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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 12 Nov 2019, 20:19:24

sparky wrote:.
There is simply no cost to global warming , its results would be overall positive
the Armagedon moaning is little more than hysterical noise
Nice if that proves to be true but considering how uncertain the science is both ways I would not like to place a bet on the final result.
I do think whatever we get the vast majority of us will muddle through but perhaps at a much reduced standard of living.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby sparky » Tue 12 Nov 2019, 23:36:20

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The possible decrease in the standard of living would have many causes
an increase in cost of the energy in the budget of household and industry would be one
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 04:25:20

sparky wrote:.
The possible decrease in the standard of living would have many causes
an increase in cost of the energy in the budget of household and industry would be one

Yes it would be difficult to assign causation to climate change as energy supplies will vary just from population and demand growth. But if summers become hotter cooling cost in the south will increase and storm and fire damage such as California is undergoing at present will all have to be paid for which will reduce funds available for discretionary spending.
On the other hand milder winters here in the north would save quite a bit on heating costs. I look forward to using a lot less wood. 8)
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby sparky » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 04:34:59

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Yes and there is much more land in the north than in the South
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 12:17:32

sparky wrote:.
There is simply no cost to global warming , its results would be overall positive
the Armagedon moaning is little more than hysterical noise


That is a statement completely without factual basis.

When I started my engineering study, the first statement I became aware of was "Murphy's Law" that "Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong!"

There is certainly a hell of a lot of truth to that so-called law:

Considering we are the product of a bunch of coincidences that were favorable to our current situation. At some point, it all tends to unravel. That's the 'anthropomorphic principle' which I never liked, because it never acknowledges the ultimate fate, that we will fade into the common mode of a microwave backround radiation!
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby sparky » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 01:59:48

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Good point , what might be the consequences of applying Murphy's law to renewable ?
they have proven to be expensive and unreliable

solar powered commuter trains transporting millions of people to work in the winter morning maybe
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Revi » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 11:23:52

sparky wrote:.
There is simply no cost to global warming , its results would be overall positive
the Armagedon moaning is little more than hysterical noise


Look out the window. See those flames? That's a result of global warming/climate change.

Maybe there will be no cost. Maybe not. You might want to get out if your house is on fire.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6DO3zbD83U
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby sparky » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 21:14:26

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We are having bushfire now , always had them always will

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Friday_bushfires
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Revi » Fri 15 Nov 2019, 07:56:49

sparky wrote:.
We are having bushfire now , always had them always will

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Friday_bushfires


http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/11 ... warms.html

I think it's going to burn back in most temperate places in order to get to a desert climate. Desert adapted plants need far less water. Trees will move higher and further towards the poles.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby sparky » Fri 15 Nov 2019, 14:26:34

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a warmer world is a wetter world ,
it's called the Clausius-Clapeyron equation and is known since the 1850ies
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clausius% ... n_relation

dry periods were when large quantity of water was frozen in the ice caps

there is only benefit in having a planet without ice caps as the earth has been for most of its past
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 16 Nov 2019, 11:18:59

Not seeing much climate change here this morning. It is the opening day of deer hunting (with rifles) and because November started on a Friday is about a week later then normal. This due to the season being pegged to end the Sunday after Thanks giving. Anyway we have had a very normal first snow of the season last week and this morning up on the back forty it was 10 degrees F with a biting wind. Two hours was all my old bones could stand. I know I know that is "just weather" but the climate is the sum total of weather but I could of used a bit of global warming about eight A.M.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby derhundistlos » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 21:07:25

Australia more so than many other locales is suffering from the pernicious effects of AGW right now. From record-breaking heat to widespread drought and immense wildfires to massive fish/terrestrial animal kills (tens of thousands of Fruit bats dropping dead from the heat) to the death of the colossal 344,000 square kilometers Great Barrier Reef, I am amazed that there is a single denialist in all of Australia; however, as demonstrated by "Sparky" even Australia's conservative government supports the notion that AGW is a hoax being perpetrated by scientists and environmentalists to raise money. One speculates how bad must conditions get before AGW Flat Earthers recognize reality.

