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The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 16:30:58

And just a reminder: about 98% of everyone in the US oil patch opposes the building of this pipeline as well as all the other projects that enable the increase in the amount of Canadian oil imported into the USA. That also includes 100's of thousands of private land owners.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby jawagord » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 17:02:34

ROCKMAN wrote:Jaw - All true...if it gets built. I'll explain again how big pipeline projects typically get built. The construction time and payout period tend to be too long for companies to gamble. So they first solicit "subscribers": companies that commit to shipping a fixed amount of oil thru the pipeline for X amount of years at $Y/bbl. This protects the pipeline builder from market volatility. There will be a fixed period of time for subscriptions to be taken. If not enough subscriptions are made in that time period any subscription commitments are voided.

Last time I checked there was a bit of excess pipeline capacity to import Canadian oil. This leaves the new pipeline builders two problems. First, it will have to charge a competitive transport fee. IOW a smaller profit margin the other pipelines that may have already recovered 100% of their costs. Second, even if a lower fee is offered an oil owner might still be bound by its original subscription commitment. Also any existing subscription commitments for the new line are not enforceable until every required permit is in place. Also any lawsuit that halts construction can cause the clock to run out on existing subscriptions. TransCanada kept extending the original subscription period years ago as delays kept extending the border crossing permit. Eventually it cancelled the subscription period.


Rockman TCPL has gotten recommitments for KXL and yes there is excess capacity, not unexpectedly. With the newly imposed route change in NEB who knows how long this will take to sort out and what extra it will cost. On the plus side most of the pipe was bought years ago and most of the design was done years ago so it could be one of the fastest executed big pipelines if it gets the final go ahead.

And may I add I expect 98% of the refineries on the gulf coast support the pipeline along with 100% of the American shareholders of all those Canadian Oil and Gas companies listed on the NYSE, along with the shareholders of the major American Oil and Gas companies that still have operations in Alberta. :wink:

TransCanada’s ‎liquids pipelines President Paul Miller said on a conference call the company has obtained the desired volume commitment of about 500,000 barrels per day. “We do have various conditions attached,” he said, without disclosing the terms from shippers. “I believe the conditions are manageable.”

https://ca.reuters.com/article/business ... 91S0-OCABS
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 23:33:03

Jaw - Very good: I had not seen news of the 500,000 bopd commitment. But agan the ovewhelming majority of US oil producers would not like to see this line built. Just as they wish the other import lines didn't exist.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 11:04:18

ROCKMAN wrote:Jaw - Very good: I had not seen news of the 500,000 bopd commitment. But agan the ovewhelming majority of US oil producers would not like to see this line built. Just as they wish the other import lines didn't exist.


Rockman I'm sure there are more than just your fellow producers and enviros that would be happy if KXL doesn't get built. As you have pointed out several times to the Illuminati on this forum - lack of pipeline capacity isn't preventing Canadian oil from getting to US markets in ever increasing volumes. So KXL is really about market efficiency and there are a host of companies profiting from the current inefficiency. Refiners in Edmonton and Chicago are quite happy to keep getting discounted crude feedstocks, pipeliners in Canada and US profit quite nicely when their lines are at capacity, Warren Buffet's railroad and tank car building companies have done well the last 10 years hauling oil, and then there's the rogue's gallery of sovereign producer states like KSA, Mexico, Venezuela that want to hang on to their US market share..... but eventually all good things come to an end!
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Re: Weekly Petroleum Supply Reports 2018

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 12 Jun 2018, 11:08:59

A huge develop regarding the futures prices of oil sands exports that you’ll never hear about from our MSM. Too many facts for the public to understand. LOL From

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/enbri ... 3-article/

(Bloomberg) -- Enbridge Inc.’s decision to implement and then scrap new rules governing Canada’s biggest export pipeline system sent crude prices on a record roller coaster move this week, earning the pipeline operator both friends and enemies. BP Plc filed a complaint this week with Canada’s National Energy Board saying Enbridge used an “unreasonable exercise of discretion” when it announced and then, 11 days later, canceled new rules governing the amount of oil that shippers were allowed to send through its Mainline system.

Heavy Western Canadian Select crude prices surged by a record $12.20 a barrel relative to U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures Monday after Enbridge scrapped the rule, which was designed to stop shippers from claiming more space than they needed on the pipeline. Space on the system, the largest link between Alberta’s oil sands and U.S. refineries, has been increasingly rationed, as crude production overwhelmed capacity. Prices had sunk $8.75 a barrel relative to WTI in the days after the new rules were announced on May 24. Suncore Energy Inc. and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd, two of Canada’s biggest oil sands producers, welcomed Enbridge’s reversal, saying the existing rules better ensure producers receive a fairer price for their oil.

