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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 09:42:24

Ford credit rating downgraded to junk by Moody’s “Ford faces challenge of addressing operational problems as demand in major markets softening...auto industry is contending w/unprecedented pace of change.”

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Cog » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 09:55:28

Armageddon wrote:Ford credit rating downgraded to junk by Moody’s “Ford faces challenge of addressing operational problems as demand in major markets softening...auto industry is contending w/unprecedented pace of change.”

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No link, no care, fake news until proven otherwise. Course a casual look at Ford's bottom line would have revealed that Ford has $23.5 billion in cash which is larger than their debt. But of course that wouldn't quite fit the doomer narrative. I mean why bother to tell the real story when you can get your fellow moronic doomers to lap up your no link doomer nonsense?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/moodys- ... tatus.html

The company has $23.2 billion in cash, which is more than its debt, according to Moody’s. The stable outlook reflects Moody’s expectation that the restructuring will contribute to gradual improvement in earnings, profit margins and cash generation, Clark wrote.
Last edited by Cog on Tue 10 Sep 2019, 10:04:09, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 09:57:09

The Death Of ExxonMobil Picks Up Speed As It Ramps Up Shale:
ExxonMobil U.S. Upstream Earnings & CAPEX Per Barrel

ExxonMobil 2005 U.S. Upstream Earnings per Barrel = $35.63
ExxonMobil 2005 U.S. Upstream CAPEX per Barrel = $12.31

ExxonMobil 1H 2019 U.S. Upstream Earnings per Barrel = $3.77
ExxonMobil 1H 2019 U.S. Upstream CAPEX per Barrel = $50.81

https://srsroccoreport.com/

Over that 14 year period Exxon's profit on a barrel fell 89%. Over the same period the energy to produce, and process a conventional barrel of black oil increased by only 44%, although the cost of the energy to produce it in dollar terms went up 260%. Exxon is stuck on the same treadmill as the rest of the world's economy; the energy delivered for the cost of delivering it is growing exponentially. It is the same phenomenon that is now driving the explosive growth of world debt, and the decline in the velocity of money. Neither Exxon, or the world can produce enough oil to pay their bills! Debt will continue to grow exponentially until the system breaks down.

Once the existing fields that are being extracted, and not being replaced, and can not be replaced go into decline liquidity in the system will fall below zero. Cascading defaults will then sweep around the world. The US is now frantically attempting to repatriate its dollars before that financial tsunami strikes. Every dollar that is off shore will be a claim on US wealth, and the world will be desperate to claim anything that they can. Although repatriation is the correct route to take for the US at this stage of the world's fiat currencies collapse. they are probably five years too late! We are truly in the last days of the oil age, and a gradual decline is not in the making!

Data sources: EIA and World Bank
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Cog » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 10:08:52

Nothing that shorty will ever post, will excuse him being a shitheel for not paying off his wager. How does it feel shorty to know you are a coward and low down slime who will not pay off a wager that everyone saw you make? Does your wife know this and how does she respect you in the morning with the knowledge of your lack of character?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 10:19:32

Moody's downgrades Ford to 'junk' status on weak outlook

New York (AFP) - Moody's downgraded Ford's credit rating to speculative or "junk" status on Monday, citing the company's weak financial outlook as it embarks on an ambitious restructuring.

Characterizing the auto giant's current overhaul as "unprecedentedly large and challenging," the ratings agency slashed Ford's debt to the non-investment-grade "Ba1" -- saying prospects for its cash flow and profit margins through the 2020-2021 period were poor.

Ford's performance has eroded "during a period in which global automotive conditions have been fairly healthy," Moody's said.


"Ford now faces the challenges of addressing these operational problems as demand in major markets is softening and as the auto industry is contending with an unprecedented pace of change relating to vehicle electrification, autonomous driving, ride sharing and increasingly burdensome emission regulations."

However, Ford "does have a sound balance sheet and liquidity position from which to operate," said Moody's senior vice president Bruce Clark.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moodys-d ... 53793.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Cog » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 10:48:18

Sound balance sheet doesn't sound like the doom you want now does it?

LOL
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 11:13:02

“Global manufacturing is experiencing its sharpest and most geographically widespread downturn in at least six years…

“The manufacturing slowdown is the main factor dragging on the global economy, fuelling fears that growth is stalling and ramping up pressure on governments and central banks to ready fresh stimulus efforts.

“The gloom is centred on the car industry. Activity across car producers globally reached a near-record low in August…” Financial Times
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 12:08:39

Cog wrote:Sound balance sheet doesn't sound like the doom you want now does it?

LOL



There’s a reason for the downgrade
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 12:11:02

Yoshua wrote:“Global manufacturing is experiencing its sharpest and most geographically widespread downturn in at least six years…

“The manufacturing slowdown is the main factor dragging on the global economy, fuelling fears that growth is stalling and ramping up pressure on governments and central banks to ready fresh stimulus efforts.

“The gloom is centred on the car industry. Activity across car producers globally reached a near-record low in August…” Financial Times




I follow an insider in the auto industry and he said it’s going to be disastrous what’s coming. He said he’s never seen unsold inventory like this in his 30 yr career.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 12:38:27

I follow an insider in the auto industry and he said it’s going to be disastrous what’s coming. He said he’s never seen unsold inventory like this in his 30 yr career


well it looks like there is some disagreement with that bit of chicken little drama:

https://www.autonews.com/sales/inventory-estimates-down-still-high

Dealers and automakers had an estimated 2,859,600 unsold light trucks on hand to start the month, a 73-day supply, and an estimated 938,800 cars, representing a 64-day supply, according to the Automotive News Data Center. It was the first time since the beginning of November 2011 that the car total was below 1 million.


