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The time .... has arrived.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 25 May 2019, 21:55:59

I just found a chart of the 5-year/3-month spread on FRED:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=n5OI

You have to zoom in really close with the slider thing below the chart.

It looks like the spread did go barely positive for 3 days from April 16-18. But I mean just barely. Not sure if that's enough for Mr Harvey's observation or not. Even if it does, it just postpones the watch date from mid-June to mid-July.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Sun 26 May 2019, 05:52:51

Campbell employs four horsemen to forecast recessions.

https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/duke-fuqua-i ... curve-2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucy3Sqh ... 1558865266

The Conference Board employs ten horsemen. I will flip to the recession camp when the LEI turns down.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 17:54:24

Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 09:46:52

The Conference Board LEI was flat in May 2019.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf

The time....has not arrived.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 03 Jul 2019, 15:34:56

Housing Market Signals Coming Recession
Forecasts for global economic growth for 2019 and 2020 have been shaved from last year’s 3.6% growth rate to 3.3% in 2019. That estimate came from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook published in April and may prove to be too optimistic.

In a report published last week by William Emmons, lead economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Center for Household Stability, warns that the housing signals are strengthening for a recession later this year or in the first half of next year.

A slowdown in the housing market has preceded every U.S. recession since World War II, says Emmons, and there are four indicators to keep an eye on: falling 30-year fixed mortgage rates, sales of existing homes, real (inflation-adjusted) home prices and the contribution of residential investment to growth of U.S. gross domestic product.

Mortgage loan interest rates that fall from their most recent cyclical peak have preceded each of the three most recent U.S. recessions by four to seven quarters. Emmons includes the following graph showing interest rate movements around the recessions of the early 1990s, 2001 and 2008. Precedent indicates the beginning of the next recession in the fourth quarter of this year.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Thu 18 Jul 2019, 10:21:18

The Conference Board LEI declined in June 2019. No recognizable peak in the Index yet.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf

The time....has not arrived.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 19 Jul 2019, 00:37:16

Thanks for posting that report. Both indicators look close to zero but are positive.

Interestingly there are some differences from the 2008 recession, where the leading indicator dipped about a year and a half before the coincident indicator, whereas for the last couple of months they are both turning slightly down at the same rate. This means that the leading indicator is at this time not giving any advanced warning --- this just could be random movement for a couple of months within statistical norms, as in the percentage change chart for 2000 and 2005.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Fri 19 Jul 2019, 05:40:51

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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 21 Jul 2019, 15:28:57

marmico wrote:The Conference Board LEI declined in June 2019. No recognizable peak in the Index yet.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf

The time....has not arrived.
On the contrary, it looks as if it could be forming a top.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 21 Jul 2019, 16:02:22

A critical recession indicator used by the Fed just hit its highest level since the financial crisis
A key recession tracker just hit its highest level since 2009, sending a signal that an economic downturn may be looming on the horizon.

The New York Federal Reserve's probability model, which predicts the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, delivered a reading of 32.9% for June.

That's could mean tough times ahead, considering the measure has breached the 30% threshold before every recession since 1960. It sat at a precarious 28% in May.

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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby EdwinSm » Mon 22 Jul 2019, 03:05:19

Interesting chart, but there have been a number of false spikes, and most recessions have happened when there was less than 50-50 chance of a recession, and once it hit the peak after the recession was over. But despite all haziness of the prediction that chart is sending out a worrying signal.

