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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 15:07:19

Tanada wrote:If you make a post that references several EV types adding Tesla to the mix is on topic. Making a run of posts about the Tesla giga-factory and its relationship to part suppliers on the other hand belongs in the Tesla thread.

Yes its a judgement call, and that is my judgement.

Sounds perfectly reasonable to me. I try not to mess up on that too often, but it's easy for ANY of us to get sidetracked when arguing about a specific topic, and things drift.

FWIW, I appreciate the topics having some relevance re the vast majority of the posts, and to the extent I screw up on that from time to time, mods -- PLEASE don't hesitate to correct me and/or move my stuff to the correct location.

Folks, given what the mods do for us on this site over time, is trying to work with them really too much?

In my experience, the mods are open to rational discussion via PM, when you disagree with something or don't understand something, FWIW.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 25 Apr 2019, 06:50:01

Have people heard of Innolith? Sounds amazing.
Innolith AG, Swiss maker of rechargeable Inorganic Battery Technology, says they have the world’s first 1000 Wh/kg rechargeable battery. This would triple the range of electric cars. The Innolith Energy Battery would radically reduce costs by not using exotic and expensive materials.

Innolith will make an initial pilot production in Germany and then create licensing partnerships with major battery and automotive companies. Development and commercialization of the Innolith Energy Battery is anticipated to take between three and five years.

It will also be the first non-flammable lithium-based battery for use in EVs. The Innolith battery uses a non-flammable inorganic electrolyte, unlike conventional EV batteries that use a flammable organic electrolyte. The switch to non-flammable batteries removes the primary cause of battery fires that have beset the manufacturers of EVs.

Innolith has already proven the breakthrough character of non-flammable, inorganic rechargeable batteries with its first product, a Grid-Scale Power Battery that is used today in the PJM grid in the US to provide fast frequency regulation services. The chemistry used in this battery has been proven to operate for more than 55,000 full depth of discharge cycles, which is between 10 and 100 times the maximum number of cycles of existing Li-ion batteries in use today.

60 Gigawatt Hour Throughput
In October 2018, Innolith announced a breakthrough in battery technology for grid and industrial applications that will see the lifetime throughput more than doubled compared to previous batteries. The new battery technology when used in an Innolith GridBank system will have a lifetime throughput of over 60 GWh of energy over its 50,000 cycle lifetime and so dramatically cut costs for the use of batteries for grid applications. The performance breakthrough means that Innolith batteries will now cost between one third and one tenth per cycle compared to conventional Li ion batteries.


https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/04/t ... range.html
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 25 Apr 2019, 22:55:24

I've been reading about the changes with robot-taxis for over a decade. Just when I think I understand the implications something else comes along. It will take a while, but I'm convinced of the following:-
* They will be so cheap to hire most people will stop buying their own cars
* As soon as the laws are sorted, Tesla will make 1 million "robot-ubers" available to the public in 2020.
https://tinyurl.com/y58wdsed
* If we continue to buy our own cars, we might be tempted to send them on our own individualistic errands during the day making traffic up to 5 times WORSE! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSmTF6KoUb8
* If we instead get an even cheaper shared mini-bus trip into town each day, it could cut traffic by half to maybe 75%!
* it will eliminate car parking towers in CBD's, returning car park lots to local residential and commercial and parks increasing the density and walk-ability of our cities. We will be able to fundamentally rethink the urban landscape as car-parks simply disappear. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEebyt6G5kM
* There will come a critical mass of robot-taxis when the car majors complain to government that 'most people' want this service and don't want to be inconvenienced by human drivers mucking up intersections. Robot-taxis will talk to each other and coordinate how they get through intersections without traffic lights or stopping. Humans simply CANNOT participate in this, and so eventually human driving will be banned - just like riding horses on the highway is banned.
https://tinyurl.com/y3kykaah
* There is good evidence that battery technology is still getting cheaper and going further.
* However, if there was any 'range anxiety' autonomous vehicles would be able to co-ordinate with fleets of other vehicles. Going on a long road trip? Maybe you'll hire a special hydrogen vehicle. You don't care what fuel type it uses as the company co-ordinates all the fuelling stations. Or will your special road-trip mean your robot-EV-taxi takes a special scenic route, where you can stop off for a holiday lunch and look at the local attractions while it fast charges? Or will it give you a discount if it has to swap you to another freshly charged vehicle? Will it have other slightly freaky options, like a fast-charging supercharger trailer that drives up behind you, locks in, and charges you while you are still driving? Who knows, but there are many options. Automation opens up the idea of the quick car swap, without the passengers even thinking about where the car re-charges. It's just another option in dealing with 'range anxiety'. My guess is it will not be long before battery evolution just throws all today's old 'limits' out the window and give you a full 1000km trip before needing another charge!
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 07:22:40

