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THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby BahamasEd » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 10:32:12

So I'm going to guess that Ghawar is going to be shut in for a while with the damage that has been done to Abqaiq this weekend. Hopefully we'll get more information later in the week about how long.

Looking around I find that it's been producing about 3.8 mbd lately, I didn't find much on the current water cut but back in 2006 it was reported as around 46% so I would guess it's much higher now and if I remember correctly Abqaiq is where they filter out the water and other things before exporting the oil.

So, Can it be shut in and then restarted? will it damage what's left of the field?

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Is this event just a cover for Ghawar running out of oil?
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The total energy cost of producing and delivering a gallon of gasoline to the end consumer must be less than the energy in a gallon of gasoline for it to be commercially viable.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 11:50:56

So, Can it be shut in and then restarted? will it damage what's left of the field?


the field is on water drive which means full pressure support. When fields run into problems with regards to restarts it is almost always related to lack of pressure. Aramco has spent an enormous amount of manpower, computer power and money on digitizing virtually everything related to their oilfields. A shutdown would be managed through their SmartField project which captures pressure, temperature, gas, water etc all measured at the wellhead and in the newer wells with downhole sensors. That data is integrated with the gathering system data, water knockout, separators etc so that pressure throughout the system would be maintained.

Given the amount of controls they have plus the fact that Ghawar has been subjected to countless full-field models means there is likely very little chance of permanent damage. It might have been different if the drone strike had been on gathering systems, or individual wells but it was downstream at the refineries which is much less problematic for the field. Bad news for production (no where to take it) but not for field life.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 13:16:28

rockdoc123 wrote:It might have been different if the drone strike had been on gathering systems, or individual wells but it was downstream at the refineries which is much less problematic for the field.


No doubt the Iranians are aware of the importance of the control systems at Ghawar and other KSA oilfields.

The attack on the KSA export facilities was an act of war by Iran. If there is no military response by KSA and/or her allies, then additional future attacks by Iran on KSA are a distinct possibility, and there is a possibility Ghawar will be the target of a future attack.

Cheers!
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 14:04:45

The attack on the KSA export facilities was an act of war by Iran.


Proof please. The Iranians have formerly denied any involvement, the northern Yemenis rebels have claimed responsibility.
Iran supplying north Yemen with drones doesn't implicate them any more than the Chinese being implicated in the decade-old war in South Sudan even though China supplied the vast majority of weapons. The US sells arms all over the world, that doesn't mean they are responsible for what that country does with them.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 15:47:26

the northern Yemenis rebels have claimed responsibility.....


Rather then automatically accepting everything the Yemenis rebels say, I suggest we look at all the available evidence. The US has AWACs style air cover at all times in this area, and no doubt will be able to determine the exact source of the attack. US Sec. of State Pompeo has already pointed the finger at Iran...chances are the US military and the US government already know what happened and the US will likely release this data at some point in the future.

Even if this was a drone attack that originated in Yemen, the drones that did the attack can operate over 900 miles of territory and are an advanced high tech military weapon system that was supplied by the Iranian military. Tehran had to approve transferring these advanced weapons to Yemen, and chances are Tehran was involved in planning the attack, and its also likely there were Iranian technicians operating the drones that carried out this attack.

These drones require operators and a high-tech communications center to control them. I doubt such a high tech communications center exists in any of the Yemeni rebels caves or tents.

IMHO, we're going to find out eventually that Iran's fingerprints are all over this attack on KSA.

Cheers!
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 16:28:26

Plantagenet wrote:
the northern Yemenis rebels have claimed responsibility.....


Rather then automatically accepting everything the Yemenis rebels say, I suggest we look at all the available evidence. The US has AWACs style air cover at all times in this area, and no doubt will be able to determine the exact source of the attack. US Sec. of State Pompeo has already pointed the finger at Iran...chances are the US military and the US government already know what happened and the US will likely release this data at some point in the future.

Even if this was a drone attack that originated in Yemen, the drones that did the attack can operate over 900 miles of territory and are an advanced high tech military weapon system that was supplied by the Iranian military. Tehran had to approve transferring these advanced weapons to Yemen, and chances are Tehran was involved in planning the attack, and its also likely there were Iranian technicians operating the drones that carried out this attack.

These drones require operators and a high-tech communications center to control them. I doubt such a high tech communications center exists in any of the Yemeni rebels caves or tents.

IMHO, we're going to find out eventually that Iran's fingerprints are all over this attack on KSA.

Cheers!




