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Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

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Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 00:05:24

[I hope this thread stays up - I can no find the recent one where I posted the news about the attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities. [smilie=5censored.gif] or data lost with system restore?]

The first reports were not sure of the extent of the damage and suggested not much impact on oil prices as there is currently a surplus, however, later reports indicate an expected significant fall in production (although no time frame is given). I wonder if we will ever get the story of just how bad it is, or if we will have to use the export numbers as a proxy to estimate the damage.

An analysis opinion posted on BBC states
The Khurais oilfield produces about 1% of the world's oil, and Abqaiq is the company's largest facility - with the capacity to process 7% of the global supply. Even a brief or partial disruption could affect the company, and the oil supply, given their size.

There was a sharp intake of breath as analysts I spoke to today digested the information that reports suggest that half of Saudi Arabia's oil production could have been knocked offline by these attacks.

The country produces 10% of the world's crude oil. Cutting this in half could have a significant effect on the oil price come Monday when markets open.


It also could impact on the (long delayed) IPO
The success of the drone strike shows the vulnerability of Aramco's infrastructure, at a time when it is trying to show itself in its best light while gearing up to float on the stock market.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49705197

I suppose that this attack would benefit every other producer country.
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 23:48:43

Oil prices hit their highest in four months after two attacks on Saudi Arabian facilities on Saturday knocked out more than 5% of global supply.

At the start of trading, Brent crude jumped 19% to $71.95 a barrel, while the other major benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, rose 15% to $63.34.

Prices eased back slightly after US President Donald Trump authorised the release of US reserves.

It could take weeks before the Saudi facilities are fully back on line.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49710820

This price rise when filtered to the pumps in Europe might not mean much of a rise due to the high level of taxs. I guess that the pain of any rise in pump prices might be higher in the USA.

As most of the oil from Saudi Arabia is heading to Asia, this might hit there economies harder than where most of the posters on this forum live. This on top of the effects of the China-USA trade spat might spell hard economic times for much of Asia.


BTW. Having 7% of the world's refining capacity in just one site was a huge risk. This shows us some of the downside of lumping things into bigger and bigger units - when it works then it is cheaper, but if it goes bad then the negative effects are wide spread. Time to brush off the small is beautiful meme? Dispersed wind and solar energy?
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 22:12:59

EdwinSm wrote:
Oil prices hit their highest in four months after two attacks on Saudi Arabian facilities on Saturday knocked out more than 5% of global supply.

At the start of trading, Brent crude jumped 19% to $71.95 a barrel, while the other major benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, rose 15% to $63.34.

Prices eased back slightly after US President Donald Trump authorised the release of US reserves.

It could take weeks before the Saudi facilities are fully back on line.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49710820

This price rise when filtered to the pumps in Europe might not mean much of a rise due to the high level of taxs. I guess that the pain of any rise in pump prices might be higher in the USA.

As most of the oil from Saudi Arabia is heading to Asia, this might hit there economies harder than where most of the posters on this forum live. This on top of the effects of the China-USA trade spat might spell hard economic times for much of Asia.


BTW. Having 7% of the world's refining capacity in just one site was a huge risk. This shows us some of the downside of lumping things into bigger and bigger units - when it works then it is cheaper, but if it goes bad then the negative effects are wide spread. Time to brush off the small is beautiful meme? Dispersed wind and solar energy?

Or, given how much of factory production works re the economics of scale, when disaster strikes some huge site, a premium is paid for awhile when supply shrinks, but the vast majority of the time, everyone enjoys relatively low prices.

Case in point: The disk drive market getting hit by Thai flooding in 2011.

For over a decade, peakers, etc. keep acting like there will be mass devastation if oil supplies decrease a bit. Nonsense! Neither inconvenience, somewhat higher prices, nor needing to drive a more fuel efficient car, travel less for vacation, etc. etc. etc. are the end of the world.

One good thing that sustained high US gasoline prices would cause is a much faster shift toward HEV's, so I'm all for that. Gasoline prices SHOULD be high enough that HEV's at a $3500ish premium to save a large proportion of gasoline are a no-brainer.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby EdwinSm » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 00:10:50

Despite a big daily jump the oil prices are still not at recent highs. This is after a full day of trading and not just the first minute reactions.

Oil prices ended nearly 15% higher on Monday, with the Brent benchmark seeing its biggest jump in about 30 years.
....
Brent crude initially surged 20% at the start of trading, but eased back to end at $69 a barrel, up 14.6%. US oil prices finished up 14.7%, the biggest jump since 2008.


However, we are still in a guessing game of just how bad the damage was, but at least Saudi Arabia can use stocks of oil to replace some of the lost production, so export amounts will not fall as much as the damage indicates.
The Saudis have provided little detail about the attacks, apart from saying there were no casualties, but have given a few more indications about oil production.

Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said some of the fall in production would be made up by tapping huge storage facilities.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49710820
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 12:04:05

The Saudis have said oil production will be back to normal after 2 - 3 weeks

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/oil-slips-following-the-biggest-climb-in-history-after-saudi-attacks.html


there will, no doubt, continue to be some amount of a fear premium pushing prices slightly higher but it will probably play second fiddle to any news coming out about tariffs.
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby EdwinSm » Wed 18 Sep 2019, 01:10:29

It looks like the panic is over, and there seems to have been a lot less damage from the drones than I had understood from the earlier reports (eg the recent pictures of the 4 domes with tiny holes in them, in almost identical places, but no burn marks).

