrong? What Stock Market Crash part ( 12? 21? 45?) are we going to see the actual Stock Market Crash? And what do you recommend on investing to take advantage of it?

Either you believe in the product you are pimping or you do not.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 17:21:47

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Nope, you’re still wrong


I asked a question of you, how is that wrong? What Stock Market Crash part ( 12? 21? 45?) are we going to see the actual Stock Market Crash? And what do you recommend on investing to take advantage of it?

Either you believe in the product you are pimping or you do not.



Stock market? My posts are regarding the economy. They just happen to be in the Stock Market thread because that thread has the most activity. The stock market is completely rigged and has no relevance to the overall economy.

It’s mostly my fault for not starting an ‘economic collapse’ thread.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 18:56:27

Armageddon wrote:This makes more sense. Their numbers just didn’t add up


Where might your numbers be gathered from? The EIA requires people report their numbers to them, how much is in tanks, how much is produced, how much is sold and what types.

Your information to refute data might be?
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 19:01:38

Armageddon wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Nope, you’re still wrong


I asked a question of you, how is that wrong? What Stock Market Crash part ( 12? 21? 45?) are we going to see the actual Stock Market Crash? And what do you recommend on investing to take advantage of it?

Either you believe in the product you are pimping or you do not.



Stock market? My posts are regarding the economy.


Indeed. However, if you wish to discuss your economic understanding, I am quite happy to do that as well I suppose.

by Armageddon » Fri 15 Sep 2006, 23:30:42 wrote:This house of cards known as the economy is on its last leg.


So...how many decades does a "last leg" last?

Armageddon wrote:It’s mostly my fault for not starting an ‘economic collapse’ thread.


Which would now be 13 years long...and us still waiting for the economic collapse.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 19:16:57

As of the middle of 2019, the US as a net crude importer of 4.2 million barrels per day. If there is a huge surge in exports then it implies US domestic consumption is crashing. Hardly something to wank off about.


apparently neither you nor Armegeddon can be bothered to actually go to the EIA to source the actual data that is collected each week from producing states and refineries. I will summarize:

Last week Imports of crude oil and petroleum products averaged 8.668 Mmb/d and exports of crude and petroleum products were 8.757 Mmb/d. It is a small margin but by definition, this makes the US a net exporter for that week.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 19:39:11

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Nope, you’re still wrong


I asked a question of you, how is that wrong? What Stock Market Crash part ( 12? 21? 45?) are we going to see the actual Stock Market Crash? And what do you recommend on investing to take advantage of it?

Either you believe in the product you are pimping or you do not.



Stock market? My posts are regarding the economy.


Indeed. However, if you wish to discuss your economic understanding, I am quite happy to do that as well I suppose.

by Armageddon » Fri 15 Sep 2006, 23:30:42 wrote:This house of cards known as the economy is on its last leg.


So...how many decades does a "last leg" last?

Armageddon wrote:It’s mostly my fault for not starting an ‘economic collapse’ thread.


Which would now be 13 years long...and us still waiting for the economic collapse.




How many trillions of printing did it take stop it? QE 1,2,3, bailouts, buyouts, ZIRP for a decade etc.

We are now heading back to 0% GDP and 0% interest rates and massive QE. Buckle up son
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 19:55:33

Armagedoon wrote:
AdamB wrote:
by Armageddon » Fri 15 Sep 2006, 23:30:42 wrote:This house of cards known as the economy is on its last leg.


So...how many decades does a "last leg" last?


How many trillions of printing did it take stop it? QE 1,2,3, bailouts, buyouts, ZIRP for a decade etc.


Why would I care? I wasn't running around proclaiming the end in 2006. LAST LEG!!! I've only checked out a couple of your old claims, and they were basically that borrowing was the entire CAUSE of the last leg.

Now you want to argue it is the SOLUTION?

How quaint. How introspective...after the fact...sort of like...Monday morning quarterbacking....but even more amazingly? YOU SAY THE SAME STUFF TODAY!

So pray tell, when you got it absolutely backwards in 2006, and are claiming the same things wrong today that you were back then, the real question is, do you have the ability to LEARN from your mistakes?

Armageddon wrote:We are now heading back to 0% GDP and 0% interest rates and massive QE. Buckle up son


That's what you said 13 years ago. Did you learn ANYTHING from your incessant whining across 13 years, or is being a broken record as far as your talents reach?
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 21:16:47

Armageddon wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Since ive schooled you guys on the economy, i’ll let you school me on this.

The only thing you've ever "schooled" on the economy, re many years of bad predictions, lies, grandstanding, changing the subject when challenged, etc. is your own delusions.

But thanks for playing. 8)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 21:24:43

AdamB wrote:
Armagedoon wrote:
AdamB wrote:
by Armageddon » Fri 15 Sep 2006, 23:30:42 wrote:This house of cards known as the economy is on its last leg.


So...how many decades does a "last leg" last?


How many trillions of printing did it take stop it? QE 1,2,3, bailouts, buyouts, ZIRP for a decade etc.