If Iran is the culprit, then what’s next?
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 16:38:11

#BREAKING: US Vice President Mike Pence and US Secretary of Defence Mark Esper leave White House after National Security Council meeting on Saudi attack/Iran- via


Have a bad feeling about this
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 18:25:43

Even if this was a drone attack that originated in Yemen, the drones that did the attack can operate over 900 miles of territory and are an advanced high tech military weapon system that was supplied by the Iranian military. Tehran had to approve transferring these advanced weapons to Yemen, and chances are Tehran was involved in planning the attack, and its also likely there were Iranian technicians operating the drones that carried out this attack.


Again "likely" is not proof. You wanting it to be Iranians in charge doesn't make it so. You state it was supplied by the Iranian military yet you have no proof other than perhaps a view that they are bad Persians who hate Saudis and Americans. You realize the northern Yemenis have a slogan "God is great, death to the US, death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam", I suspect they have as much reason to be blamed. The Iranians supply arms and equipment to the Yemenis, and the US supplies the Saudis with arms and other equipment. Is the US then at fault for any Saudi sponsored terrorism? The US sells arms to lots of countries and there are no conditions as to what the buyer does with said arms.


These drones require operators and a high-tech communications center to control them. I doubt such a high tech communications center exists in any of the Yemeni rebels caves or tents.


Have you ever been to Yemen? You realize that the rebels occupy Saana the capital, a city which has been the centre of first Jewish then Islamic history in this part of the world for nearly 3000 years? For someone who travels as much as you do such a comment is incredibly insular.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 20:16:18

rockdoc123 wrote:
Even if this was a drone attack that originated in Yemen, the drones that did the attack can operate over 900 miles of territory and are an advanced high tech military weapon system that was supplied by the Iranian military. Tehran had to approve transferring these advanced weapons to Yemen, and chances are Tehran was involved in planning the attack, and its also likely there were Iranian technicians operating the drones that carried out this attack.


Again "likely" is not proof. You wanting it to be Iranians in charge doesn't make it so. You state it was supplied by the Iranian military yet you have no proof other than perhaps a view that they are bad Persians who hate Saudis and Americans. You realize the northern Yemenis have a slogan "God is great, death to the US, death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam", I suspect they have as much reason to be blamed. The Iranians supply arms and equipment to the Yemenis, and the US supplies the Saudis with arms and other equipment. Is the US then at fault for any Saudi sponsored terrorism? The US sells arms to lots of countries and there are no conditions as to what the buyer does with said arms.


These drones require operators and a high-tech communications center to control them. I doubt such a high tech communications center exists in any of the Yemeni rebels caves or tents.


Have you ever been to Yemen? You realize that the rebels occupy Saana the capital, a city which has been the centre of first Jewish then Islamic history in this part of the world for nearly 3000 years? For someone who travels as much as you do such a comment is incredibly insular.


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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby Cog » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 00:08:41

The USA has considerable assets in the region to determine from where this attack originated and who controlled it.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 00:30:13

You state it was supplied by the Iranian military yet you have no proof ....


The Iranians have spent years copying US drone technology and the Iranians have recently unveiled a well-developed drone program, with several drone models and remote control systems to "fly" the drones from a base. As far as we know the Houthis do not manufacture drones and do have this kind of technology.

Now think about those facts.

How do you imagine the Houthis got the sophisticated drones used in the attacks if they don't manufacture these sophisticated drones themselves?

Think about it. How did that happen?

I can explain this again in even simpler language for you if you still don't understand.

CHEERS!
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby tita » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 06:35:10

Plantagenet wrote:
You state it was supplied by the Iranian military yet you have no proof ....


The Iranians have spent years copying US drone technology and the Iranians have recently unveiled a well-developed drone program, with several drone models and remote control systems to "fly" the drones from a base. As far as we know the Houthis do not manufacture drones and do have this kind of technology.

Now think about those facts.

How do you imagine the Houthis got the sophisticated drones used in the attacks if they don't manufacture these sophisticated drones themselves?

Think about it. How did that happen?

I can explain this again in even simpler language for you if you still don't understand.

CHEERS!


There are many ways that sophisticated military equipment end in the wrong hands. Especially in an area like Middle-East where borders and nationalism doesn't mean much against identities related to various ethnic-religious clans spread all around this area regardless of the way we see the borders.

This attack could come from anywhere. Sure, the drones were produced by Iran, but how do you know when they were produced, who bought them, which roads they took, where they were launch and who launched them?

The US have been lured and manipulated through decades to play a game of power where they don't know the rules.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby GHung » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 07:43:31

Russian oligarchs who wanted to get more money for their oil?
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 08:49:31

Back to the subject of the thread, the oil field itself.

For any of the actual oil field experienced experts, not the armchair variety sort.

