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What's up with the Repo rate?

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What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Revi » Thu 26 Sep 2019, 07:15:22

The Fed pumped a bunch more money in to keep the Repo rate down(overnight lending for banks). It spiked to 10%, but the Fed has tamped it down with 142 billion plus whatever they put in last night.

Is this a problem?

Anyone know what this means? I guess they trade bonds and stuff for the repo, which may mean that the value of those instruments is suspect, or they feel that they need 10% for safety, or something...

Please help me shed some light on this.
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Revi » Thu 26 Sep 2019, 08:34:46

Fed has dumped in a lot of money. Consider that the US national debt only goes up about a trillion a year, so they've dumped in 1/8 of that just in the last week to keep this key rate down there.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/caitlinlong/2019/09/25/the-real-story-of-the-repo-market-meltdown-and-what-it-means-for-bitcoin/#5cf799147caa
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 26 Sep 2019, 13:05:05

Revi wrote:Fed has dumped in a lot of money. Consider that the US national debt only goes up about a trillion a year, so they've dumped in 1/8 of that just in the last week to keep this key rate down there.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/caitlinlong/2019/09/25/the-real-story-of-the-repo-market-meltdown-and-what-it-means-for-bitcoin/#5cf799147caa

Thanks Revi for a great link to that Forbes article. It's refreshing to see someone discuss the issue in plain English and without using obvious hyperbole.

I had no idea the numbers were so huge in terms of the collateral risk, vs. what's on the books.

And given that the problem still exists IN SPADES over a decade after the peak of the financial crisis, with apparently NOTHING of substance done about it is outrageous, IMO.

To be clear on where we are, the rate spike was 9/17, and although the Repo rates have crept back above 2%, they're nowhere near the spike levels -- at least not yet. But I don't like how the amounts the Fed is using to keep the market in check are growing, so something is still apparently brewing. The conclusion from the article that some big bank (or similarly key financial institution) is in trouble seems logical.

Looking around, I think some Fed web pages are good places to look at the actual numbers, without the hyperbole, opinions, commentary, politics, etc. that might come with articles on the subject.

1). The SOFR, or Secured Overnight Funding Rate, shows what the rates are, and in what proportion. And the chart at the bottom makes the trend visually intuitive, shows the top rate (not just at the 99th percentile), and also shows the overall volume for the borrowing (not just the Fed overnight Repo operations, which are small compared to the overall overnight borrowing).

This confirms that the rate spike (thus far) was mainly for 9/16 - 9/18.

https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/SOFR

2). The magnitude of the Fed overnight repo operations is shown with the following link. The total numbers of treasuries seem to correspond pretty well with the daily news on the repo operations.

The objection I have to this data (which is why I found the SOFR data above) is the "high" rate indicated by the SOFR (see 9/17, for example), which doesn't seem to reflect what's going on with the rates, at least accurately -- showing the top treasury rate paid at only 3.25.

If someone with facts or other links can explain why this is and why the big difference, that would be helpful and appreciated, for us wanting to keep an eye on events like this.

https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/aut ... 01/01/2000

3). I got the link above, showing the detail of the last 25 Fed Repo operations by clicking on the link near the bottom of the main Fed Repo and Reverse Repo page, here:

https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/temp

You can get longer term data on such Fed operations via the links at the bottom of the web pages for links 2 and 3.
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Revi » Thu 26 Sep 2019, 13:19:44

Interesting. I wonder which bank is in trouble? Deutsche Bank is down quite a bit, but that's not a US bank.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... story.html
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 26 Sep 2019, 14:59:15

As I understand it's not only that a particular bank that was hard up enough to pay 10% pa for an overnight loan, it's that treasuries ain't all their cracked up to be as collateral. (repo market is overnight lending between banks using some type of collateral, treasuries are one)

For every US Treasury security outstanding, roughly three parties believe they own it.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/caitlinlon ... 521ec77caa

No wonder banks aren't falling over themselves to loan into that market, 2008 isn't so long ago to forget when it locked up tight.
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 26 Sep 2019, 17:30:08

Here is a good article which points out several reasons why this is almost certainly not anything like the 2008-2009 liquidity crisis

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4292772-despite-repo-rate-debacle-liquidity-issue

Despite Repo Rate Debacle, Liquidity Isn't An Issue

There is, however, a considerable disparity between the current period of repo market turbulence and the far more widespread credit market stress of 2008. At that time, there was widespread concern over the financial health of lending institutions. Today, by contrast, banks posting record profits and the balance sheets of financial institutions are much stronger than they were in 2008. Against the present environment of strong corporate profits, low interest rates, and a strong credit market, the likelihood is high that the latest spike in overnight rates will prove to be a temporary anomaly and not the start of another crisis.
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Revi » Fri 27 Sep 2019, 10:18:05