Why would I care? I wasn't running around proclaiming the end in 2006. LAST LEG!!! I've only checked out a couple of your old claims, and they were basically that borrowing was the entire CAUSE of the last leg.

Now you want to argue it is the SOLUTION?

How quaint. How introspective...after the fact...sort of like...Monday morning quarterbacking....but even more amazingly? YOU SAY THE SAME STUFF TODAY!

So pray tell, when you got it absolutely backwards in 2006, and are claiming the same things wrong today that you were back then, the real question is, do you have the ability to LEARN from your mistakes?

Armageddon wrote:We are now heading back to 0% GDP and 0% interest rates and massive QE. Buckle up son


That's what you said 13 years ago. Did you learn ANYTHING from your incessant whining across 13 years, or is being a broken record as far as your talents reach?




That’s what I said 13 yrs ago? Huh? This is what they did to stop the crash. We are now heading back to where we were, this time they don’t have 6% of rate cuts to stop it.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 21:28:20

Debt creation is going vertical. That’s all they can do at this point. For how long? We’ll find out soon
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 21:32:50

Armageddon wrote:That’s what I said 13 yrs ago? Huh? This is what they did to stop the crash. We are now heading back to where we were, this time they don’t have 6% of rate cuts to stop it.


Oh, you said all kinds of things back then Army. You still a 9/11 truther? Still chase after what Alex Jones says? I noticed that you thought Ruppert was a PO pioneer.

by Armageddon » Sat 15 Oct 2005, 00:47:20 wrote:i agree. michael is a PO pioneer. Love him or hate him, he should be respected regardless. michael, my check is in the mail, just keep up the good work.


I mean, I thought everyone knew this guy was a conspiracy crank about 10 seconds after he showed up and began saying some seriously ignorant things about oil, and trying to puff up that pedophile he mistook for a Naval Intelligence officer. Didn't that kind of stuff ever give you pause prior to jumping into that crazy pool head first?
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 21:38:06

Armageddon wrote:Debt creation is going vertical. That’s all they can do at this point. For how long? We’ll find out soon


Going on 14 years of soon and last legs at this point.

As much as I'd love to discuss how many last legs you've been claiming in how many decades now (#3 coming up in a month!!), this is the petroleum exporter thread.

Have you found the data yet? I did provide a link, as did Rockdoc. Have you had a chance to check out the data to see how data experts add up these numbers (doing that complicated addition, subtraction type thing) to explain why we recently became a net petroleum product exporter?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby wildbourgman » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 10:16:07

I think dissident's post sums it up, we are playing word games in order to claim we are a net exporter.
figures don’t lie, but liars figure
I also think you have to take into account how many of those added bbls are coming from companies that have never made a profit. It's kind of like applauding the home construction industry for building a massive amount of houses that went empty after the housing bubble. Sure some company might have built a record amount of homes, but the company is bankrupt the employees are laid off, the houses are abandoned, so should those homes have been built?

Now as far as Armageddon's view on an economic crash, is being really early on a call the same as being wrong? well it depends on if you lost money on that call. I don't think you can fault the common sense analysis that we are going down a bad road with our current direction.
Would you fault someone for telling a heroin addict that they are going to crash and burn if they don't stop just because they lasted a lot longer than expected before they OD? No you wouldn't fault that good advice, you would tell them that the early advice would have worked even better had it been heeded in a timely manner.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 10:24:32

wildbourgman wrote:is being really early on a call the same as being wrong?


I'd say so, yes. I'd also say that saying there will be a downturn in an economy when we've been in one of the longest stretches without a recession in history isn't really prescient. The economy IS ultimately cyclical. It's just that doomers always think downturns are a one-way-street into mutant zombie bikers.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby wildbourgman » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 10:36:56

asg70 wrote:
wildbourgman wrote:is being really early on a call the same as being wrong?


I'd say so, yes. I'd also say that saying there will be a downturn in an economy when we've been in one of the longest stretches without a recession in history isn't really prescient. The economy IS ultimately cyclical. It's just that doomers always think downturns are a one-way-street into mutant zombie bikers.



That's fair, but I don't think that Armageddon is predicting a garden variety recession, because of the way we propped up the economy even a garden variety recession could be very traumatic to the world. At some point central banks and profligate fiscal spending will go too far. I think we are going into uncharted territory that's doesn't seem sustainable on a number of fronts.

Also I agree with the cyclical nature of things but it seems cyclical on a downward trend where politicians and central bankers pick the numbers they like and throw away the numbers they don't like. National debt, pension health, sub prime autos, all of these things and more certainly don't look very good to me.

I think some would like to point to Japan as a future where these things don't crush you, but I don't think our culture is anywhere close to that of Japan.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 10:41:51

wildbourgman wrote:I think dissident's post sums it up, we are playing word games in order to claim we are a net exporter.
figures don’t lie, but liars figure
I also think you have to take into account how many of those added bbls are coming from companies that have never made a profit.


