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Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

How to save energy through both societal and individual actions.

Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 20:18:23

Lots of paleo evidence in support

Stein, R et al, 2017. Holocene variability in sea ice cover, primary production, and Pacific-Water inflow and climate change in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas (Arctic Ocean). Jour Quat Sci, V32, 3, pp 362-379

In this study, we present new detailed biomarker‐based sea ice records from two sediment cores recovered in the Chukchi Sea and the East Siberian Sea. These new biomarker data may provide new insights on processes controlling recent and past sea ice changes. The biomarker proxy records show (i) minimum sea ice extent during the Early Holocene, (ii) a prominent Mid‐Holocene short‐term high‐amplitude variability in sea ice, primary production and Pacific‐Water inflow, and (iii) significantly increased sea ice extent during the last ca. 4.5k cal a BP. This Late Holocene trend in sea ice change in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas seems to be contemporaneous with similar changes in sea ice extent recorded from other Arctic marginal seas. The main factors controlling the millennial variability in sea ice (and surface‐water productivity) are probably changes in surface water and heat flow from the Pacific into the Arctic Ocean as well as the long‐term decrease in summer insolation. The short‐term centennial variability observed in the high‐resolution Middle Holocene record is probably related to solar forcing. Our new data on Holocene sea ice variability may contribute to synoptic reconstructions of regional to global Holocene climate change based on terrestrial and marine archives


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Kinnard, C., Zdanowicz, C.M., Koerner, R., Fisher, D.A., 2008. A changing Arctic seasonal ice zone – observations from 1870–2003 and possible oceanographic consequences. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L02507.

Macias-Fauria, M., Grinsted, A., Helama, S., Moore, J., Timonen, M., Martma, T., Isaksson, E., Eronen, M., 2009. Unprecedented low twentieth century winter sea ice extent in the Western Nordic Seas since A.D. 1200. Climate Dynamics.

and the CO2 emissions story

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Kinnard, C., Zdanowicz, C.M., Koerner, R., Fisher, D.A., 2008. A changing Arctic seasonal ice zone – observations from 1870–2003 and possible oceanographic consequences. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L02507.

Macias-Fauria, M., Grinsted, A., Helama, S., Moore, J., Timonen, M., Martma, T., Isaksson, E., Eronen, M., 2009. Unprecedented low twentieth century winter sea ice extent in the Western Nordic Seas since A.D. 1200. Climate Dynamics.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 07:17:52

Roc,

So your data is based on two cores using biometric data strung out over thousands of years. What is the date and temperature resolution in that data? Where is the redundant studies that verify the results over a wide area?

Arctic sea ice mass has not been accurately measured for very long. Good measurements start only after WWII when there was better access. As late as WWI having people over winter in the Arctic was world news.

Recent data is far more accurate and consistent between researchers.

And it shows a high correlation between carbon release and ice mass loss.

But again why do you pick this fight? Is it some kind of holy grail quest for you that you need to deny every mention of warming in Peak Oil? What do you personally get out of starting these fights?

It must be very frustrating for you because as far as I can tell you have convinced no one here. Yet you persist.

And, you have the option of arguing for positive change in other areas. For example the reduction of plastic pollution. Why put so much energy into an effort with no gain? To reinforce your world view?
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 10:43:49

But again why do you pick this fight? Is it some kind of holy grail quest for you that you need to deny every mention of warming in Peak Oil? What do you personally get out of starting these fights?


simply pointing out the closed mind of individuals who haven't a care for looking at the actual science.
but much like all religious zealots said individuals don't like to have their belief system questioned...they certainly don't want to have any actual factual data get in the way of it. :roll: Sorry for letting facts get in the way of theories.

I pointed to a couple of proxy studies.....there are scores of them if you ever bothered to look at any actual research other than a press report. If you actually believe that the Arctic has always had ice and it is just now because of man that it is losing said ice then you need some different sources of information. And if you don't believe in proxy data then you can toss out pretty much every paper written by Michael Mann and every temperature reconstruction ever done or any of the modeling work that was done to attempt to match past climate (and hence validate projections). And then you are left with correlation as your only argument. Good luck with that. :roll:
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 13:29:45

They say when you age you need to exercise your mind and spirit to be able to jump out of deep grooves and patterns that get cemented in your psyche. Exercise, read, play an instrument, question your own integrity. Older folks are often challenged to learn new things or bust out of entrenched positions. One of the reasons I do mention that all of us baby boomers, where ever we are in our belief systems, have to be cognizant and wary about this. At least enough to pose the question.

Many are so fixed in their groove that they cannot even entertain the idea that they may have buried themselves in irrelevancy.

I do hold much hope for the younger generation actually, especially once we see the external environment applying pressure.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 13:37:23

I’ll bet Ive read a good bit more about arctic exploration than you. If you want to catch up quickly try starting with “The Friendly Arctic” by Viljamar Stephenson. Then read about Perry’s various attempts. Or maybe the story of the Jeanette. Bob Bartlett's accounts are really good not to mention the Karluk loss. Then delve into the whole Franklin expedition tragedy but concentrate on the various rescue efforts.

These are all first hand accounts. And they ALL report an Arctic that was much different than today’s.

So who should I believe, a couple of dozen experienced explorers accounts or you?

You seem bent on finding some obscure bit of contradictory evidence. If it doesn’t buck 97% of established science it isn’t good enough for you to you.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 16:17:37

So who should I believe, a couple of dozen experienced explorers accounts or you?


well you could actually read the published science on the subject, couldn't you? You don't have to believe me...look it up for yourself.
Do you think I made up those graphs or somehow concocted the paleo data they are based on?

You seem bent on finding some obscure bit of contradictory evidence. If it doesn’t buck 97% of established science it isn’t good enough for you to you


It's hardly obscure. The references I posted are from Geophysical Research Letters, Climate Dynamics and Journal of Quaternary Science which are all well-read and referenced peer-reviewed journals by scientists working in the various fields that contribute to knowledge about climate science. There are scores more if you want those references as well.

And please show us all the 97% of established science that tells us the Arctic was never in a situation previously where there was less sea ice. It is the other way around I'm afraid. The 97% claim has been debunked by Legate et al in a couple of papers after Cook published this nonsense.
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