Denialism is another form of insanity that is prevalent these days. AGW denialists assert the veracity of a position by proclamation. The denialists are so emotionally invested in their opinion that despite ever-increasing evidence to the contrary, the more entrenched they become. Despite the best efforts of the denialist community to refute the overwhelming evidence that ecological collapse is actually in progress, deep down inside they acknowledge the truth. They are fully aware that a perfect storm is now forming, but the coping mechanism for these people is just to deny every piece of evidence that becomes manifest.

Like the US, Australia is suffering from an epidemic of Dunning-Kruger syndrome as it relates to those citizens who prefer to deny the reality of ecological collapse. It’s why denialists are so certain that they’re right. The Dunning Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which individuals, who are unskilled at a particular task, believe themselves to possess above-average ability in performing the task. The miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others.

With summer in Australia rapidly approaching, the news will be replete with more stories from Australia about the consequences of AGW.

Of all the decisions any society must make, perhaps the most fundamental ones concern the natural world, for it is upon the earth’s biota – its plants, animals, waters, and other living substances – that all human existence ultimately depends.

It seems impossible to imagine that a technologically advanced society would choose to destroy itself, but this is the current state of affairs. We have failed to address the consequences of our rising population and an ever-degrading environment.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 22:08:19

derhundistlos wrote: The denialists are so emotionally invested in their opinion that despite ever-increasing evidence to the contrary, the more entrenched they become. Despite the best efforts of the denialist community to refute the overwhelming evidence that ecological collapse is actually in progress, deep down inside they acknowledge the truth. They are fully aware that a perfect storm is now forming, but the coping mechanism for these people is just to deny every piece of evidence that becomes manifest.


First of all great post. Thank you.

The denialist position has a religious component.

My father was raised an Anabaptist who then became an atheist. Him and I used to have this argument. I shared his atheism but I believed religious people actually believed in the fairy tale stories of their religions and my father always said that the religious know deep down inside that it is all fakery as he put it.

You believe the AGW denialist deep down inside actually acknowledge the truth. That is like my dad's position. I find myself still standing by the position I used to take that the denialists, however incredible this may seem, actually believe AGW is not real.

How can you ever get to the honest truth about that question when denialism is a form a self delusion.

I struggle with something else. Let's wave our imaginary wands to suddenly make every denialist on the planet into a believer of AGW. How much would this really help our species at this point out of the check mate of human overshoot?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 22:24:17

I find myself still standing by the position I used to take that the denialists, however incredible this may seem, actually believe AGW is not real.


It is clear you haven't a clue about what the arguments being made are. Like many here you buy into a theme you are told, revert to the 97% say it is right BS (which has been proven to be completely fabricated) and don't seem to realize that all of the doom and gloom that you and others here have been wringing your hands over is a product of model forecasting, nothing more. Those forecasts have been shown to be incorrect against actual temperature data. The vast majority of scientists who are skeptical about these forecasts all understand CO2 methane, NO2 and water vapor are greenhouse gases. They all agree that man has contributed somewhat to climate change. What has been the argument for many years that you have completely ignored is the degree to which this has happened and that lands into the research on equilibrium climate sensitivity or the degree to which the earth will warm with a doubling of CO2 after stabilization. To say that they actually don't believe in AGW tells me you have very little actual knowledge about the arguments out there.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 00:39:48

rockdoc123 wrote:It is clear you haven't a clue

How many of your posts here at po.com started with this sentence?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 14:08:46

rockdoc123 wrote:
I find myself still standing by the position I used to take that the denialists, however incredible this may seem, actually believe AGW is not real.


It is clear you haven't a clue about what the arguments being made are. Like many here you buy into a theme you are told, revert to the 97% say it is right BS (which has been proven to be completely fabricated) and don't seem to realize that all of the doom and gloom that you and others here have been wringing your hands over is a product of model forecasting, nothing more. Those forecasts have been shown to be incorrect against actual temperature data. The vast majority of scientists who are skeptical about these forecasts all understand CO2 methane, NO2 and water vapor are greenhouse gases. They all agree that man has contributed somewhat to climate change. What has been the argument for many years that you have completely ignored is the degree to which this has happened and that lands into the research on equilibrium climate sensitivity or the degree to which the earth will warm with a doubling of CO2 after stabilization. To say that they actually don't believe in AGW tells me you have very little actual knowledge about the arguments out there.