Well that's a relief...
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby phaster » Sun 29 Sep 2019, 13:05:28

FWIW something that perhaps might be related to Repo (the overnight lending for banks) is

Eurodollars are time deposits denominated in U.S. dollars at banks outside the United States, and thus are not under the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve. Consequently, such deposits are subject to much less regulation than similar deposits within the U.S. The term was originally coined for U.S. dollars in European banks, but it expanded over the years to its present definition.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar


it is assumed that the fed controls the money supply, BUT this only applies w/ in the USA,... WHAT IF shadow banks outside of the USA w/ little or no regulation, initiated loans,... in other words created their own supply of "digital" Eurodollars?!

it would be akin to the left hand not knowing what the right hand of the same financial institution is doing,... if you think this isn't possible then consider the story of various divisions of Deutsche Bank loaning money to POTUS

http://www.npr.org/2019/05/22/725893104 ... ong-affair

considering the bigger picture of an over all increase of the money supply due to unregulated Eurodollars over the years,... since money seeks its best return I don't think it is too hard to imagine that off shore money eventually finds its way into the real estate as well as stock market (which would bid up prices)

I'm just a basic science knucklehead that has never taken a formal economics or finance class,... but all my math background tells me at some point the figures on the balance sheet,... don't balance

AND the only reason there has not been a problem thus far is because the dollar is the international medium-of-exchange/store-of-value/unit-of-account

http://www.investopedia.com/financial-e ... ncies.aspx
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Sinclarsorus » Sun 29 Sep 2019, 13:28:10

Yeah I think it was Citi Bank requested a low interest overnight loan at the discount window. For some reason the normal available funding in this market (Between banks and private investors) was too low for the money needed in normal bank operations, so the interest went up in a short time to 10% interest. These are short term loans to be paid off in three months time.

Normally when short term debt interest is higher than long term it signals a market top. So not sure long term how this will affect everything.

Because the Federal Reserve offered the low rate loans to the one bank in trouble, they have to offer the same deal to all the other member banks that own the Federal Reserve. So over the about month there was a schedule to offer up to 75 Billion per day into the middle of October. One deal was over 105 Billion on one day. It started with 54 Billion just to the first bank and they were only worth like 100 billion, so its a lot of money. Most banks will jump on this deal even if they don't need it because the spread on interest is so big they will make a ton of money with their credit card operations, selling the debt they create at high interest of 16% and higher to these low interest short term loans etc. Sme banks can build up a 100 of millions of credit card operations every day.

Basically the 2008 bailout was the same type of operation, many banks took the money anyway, but really didn't need it, but the rates were so good. Normally overnight funds from other banks or investors of all types supply this service at around 8 percent or less, but banks are making 16 percent say and make money that way.

The schedule I saw had series of loans averaging 75 Billion per day for over three weeks time span. But that doesn't mean the banks will use all that. But like I said one day it was 105 Billion, I guess because all the banks jumped on the deal for the up coming holiday sales, So our credit cards should work this Christmas sales.
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 11:23:45

Revi wrote:Well that's a relief...


Revi believes in Facebook Currency for collateral...HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

OMG, the idiocracy will believe in any shit nowadays.

Cog, I just took a shit in a plastic bag and went down to the local bank and said this is my collateral. They accepted it...hahahahaha.
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 12:20:56

StarvingLion wrote:
Revi wrote:Well that's a relief...


Revi believes in Facebook Currency for collateral...HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.



I was being funny. I don't know what's going on, so that's why I started this thread.
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Revi » Wed 02 Oct 2019, 10:12:28

Here's a vid that starts out with a discussion of the repo rate. Watch just the first 20 mins.

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines ... ing-truth/
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 14:09:31

Revi wrote:Here's a vid that starts out with a discussion of the repo rate. Watch just the first 20 mins.

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines ... ing-truth/

Using such sources on a "buy PM's from me!" site isn't exactly where I'd want to look for credible, objective information.

Looking at the data, this is continuing to calm down at a trend. There was a slight uptick in the SOFR rate at month end, which wasn't surprising. The amount of borrowing and the rates are looking like a return to normal.

I'm not buying that all things considered over time, that all these majors are clamoring to frack gas and oil because it is a major money losing proposition over the life of the fracking process.
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby phaster » Sun 06 Oct 2019, 18:38:43

Revi wrote:Here's a vid that starts out with a discussion of the repo rate. Watch just the first 20 mins.