A surge of new supply out of Canada’s oil sands this year strained limited pipeline capacity, prompting operators such as Enbridge and Kinder Morgan Inc. to increase the rationing of space on export lines. Enbridge said it was concerned that shippers may be continuing to “inflate” the amount of oil they nominate to ship through the lines each month as they vie for space, according to the May 24 letter announcing the new rule. Enbridge’s new system granted oil shippers allowances for the amount of crude they could send on the Mainline based on a 12-month rolling average, plus 15 percent for heavy crude and 40 percent for light crude. Shippers wishing to send more than their allotted amount would need to show physical proof that they had the extra oil. The company said it changed its mind after discussions with shippers.

The drop in Canadian crude prices relative to futures, known as the differential, after the changes were first announced was an “unintended consequence” of Enbridge’s proposal, Canadian Natural Vice Chair Steve Laut said in an interview in Calgary. The beneficiaries would have been refiners at the end of the pipeline. “Now we’ve got differentials where they should have been all along,” he said. “Enbridge was trying to take some of th dysfunction out of the nomination, apportionment side of the business. I’ve got to give them credit for trying to do that.”Western Canadian Select trades at a discount to WTI, in part, because it must be transported thousands of miles to U.S. refineries by pipeline or rail. The discount, which narrowed to $13.80 a barrel from $26 on Monday, has since widened to $17.80 a barrel, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 12 Jun 2018, 11:52:14

In light of ROCKMAN's post above it seems this would be an opportune time for the northern extension of the Keystone XL to get built. It seems that production has caught up to and exceeded current capacity, which is normally a strong signal for more capacity to be constructed.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 13 Jun 2018, 13:22:22

T - Perhaps. Though proven in the past to not be infallible, the IEA sees the same potential possibility:

"Canada will continue to pump out more barrels from the oilsands over the next few years, but delays to pipeline approvals and uncertainty over the provision of more export capacity is undermining the next wave of development, according to the International Energy Agency. In its annual five-year oil forecast published Monday, the IEA warned that Canadian oil pipeline constraints are part of a wider capacity crisis brewing across North America.

“Colossal growth in North American supply from 2018 to 2023 raises the crucial question of whether there is enough pipeline capacity to transport and sell all of that oil,” the Paris-based agency said in a report. “If sufficient capacity is not built, the increase in production we foresee could be at risk, with serious implications for global markets.” Despite the pipeline shortages, Canada will be among the countries leading growth in oil output over the next few years, taking its overall production to 5.6 million barrels per day by 2023, compared to 4.8 million bpd this year.

But the surge would come at a time of limited export options. “During 2018-19, West Texas and West Canada are likely to face shortages in midstream capacity brought about by a rapid production increase,” the IEA said. “The situation will be much more severe in Canada than West Texas as legal delays mean capacity is unlikely to increase before the end of 2019.”

And this despite the North Dakota Pipe Line substituting for a good portion of the economic justification of the KXL pipeline.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 10:08:55

Judge blocks Keystone XL pipeline (again)

A federal judge blocked the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline Thursday, saying the Trump administration’s justification for approving it last year was incomplete.

In a major victory for environmentalists and indigenous rights groups, Judge Brian Morris of the District Court for the District of Montana overturned President Trump’s permit for the Canada-to-Texas pipeline, which the president signed shortly after taking office last year.

Morris’s ruling repeatedly faulted the Trump administration for reversing former President Obama’s 2015 denial of the pipeline permit without proper explanation. He said the State Department “simply discarded” climate change concerns related to the project.

The decision once again throws into doubt the future of the 1,179-mile Keystone XL, which for much of the decade since its proposal by TransCanada Corp. has been a lightning rod in national energy policy.

The Trump administration had tried to argue that federal courts didn’t even have the right to review Trump’s approval, saying that it extended from his constitutional authority over border crossings. The court rejected that argument. .......
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-envir ... l-pipeline


Meanwhile, WTI futures dropped below $60.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Cog » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 11:53:11

Trump should ignore the ruling and proceed. Let this one judge try to enforce the ban.

I'm not the least bit surprised this judge is a climate change fanatic appointed by President Obama.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 12:08:54

Cog wrote:Trump should ignore the ruling and proceed. Let this one judge try to enforce the ban.

I'm not the least bit surprised this judge is a climate change fanatic appointed by President Obama.


