Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

What's up with the Repo rate?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Revi » Fri 08 Nov 2019, 13:07:53

I guess the market's way up lately, so that's something. Everything's fixed this week!
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7305
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 08 Nov 2019, 16:04:45

sparky wrote:.
I'm not so sure about the importance of the trade deals ,
they certainly matter but seems to be used as an excuse to move the stock markets
in a time of very low return on money investment , money flow to shares
the returns are slim but better than lending money
so the stock market valuations are just financial refuge for lone desperate trillions of bucks

Well, certainly they don't matter if they're not real. It would mainly be about helping confidence that reasonable growth is feasible going forward.

At least if China isn't making more short term threats re trade, that's better than things have been with them.

Unfortunately, as per usual, how can anyone have any confidence over what Trump says when the story changes daily in some cases, or what he says defies objective reality in many others?

I'll give him a break on the things open to political interpretation -- since all "successful" politicians play the spin game. But on the rest, not so much.

The stock market will end up where it ends up, re the overall economy and confidence. If the recent turmoil re all the negative trade news and fears hadn't happened, we probably would have set the stock market records earlier, but could well have ended up in the same place.

There's FAR too much fixation over day to day and even month to month stock market movements, IMO. The markets are trying to digest a LOT of information, often conflicting information, and they're also trying to look 6 to 12 months ahead. Little wonder the short term meanderings are so random.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7387
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 12:12:45

The general trend, over a temporary move in one direction or another, is what matters. That's precisely why I am worried about the anti-globalization of Trump. Globalization, and the actual US dominance of the result rather than the perceived failure, have caused much of the stock market run up that everybody is pointing to when they cite the markets as proof that everything is well. Will there be a change? Will that change come about because of the perception of failure, or some new position that seeks to curry favor with those who feel that way, but still embraces globalization?
Will we pull back from the world we are on the cusp of achieving? Even slightly altering its approach could be dangerous for the US, as there really is talk of abandoning the dollar as the world's reserve currency https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/31/de-dollarization-russia-china-eu-are-motivated-to-shift-from-using-usd.html?&qsearchterm=reserve%20currency. That's much easier to do, if other countries perceive that the US no longer takes the stance that open markets are the best thing for it, but, instead, offers some sort of compulsion that incites resentment among even historical allies.
User avatar
evilgenius
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2699
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Stopped at the border.

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 12:53:33

evilgenius wrote:The general trend, over a temporary move in one direction or another, is what matters. That's precisely why I am worried about the anti-globalization of Trump. Globalization, and the actual US dominance of the result rather than the perceived failure, have caused much of the stock market run up that everybody is pointing to when they cite the markets as proof that everything is well. Will there be a change? Will that change come about because of the perception of failure, or some new position that seeks to curry favor with those who feel that way, but still embraces globalization?
Will we pull back from the world we are on the cusp of achieving? Even slightly altering its approach could be dangerous for the US, as there really is talk of abandoning the dollar as the world's reserve currency https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/31/de-dollarization-russia-china-eu-are-motivated-to-shift-from-using-usd.html?&qsearchterm=reserve%20currency. That's much easier to do, if other countries perceive that the US no longer takes the stance that open markets are the best thing for it, but, instead, offers some sort of compulsion that incites resentment among even historical allies.

But surely the vast majority of people can see that Trump and most of his antics are an anomaly. Of course, electing someone like Warren who wants to see how rapidly she can steal wealth to buy the election is just a different sort of catastrophe, re much of what has made America successful.

So, let's assume America's days of global dominance are behind it, and China takes over: in terms of economic power, military power, and having the global reserve currency. (Given current trends, the question isn't if, but when).

I don't see why that's so "dangerous" for America. If America focused on spending for things like infrastructure and education vs. a gigantic military to "police the world", that would seem like a good thing for America. As long as the US maintains its nuclear arsenal and the will to use it in self defense, it's not like China is going to try to militarily conquer the US. (And in fact, primarily maintaining the capability could be the bulk of the US defense spending, at something like 20 to 25% of what it spends today, including a "normal" level or overall defense). If China did try to strongly attack the US and its top 50 or 100 cities get nuked, so much for China's dominance. And if China wants to pay a $trillion or more annually to do things like police the Middle East -- let them "enjoy" that role of global leader.

