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Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 09:35:10

dohboi wrote:From asg's just-cited article:

If warming exceeds 2 C, Antarctica's melting ice sheets could raise seas 20 meters in coming centuries

...At the current rate of global emissions we may be back in the Pliocene by 2030 and we will have exceeded the 2°C Paris target. One of the most critical questions facing humanity is how much and how fast global sea levels will rise...


Don't we already have enough CO2 equivalent already in the atmosphere to push us to, or close to, 2C?



Actually based on paleoclimate records we already have close to 3.5C-4.5C baked in. That is why I keep saying time to stop talking about 2C and get to work adapting/preparing for altered climate.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 12:22:47

However deep a hole we're in, it's still a good idea to STOP DIGGING!!! :)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 13:07:43

dohboi wrote:However deep a hole we're in, it's still a good idea to STOP DIGGING!!! :)



We sold our last property in Florida a few days ago. I was there and saw impressive building going on along the coast,major projects, high density urban living within 3 miles of the ocean with growth projections that are completely disconnected to the events unfolding in the decades up ahead; salt water intrusion of fresh water aquifers, sea level rise, etc. etc. Major initiatives under way to build sea walls, big pumps etc.

If Dorian had done to South FLorida what it did to the Bahamas there would have been 20 foot storm surge in the inter coastal exactly where this high density development is happening.

Developers build and sell and leave. It is the buyers of these properties who will confront these consequences.

Wealthy neighborhoods with a huge property tax base can afford sea walls and pumps and what this does is displace the high water to low lying areas where poorer neighborhoods cannot afford these short term gap measures.

Folks there are somewhat aware but seem to have no choice but to carry on.

Inertia can be deadly!

Kaiser Jeep or someone once said that a geriatric senior citizen can walk faster than sea level rise. I prefer the gopher tortoise as a reference.

You really have to acknowledge one thing. The information is out there. One can choose to be informed. One has more than enough time to get out ahead of the curve. For those that stay and one day suffer the consequences how much can you really blame the developers even though they think short term, build sell and exit?
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 13:13:25

dohboi wrote:However deep a hole we're in, it's still a good idea to STOP DIGGING!!! :)


I agree with that, however the constant pretense that we can avoid even 2C of warming is preventing anyone from taking reasonable steps at adaptation. Just for example, IMO all land within 2 meters of current sea level should be declared Federal Land by process of eminent domain with the current owners compensated at a reasonable price. Then all of that said land should have all structures and infrastructure not designed to be under seawater removed while it is still dry land and it can be recovered for reuse elsewhere further up slope from the sea. This should be a perpetual project with sea level measured every 5 or 10 years and any land that is newly qualified for stripping going through the same process. This would in the short run be somewhat expensive but in the long run it would save a tremendous quantity of money that will be going to things like storm surge flood damage claims.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 13:19:04

Tanada wrote:
dohboi wrote:However deep a hole we're in, it's still a good idea to STOP DIGGING!!! :)


I agree with that, however the constant pretense that we can avoid even 2C of warming is preventing anyone from taking reasonable steps at adaptation. Just for example, IMO all land within 2 meters of current sea level should be declared Federal Land by process of eminent domain with the current owners compensated at a reasonable price.

And WHO pays for that, and what price is "reasonable" when it is sure to be worthless in a decade or three? Unless you want to tax the people owning the coastal land that you are proposing bailing out, we already have quite enough debt re paying people for bad decisions, thank you very much.

It's not like the data isn't there for everyone to see. If it were an unpredictable event, that would be different.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 15:01:31

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Tanada wrote:
dohboi wrote:However deep a hole we're in, it's still a good idea to STOP DIGGING!!! :)


I agree with that, however the constant pretense that we can avoid even 2C of warming is preventing anyone from taking reasonable steps at adaptation. Just for example, IMO all land within 2 meters of current sea level should be declared Federal Land by process of eminent domain with the current owners compensated at a reasonable price.

And WHO pays for that, and what price is "reasonable" when it is sure to be worthless in a decade or three? Unless you want to tax the people owning the coastal land that you are proposing bailing out, we already have quite enough debt re paying people for bad decisions, thank you very much.

It's not like the data isn't there for everyone to see. If it were an unpredictable event, that would be different.


Despite what the developers try to do the vast majority of the coast is actually not thickly inhabited. For example, Alaska has as much coast as the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, and only single digits are developed in percentage terms. A lot of other places are public beaches, which means they are also "undeveloped" for these purposes, and outside of some idiots most people don't actually build right on the coast. The idea is to prevent anyone else from putting structures and infrastructure in the currently undeveloped land. Just how many folks do you think live on the Louisiana coast for example? Sure there are places like New Orleans that would perforce be 80% abandoned under the plan, but that is still preferable to rebuilding it yet again the next time a hurricane blows through. The really expensive parcels would be a few port cities like those in New York and New Jersey, but as part of the whole package they are not very much physical territory and if someone can argue a sea wall is better in those selected cities then so be it, on a sound costs basis, not on some fantasy model that we are going to stop global warming and sea level rise. Pretending the problem will go away if we wish hard enough is short term thinking and only delays the inevitable costs a short time into the future.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 15:17:51

Double post
Last edited by Ibon on Fri 04 Oct 2019, 15:23:09, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 15:21:59

Ummmm...Barrier islands are unstable even without climate change. They are geologically shifting through the centuries interacting with inland estuaries... Go on google earth and check the coastal development on barrier islands on coastal areas of Florida Georgia South Carolina north carolina. 40 years ago there were already many studies written up on the foolishness of developing barrier islands...long before climate change.