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines ... ing-truth/



interesting thesis [one that seems to make the most sense]

just happens last wed had an invite to hear what one of the NY fed officials had to say,...

John Williams John Williams
President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Vice Chairman, FOMC (@ucsd)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbnrCel6ZAk&t=43m49s

I'm just a basic science knucklehead that has never taken a formal economics or finance class,... but my math background tells me at some point the figures on the balance sheet,... don't balance

and as an interested spectator IMHO the only reason there has not been a problem thus far is because the dollar is the international medium-of-exchange/store-of-value/unit-of-account

http://www.investopedia.com/financial-e ... ncies.aspx

which sorta ties into the the dollar shortage [thesis] is being caused by speculators dumping dollars into USA shale (to keep the party going awhile longer since some producers like venezuela are offline AND as long as the dollar is used for settlements,... POTUS can continue his crusade against Iran, etc.)

FWIW found these news bits interesting,...


Repo glitches expose flaws in Fed’s approach

Central bank might have acted more quickly if the repo market were its primary target

Overnight repo rates — the interest rate paid to borrow cash in exchange for Treasuries for just 24 hours — began rising on Monday, September 16. But it was not until after 9am the next day that the New York Fed, which is responsible for implementing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, stepped in to try to ease the strain.

According to John Williams, president of the New York Fed, the announcement was timed to coincide with the release of data showing a rise in the effective federal funds rate. That makes the mandate for intervention clear.

...But the Fed’s sortie into the repo market — since repeated several times — has stirred conversations about whether policymakers are focused on the right short-term rate. Fed funds was once the driving force of cash markets. Now it is a back-seat passenger and repo is at the wheel.

...fed funds is hardly representative of the dynamics affecting short-term lending markets. As was seen in September, its basic function — to track the Fed’s target rate — has broken down, because it is now susceptible to movements in other rates such as repo rather than driving them.

...Since the Fed has started reversing QE, reserves have fallen and some — but not all — players have consequently run short of cash again. Such shortages are threatening the ability of the Fed to maintain control of the effective fed funds rate


http://www.ft.com/content/d2cd761a-e64d ... 5a370481bc



also in the fed repo related news,...


Fed to Keep Pumping Liquidity Into Repo Market Through October
By Alex Harris

October 4, 2019, 11:02 AM PDT Updated on October 4, 2019, 11:37 AM PDT

...The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Friday that it will conduct operations for overnight repurchase agreements through Nov. 4, having previously only scheduled them through Oct. 10. The central bank also announced eight new term offerings to provide additional funding through this month.

...These measures are officially aimed at keeping the fed funds rate within the central bank’s target range. While those measures did bring the market more in line with this, there was a brief move upward in repo rates at the end of September as participants fulfilled quarter-end funding needs.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... gh-october
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 08 Oct 2019, 11:35:23

phaster wrote:
Revi wrote:Here's a vid that starts out with a discussion of the repo rate. Watch just the first 20 mins.

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines ... ing-truth/



interesting thesis [one that seems to make the most sense]

just happens last wed had an invite to hear what one of the NY fed officials had to say,...

John Williams John Williams
President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Vice Chairman, FOMC (@ucsd)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbnrCel6ZAk&t=43m49s

I'm just a basic science knucklehead that has never taken a formal economics or finance class,... but my math background tells me at some point the figures on the balance sheet,... don't balance

and as an interested spectator IMHO the only reason there has not been a problem thus far is because the dollar is the international medium-of-exchange/store-of-value/unit-of-account

http://www.investopedia.com/financial-e ... ncies.aspx

which sorta ties into the the dollar shortage [thesis] is being caused by speculators dumping dollars into USA shale (to keep the party going awhile longer since some producers like venezuela are offline AND as long as the dollar is used for settlements,... POTUS can continue his crusade against Iran, etc.)

FWIW found these news bits interesting,...


Repo glitches expose flaws in Fed’s approach

Central bank might have acted more quickly if the repo market were its primary target

Overnight repo rates — the interest rate paid to borrow cash in exchange for Treasuries for just 24 hours — began rising on Monday, September 16. But it was not until after 9am the next day that the New York Fed, which is responsible for implementing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, stepped in to try to ease the strain.

According to John Williams, president of the New York Fed, the announcement was timed to coincide with the release of data showing a rise in the effective federal funds rate. That makes the mandate for intervention clear.

...But the Fed’s sortie into the repo market — since repeated several times — has stirred conversations about whether policymakers are focused on the right short-term rate. Fed funds was once the driving force of cash markets. Now it is a back-seat passenger and repo is at the wheel.