Heck, Coggoid, let's declare Trump King for Life. He thinks he should be, and you would love it.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 12:16:08

Ghung – I wonder why they consider this to be any sort of victory for environmentalists. The same volume of oil will continue being exported from Canada and transit those same states. Except it will do so by rail and tanker truck. Both methods which have been repeated proven to be more detrimental to the environment…as well as human life. As far benefiting indigenous people: again how so? The judge is only blocking the section of the pipeline crossing the border. As far as building other sections of the pipeline it has no effect. As well as other pipelines built to carry much of the KXL oil. That was clearly proven by building a new pipeline across the Dakotas. A pipeline that would not have been built had the northern section of the KXL been built. An unnecessary pipeline built adjacent to tribal lands. Don’t you remember that?

Cog - Why defy the judge's order when he can simply have HIS govt engineers write a report that satisfies the judge's order. It was always just going to be boiler plate anyway. This is just a delaying action: won't change the final outcome IMHO.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Cog » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 13:32:22

Judges are supposed to make rulings according to the law not their preferences or desired social outcomes. This judge is just a tool for climate change fanatics. The executive deals with borders and the judge is out of his lane. I would ignore the ruling and let the judge try to enforce it. There is no constitutional issue at play here. Just another liberal judge trying to interfere with the executive branch.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 17:12:14

Cog wrote:Judges are supposed to make rulings according to the law not their preferences or desired social outcomes. This judge is just a tool for climate change fanatics. The executive deals with borders and the judge is out of his lane. I would ignore the ruling and let the judge try to enforce it. There is no constitutional issue at play here. Just another liberal judge trying to interfere with the executive branch.


I guess in your little world, environmental laws aren't really laws.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Cog » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 17:25:23

Ghung

What environment law is in play here? I've never heard of a climate change law. Citation please. If there is some climate change law in place, that the president must obey, then you should have no problem providing me the Congressional bill number or statute number.

Show me in "environmental law" where climate change theory interferes with a president's executive authority over borders. Cite the appropriate statute or law that is in play here. While you are at it cite the law or statute where by the president is acting outside the Constitution or his authority contained within. I will wait patiently.

I know you believe that judges should rule based on feelings or some social justice construct, but that isn't really what their constitutional role is in America.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 19:01:10

Cog wrote:Ghung

What environment law is in play here? I've never heard of a climate change law. Citation please. If there is some climate change law in place, that the president must obey, then you should have no problem providing me the Congressional bill number or statute number.

Show me in "environmental law" where climate change theory interferes with a president's executive authority over borders. Cite the appropriate statute or law that is in play here. While you are at it cite the law or statute where by the president is acting outside the Constitution or his authority contained within. I will wait patiently.

I know you believe that judges should rule based on feelings or some social justice construct, but that isn't really what their constitutional role is in America.


You don't know squat. I don't believe that at all. I didn't mention climate change, and I didn't even say whether or not I agreed with the ruling.

As for the rest, see the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (summary: https://www.epa.gov/laws-regulations/su ... policy-act). The Judges job in this case is to determine if the requirements of the Act, and other related statutes are met in connection with the authorizations that are required to construct and operate interstate pipeline projects certificated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (“FERC”). In this case:

In late March 2018, In a court declaration Jill Reilly, the Acting NEPA Coordinator of the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, wrote that the Department is “reviewing the MAR in light of TransCanada’s announcement” that TransCanada is seeking MAR construction easements. The Department will hire a contractor to conduct the new environmental review.

On August 15, 2018, the US District Court for the District of Montana ruled that the supplemental EIS from 2014 needed to consider the pipeline’s approved route through Nebraska and the State Department is required to complete that analysis.

On September 10, 2018, the Rosebud Sioux Tribe and the Fort Belknap Indian Community filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana challenging the State Department’s decision to issue a cross-border permit for the Keystone XL pipeline. The filing alleges various violations of the Administrative Procedure Act, National Environmental Policy Act and National Historic Preservation Act during the permitting process.

On September 24, 2018, the State Department released the draft review of the new route for the pipeline approved last year by the Nebraska Public Service Commission. In the draft supplemental environmental impact statement, the department wrote that “there is potential for environmental impacts from the Proposed Action, should an accidental or otherwise unexpected release of crude oil from the Keystone XL pipeline or facilities occur,” but concluded that impacts would not be significant because a release is unlikely.

