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Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 20:55:04

I tend to do that to theories :/

Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto is now official.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... p-currents

Bad news for Bermuda. Not much else in its path, though.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby Azothius » Thu 19 Sep 2019, 13:36:52

Six Named Storms at Once in Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Basins Ties Modern Record

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... rn-pacific


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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 21:38:13

Lorenzo is category 5 hurricane.

The easternmost cat 5 ever recorded in the Atlantic. Fortunately, far from land and not likely to hit any.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby Azothius » Mon 07 Oct 2019, 15:28:03

I believe Lorenzo also become the northernmost category 5 ever recorded in the Atlantic.

Now, another (near?) record breaker in the Pacific:

From Tropical Storm to Category 5, Super Typhoon Hagibis' Rapid Intensification One of Most Explosive On Record


https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... st-pacific

*A western Pacific tropical cyclone, Hagibis, underwent explosive intensification.
*Hagibis went from a tropical storm to a Category 5 super typhoon in 24 hours Sunday into Monday.
*This is among the most rapid intensification rates on record anywhere on Earth.
*There have been a number of rapid intensification events in recent years.


I read another headline (from a paper for which I do not have a subscription) that it reached a cat 5 in 18 hours.

At the moment, it's tracking toward Japan:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... p=forecast


It has plenty of warm water between it and Japan to stay healthy.

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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby Azothius » Mon 07 Oct 2019, 16:32:28

Actually, it is predicted to weaken significantly before making landfall:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Categ ... at6-widget

Through this week, Hagibis will carve out a classic recurvature path, arcing toward the northwest and then north toward Japan and perhaps making landfall this weekend on the island of Honshu. Small variations in the timing and angle of the recurvature will determine what parts of Honshu might be affected. It’s a safe bet that Hagibis will be significantly weakening as it approaches Japan, thanks to increasing wind shear, drier air, and cooler SSTs, but the pace of that weakening remains to be seen. In its Monday morning forecast, JTWC predicted that Hagibis would be nearing the central coast of Honshu east of Kyoto on Saturday as a Category 2 storm.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby Azothius » Fri 11 Oct 2019, 15:35:18

Typhoon Hagibis set to hit Japan could be as big as one that killed 1,200 in 1958, forecasters warn


https://www.yahoo.com/news/typhoon-hagi ... 19875.html

Hagibis, which means speed in Filipino, is [was?] the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane, and is moving towards Japan.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said it is forecast to hit ashore in the Tokyo area late on Saturday, bringing torrential rains and strong winds.


The agency warned that the southeastern Tokai region of Japan could be deluged by up to 31 inches of rain in a 24-hour period.


At the moment, aiming towards Tokyo

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... ear/596581
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 10:05:57

Climate Instability is Here and Everywheres

Typhoon Hagibis Kills More Than 50, Floods Thousands of Homes
https://weather.com/news/news/2019-10-14-japan-death-toll-from-powerful-typhoon-hagibis-increasing?cm_ven=hp-slot-1
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 21:13:03

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. Detection and Attribution

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10 ... -18-0189.1

From the summary:

Most authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to:

i) the poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific;

ii) increased occurrence of extremely severe (post-monsoon season) cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea;

iii) increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;

iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades;
and

v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region.


In other words, Houston, we still have a problem, and will have worse and worse problems going forward...

...more here:

Global Warming and Hurricanes
An Overview of Current Research Results


Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming

In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic... one of our modeling studies projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century...

A recent study finds that the observed increase in an Atlantic hurricane rapid intensification metric over 1982-2009 is highly unusual compared to one climate model’s simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, and is consistent in sign with that model’s expected long-term response to anthropogenic forcing...


https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warmin ... urricanes/

Of course, there are plenty of uncertainties, and more study, as always, is needed.
But absence of 95% conclusive evidence that it is happening is not the same as evidence it is not happening.
The physics of tropical cyclones suggest warmer seas will result in stronger storms .
Physics also suggests we will see warm core storms migrate poleward as the oceans warm .
Both of these effects are already apparent in what reliable data we have.
Waiting for such effects to hit an arbitrary level of statistical significance before we act means we would be to far along to halt the changes.
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