The waxing and waning of beaches and the shifting high tide mark requires major beach and sand nourishment in areas where condos are built on barrier islands, like for about 70 almost uninterrupted miles from Miami to West Palm Beach.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 15:44:12

Having grown up just inland of a brazier island, the island where all the money came from, this migration of inlets has been in my awareness since I can remember, 60+ years.

At the VERY latest it was indelibly planted in my brain by this event.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ash_Wed ... rm_of_1962

Still they build. A friend of ours was commenting how one of her clients sold their just recently refurbished house, all new appliances, etc. the new Owners bulldozed the place and built a much bigger structure that my friend describe as “like a hotel.”

Idiocy.

I’m with Tanada, take the land by eminent domain. It will be far cheaper to tear the houses down while they are standing on dry land than to try to collect the debris they create.

Of course the first steps are to cease all new building. And then start rolling back the frontier, to retreat wherever nature advances.

But we won’t.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 16:35:35

Tanada wrote:all land within 2 meters of current sea level should be declared Federal Land by process of eminent domain...


All this is a non-starter with a denialist in the white-house.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 17:38:15

asg70 wrote:
Tanada wrote:all land within 2 meters of current sea level should be declared Federal Land by process of eminent domain...


All this is a non-starter with a denialist in the white-house.


That’s why it’s in the D platform, right?
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby careinke » Sat 05 Oct 2019, 02:24:46

Tanada wrote: Just for example, IMO all land within 2 meters of current sea level should be declared Federal Land by process of eminent domain with the current owners compensated at a reasonable price. Then all of that said land should have all structures and infrastructure not designed to be under seawater removed while it is still dry land and it can be recovered for reuse elsewhere further up slope from the sea. This should be a perpetual project with sea level measured every 5 or 10 years and any land that is newly qualified for stripping going through the same process. This would in the short run be somewhat expensive but in the long run it would save a tremendous quantity of money that will be going to things like storm surge flood damage claims.


I think your idea has a lot of merit. But.......

Our family compound would be directly affected by this policy, and it is really not cut and dry.

For instance, we own to the "Low Low Tide" which is around minus 4 feet and our highest tides come in around 15 ft, so basically a 3 meter swing. We own around ten acres of tidelands with another 30 acres upland with the high point being 220 ft above sea level.

Those tidelands are very valuable to us. They provide us with clams, oysters, muscles, crab, seaweed (fertilizer), recreation, wildlife habitat, and protection from exploitation by the public. Even as sea levels rise, the tidelands rise with them, and will still provide value for our family.

Needless to say, it would not be in our families best interest to have our tidelands taken through eminent domain.

It also would not be in the states best interest. First, as the Low Low tide rises, they get it back for free anyway. Second, our family has and will take better care of it through the generations at no cost to the state.

On the other hand, as the Southern Puget Sound dies off, maybe a buyout would be the best option. Hmmm, something to consider.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby diemos » Sat 05 Oct 2019, 09:23:32

Ibon wrote:You really have to acknowledge one thing. The information is out there. One can choose to be informed. One has more than enough time to get out ahead of the curve. For those that stay and one day suffer the consequences how much can you really blame the developers even though they think short term, build sell and exit?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pn0WdJx-Wkw
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 05 Oct 2019, 12:24:23

Newfie wrote:
asg70 wrote:
Tanada wrote:all land within 2 meters of current sea level should be declared Federal Land by process of eminent domain...


All this is a non-starter with a denialist in the white-house.


That’s why it’s in the D platform, right?


Right now the Dem platform is to not do much. However, they would allow the science to proceed which, eventually, does dictate choices to be made. To muffle and deny the science, simple steps like restoring flood plains won't happen because one does need to science to justify any such steps whose costs must be justified.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby FLAMEOUT » Sat 05 Oct 2019, 13:23:20

Dawlish - Devon England - The main railway line to Plymouth and Penzance runs along the coast here and gets battered by storms regularly but mostly trains still run - until the storm of 2014.

A lovely place to be on a warm summers day.

Image

Occasionally an Atlantic storm arrives

Image

Image

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-B-Bx3KjeQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1m8owkmCh4

Trains still run but this section of line is closely monitored. In 2014 this occured. Luckily trains had been stopped a few hours earlier.

Image

Video of last train through the storm, and the damage

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUm-7yAl2nw

The line was rebuilt within a couple of months and sea wall strengthened. But it will happen again. the line had to be built along the coast here 150 odd years ago as inland is very hilly. As the line is a vital link to Cornwall rebuilding inland or extending the seawall out to sea are being planned. Both options are costly. Better rebuild inland I think as the sea is not negotiable !!
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