Musk has proven to be an overpromise and underdeliver guy. I don't think most are buying his boasts anymore. Luckily there are several players working on autonomy so it all doesn't sink or swim with him.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 12:44:25

asg70 wrote:Musk has proven to be an overpromise and underdeliver guy. I don't think most are buying his boasts anymore. Luckily there are several players working on autonomy so it all doesn't sink or swim with him.

Yup. But the progress toward TRUE, certified level 4 or 5 FSD is likely to be incremental, just as it has been for the past several decades. Oh, and like the credible leaders in the effort, are saying, overall.

If he'd just talked rational timeframes, hadn't tried the fast totally unrealistic huge robotaxi claim (there are only 240Kish taxis in the US, for example), hadn't claimed Lidar is nonsense when, frankly, the industry doesn't even know whethere Lidar plus perhaps other backup modes will be needed, then the pitch might have been relatively credible.

Of course, that wouldn't have shifted the Tesla narrative from, we are an ongoing money losing proposition with huge debt and Three Stooges level execution to: we'll sell a bazillion robo-taxis soon and earn GIGANTIC stacks of cash and dominate the auto world -- and your car will be as obsolete as a horse if you don't buy a Tesla nonsense.

Meanwhile, with Tesla down 5 percent today on top of a similar loss yesterday, at least the markets are in more of a rational "show me" mode on Tesla now.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby eclipse » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 01:56:17

Except he's not selling you the robot-taxis. He's hiring them. It's not about buying cars for the next 15 years, but the next 15 minutes. Think about that long enough, and the sheer price difference between driver-taxis and robot-taxis, and you begin to see the era of car-as-product dying and the age of 'transport-as-service' beginning.

At a conference earlier this week, Tesla founder Elon Musk announced that the company is planning to roll out a massive fleet of one million self-driving 'robotaxis' as early as next year. These autonomous vehicles are planned to hit roads in the US by mid-2020 — regulatory approvals pending, of course.

If all goes to Musk's plan, here's how it'll work: the app will function much the way all ride-sharing apps do — except the car will drive itself. The existing Tesla app will be fitted with a 'summon' option, where you'll be able to order the closest robotaxi from its stored location, and it'll drive itself over to pick you up.

https://concreteplayground.com/sydney/d ... rvice-2020
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 13:04:14

eclipse wrote:Except he's not selling you the robot-taxis. He's hiring them. It's not about buying cars for the next 15 years, but the next 15 minutes. Think about that long enough, and the sheer price difference between driver-taxis and robot-taxis, and you begin to see the era of car-as-product dying and the age of 'transport-as-service' beginning.

Well, that's catchy. (Red text mine, for emphasis).

But when the reality is, re the entire industry trying to build the true Level 5 autonomous car, get it certified, insured, hammer out all the rules, regulations, infrastructure, etc. is very likely more like 15 YEARS or more, saying things like "15 minutes" doesn't have much meaning, unless you just blindly accept the usual Musk empty claims re time frame and what true FSD level 5 means, hook, line, and sinker.

Musk fans who have been doing that have seen the stock decline about $150 since the (totally non-credible, and in fact illegal) 420 "funding secured" Musk tweet 8 months ago. Tesla is still struggling to consistently produce 60% of the Model 3 volumes Musk insisted was absolutely assured by the end of 2018. Musk's new goal is 70% of that by the end of 2019, in the Fremont plant. The service and parts infrastructure Musk kept promising to fix is SADLY lacking, to the point it's really hurting Tesla's reputation. Tesla has lost money every year for 17 years. 2019 looks to be right on schedule. This has been despite repeated claims/assurances to investors for about a decade now that Tesla would be solidly and consistently profitable within the next year or so.

If someone is going to make major outlier claims vs. an entire industry of very smart people -- they better have VERY good credibility, if they are going to be taken seriously. Given Musk's credibility re claims and time frames, is there ANY point where Tesla fanbois will start to at least have some healthy skepticism re his claims?