...fed funds is hardly representative of the dynamics affecting short-term lending markets. As was seen in September, its basic function — to track the Fed’s target rate — has broken down, because it is now susceptible to movements in other rates such as repo rather than driving them.

...Since the Fed has started reversing QE, reserves have fallen and some — but not all — players have consequently run short of cash again. Such shortages are threatening the ability of the Fed to maintain control of the effective fed funds rate


http://www.ft.com/content/d2cd761a-e64d ... 5a370481bc



also in the fed repo related news,...


Fed to Keep Pumping Liquidity Into Repo Market Through October
By Alex Harris

October 4, 2019, 11:02 AM PDT Updated on October 4, 2019, 11:37 AM PDT

...The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Friday that it will conduct operations for overnight repurchase agreements through Nov. 4, having previously only scheduled them through Oct. 10. The central bank also announced eight new term offerings to provide additional funding through this month.

...These measures are officially aimed at keeping the fed funds rate within the central bank’s target range. While those measures did bring the market more in line with this, there was a brief move upward in repo rates at the end of September as participants fulfilled quarter-end funding needs.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... gh-october


Gee, its nice of these crims to tell us the bank runs begin on Nov 5.
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Oct 2019, 13:43:22

StarvingLion wrote:Gee, its nice of these crims to tell us the bank runs begin on Nov 5.

There are clowns who sell "investment advice" who tell us that a major stock market crash will happen month X, EVERY YEAR.

And some of them are even good enough to just change the year, EVERY YEAR, and repeat the same claim, extending the ad.

Very useful information, like your constant claims we'll all be starving -- in 5-ish years -- same as it ever was. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby phaster » Thu 10 Oct 2019, 10:18:32

Outcast_Searcher wrote:There are clowns who sell "investment advice" who tell us that a major stock market crash will happen month X, EVERY YEAR.

And some of them are even good enough to just change the year, EVERY YEAR, and repeat the same claim, extending the ad.



as a market player, one has to pay some attention to the other players (even the ones who repeat the same claim EVERY YEAR),... this is because its a reflection of market psychology,... the big trick is to be able to pick up the "signal" (i.e. market direction) among the high level of "noise"

FWIW just listened to a big picture discussion about the global economy,...

BBC The Inquiry (Are we heading for a global recession?)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csytgm

personally I follow two market sayings "the trend is your friend..." AND "time in markets, not timing of markets" BUT have a hedge of sorts which is "I never bet money you can't afford to lose,..."

so far so good,...

Image

guess the only way I'll know if my survival strategy works is when the market(s) hits something really hard
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 10 Oct 2019, 11:59:22

like your constant claims we'll all be starving


Well, I was at the local Ford Dealership yesterday and they had giant bins to 'Fight Hunger'. Why would that be in a dealership?

Answer: The Internal Combustion Engine means the kids get thrown under the bus. TINA.
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Oct 2019, 12:16:50

phaster wrote:personally I follow two market sayings "the trend is your friend..." AND "time in markets, not timing of markets" BUT have a hedge of sorts which is "I never bet money you can't afford to lose,..."

so far so good,...

The trend is your friend is a good rule of thumb, which is too bad for the perma-doomers, since the trend is up most of the time.

If your main strategy is "time in the markets", i.e. let the market money grow in diversified efficient funds for decade after decade, then no "playing" is needed. You just eventually get rewarded for enduring the volatility, by sticking with it. Oh, and zero trading expenses helps. Oh, and with the right funds, by not trading, it's also extremely tax efficient until you finally need the funds, and are presumably in a lower tax rate in retirement.

So my discipline is to just do that with 90% or more of my funds in the market, and limit the unwise "playing around" to 10% or less. It keeps me entertained and prevents me from badly screwing up.

After decades, the return on the 10%- is close enough to the return on the disciplined 90%+ that it's DEFINITELY NOT worth the extra time, unless you're a geek like me and just enjoy the learning and the mental exercise of the active investing decisions.

Each to their own. I wish I were wise/disciplined with 100% of my investments, but as the wise old blind monk said in the "Kung Fu" movie pilot, "Who among us is without flaw?".
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: What's up with the Repo rate?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Oct 2019, 12:20:27

StarvingLion wrote:
like your constant claims we'll all be starving


Well, I was at the local Ford Dealership yesterday and they had giant bins to 'Fight Hunger'. Why would that be in a dealership?

Answer: The Internal Combustion Engine means the kids get thrown under the bus. TINA.

Yes. No one at a business has ever had a "fight hunger" campaign or a food donation bin. :roll:

No doubt, a brand new sign we're all doomed tomorrow. :P

What's next? You discover that not only is the earth not flat but that it moves, and ask us why that should be and imply a new reason for doom?
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