The EIA data is about adding up the barrels. Having filled out their forms from the industry perspective, the only economic question they asked was a backhanded one, and that was the companies current reserve estimates.

And so when barrels headed out are less than barrels headed it, even ol' Monte Meyers could do the math on that one.

wildbourgman wrote:Now as far as Armageddon's view on an economic crash, is being really early on a call the same as being wrong?


He was claiming the crash happening back in 2006/2007. So yes, 12 or 13 years later it is completely accurate to say his call was way early. I haven't reached the point in his written record to know when he began playing the broken clock/kick the can angle, I would postulate it would be post 2010/11 when it became obvious that his earlier hysteria hadn't worked out. I'll bet him and Short were both REAL excited in 2008 though, seeing their proposed Rapture event nearing fruition.

wildbourgman wrote:well it depends on if you lost money on that call. I don't think you can fault the common sense analysis that we are going down a bad road with our current direction.


A point that as far as I'm concerned has been valid since Aug 15, 1971. And is meaningless if it is just used to predict doom tomorrow, wait two days, and repeat endlessly. I didn't begin to get irritated about it all until Ronny was running the joint.

wildbourgman wrote:Would you fault someone for telling a heroin addict that they are going to crash and burn if they don't stop just because they lasted a lot longer than expected before they OD?


Of course not. I would fault someone for telling the heroin addict they are doing to die tomorrow because of their habit, waiting 2 days, and then repeating themselves endlessly while the addict happily continues on their merry way, doing sometimes better, sometimes worse, and the warnings have exactly the value that Armys incessant McDoom calls do. None.

Did you miss the part where peak oilers tried this game for a century now, and came off looking quite the worse for it after the most recent round?

wildbourgman wrote:No you wouldn't fault that good advice, you would tell them that the early advice would have worked even better had it been heeded in a timely manner.


Of course no one would fault good advice. But how many times does the parrot tell them they are going to die, and them not dying, before you tune out the parrot. The heroin addict in a short period of time doesn't pay any more attention to a parrot than the scientific and analytic folks did peak oilers. Endless repetition certainly has never been mistaken for proof of concept.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby wildbourgman » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 10:50:31

Good stuff Adam, I think this is one of those wait and see things once again. As far as peak oil it might be like the old quote about the stone age didn't end due to a lack of stones, although it may be that scarcity (what some could call peak oil) drives us to the next big thing.

Personally, I think we are being imprudent in many areas of macro economics and the longer we get away with it and keep doubling down the worse the outcome will be (at some point). I don't think that's crazy talk.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 13:13:13

wildbourgman wrote:Good stuff Adam, I think this is one of those wait and see things once again. As far as peak oil it might be like the old quote about the stone age didn't end due to a lack of stones, although it may be that scarcity (what some could call peak oil) drives us to the next big thing.


When we begin not coming in contact with those nasty liquid fuels anymore at the local CO2 emissions support stations, and our budget suddenly has more $$ in it, we are interested, A natural human reaction. When we roast surprised Corvette, Mustang and Camaro owners out of stoplights while nary breaking a sweat, we are enthralled!

I began in the intrigued category, after a test drive or two thoroughly understand the enthralled part, and don't need driven to the next big thing. The current family debate is Tesla, or VW micro-van. In green.

wildbourgman wrote:Personally, I think we are being imprudent in many areas of macro economics and the longer we get away with it and keep doubling down the worse the outcome will be (at some point). I don't think that's crazy talk.


I think we are HORRIBLY imprudent. Kicked it off in 1971, and where it goes, nobody knows. The crazy talk are those who have been crying wolf for so long they lack any credibility. The world doesn't need parrots. It needs people thinking. Once upon a time, debt was going to end the world. Then, it turned out it was used to save the world. Those claiming it would end the world skipped right over that part, in order to parrot that it will end the world. The only thing I learned from high debt, back when Ronny was President and other parrots were claiming debt would end the world, was that parrots can't think. They can only parrot. And there are things in motion that might lead to a bad outcome, debt might be involved, but the parrot doesn't know that, can't plan for it, and can't even argue about what they parrot. They just parrot.

Keep your powder dry, and when the worm turns, watch for opportunity. I figured 2008 was just a once in a lifetime event, but if it is once in a generation, then maybe I'll get another crack at a financial windfall before retirement.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby wildbourgman » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 13:33:19

AdamB wrote:
Keep your powder dry, and when the worm turns, watch for opportunity. I figured 2008 was just a once in a lifetime event, but if it is once in a generation, then maybe I'll get another crack at a financial windfall before retirement.



We will see my friend. Good hunting!
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby Zarquon » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 23:40:40

1:
2019 US Ice Cream Exports higher than Milk Imports. US now Officially a Frozen Dessert Superpower to rival Italy. MAGA!


2:
US Dependency on Foreign Cows lowest in 40 Years


Which headline gives you a warmer, fuzzier feeling? Which one is more likely to confuse the average reader? And why have you never seen the ice cream and milk statistics commingled before?
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