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me SCORES of times, shame on me.

The mainstream press, FINALLY, isn't buying it any more. They want proof. So do I. There is a huge difference between having "the vision thing" and being able to run a car company profitably on a relative shoestring budget in a capital intensive and VERY competitive industry. Oh, and that competition will be arriving with increasing serious force for EV's in the next few years, which will be another barrier to consistent Tesla profits.

So hey, I don't blame Musk for trying another "hail Mary" re the robo-taxi claim. If it works, maybe he can borrow more billions to keep the dream alive for X more years. Tesla trades roughly 10 times its book value, where merely solid, profitable, respected car companies like Toyota trade for roughly their book value. How much are wildly speculative Musk claims worth?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 21:12:39

Chinese luxury car rental agency claims many Teslas are defective in NY Times square ad campaign

luxury-ride-sharing-platform-says-teslas-faulty-takes-out-times-square

The company bought 278 Teslas and says over 50 of them were defective....and Tesla wouldn't step up and fix them either.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby eclipse » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 00:50:33

But when the reality is, re the entire industry trying to build the true Level 5 autonomous car, get it certified, insured, hammer out all the rules, regulations, infrastructure, etc. is very likely more like 15 YEARS or more, saying things like "15 minutes" doesn't have much meaning, unless you just blindly accept the usual Musk empty claims re time frame and what true FSD level 5 means, hook, line, and sinker.

All I did was point out that the car companies want it sooner than later. I'm not blindly accepting anything, and adding plenty of paragraphs of MUSK FUD ignores the 2 main points.

This could happen sooner than a lot of people think.

It's not about robots driving you in YOUR car, but that you may never own a car again.

That's not just Musk talking, but most of the car majors and technology futurists analysing the economic impacts of automated vehicles.
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 17:41:53

eclipse wrote:This could happen sooner than a lot of people think.

It's not about robots driving you in YOUR car, but that you may never own a car again.

That's not just Musk talking, but most of the car majors and technology futurists analysing the economic impacts of automated vehicles.

Some analysts suggest a true AI that can drive a car and wirelessly communicate with all the other cars around it is several years out at least. And then it will take more years for the tech to go commercial and go on the market and still more years for it to trickle down to those of us who live in rural areas or remote spots or third world countries.

I feel quite confident that I will probably own several more cars.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby eclipse » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 21:28:45

This is a graphic of all the corporations putting serious money into robot vehicles.

Image

Human driving will 'soon' (in the next decade/s) be illegal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEebyt6G5kM
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 01 May 2019, 13:04:00

I don't buy the illegal part. In the US we've had a hard time just banning incandescent bulbs. We're not going to ban happy motoring anytime soon.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby eclipse » Wed 01 May 2019, 21:57:42

asg70 wrote:I don't buy the illegal part. In the US we've had a hard time just banning incandescent bulbs. We're not going to ban happy motoring anytime soon.

We shall see. Many futurists predict that the take up of Robot-EV taxis will be so fast it will catch society by surprise, and that there are transport algorithms that can be programmed into a robot-EV fleet that enable faster navigation of intersections etc, so that society at large just will not be able to stand dumb human drivers unable to integrate.

Also, safety. After millions of km's in test vehicles, they're already safer than humans. The accident toll in Australia alone costs our economy $26 BILLION a year. (Imagine what it is in the states?) Some futurists predict that robot-taxis will cut that by 90%. Can you imagine something else all that money could be spent on?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 02 May 2019, 09:36:04

eclipse wrote:Also, safety. After millions of km's in test vehicles, they're already safer than humans.


Tell that to the family members of the Tesla Mt. View accident.

I'm not saying autonomy can't get there, but don't just blindly parrot Tesla's hype.

The failure modes of autonomy are stupid situations that human drivers handle by routine, like knowing how not to drive directly into a gore-point or have the roof sheared off while T-boning an 18-wheeler, and that's what's alarming.

It's like in my car, it has barely any autonomy, but what it does have are safety features. The blindspot monitoring alone is a Godsend. That sort of thing has more potential to save lives than completely handing the wheel off and having it drive into a brick wall because the camera is covered by snow or blinded by a sunset.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 02 May 2019, 19:37:46

asg70 wrote:Tell that to the family members of the Tesla Mt. View accident.