Despite endless concerns on the net re the dollar, currency strength is about trust at the end of the day, and the FX markets do trade over $5 trillion a day among all the major currencies. I have YET to see a convincing argument for why in the modern era, it matters much at all whether the US dollar is the world's reserve currency. Once the initial surprise induced volatility in the dollar passes, SO WHAT? I think all the histrionics over that are just another way for fast crash doomers to tell themselves there's yet another reason to expect "doom". If the dollar ends up, say, 20% or 30% weaker, it's not doom, it means foreign goods are somewhat more expensive.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7387
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 13:10:56

If China wants to pay a $trillion or more annually to do things like police the Middle East -- let them "enjoy" that role of global leader.


they most certainly will not elect to do that. What I witnessed in Africa over the years was Chinese national companies with zero regard for human rights, the environment or anything else that many believe are essential. As partners, they refused to participate in humanitarian investments, traded weapons for opportunities, blatantly stole technology and were more than willing to put their own people at risk. Maybe they are gradually changing and becoming more "responsible" but I acknowledge their culture is a lot different from our own, very hierarchical. I just can't see them stepping up as World Police unless there was something in it for them (which is a danger in itself).

So the US and Nato can decide to back off all responsibility and then I think it will be every megalomaniac dictator for himself. In keeping with what I think Trump is after which is insular countries and walking away from globalization. Good or bad depending on your perspective I suppose.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7316
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 09 Nov 2019, 14:04:07

rockdoc123 wrote:
If China wants to pay a $trillion or more annually to do things like police the Middle East -- let them "enjoy" that role of global leader.


they most certainly will not elect to do that. What I witnessed in Africa over the years was Chinese national companies with zero regard for human rights, the environment or anything else that many believe are essential. As partners, they refused to participate in humanitarian investments, traded weapons for opportunities, blatantly stole technology and were more than willing to put their own people at risk. Maybe they are gradually changing and becoming more "responsible" but I acknowledge their culture is a lot different from our own, very hierarchical. I just can't see them stepping up as World Police unless there was something in it for them (which is a danger in itself).

So the US and Nato can decide to back off all responsibility and then I think it will be every megalomaniac dictator for himself. In keeping with what I think Trump is after which is insular countries and walking away from globalization. Good or bad depending on your perspective I suppose.

All that sound reasonable, given some of China's known behavior.

Now, a rational world community could try to work together, and basically have some sort of global military and economic truce/force which would make it highly unpalatable for at least major players to do really egregious things, given the economic and potential military consequences.

However, given the cluster-f*** the UN mostly is in reality, and how irrational much of the world is, it's not like I expect that any time soon.

As a US citizen, I'd be all for the US maintaining its role as global policeman -- but I'd want the various groups being protected to pay for those services. And I realize that figuring out the tab for, say, middle east oil policing is easier than for many of the other roles we play in force projection.

And yes, if we wanted much of NATO et al to play along with that sort of payment plan, it's a huge ask if we don't elect POTUSes more credible than Trump on the "playing well with others" front.

More and more, as I contemplate the global situation, I can imagine Toffler saying, "See? Future shock! I told you so.") :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7387
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 01:56:55

"FED'S HARKER SAYS ONE LESSON OF REPO VOLATILITY IS FIVE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS OWN ABOUT 80% OF RESERVES AND WERE NOT WILLING TO LEND"
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1704
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 20 Nov 2019, 13:49:03

Yoshua wrote:"FED'S HARKER SAYS ONE LESSON OF REPO VOLATILITY IS FIVE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS OWN ABOUT 80% OF RESERVES AND WERE NOT WILLING TO LEND"

That's a good point. Remember all the squawking about TBTF banks and how congress was going to "fix" that problem?

Then everyone goes back to sleep, and the problem is just as bad if not worse, but we now have new shiny regulations that are supposed to make everyone feel better.

This type of thing is my main objection to the liberal assumption that more government and regulations is always going to make things better and always worth the money spent.

That's no more true than the conservative assumption that cutting taxes is always going to make things better.