Does this mark the end of the time of Copious Abundance? Soon time for a name change???? :P
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 22 Jul 2019, 08:11:53

EdwinSm wrote:Does this mark the end of the time of Copious Abundance? Soon time for a name change???? :P


When he was busy mocking people's day-to-day end-is-nighism, he WAS correct and they were wrong, but I've heard it said that this is the longest the US economy has gone without a recession. Even if things are merely cyclical, the good times can't last forever.
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND HE WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HIS POSTS HAVE NO CREDIBILITY AND HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Mon 22 Jul 2019, 08:15:54

Even cornucopians recognize recessionary cycles. We make money on them. But its not the end of the world as doomers are wanting to happen.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 22 Jul 2019, 19:55:15

EdwinSm wrote:Does this mark the end of the time of Copious Abundance? Soon time for a name change???? :P

It would just be an ordinary recession, nothing more sinister than that.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 22 Jul 2019, 20:41:29

copious.abundance wrote:- The 1-year/7-year yield curve is inverted.
- So is the 6-month/5-year

https://www.cnbc.com/us-treasurys/

To emphasize how the bond market has deteriorated since I posted that in early January ... the yield on the 1-month is now higher than the yield on the 10-year! :shock: That's right, people are getting a higher rate of interest on a 1-month investment than a 10-year investment! 8O

But if you want to read something really interesting, check this out:

Yield Curve Weirdness

My new thesis I've been developing for the past several months is that yields on (at least some) US treasuries will follow those of other developed countries and head into negative territory. Though what the implications of that are, beyond that the bond market is pricing in long-term low growth and low inflation, I know not.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 22 Jul 2019, 22:22:10

It would just be an ordinary recession, nothing more sinister than that.


which is a pretty important point. Some here want to always point to the 2008 recession as being standard, which, of course it was not. A few of the previous recessions were hardly noticeable, in a couple of cases most didn't realize there was a recession until recovery had already begun.
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End of the line

Unread postby Whitefang » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 02:19:12

Yes,

I think the time has arrived, the old ponzi pyramid scheme is untenable, very likely, the old masters of big money central bank systems wanted to break the privileged west by creating this last giant bubble, then control slaves by installing a tight high tech camera/secret police/martial law grid.
There comes the 400 FEMA family camps in mind, creating the influx of cheap labor, health care programs paid by federal tax money.

https://qmap.pub/

Now the dark doings of these 8000 deepstate families are presented to the public, together with blaming the Fed/ECB for the next depression, the last one I suppose, there is no energy and resources to make it another go.
Like the sea ice light to dark, the satanists dark to light, we are at the end of the line.
There has been a revolution last year, this year or the next, patriots and true parents will be in control draining the swamp, strategically dismanteling the old power structure, TPTB.
Thank God, Allah or the Spirit.....finally. :-D

https://cdn.qmap.pub/images/1346492ce45 ... 60a449.jpg

Still that minor issue of abrupt CC and its negative impact :cry:
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Mass charges lining up, ready for battle

Unread postby Whitefang » Tue 23 Jul 2019, 12:50:39

Pedophilia, child trafficking, Satan worship, bloodletting of children. In plain view.
‘But I say to you, the rest who are in Thyatira, who do not hold this teaching, who have not known the deep things of Satan, as they call them—I place no other burden on you." Revelation 2:24


Kevin Shipp tweety.

8O https://www.wnd.com/2019/07/former-cia- ... ssion=true

He describes himself as “the only CIA officer in history to publicly expose government illegal activity and cover up, [and] stand up against the state secrets privilege at great personal risk.” In 2012, he wrote an exposé on the CIA’s abuse of government secrecy called “From the Company of Shadows.” (A preview can be read on Scribd.)
Kevin Shipp held several positions in the CIA and had top security clearance. Since leaving the CIA, he has become a whistleblower about the corruption he saw there and in other intelligence agencies.
According to a 2011 New York Times story, Shipp sued the CIA over the dangerous conditions of the housing the agency gave him and his family. After he moved to a new job at the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia, he felt the agency was surveilling his family and harassing him in other ways.
And he believes the Deep State is attempting a secret coup to take down President Trump. He believes that coup is treason. He made that claim and others in a recent interview with Greg Hunter of USA Watchdog.