Saudi Arabia has said its oil output will return to normal by the end of this month, with half the production lost in drone attacks on two key facilities already restored.

The news immediately calmed the oil markets, with the price falling 7% on Tuesday after Monday's huge spike.

Also, President Donald Trump said it was no longer necessary to release reserves from US emergency stocks.
.....
"Production will be back to normal by the end of September," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told a press conference, adding that the state oil giant Aramco had emerged "like a phoenix from the ashes" after the attack. A Saudi official also said plans for the stock market listing of Aramco, would continue "as is".

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49735788
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 18 Sep 2019, 08:42:42

rockdoc123 wrote:The Saudis have said oil production will be back to normal after 2 - 3 weeks


And so all the remaining peakers cried in unison: "Curses, foiled again."

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby Revi » Wed 18 Sep 2019, 11:04:46

asg70 wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:The Saudis have said oil production will be back to normal after 2 - 3 weeks


And so all the remaining peakers cried in unison: "Curses, foiled again."


Let's see if they can really get it back. If not the world is down a significant amount for a month, leading to lower output, which combined with the fracking bust puts us awfully close to the name of this forum...
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 18 Sep 2019, 11:34:21

Explosions are guaranteed to increase in Saudi Arabia for one simple reason:

Fake Money

It doesn't matter where the drones will come from, Fake Money means it has to occur because:

America and KSA are both bankrupt.
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 18 Sep 2019, 14:37:52

StarvingLion wrote:Explosions are guaranteed to increase in Saudi Arabia for one simple reason:

Fake Money

It doesn't matter where the drones will come from, Fake Money means it has to occur because:

America and KSA are both bankrupt.

If you're looking for fake, look at the premise / logic behind your entire body of posts. Oh, and track record re your stupid predictions, of course.

But thanks for playing. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby GHung » Fri 20 Sep 2019, 17:58:56

Just across the wire, and a live statement from the White House - US sending troops and aircraft to KSA to protect [one of the richest countries in the world] "world oil supplies".
I say it's about time we let the bastards defend their own oil, or those most dependent on it.
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 20 Sep 2019, 18:29:41

GHung wrote:Just across the wire, and a live statement from the White House - US sending troops and aircraft to KSA to protect [one of the richest countries in the world] "world oil supplies".
I say it's about time we let the bastards defend their own oil, or those most dependent on it.



I think the US knows that if you knock off anymore oil from the worlds production, it would send us in a deep depression. One that we may not recover from.
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 20 Sep 2019, 18:37:53

I say it's about time we let the bastards defend their own oil, or those most dependent on it.


The US still gets 15% of its oil imports from Saudi Arabia. Total imports are 8 MMb/d compared to the 12 MMb/d top production (so far). That's pretty significant given the only other large source of imports is Canada where the US gets most of its imported oil (about 45%).
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 20 Sep 2019, 18:46:34

rockdoc123 wrote:
I say it's about time we let the bastards defend their own oil, or those most dependent on it.


The US still gets 15% of its oil imports from Saudi Arabia. Total imports are 8 MMb/d compared to the 12 MMb/d top production (so far). That's pretty significant given the only other large source of imports is Canada where the US gets most of its imported oil (about 45%).




But Trump recently tweeted we are energy independent LOL
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby GHung » Fri 20 Sep 2019, 18:55:40

rockdoc123 wrote:
I say it's about time we let the bastards defend their own oil, or those most dependent on it.


The US still gets 15% of its oil imports from Saudi Arabia. Total imports are 8 MMb/d compared to the 12 MMb/d top production (so far). That's pretty significant given the only other large source of imports is Canada where the US gets most of its imported oil (about 45%).


Yes, I know these things, doc. It's a testament to our oil addiction. I also know that there's one person here who re-arranged his life and cut his oil consumption about 90% over the last 20 years, and most were working years. One reason was that I decided that trading our blood and treasure for Saudi oil was a bad deal.
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 21 Sep 2019, 07:35:05

Just across the wire, and a live statement from the White House - US sending troops and aircraft to KSA to protect [one of the richest countries in the world] "world oil supplies".
I say it's about time we let the bastards defend their own oil, or those most dependent on it.


The US might go to war on the word of Saudis? Ain't that rich. An Ambassador that carries a "bone saw" just might not be the most reliable?
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 21 Sep 2019, 12:16:15

Cog, I won't rest until that...

Terrorist State of Iran

is obliterated. They stole my oil. And why haven't all the Oil Haters been thrown in jail?
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 21 Sep 2019, 14:04:37

shortonoil wrote:The US might go to war on the word of Saudis? Ain't that rich. An Ambassador that carries a "bone saw" just might not be the most reliable?

Trump will have no other choice than to believe Saudis.
Because if he doesn't Saudi intelligence officers will catch him up and chop alive like they did with that journalist. :-D
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 21 Sep 2019, 14:28:48

Trump said he had proof long before the Saudi’s said it.
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Re: Economic outlook from the attacks on SA

Unread postby Cog » Sat 21 Sep 2019, 16:43:55

Armageddon wrote:Trump said he had proof long before the Saudi’s said it.


I have it on good intelligence that the market won't crash on Saturday. Perhaps take a nice walk, like I did today, to give you some non-doomer perspective on life.
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