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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 12 Nov 2019, 08:58:10

Pretending economics doesn't work doesn't make it so.

The price of natural gas varies a LOT. It's reacting to MARKET CONDITIONS over time, same as it ever was.


So says the guy who thinks that owning a can of beans is a call/ put play on a gas lease.

$2.50 gas for the lessor is a fools play; you are letting them give your gas away to pay some executive’s salary Put price limits in your lease.

This planet has been cooling down for the last 500 million years as the CO2 level collapsed from 4000 ppm to 280 ppm.


Is CO2 the cause, or the effect. Maybe that great big ball in the sky has something to do with it? Maybe the recent arrival of the wave front from explosions out of the galactic core does? The Earth was hit by the shock wave of a supernova 12,000 years ago. A supernova is likely to ruin your day; and quit a few of them afterward. It "could" be the monkeys, with the help of a few cow farts? California is so sure of it that they want to put gas bags on old Nellie! They think it has something to do with the high cost of fire insurance. California is what happens when the Lilliputians get out of their cage.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 12 Nov 2019, 09:42:02

Yoshua wrote:The CO2 molecules are building blocks of life and manna from heaven for plant life on this planet.

This planet has been cooling down for the last 500 million years as the CO2 level collapsed from 4000 ppm to 280 ppm.

The poles froze and ice ages started as this planet was turning into a snowball. These are signs of a dying planet...which probably is a natural event in the universe.


Ah, ETP die-hards are also AGW denialists.

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HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 12 Nov 2019, 09:59:21

I'm not denying anything. I'm just giving a longer view of time.

Plant life consumes CO2...die...and is pressed into the earths crust...where they form coal, oil and natural gas. The CO2 level in the atmosphere has declined during this process.

As we extract fossil fuels and burn them, we are recycling CO2 back into the atmosphere. The CO2 level in the atmosphere is today 400 ppm.

The world is turning greener and warmer again.

Perhaps 400 ppm is a good level for humans to thrive?

The sun activity is of course also a part of the equation.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 12 Nov 2019, 11:56:01

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He is lying again! As usual. Lilliputians are little! If he thinks that is little, his girl friend must look like a pregnant Holstein. No wonder he is so downright nasty all the time.

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Debt Market Bubble's Bursting - The 'CLO Sausage Factory' Is Stalling

Suddenly there a host of doomsters warning of imminent crisis in CLOs.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/debt- ... y-stalling

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The next monetary/ financial crisis will begin in the credit markets. It is a critical component of the monetary system that is not, and can not be controlled by the FED. It is starting to unwind, and as the debt continues to grow it will spread to other areas of the credit system. The BBB rated bond market is a $7 trillion market that is now in the process of melting down.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 12 Nov 2019, 12:49:42

U.S banks have been selling those CLO's to yield hungry European and Japanese banks that are living in a negative yield environment. I guess ZIRP and QE has some negative effects after all?

Since neither the ECB or the BOJ can print dollars to cover the losses...I think we might have problem.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby SRSroccoReport » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 09:05:42

The U.S. Shale Industry Hit A Brick Wall In 2019

The Great U.S. Shale Industry Machine is finally running out of steam.  What looked very promising for the shale industry in 2018 seems incredibly bleak this year.  And, if the situation doesn't turn around quickly for the shale industry, 2019 might turn out to be the year that production ultimately peaks in the United States.

There several factors that have negatively impacted the U.S. Shale Industry in 2019; the compounded annual decline rate, the massive debt--inability for shale companies to raise money, and the stunning amount of new wells necessary to increase overall production.  While shale experts are knowledgeable of the typical 60-70% first-year decline rate of shale wells, not much is mentioned about the "compounded annual decline rate."

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Over the past few years, the shale industry increased the average well production considerably by drilling longer laterals, increasing the number of stages with higher pressures, and the amount of fracking sand and fluids. While this pushed production up significantly, the downside is that the decline rate becomes even more severe.

This next chart, including production ONLY for 2017, 2018 and 2019, shows that the Production Profile seems to be peaking even though the Well Profile heads up in the same trend:

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Again, this chart is only showing the production for 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each color represents the production added each year. For example, the 7,636 wells brought online in these top four fields in 2017 peaked at 2,769,316 bopd in December and then declined to 727,795 bopd by August 2019. Thus, 2017’s shale oil production lost 2 million barrels per day in 20 months.

The 9,953 wells added in 2018 had peak production in December at 3,818,141 bopd and declined to 1,828,641 bopd by August 2019. What took 2017’s production 20 months to lose 2 million barrels per day, only took eight months for 2018’s production to lose the same amount.

