EdwinSm wrote:Normally I find that you have a good response to some of the more doom laden news, but here you seem to have fallen for the positive spin.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Armageddon wrote:The German economic engine is contracting. Europe is in deep trouble
You really need to take first grade math. Growth is not contraction. Slowing growth isn't contraction, it's slowing growth.
A child who can do simple arithmetic could understand this, why, repeatedly can't you?
Because you have a story to sell, true or not, perhaps?
The article I linked to about Germany (from a good news source, ie the BBC), and the news that Armageddon referred to talked about
negative growth. You must have read in too much of a hurry and missed the negative qualifier so falling into the spin trap that the headlines writers had left!
There was a small contraction in the German economy of 0.1%. Small but a contraction nevertheless although nowhere near crash levels (at this stage). It was one of the main items on this morning's radio news because Germany is the biggest export market for the country where I am living and people are getting nervous.
Is Germany suddenly the world?
Clearly people are getting nervous. There is volatility in markets all the time.
I was looking at quarterly GDP here:
https://data.oecd.org/gdp/quarterly-gdp ... ator-chartAnd the real GDP forecast here:
https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-fore ... ator-chartAs I've been saying to Armageddon for months, we may well have a US and/or a global recession in 2020 or 2021. SO WHAT? Recessions are a normal part of long term economic cycles.
It's the doom mongering and constant spinning toward everything negative that I am reacting to, trying to (in a balanced way) point out that there is good and bad news in a lot of places, re global economics.
Now, if I missed that the latest (first estimate) re Germany is a tiny negative, OK: One small mistake re me missing something. Thousands of mistakes re a decade of bad calls and misinformation by Armageddon.
You and I disagree about who should be embarrassed by that.
Oh, and unlike the bulk of the fast crash doomers, when I make a mistake, I readily ADMIT it. I'm not embarrassed by that either.
With respect, just because person X doesn't like the concept of reporting both good and bad data points does NOT imply "positive spin".
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.