Reality is far more complicated than such simple rules of thumb (much less "truths") can come close to dealing with.

...

I'd be all for fixing the TBTF problem by breaking up the largest financial institutions and having maximum size rules. But in reality, that's not going to happen because politicians being re-elected is job one for them, no matter what they prattle about taking care of the voters, etc.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7387
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby sparky » Thu 21 Nov 2019, 17:00:38

.
It is now announced that the fed will be active in the repo market for the foreseeable future
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/20/the-fed ... ssues.html

Basically it's a government take over of a previously free market operation
the fed is putting about 100 Billions + per week as chips on the table with every indication they are ready to put as much and more
while this is not a gift but a stake , the financial institutions are ecstatic ,
stuff free market virginity , give us socialism with a bulging purse

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/1 ... ets-071142

What does this all means , I sure don't know
one can suspect things are not working as they should , maybe the lending market is gripping a bit
User avatar
sparky
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3355
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Sydney , OZ

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 01:42:09

From the first link in the above post
However, markets have treated it to some extent as a “QE4” type of operation.


So here we have a mainstream news conversion that the not-QE is a form of QE.

What I find more disturbing is that a month and a half after the Repo rate spike, the FED still does not believe that the problem is sorted out and that they need to keep intervening in that market to prevent greater problems.
EdwinSm
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 566
Joined: Thu 07 Jun 2012, 03:23:59

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 17:43:45

EdwinSm wrote:From the first link in the above post
However, markets have treated it to some extent as a “QE4” type of operation.


So here we have a mainstream news conversion that the not-QE is a form of QE.

What I find more disturbing is that a month and a half after the Repo rate spike, the FED still does not believe that the problem is sorted out and that they need to keep intervening in that market to prevent greater problems.

And yet they've said they're going to expand the balance sheet back to a certain extent, so this certainly isn't new news. They're doing what they'd planned to address the issue. Looking at the rates, which continue to smoothly fall to the lowest they've been in the 18 months shown by expanding the chart as far as it will for me. (See blue line in the chart at the bottom for the SOFR link below).

Now, we just had a negative QE, reducing the balance sheet by roughly $700 billion in the 18 or so months before this. Now they're undoing part of that because they decided they went too quickly. If calling QE, then negative QE then QE (size to be determined) QE makes the doomers feel better, dandy, but it's clearly not the repetitive QE's spawned by the great recession mess -- at least it certainly isn't yet.

https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/sofr

The closely watched SOFR has been below 1.6% for all of November, and right at 1.7% at the 99th percentile of borrowers -- trendless as a table top.

....

Where's all the hyperinflation, chaos, and ruin the clowns like those Armageddon were citing re Youtube videos, which was "certain" to arrive by November?

Somehow context and a sense of reality and perspective just doesn't seem to penetrate the skull of the hand wavers.

Oh, and in the real world, if TPTB aren't going to come to grip with the TBTF bank problem and high deficits are going to persist, things like this are going to be necessary. We're lucky things are as stable as they are, but who needs perspective when we can endlessly play Angry Birds?

When we have ACTUAL meaningful inflation, persistent and getting to the teens like in the 70's, then be sure and remind us because THAT would be a very bad sign indeed -- especially if the beltway doesn't wake up and minimize the size of the deficits.

As it is, the US inflation rate is persistently below the Fed target of 2% in 2019. Should we be all "alarmed" about that?

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+infl ... e&ie=UTF-8
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7387
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby sparky » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 21:05:14

"Somehow context and a sense of reality and perspective just doesn't seem to penetrate the skull of the hand wavers."

exactly porn-doomers have one basically valid idea and push it to the extreme edge and beyond

there always was guys with placard walking the sidewalk with "the end is night"
now the net especially you-tube is full of click-baits pronouncement
my favorite is financial end of the world "next quarter" they have been around for decades
of course this could happen ,it's only one of many more probable outcomes
certainly not because the prophet of doom know anything about anything
User avatar
sparky
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3355
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Sydney , OZ

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 04:00:52

sparky wrote:my favorite is financial end of the world "next quarter" they have been around for decades
of course this could happen ,it's only one of many more probable outcomes
certainly not because the prophet of doom know anything about anything

Except, apparently marketing that works, or they'd stop paying for the stupid ads.