This is the nasty side-effect of the COMPOUNDED ANNUAL DECLINE RATE.

For shale oil production to grow moderately this year in these four fields, the industry needed to add 11-12,000 wells. Unfortunately, if the industry continues with the current monthly well rate for the rest of the year, only 9,000 wells will be added in 2019, down nearly 1,000 wells from the previous year. Thus, if there isn’t an increase in the monthly well count for October through December, production will likely continue to weaken by yearend.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 11:44:51

Yoshua wrote:Perhaps 400 ppm is a good level for humans to thrive?
The sun activity is of course also a part of the equation.


These are ignorant and self-serving things to say.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 12:02:16

A shale well is a pressure drive well. To maximize total recoverable resource the extraction process must be at a rate where the temperature in the formation does not decline until very late in the cycle. With the declining completion rate that is being observed the only possible explanation for the recent increased production is higher extraction rates from existing wells. To do that chokes must be opened. The physics of the process is indisputable. The shale operators are no longer operating to produce max URR from their wells. They are operating to produce max production. They are committing suicide, and grabbing every nickel as they go out the door, because they know that their days are numbered. The bond market (aka shadow banking system) has made it imminently apparent that they are no longer going to infinitely finance a losing proposition.

Once the US peaks so also has the world. Considering the immensity of the world debt situation, and the associated, and impending collapse of the monetary system it is likely to be completely irrelevant. One more bullet in the head is not going to change the outcome.

The oil age is ending and it is hardly even being mentioned. The next, soon to arrive depression, will not be televised. The media are hired henchman of a failing system.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby marmico » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 12:47:35

The 9,953 wells added in 2018 had peak production in December at 3,818,141 bopd and declined to 1,828,641 bopd by August 2019. What took 2017’s production 20 months to lose 2 million barrels per day, only took eight months for 2018’s production to lose the same amount.


So what. The 2017 vintage wells declined 74% after 20 months and the 2018 vintage wells declined 52% after 8 months. You should revisit Enno's colorful charts next year to determine the 2018 vintage decline rate after 20 months.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 13:55:22

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..........OK, Boomer' Stop Buying Stocks, Fidelity Warns


Fidelity has sounded the alarm on this dangerous observation following the threats the next recession could arrive in the near term and reprice equity markets significantly.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... lity-warns

I hope Ma and Pa Retiree have been reading their Twitter accounts. Has anyone else got the memo? Did Fidelity mention the possible end of the known world? The $48 trillion dollar question on every trades lips is: "Can Trump make it to next November before payout on the question comes due". Skirting $48 trillion in new world debt formation over the next year is going to require some interesting maneuvers. With self serving, self centered, and corrupt bureaucracies running the government getting all the critters to run in the correct direction, at the same time is going to be quit a trick. Good luck with that one, Donald.

So, all the greedy old farts are going to get toasted. How sad! OK, so I don't have much sympathy for my fellow man?? It has been that way since I discovered that dogs make better friends than monkeys!
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 14:45:43

So what. The 2017 vintage wells declined 74% after 20 months and the 2018 vintage wells declined 52% after 8 months. You should revisit Enno's colorful charts next year to determine the 2018 vintage decline rate after 20 months.


So Enno didn't plot the output of 4,598 shale wells to discover that they all follow a logistic function. The average shale well declines 79% in the first 20 months. The average shale well (and their are 1.7 million of them) declines 62% in the first 8 months. Why would anyone want to revisit colorful chats that are wrong? Deja vu?

A shale well is a pressurized container with a hole drilled into it. All pressurized containers with a hole drilled into them follow the Ideal Gas Law. Ratios of decline will all stay the same. IP and URR may vary depending on P/T and composition, but decline ratios are constant.

Now, Marmy redefines the Laws of Physics, pulls out 3 Freddy charts, and the coupon from the back of a Cracker Jacks box. And, science is serviced.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 17:12:19

To maximize total recoverable resource the extraction process must be at a rate where the temperature in the formation does not decline until very late in the cycle. With the declining completion rate that is being observed the only possible explanation for the recent increased production is higher extraction rates from existing wells. To do that chokes must be opened. The physics of the process is indisputable. The shale operators are no longer operating to produce max URR from their wells. They are operating to produce max production.


