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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 20 Nov 2019, 04:58:44

vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote: New study says 50% of Americans are making under $25,000.

That is a flat out lie. The real number is 19.1 percent while 41.7 percent make between $35K and $100K.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/203 ... in-the-us/

Good catch. When he tries to sneak such "facts" through, he tends to use either a nonsensical source (e.g. "twitter" isn't a source any adult would use who expects to be taken at all serously), or just skip using any source and make such a blatantly false claim as he did in the post you quoted.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 20 Nov 2019, 05:30:05

On GDP vs. Median household income. Per capita GDP is a good way to compare one nation against another but does not tell you much about the condition of the average person The total value of factory and mine production is added in even though only a few stock holders benefit from the sale of that production. Go back to pre civil war southern plantations. They might have had $100/ person GDP on the plantation but the slaves that produced the cotton received barely enough to eat while the Masters family lived like nobility.
Looking at family income is a much better measure of the state of the human condition. It includes wages paid ,investment income, and entitlement benefits paid but does not count the value of services that are available but not necessarily used by the consumer. Those would range from medicaid to transit systems and highways.


My own family income is pretty close to the US median and we get along pretty well.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 20 Nov 2019, 12:21:59

vtsnowedin wrote:On GDP vs. Median household income. Per capita GDP is a good way to compare one nation against another but does not tell you much about the condition of the average person The total value of factory and mine production is added in even though only a few stock holders benefit from the sale of that production. Go back to pre civil war southern plantations. They might have had $100/ person GDP on the plantation but the slaves that produced the cotton received barely enough to eat while the Masters family lived like nobility.
Looking at family income is a much better measure of the state of the human condition. It includes wages paid ,investment income, and entitlement benefits paid but does not count the value of services that are available but not necessarily used by the consumer. Those would range from medicaid to transit systems and highways.

Yup. You just confirmed my own thinking (and fleshed it out better) on the difference between those two, once I thought about more it AFTER the issue was pointed out to me.

Generalizing, just like for scientific issues, by using intuition to try to approximate / solve complex economic issues where lots of data comes into play is a BAD idea, no matter the intent. (I had first run across using this figure when comparing China's GDP per capita to the US's, trying to assess the likely size of the Chinese middle class family market for a Tesla. As you say, that's a MUCH more apt way to use GDP per capita.)

Lesson learned, by me anyway. :oops:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 05 Dec 2019, 12:58:16

GM is teaming up with LG chem to build a factory that will be able to make MORE batteries than Gigafactory 1.

The plant’s annual capacity is expected to be more than 30 gigawatt-hours “with flexibility for expansion,” according to GM. Tesla last year said its Gigafactory 1 battery plant with Panasonic in Nevada had reached an annualized rate of 20 GWh, making it “the highest-volume battery plant in the world.”


They aren't really going to get going with this until the mid 2020s so they are way behind, but it's still a big inflection point. In the meantime, expect the next generation of GM EVs to only be available in limited numbers.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 05 Dec 2019, 16:05:07

asg70 wrote:GM is teaming up with LG chem to build a factory that will be able to make MORE batteries than Gigafactory 1.

The plant’s annual capacity is expected to be more than 30 gigawatt-hours “with flexibility for expansion,” according to GM. Tesla last year said its Gigafactory 1 battery plant with Panasonic in Nevada had reached an annualized rate of 20 GWh, making it “the highest-volume battery plant in the world.”


They aren't really going to get going with this until the mid 2020s so they are way behind, but it's still a big inflection point. In the meantime, expect the next generation of GM EVs to only be available in limited numbers.

I thought that overall, a hell of a lot of new LI ION battery production was coming online sooner than that, especially from the Chinese. Couldn't GM just buy a lot of that on the open market in the mean time, if it wants to produce more EV's than just compliance volumes? (A quick google search seems to verify that I'm not just imagining or mis-remembering this idea. Links below.)