But yeah, these clowns like "Stansberry Research" have played such games for years and literally, in year N + 1, will just change the date to the next year, and run the SAME AD. Wow, if only my career had been so easy. :roll:

It's enough to make one wish Karma was actually a thing in some cases.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7387
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 26 Nov 2019, 10:41:02

The M2 says the Fed issuing a lot of money just in time for X-mas! Thanks Santa!

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines ... onth-high/
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7305
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 28 Nov 2019, 02:23:07

Revi wrote:The M2 says the Fed issuing a lot of money just in time for X-mas! Thanks Santa!

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines ... onth-high/

And yet, the short term loans are NOT adding that magnitude, or anything close to it, to the Fed balance sheet, despite the implication otherwise. Of course, these clowns want to sell PM's, not be honest about what is happening in context. Gee, why am I not surprised?

I find it amusing that in this thread, clowns like this are cited by the doomers, and the folks that want to understand what is really happening (i.e. not promote an agenda, but just understand what is happening re the US and global economy) cite the Fed.

(Yeah, I know, here come the fast crash doomer conspiracy theories re the Fed, the MSM, and anyone else not buying their narrative of rapid doom, right on schedule). :shock:

Over the past month, re the latest weekly data available from the Fed, the balance sheet grew from 4.017 $trillion on Oct. 23rd to 4.079 $trillion as of Nov. 20th, which my math says is $62 billion for those 4 weeks.

Note how silly that makes the $103 billion figure cherry picked for one day look, which they "JUST HAPPENED" to place and word in a way to be easily misunderstood to mean balance sheet growth instead of total very short term loans made. :roll:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/

And the lending rates re the Fed to make the loans continues to drop. Not exactly a sign of panic, much less distress.

https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/sofr

....

But hey, such outfits have been braying many "reasons" to expect hyperinflation and economic doom and "BUY GOLD" constantly for the 35ish years I've been paying attention, and I'm certain, decades before that, and yet gold and silver grow at about the rate of inflation over time, so of COURSE, you should believe them THIS TIME, because what could possibly go wrong? :o

And, gold and silver prices have been trending DOWN since the excitement re the rate spike in Sept. Why are they so sanguine if there is so much doom from the Fed? :?:

...

Don't get medical advice from a horoscope. Don't get financial advice from these guys. Seriously.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7387
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 16:22:27

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/ban ... nt-america

Ive been following this for a bit. The repo market is a strange beast, but lately the symptoms point to something or some bank entity in some serious trouble. Its all great until it inst. Wondering right now who or what is needing this kind of coin to stay afloat. Its NOT a good trend.
User avatar
AirlinePilot
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 4369
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South of Atlanta

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 20:12:50

AirlinePilot wrote:https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/banana-republic-money-debasement-america

Ive been following this for a bit. The repo market is a strange beast, but lately the symptoms point to something or some bank entity in some serious trouble. Its all great until it inst. Wondering right now who or what is needing this kind of coin to stay afloat. Its NOT a good trend.

Just because zerohedge constantly "reports" doom, doesn't mean doom constantly occurred. How many times have they been wrong in the past 11+ years since the scary fall of '08? Certainly many thousand.

How often have they been right re something real bad happening re the economy? Certainly well under 1%.

For example, despite the doomtards at ZH constantly blaring about hyperinflation, death of the dollar, debasement of the currency, yadda yadda, when you look at the dollar, say via the DXY -- look back 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 30 years -- there's just no crumbling dollar there, like it or not.

And inflation? If economists had told us to expect 2%ish US inflation going forward a decade ago, everyone (including me) would have figured that was WAY too good to be true. And yet, here we are.

(And yeah, inflation in some things is high, but in things like electronics, it's actually strong deflation, so overall, it's quite tame and remaining that way.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7387
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby sparky » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 21:46:33

.
while I regard the porn doomers with utmost suspicion ,
one cannot but wonder at what exactly is going on behind the greenback curtain

why would the feds intervene if things were rosy ?

for consideration , the house of rep , by a massive majority approved the fiscal 2020 defense policy bill
some kind of zebra bill with plenty of funny appropriation attached to it
it's a budgetary Christmas tree , there is spending for everybody
one would think the budget deficit would be a concern ..but no !