Nobody monitors temperature and tries to maintain it through production, that is likely one of the dumbest things you’ve said. Pressure and critical rates are what are managed
Focussing on long reach wells and core areas and stacked pay is what causes rates to rise. Nobody in their right mind opens up the choke to produce at AOF. Again stupid comment as the problems that would ensue in a dual K system with a mix of liquids and gas is immense
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 17:27:16

A shale well is a pressurized container with a hole drilled into it. All pressurized containers with a hole drilled into them follow the Ideal Gas Law. Ratios of decline will all stay the same. IP and URR may vary depending on P/T and composition, but decline ratios are constant.


More incredible stupidity you continue to surpass yourself
The dual decline rate of tight gas is based on theory and well supported by production history ( and I have posted that data previously).
I have explained numerous times and to great depth how production moves from hyperbolic decline to exponential decline. It is well known in the industry, published in numerous papers now taught to graduate level engineering students at University. But rather than look something up you just revert to misunderstanding of when and how to apply the Ideal Gas Law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 18:03:03

shortonoil wrote:[
Now, Marmy redefines the Laws of Physics, pulls out 3 Freddy charts, and the coupon from the back of a Cracker Jacks box. And, science is serviced.

And the sum of what you've written on this site serves what, besides ignorance and shrill hyping of short term doom? I vote for absolutely nothing.

Ignoring reality and constantly making things up, and defending your turf by endlessly name calling like a 5 year old is a way to go I suppose, but then barking at someone else re poor science is a record setter re irony.

Given your lack of ability to learn, I don't expect you to get it.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 18:06:05

asg70 wrote:
Yoshua wrote:Perhaps 400 ppm is a good level for humans to thrive?
The sun activity is of course also a part of the equation.


These are ignorant and self-serving things to say.

One thing the fast crash doomers show repeatedly is an absolute obliviousness to facts, no matter how clearly they're presented, and no matter pervasive they are.

It would be comical if it weren't such a sad commentary on the reality of modern education in much of the first world.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 16 Nov 2019, 10:33:23

Nobody monitors temperature and tries to maintain it through production,


Ever seen a well log? Nope; didn't think so.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 16 Nov 2019, 21:06:11

shortonoil wrote:
Nobody monitors temperature and tries to maintain it through production,


Ever seen a well log? Nope; didn't think so.


Some of us did them for a living. But we aren't welshers.

And we don't normally run them while producing you half baked oil field ignoramus.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 16 Nov 2019, 21:11:44

shortonoil wrote:A shale well is a pressurized container with a hole drilled into it. All pressurized containers with a hole drilled into them follow the Ideal Gas Law. Ratios of decline stay the same.


What a moron. Would you like to discuss how stupid THIS idea is? How many thousands dual perm systems can I recall with changes in the ratio of decline? Oh, that's right! Probably all of them!

Oil field ignoramus strikes again! I haven't been around in months Short, have you paid off on any of the bets your ignorance caused you to lose yet?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sat 16 Nov 2019, 22:07:33

To address some of the recent well production profile changes in the LTO world, one would need - I think - at least some knowledge of what is actually occurring.
People who persist in looking at historical data in the form of older well profiles are continuing to overlook the ongoing, very rapid pace of technological innovation that shows no signs of abating.

One area - the widespread adoption of High Viscosity Friction Reducers (HVFR) is enabling FAR higher conductivity along with WAY better proppant placement in completions using these (ever evolving) polymers.
An added bonus is that produced water is more and more used for new fracs.
(Brand new, $300 million water treatment plant by Antero is already obsolete).

The precision and placement of individual entry points (perforations) has led to so called Extreme Limited Entry Perforation which incorporates stages of somewhat homogenous rock - vis a vis breakdown pressure differential - so as to effectively maintain a 1,500/2,000 psi ever expanding 'pressure bubble'.

Proppants, including scouring micro proppants, enter these ultra tiny fissures and remain propped due to real time monitoring, pump pressure/volumes, and - crucially - the effective use of both far field and near wellbore diverters with which to control frac geometry.

This is just a tiny, tiny sampling of what these guys are doing on EVERY single well in EVERY single play.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 16 Nov 2019, 22:25:32

coffeeguyzz wrote:This is just a tiny, tiny sampling of what these guys are doing on EVERY single well in EVERY single play.


Short doesn't care, I mean, understanding actual operations, well logs, standard completion or production engineering, he just doesn't care. He isn't interested in learning, he has been looking for excuses for the world to end since he was saying Bush was going to cause it. Just another rapture event seeker recycling excuses for why it just doesn't happen tomorrow as he would wish.

As honest as any welsher. As ignorant as any tin horn.
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