As I understand it if a field that is under artificial water drive is allowed to rest for six months or longer a considerable quantity of the remaining oil MAY migrate internally separating from the water layer and gathering higher in the formation.

A) Is that an accurate understanding?

B) Is this likely to happen in Ghawar?

c) If this does happen my understanding is it will result in a month or more of greatly reduced water cut when pumping resumes, is that true?
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 12:16:16

As I understand it if a field that is under artificial water drive is allowed to rest for six months or longer a considerable quantity of the remaining oil MAY migrate internally separating from the water layer and gathering higher in the formation.

A) Is that an accurate understanding?

B) Is this likely to happen in Ghawar?

c) If this does happen my understanding is it will result in a month or more of greatly reduced water cut when pumping resumes, is that true?


I don't think this is very likely. My understanding is the water drive was designed for full voidage replacement meaning that the pressure in the reservoir should remain what it was under production when shut-in. If the pressure dropped you could see gas separating from oil to form a gas cap or contribute to a pre-existing gas cap. The point of a water drive is to try to pick up oil that was left in pore spaces behind the front of virgin production. That water drive has a front behind which residual oil saturation is very low. If the field is shut in the saturation front doesn't move but will remain static as the oil is largely bound in pore space. Now what might happen is that any gas that is no longer in solution might migrate around in the reservoir to find the gas cap or create a new one. Gas is more mobile than water and water is more mobile than oil (generally).
This is all generalized however given reservoirs behave in different manners at different times. There was a paper published years ago that spoke to the changing wettability of northern Ghawar as production advanced. There is quite a bit of difference between recovery factor in an oil wet versus a water wet reservoir and they need to be handled slightly differently with regards to secondary recovery.
That being said Aramco has the largest full field model anywhere dedicated to Ghawar. It includes inputs from virtually every aspect of production and transportation so if there are any potential problems from a shutin they would have identified them and are almost certainly intervening.
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THE Ghawar Thread merged

Unread postby ZoyaDibirova » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 17:40:36

I must be missing something obvious. How do I tell if Ive posted in a thread? is there something I have to turn on?
Thanks
-SH

Edit: well, I found the "view my posts" button; but is there a graphiclike the scout site that shows ive posted in a thread while just browsing the forum?
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 10 Oct 2019, 10:44:55

rockdoc123 wrote:
So, Can it be shut in and then restarted? will it damage what's left of the field?


the field is on water drive which means full pressure support. When fields run into problems with regards to restarts it is almost always related to lack of pressure. Aramco has spent an enormous amount of manpower, computer power and money on digitizing virtually everything related to their oilfields. A shutdown would be managed through their SmartField project which captures pressure, temperature, gas, water etc all measured at the wellhead and in the newer wells with downhole sensors. That data is integrated with the gathering system data, water knockout, separators etc so that pressure throughout the system would be maintained.

Given the amount of controls they have plus the fact that Ghawar has been subjected to countless full-field models means there is likely very little chance of permanent damage. It might have been different if the drone strike had been on gathering systems, or individual wells but it was downstream at the refineries which is much less problematic for the field. Bad news for production (no where to take it) but not for field life.


So, they are way more vulnerable to a cyber attack? It looks like, from what's been said above, that a cyber attack that spoofed sensors could damage Ghawar. How long would such a thing have to go on before it was noticed in ways other than various people's computer readouts? Are the chances good that it would be caught in time?
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Oct 2019, 14:11:15

evilgenius wrote:So, they are way more vulnerable to a cyber attack? It looks like, from what's been said above, that a cyber attack that spoofed sensors could damage Ghawar. How long would such a thing have to go on before it was noticed in ways other than various people's computer readouts? Are the chances good that it would be caught in time?

Do we know that they have all that on the internet? Or unlike the US, are they perhaps wise enough to control such systems on a private network, not easily attacked via cyber?

I don't know. But just because the US is stupid about that, should we assume KSA is also?
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 10 Oct 2019, 18:19:59

I don't know. But just because the US is stupid about that, should we assume KSA is also?


by its very nature SCADA is susceptible to cyber attacks just like any other electronic data. My understanding is because of ongoing threats from actors such as Iran, SA and Aramco have spent a considerable amount of effort in securing their systems (there are a number of cybersecurity firms headquartered in Riyadh). A few years back I was involved with a startup that was looking at integrating old and new SCADA systems for access through the web. Security was identified as an issue but as with most of these things, the trick is to limit points of access and control them. I suspect Aramco has some challenges given they have some of the oldest SCADA out there (they were early adopters) and that is mixed with state of the art new stuff. Knowing there is a potential problem is the best first step to securing your system I think.
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