Not saying it will happen given GM's tepid history re the EV. Just saying it could, assuming a lot of the battery production will be sold to the highest bidder vs. being already spoken for re large programs like VW, Mercedes, etc. which will demand a lot of batteries already.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/14/gl ... ch-charts/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/20 ... 8cb3ee3786

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/batter ... city-2028/
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 05 Dec 2019, 17:20:19

The bread and butter of this site has historically been oil commodity analysis. But what I think will need to happen over the next few years is to start studying the emerging "lithium economy". While the FUD over mineral deposit availability is just that--FUD, battery supplies are indeed the limiting factor at the moment, moreso even than corporate will, so to be able to forecast how this transition is going down it will be necessary to track where these batteries are coming from and how things are scaling out.

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-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 05 Dec 2019, 18:07:51

I'm not too worried about battery supplies or the rare earth elements needed to make them. When customers start buying full EV cars in large numbers all the manufacturers will ramp up production and will tackle and solve any supply problems to keep their market share. There is no customer dollar out there that they do not plan to get.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 04:46:23

And I thought that Tesla was expensive!
BBC wrote:Lotus Evija: The £2.2m electric hypercar

The Lotus Evija will be the first all-British electric hypercar.

The company says it will be the most powerful production car in existence with the capability of accelerating from 0-186mph (0-300km/h) in "significantly" less than nine seconds, and with a maximum speed of more than 200mph.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/technology-50549634/lotus-evija-the-22m-electric-hypercar

But at least they will get around the queues that Tesla have had for recharging by a) limiting production to under 140 units next year. b) having super fast chargers (9 minutes to full).
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 07:35:40

I can't tell you the number of times I have been on a road where it was legal to drive 186MPH and wished I had a car that could do it!!! :razz:
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 18:23:36

vtsnowedin wrote:I can't tell you the number of times I have been on a road where it was legal to drive 186MPH and wished I had a car that could do it!!! :razz:

Actually, that's the main point for me re why the Tesla fanbois are so constantly hyped on fast 0-60 times.

So, OK. They can get to 60 mph in, say, 4 to 6 seconds (or even 3 or below in extreme cases) instead of the, say, 7 to 9 of a more economical car. (And in my world, an 8 second car is just DANDY for merging and passing which is all that matters for normal safe driving re needed acceleration).

But THEN what? Around here, everything is basically 55 mph except the 70 mph interstates. So if I have such a car and want to "push it", I can perhaps quickly accelerate (briefly) to 65 on 55 mph roads and 80 when merging onto the interstate, and then all that extra power is basically useless. Since tickets are expensive and a hassle, etc.

So for folks with easy access (and money to pay for it) to race tracks, to the Autobahn, or to a handful of other very fast roads, I suppose that's nice. But for something like 98+ percent of the motoring public that just want to go where they need to go reliably and safely, it's an extra 20 to 30 grand for NOT VERY MUCH, IMO.

But OTOH, if that's all they really have to brag about vs. all the negatives re Tesla service, value, etc., then there's that.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 18:27:32

vtsnowedin wrote:I'm not too worried about battery supplies or the rare earth elements needed to make them. When customers start buying full EV cars in large numbers all the manufacturers will ramp up production and will tackle and solve any supply problems to keep their market share. There is no customer dollar out there that they do not plan to get.

At a friend's house last night, I was watching a 60 Minutes segment (fairly recent I presume) on the huge areas on the Pacific ocean floor where there are trillions of nodules (stones) that can be scooped up or scraped up to make thousands of years worth of EV's re elements like Cobalt. And that's not even counting the big find on the ocean floor near Japan.

The expectation was to be able to go into commercial grade mining within 3 years. Something like 20 countries (but not the US) have leased ocean floor space in a large area to do such mining, and the Chinese seem to be at the forefront of the investment taking place.

I think all the hand waving over not having "enough" minerals to supply the EV industry is mostly just the usual uninformed "too good to be true" talk. And of course, that's before the concept of substitution even comes into play, should it be necessary. Oh, and recycling, of course.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 03:42:15

Outcast_Searcher wrote:an 8 second car is just DANDY for merging and passing which is all that matters for normal safe driving re needed acceleration


This is something people don't understand until they drive an EV for any length of time. The torque curve of EVs gives even budget EVs a huge advantage over ICE in everyday driving situations. ICE only has an advantage on the track.