On November 8, 2018, the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana ordered the State Department to revisit key aspects of its NEPA analysis before pipeline construction can begin, including reassessing and further explaining its analysis of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions from both Keystone XL and the Alberta Clipper pipeline expansion. The judge also ordered the State Department to reassess the potential for oil spills, impacts to cultural resources and implications of current oil prices.
http://environment.law.harvard.edu/2018 ... -pipeline/
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Cog » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 19:06:04

So there is no climate change law? Maybe you should call up the judge and tell him that. LOL

Since you and the judge apparently believe such a law exists and the president is bound by it.
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 19:14:24

Cog wrote:So there is no climate change law? Maybe you should call up the judge and tell him that. LOL

Since you and the judge apparently believe such a law exists and the president is bound by it.


Another lie from Cog. It's hard being in a world full of delusional tribalists. To borrow from (somewhere):

The left thinks I'm a Republican, the right thinks I'm a Democrat. They're both stupid. I just want to carry a gun and smoke weed at my gay friends' wedding 8O
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Re: The Keystone (XL) Pipeline Pt 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 20 Sep 2019, 21:33:06

What the attack on Saudi oil facilities could mean for Canada's oilpatch and Keystone XL

The secure supply of Canadian oil to the United States could recapture the attention of American decision-makers following the recent attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, experts say.

Industry and government leaders around the world are still assessing the impact of Saturday's drone strikes on the state-owned Saudi Aramco facilities.

The attack disrupted about five per cent of global crude supplies, sending oil prices soaring.

The news also saw Canadian energy stocks surge by double digits during Monday's trading amid concerns the impact on oil markets could last months.

Canadian crude — overshadowed by soaring U.S. shale oil production in recent years — could receive greater focus with renewed discussion about secure energy supplies, said Rory Johnston, a commodity economist at Scotiabank.

"Historically, we've seen more of the sentiment toward the Canadian oil sector as being couched in terms of oil security, which as a concept has kind of fallen by the wayside," Johnston said.

"This will likely raise that energy security narrative back to the forefront of public discussion, which all else equal, should benefit the Canadian oilpatch as a source of secure supply — politically secure and right next door to the United States."

While Canadian pipeline constraints make it difficult for oil companies to get more Alberta oil to market currently, Johnston said, a shift in the conversation could fuel further political pressure to build projects like Keystone XL, which has struggled in the face of legal, environmental and political challenges in the U.S.

"It wouldn't necessarily accelerate the timeline of these types of projects being built," he said.

"I think what this does is just lessens the risk that we're going to see further delays."
Alberta 'the most secure major source of energy': Kenney

Aberta Premier Jason Kenney, who was in New York on Monday to meet with institutional investors, also emphasized the message that Alberta is "the most secure major source of energy" in the world.

"The strike on Saudi refineries should be a wake-up call," he posted to social media.

Kenney was also reported Monday to be looking at easing mandatory oil production cuts in Alberta following those attacks.

American interest in secure supplies of oil from Canada was particularly strong after the terror attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, said Christopher Sands, an expert on energy policy at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, D.C.

That changed during the Obama administration, he said, with greater emphasis on the environment.

Sands said the situation with Saudi Arabia may have Americans looking at Alberta, but it could underscore for some lawmakers how important it is Canada build on its own pipeline capacity and ensure security of its oil.

"You don't have enough capacity, and this makes us think you need redundant capacity because what if something goes wrong?" said Sands, adding that ensuring the security of existing energy infrastructure is key.

Tim McMillan, president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, said the current situation in Saudi Arabia may provide more incentive to expedite projects like Keystone XL and Enbridge's Line 3, which would carry more oil from Alberta to the U.S.

But he added that even with President Donald Trump "pushing these projects, it has been a challenge with the U.S. court system and some of the other delay tactics that opponents are using."

Though McMillan said he's confident those projects will be built, he added he was "less confident" that the U.S. legal system will move any faster.

"But why on earth is Canada so beholden to the United States when we have the world's second-largest coastlines, where we have a close connection to the growing markets in Asia?" he added.

While Canadian producers still face challenges in getting oil to market, whether by pipeline or by rail, Ian Nieboer, managing director at RS Energy Group, said they should benefit from higher oil prices.

The question everyone is trying to answer, he said, is how long will the situation last.

"The outage itself and its duration is probably the first and most pronounced fundamental impact," he said.

"The longer term and more structural piece is, is there some sort of risk premium [on oil prices] that maybe enters the market as you think about the politics of the Middle East and now really the circumstances that led to this weekend's attack," Nieboer said.

As for gasoline prices, Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International, says it likely means higher gasoline prices in Canada as early as Wednesday. He said it's unclear how long it's going to last.

"We have no idea … where this thing is going to go because it's completely out of anyone's control," McKnight said.

"And the Saudis are going to keep things kind of close to the vest because they don't want to really upset the market completely. But the facts are facts. Five per cent of crude supply goes off the market, and prices have to go up."


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