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hmmm....looks like the inventory level is down to what it was after the recession. Oh my God, we are all doomed! :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 13:02:00

Cog wrote:Sound balance sheet doesn't sound like the doom you want now does it?

LOL

No, of course it doesn't. Now, car companies don't like recessions. And a major restructuring is a thing that entails meaningful risk.

So it's not unreasonable that credit agencies might lower their ratings.

Of course reason, and the doom hype that armageddon tries to perpetuate, year after year, especially ideas like slowing growth is recession or even depression, etc. have little to do with each other.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 13:05:42

Armageddon wrote:I follow an insider in the auto industry and he said it’s going to be disastrous what’s coming. He said he’s never seen unsold inventory like this in his 30 yr career.

Yes, of course. If you have no credible information to share, you know, with multiple credible links, then by all means, stoop to the "I know someone" rumor game.

After all, that's how the Pink Sheet / tiny OTC stocks are manipulated. And we know how reliable THAT game is. All it takes is someone with no credibility spreading FUD. And where would be possibly find that around these parts. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 13:16:34

Armageddon wrote:I follow an insider in the auto industry and he said it’s going to be disastrous what’s coming. He said he’s never seen unsold inventory like this in his 30 yr career.

Opinions are like a**holes. Everybody's got one.

My brother-in-law is an "insider" in the auto business too. He manages the Georgetown, KY Toyota account for a large supplier of parts used in robotics, etc. As such, a couple of years ago, he was "in on" various information re the coming changes to cars, re using more electric motors, etc. -- to help improve the MPG to meet the CAFE standards.

He was predicting disaster to the auto industry due to the parts taking more room, etc. Yet, somehow, that hasn't materialized and shows no signs of it. Any stress on the auto industry has to do with the usual -- supply and demand for cars, and competition -- same as it ever was.

In my experience, if you could make a small even bet on every instance of some "expert" prediction that goes well against the grain like this (and IF you could reliably get paid when you win the bet), then big picture, it would be very easy money over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 13:50:56

“The crisis at Japanese automotive giant Nissan deepened today, after chief executive Hiroto Saikawa was asked to quit by the company’s board…

“In July, Nissan reported a 98.5 per cent plunge in operating profit in the first quarter of 2019, and announced it was slashing 12,000 jobs across the globe.”
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 15:34:26

Yoshua wrote:“The crisis at Japanese automotive giant Nissan deepened today, after chief executive Hiroto Saikawa was asked to quit by the company’s board…

“In July, Nissan reported a 98.5 per cent plunge in operating profit in the first quarter of 2019, and announced it was slashing 12,000 jobs across the globe.”

So still picking lots of cherries, eh? Do you make a good living doing that? :roll:

Pointing to companies who screwed up like GE and Nissan is NOT an indicator of the overall economy, but even folks as economically clueless as you know that.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Cog » Tue 10 Sep 2019, 18:03:22

Armageddon wrote:
Cog wrote:Sound balance sheet doesn't sound like the doom you want now does it?

LOL


As a long term investor in Ford stock, I actually read the quarterly reports. I doubt if you ever have.


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 07:09:40

The banks are in trouble again.

HSBC

Equity price down 32 percent since January 2018.

Total assets USD 2.75 Trillion.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ED_ZkTSVUAA ... name=small
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 07:12:38

Trump, “The Federal Reserve should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt. INTEREST COST COULD BE BROUGHT WAY DOWN, while at the same time substantially lengthening the term. We have the great currency, power, and balance sheet.....”


I said that ZIRP and NIRP were coming.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 08:31:15

Now here you go, you can spend all afternoon trying to cover it up? Job security in today’s economy is a positive.

Yes, we are truly screwed. The debt will grow until the entire system comes apart, and at $323 trillion, and growing exponentially that won't be long. During 2018 the world was supporting $8.17 trillion in debt with 1 Gb of production. A leverage of 163:1. No such economic lunacy has ever been attempted by any other economic system in history. Any miss fire in the system will result in its implosion. There will be no White Knight, or FED riding to the rescue. The rescue fund would have to exceed the wealth of the entire planet. In the meantime we will get a continual litany of crap thrown at us; including everything from fabricated trade wars, FED quack, and negative gamma momentum junk to keep the peons from looking too closely at what it is that is really going on.

We may have a month, maybe six, with divine intervention maybe a couple of years; but someone will spook, maybe; over GE or Ford; a fat finger will hit the wrong key, and Humpty Dumpty will take a great fall. Then all the Kings horses, and all the Kings men can run in circles, and point their fingers at someone else. The idea that infinite wealth, flowing forever, can not be created by burning up everything that can be found in the ground, will be highly unlikely to ever cross their minds.

The world can no longer pump enough oil to pay its bills.
Data sources: EIA, IMF, World Bank
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 11 Sep 2019, 14:15:10

High Yield has formed a triangle of doom. Support line was hit in 2008, 2016, 2018...next time it will break...and then the crash is for real.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEMmmjZUEAA ... name=large
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