For instance, I was behind a Mustang the other day and the driver decided to hit the gas pedal with the usual big boost in noise in exchange for only gradual acceleration and I thought to myself that if I were in Sport mode I probably could have smoked him, and done it smoothly and silently. I almost never floor the gas pedal because I have so much more power than I can really use. 201hp in a car this small is a lot.

It's just so much easier to produce sportscar-like performance with an EV vs. an ICE. That's why even the Cybertruck will be able to smoke dedicated sportscars. It's just the inherent advantage of electric drive.

There's just no getting around that ICE's days are numbered.

Once battery prices get low enough, it's just not going to make sense anymore to keep propping up outdated technology. Speaking of which...

https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-elec ... sla-2019-9

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... wh-in-2023

The writing is on the wall. It's not a matter of if the transition will happen now, just how long it's gonna take.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 11:24:46

asg70 wrote:There's just no getting around that ICE's days are numbered.


I don't know. Some say cost/mile is higher for tesla than for gas.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/do-t ... e-than-gas

For rapid adoption of electric cars it needs to show overwhelming advantages, both financial and otherwise. More so to overcome any of its inconveniences.

I have a feeling gas has a long future.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 11:31:47



Fox business? Seriously? Tesla used to offer free supercharging. Then it jacked up its prices. This is a known issue. Want to keep your cost per mile down? Don't use the supercharger network. Fast charging is not essential for everyday driving unless you live in an apartment or something.

BTW, the whole gas savings thing has been funny math ever since prices tanked a decade ago. EVs have been selling despite cheap gas, which is encouraging. But anyone here has to have an eye on gas prices creeping back upwards eventually. EVs laugh last.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 11:41:35

asg70 wrote:Want to keep your cost per mile down? Don't use the supercharger network. Fast charging is not essential for everyday driving unless you live in an apartment or something.


of course, of course. Don't do that, don't do this.

What's the OVERWHELMING advantage of electric again?
(P.S. The enormous torque to compensate for a small wiener, don't count).
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 11:46:46

asg70 wrote: EVs have been selling despite cheap gas, which is encouraging.

Are you sure?
Or do they sell mostly to yuppies either wishing for easy absolution from their climate sins, or as a status symbol shouting "I'm a top consumer dog buying everything fancy and new".

EVs laugh last.


Do you think so? I'm wondering how much electricity cost go up in lockstep with oil prices.
Do you remember 2008? The 150$ oil? My utility was quick in raising electric prices claiming increased oil prices as the culprit.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 12:27:23

mousepad wrote:I have a feeling gas has a long future.

So you don't see "peak oil" caused by supply shortages by 2040?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 12:34:31

mousepad wrote: I'm wondering how much electricity cost go up in lockstep with oil prices.
Do you remember 2008? The 150$ oil? My utility was quick in raising electric prices claiming increased oil prices as the culprit.

Perhaps no rise at all. The price of solar panels is dropping steadily and solar and wind power begs to be stored due to their intermittency. EVs are above all energy storage devices and the market can match the production of EVs to the installation of new wind , solar and even tidal power if that becomes practicable.
Also as we approach the down slope on world oil supplies prices for gas will rise and all EVs have to do is be cheaper per mile then gas to have the last laugh.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 12:45:05

vtsnowedin wrote:
mousepad wrote:I have a feeling gas has a long future.

So you don't see "peak oil" caused by supply shortages by 2040?


I don't know when peak oil will be. I think nobody knows.

But even if peak oil is next year, that doesn't mean oil is gone.
Every EV driven reduces oil consumption, reducing price, allowing somebody somewhere to gobble up the oil instead.

The question is, can electricity generation/cost be decoupled from oil/coal?
I don't know if it can. And if it can't then EV is no solution to an oil shortage.

Maybe we should try LESS CONSUMPTION as a real solution to our problems?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 09 Dec 2019, 12:51:07

vtsnowedin wrote:EVs have to do is be cheaper per mile then gas to have the last laugh.


Yes. And maybe they WILL have the last laugh. I don't claim to know.
But I claim that nobody knows. We're too early in the game to understand.
Can solar stand on its own feet and power the enormous supply chain of high tech that's need to produce them cheaply?

Maybe a small 1-cylinder scooter would be a more sensible choice in solving our peak oil issues going forward than a monster tesla truck?
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