You must be disingenuous rockdoc. First, very few 'denialist' even understand any details of AGW. The vast majority of denialist 'journalism' is completely of the partisan nature of 'this is what my side believes'. In your case, you seem to be committed to the arguments that AGW is merely the fabrication of science being interpreted beyond it's bounds. The very few scientists that have had a reason to defend denialism are retreating as their arguments are being knocked down one-by-one. Yes, it's complicated. At best, I think you have uncertainty on your side, but that is all.

I think Ibon was referring to just common folk who really don't know even though denialism has been part of their orientation. Now, politicians, who have a vested interest in all of this, are they disingenuous? Of course, they are. You cannot get someone to admit something that they are getting paid well enough to stay in denial of (well, that was a bad paraphrase).
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby sparky » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 17:17:09

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I remember when the talk was of runaway greenhouse effect
the seas would boil , lead melt .......that was soo crap everybody just shrugged

so it got reinvented as Antropogenic global warming ,
the bits about the Antropogenic share were tossed about but really the global warming is real since 1980

since this didn't spook the good folks Global warming was pushed up to Climate Change
as a linguistic trick this is neat , anyone denying this is like denying motherhood

polar bears and picture of the summer melt were conflated

small flat Pacific islands had more tears shed upon it could be one of the cause of sea rise
this obscure the fact that they are grossly overpopulated with no source of income ,
they have BIG problems climate change not being the biggest or more pressing

the melting of the permafrost is presented as a disaster , when the places could use some warmth
any Siberian will tell you permafrost is a big impediment to growing potatoes

Warming and a slight increase in CO2 is very beneficial to agriculture

So why all the moaning ?
a militant bunch has captured the medias >>>>>politicians attention and is pushing for a Green dictatorship
the ultimate goal being the destruction of the industrial suburbia society
a return to a scratch farming by disease ridden peons forced into vegetarianism being seen as a good thing
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 17:34:22

First, very few 'denialist' even understand any details of AGW. The vast majority of denialist 'journalism' is completely of the partisan nature of 'this is what my side believes'. In your case, you seem to be committed to the arguments that AGW is merely the fabrication of science being interpreted beyond it's bounds. The very few scientists that have had a reason to defend denialism are retreating as their arguments are being knocked down one-by-one. Yes, it's complicated. At best, I think you have uncertainty on your side, but that is all.


I guess reading comprehension is not one of your strengths. What I have said all along is there are a host of scientists who understand the uncertainties with respect to climate modeling and projections into the future and they demonstrate that continually by published articles identifying points of conflict. They aren't vocal about their research, just have their heads down and publish the results (as scientists should do). There are literally hundreds of publications in peer-reviewed literature over the past two years alone that point to the possibility of a low ECS (hence much lower warming), impact of the sun on climate that is not measured by irradiance, impact of natural variation etc. all which have the potential to mean the role of CO2 whether it be man-made or natural is less significant than the panic artists here want you to believe. Where do you get the idea there are very few scientists? From the press no doubt? Maybe you should do some actual research and understand what the issues are? And when I say research I don't mean reading an article in a newspaper written by someone with a journalism degree.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 18:34:46

No, I don't follow this as a scientist would. But, for instance? And if uncertainty is on your side, then it is also on my side. Regardless of all this, are you still 'denying' AGW? How is that possible by any rationalist, scientific reading of what we know? Denialists, that actually do KNOW, like to point to some archane data and say 'There! That's it. That's what I'm talking about.' Really? Just make it simple :-)

(So, do they know that they 'KNOW'? I guess self-deception, maybe, can run deep.)
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 19:26:00

Regardless of all this, are you still 'denying' AGW? How is that possible by any rationalist, scientific reading of what we know? Denialists, that actually do KNOW, like to point to some archane data and say 'There! That's it. That's what I'm talking about.' Really? Just make it simple :-)


OK...as I said you are having some serious problems with comprehension.
When someone says "deny AGW" they mean that man has no role in climate change. As I have said for over a decade on this site that is not what either I nor the vast majority of scientists who you and your ilk refer to as "deniers" believe or state, CO2 is a greenhouse gas there is almost zero argument out there on that point. What they see as being the big question is how big of an impact man has...if ECS is low then that impact is necessarily low, if there are other indirect "forcings" or feedbacks from the sun or natural variation that aren't currently included in models then those models may overstate projections hence man's impact ends up being much lower. As an example an ECS of 1.5 or 2 is almost certainly not going to create huge problems and there is a plethora of papers published that are pointing to that level.
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