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN1YF2RW
User avatar
sparky
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3355
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Sydney , OZ

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 14 Dec 2019, 10:21:55

Outcast,

I agree completely about ZH...its just that there are some places that will report on things the MSM wont. I only casually glance at ZH maybe once a week for entertainment value. I had a friend send me that link because we have been talking about this recently. He is much more attuned to markets etc and he knows im also kind of plugged in to what is going on here in the US fiscally long term. The "not QE" QE is an anomaly when our economy is supposed to be doing so well and he noted that also recently. IMHO the repo market action is one of those harbingers to pay attention to which can and will point to issues or problems which can shape the near future. For the few folks I know who follow the financial and global banking markets more closely than I do, this has their Spidey Senses up.

By the way, real inflation in the US is not what the Government says it is. Its probably on the order of nearly double the reported number. They are playing games with the CPI and have been for quite a while now.
User avatar
AirlinePilot
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 4369
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South of Atlanta

Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 14 Dec 2019, 15:03:31

sparky wrote:.
while I regard the porn doomers with utmost suspicion ,
one cannot but wonder at what exactly is going on behind the greenback curtain

why would the feds intervene if things were rosy ?

for consideration , the house of rep , by a massive majority approved the fiscal 2020 defense policy bill
some kind of zebra bill with plenty of funny appropriation attached to it
it's a budgetary Christmas tree , there is spending for everybody
one would think the budget deficit would be a concern ..but no !

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN1YF2RW

Sigh. Who said things were "rosy" or anything close to that?

Clearly there is some stress on the system, and clearly the Fed has reversed direction (for a while, at least) on the direction of monetary policy, after tightening by roughly $700 billion for roughly 18 months.

It can't be good news, and needing to ensure the TBTF entities have sufficient funding to avoid more overnight rate spikes is likely a part of it.

And as I've said upthread, no doubt, the continued nonsense re the large and seemingly endless budget deficits likely means more of the same, over time. It's part of the freight for such nonsense.

My main point is that all the numbers (not arm waving and empty claims but NUMBERS) don't imply short term doom OR even anything remotely like the 2008-2009 real estate mess and all the resulting financial issues is on the horizon -- for now anyway.

That's all I'm claiming. Long term, piling up a $trillion or more deficits by the US, endlessly, can''t end well.

At a minimum, at some point, another bout of nasty inflation like the 70's or worse might be used to reduce the magnitude of the real debt, for example. And when they play that game, they damn well better have as much of the debt long term as possible -- so the bond holders feel the short term pain instead of it just escalating the debt cost.

Of course, if they play that game, I'd expect that to hit US borrowing costs re just confidence, at least for a decade or so after the event.

OTOH, outfits like Argentina have completely screwed bond investors multiple times, and Argentina is a KNOWN banana republic -- so maybe they'll get away with it for little cost over time again, just like they did in the 70's re the gold window closing and the dollar becoming truly fiat.

Please don't think that just because I don't see this pointing to "short term doom" based on the numbers and the overall market reactions, that I in ANY way think things are "rosy".

I've been upset about the US budget deficit situation since I became an adult and started paying attention 40 years ago. (And, BTW, the fast crash doomers were loudly and persistently calling for in our face hyperinflation doom at that time).

...

And one thing to remember is that at the end of the day, like it or not, UNTIL proven otherwise, the US is the best house in a bad neighborhood. Who are the big boys going to trust more? The EU, in the middle of Brexit (and THEN what for the EU) -- plus all the growth rate problems of the EU? The Chinese? Though they may do fantastic long term, they have plenty of credibility problems of their own, especially re trustworthy financial reporting. Anyone else is too small or too tenuous re their probability of stability under stress to move the needle much.

So unless TPTB decide to panic and go to tangible assets and just abandon financial assets, there's a reason that despite the bleak deficit/debt situation, the US dollar holds up as well as it does (despite all the claims of the fast crash doomers).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7387
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 20 guests