Indictments coming
Shipp thinks indictments will be coming down, maybe as soon as this year – a civil war that has been brewing for over 60 years. One side is composed of the “dark left,” the shadow government – the FBI, CIA and the NSA – the DNC and members of Congress. He believes a Marxist movement controls the DNC. Progressive goals are Marxist goals.
He says this is the first time since JFK that a president has confronted the shadow government. Trump is too kind to call it the swamp. He would call it the sewer. Armed citizens are a key component to thwart them, he says.
The progressives have three goals. First, to change the Constitution into “a living document,” and change the First and Second Amendments. Second, to target Christians because they believe Christianity underlies the Constitution. Third, to destroy the founding principles of America.
Treason
He says John Brennan, former director of the CIA, is saying crazy things about Trump because he knows he’s going to be indicted. The Deep State is panicking. They know this is treason. Shipp says this goes all the way up to Obama, and as long as Trump is in office, there is a chance Obama will be prosecuted.

The people are going to take down the media when they realize how complicit the media has been in this. He says MSNBC and CNN were seditious. However, it’s difficult to bring charges against the press because of press protections. Instead, they’ll take a huge advertising and financial hit. It could also mean the end of the Democratic Party. They are now the home of every sick and twisted group.
Shipp says it’s really a global conspiracy, involving intelligence agencies from foreign countries. He calls Hillary Clinton the globalist princess. Shipp discusses how left-wing billionaire George Soros is a globalist with Marxist views. He thinks if we get a globalist as a president after Trump, there could be an armed insurrection if they try to change the Constitution.
Soros is pushing for globalism. He’s “kind of a puppet of the Rothschilds,” the globalist powerful family who are heavily involved in the federal banking system. Shipp observes that the Federal Reserve is made up of foreign banks, it’s not federal and it has no reserves.
The Clinton crime syndicate
He says the Clinton Foundation is one of the biggest criminal charity frauds in the history of the world. Shipp calls it the Clinton crime syndicate. He said Robert Mueller and James Comey were investigating it and they dropped the investigation. He recommends people check out the work of Charles Ortel for more information on the corruption of the Clinton Foundation.

Shipp discusses how the Obama administration targeted Trump’s associate Paul Manafort once they discovered he had not registered as a foreign agent for his overseas business dealings. Of course, Clinton crony John Podesta failed to do the same thing, but he was not prosecuted.
The Deep State is going to continue pressing Putin toward a third World War. They will keep blaming him and make him look like he’s an international aggressor. By pushing wars, that helps the shadow government stay in power. It’s the military industrial complex.
Since the economy is doing well, which is hurting the Democratic presidential candidates, the Deep State will go after it to make it look bad. There is a missing $21 trillion in debt which Shipp says was moved under James Clapper at National Intelligence to National Security and classified as secret. Now we will never know what they spent that money on.
Attorney General Barr will be in charge of bringing indictments. Shipp says he will charge them incrementally, a couple here, then a couple there, etc. Hitting them all at once would cause government instability and would affect the stock market.

The CIA and FBI use classifications to cover up criminal activity. Trump said he is going to be declassifying more than just the FISA warrant information.
The dark left and dark violence
The danger is the dark left and dark left violence. As the indictments increase, violence is going to increase. There will be beatings, shootings and more shootings at police. Americans need to arm and protect themselves against this.
However, the Deep State is not going to get anywhere with voter fraud because there are so many millions of Trump supporters. Look at all the people who show up at Trump’s rallies.
Democrats are running from the Democratic Party, Shipp says. Millions are turning to Trump. The voter turnout for Trump in 2020 is going to be even more shocking than 2016.

Shipp said voter fraud occurred in Florida where the supervisor of elections bussed in fake votes. It also took place in Texas, Georgia and Arizona. RINOs helped the Democrats take over Congress during the midterm elections. There’s no difference between them and the Democrats; they’re basically one party.
He says if Trump can get the money back from China they’ve taken through unfair trade, he can start paying down U.S. debt. In a couple of years, we’re not even going to be able to afford the interest on the national debt. He thinks Trump is so under siege now that he probably won’t try to accomplish it until his second term. Russia and China are working to see that the U.S. dollar is no longer the world reserve currency. If that happens, we’re done.
Mathematically, we’re headed for a financial collapse. The question is when. He thinks it will happen after Trump is out of office.
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