Yes, one death is a tragedy, but 37,461 per year is a statistic. Imagine that cutting down to 3,746!

I'm not saying autonomy can't get there, but don't just blindly parrot Tesla's hype.

I quoted it once and then referred to other companies and futurists repeatedly.

The failure modes of autonomy are stupid situations that human drivers handle by routine, like knowing how not to drive directly into a gore-point or have the roof sheared off while T-boning an 18-wheeler, and that's what's alarming.

I'm not familiar with the specific situations you're quoting, but dead is dead, whether by this or by a drunk human or distracted human or tired human or texting human. The data is in. Autonomous is already safer than humans, and only getting better. And every time there's an autonomous accident there's an investigation, and a new patch downloaded for the entire fleet. Try that with humans!
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 02 May 2019, 21:29:31

eclipse wrote:I'm not familiar with the specific situations you're quoting,


Maybe get informed before you weigh in, then.

Autonomy creates a false sense of security. Under normal circumstances someone who isn't drunk, isn't sleepy, etc... would not drive into a gore-point. Autonomy not being able to discern lane markers properly will. It's the difference between how well the human brain does visual recognition vs. how poorly computers do it. At present, computers are riding up against the extreme edge of their capabilities doing things humans do while barely thinking. A normal everyday driver gives control to autonomy improperly thinking that the computer handles routine situations with ease. The failure mode catches these divers unaware which is a greater liability compared to if these drivers just drove the cars themselves. Their hands may be on the wheel but at highway speeds it leaves little time to reach to these failure modes and the driver will be in a far more relaxed state than if he or she was actively driving.

Here's another example, the case in china where a Tesla driver smacked into a street sweeper on the left hand lane. Fatal accident that would be highly unlikely to happen with a human driver. It was caused by some sort of combination of limited radar/camera range and reaction-time. There have also been exposes about how poorly the emergency breaking reacts. It can't handle stationary objects that you approach at high speeds, only moving objects like other cars that jam on their brakes.

Check out this video from less than two months ago. The emergency brake response still SUCKS.

Note the blame-game in the comments:

"Was he not paying attention? He could have taken over!!"

Here's one from a month ago that could have led to a head-on collision.

What is the F-n point of autonomy if human drivers have to take over? And Musk is saying robo-taxis will be on the road in massive quanties in a year or so? WITHOUT steering wheels? Live without a net???
Would you trust them?

Yes, I think these things are theoretically possible but there's still a long way to go. Don't overestimate the current rate of progress.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 03 May 2019, 12:10:32

asg70 wrote:What is the F-n point of autonomy if human drivers have to take over? And Musk is saying robo-taxis will be on the road in massive quanties in a year or so? WITHOUT steering wheels? Live without a net???
Would you trust them?

Yes, I think these things are theoretically possible but there's still a long way to go. Don't overestimate the current rate of progress.

+1

This is all about Musk getting more financing, since Tesla making actual profits (another thing Musk keeps falsely predicting real soon, every year) isn't happening.

No doubt the self driving fleet is potentially possible, and is certainly a laudable goal. At 60, I''m just hoping that MAYBE it's realistic at low speeds in my town by the time I shouldn't be driving any more, but I think 15 years or even 20 years is very much an open question.

One year, which matches other false Musk claims re FSD cross country drives for 2016, 2017, and 2018, and 2019 is just laughable.

Several years ago a number of companies were targeting the early 2020's, but everyone sane in the industry (i.e. everyone but Musk) has backed well off that, as they realized how difficult the problems are to solve with automation.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 03 May 2019, 19:03:19

The other thing is that software quality matters. I have very little confidence in the quality of Tesla's code at present. They can't even get the bluetooth phone key system working on the Model 3. They had to issue traditional key fobs instead. And people keep talking about phantom-touch and the center screen going black all the time. If they can't handle the routine stuff why do we expect them to crack autonomy? I've heard lots of emperor-has-no-clothes style rumors about what's really going on in Tesla's IT departments and it's not pretty. The hardware specs of the next-gen AI boards is promising but you still need quality software running on it.

So it could very well be that another company like WayMo will master autonomy and Tesla will be far behind. Oh, Tesla may claim it works, but the accidents caused by bugs and slop will say otherwise.

But don't expect autonomy to just arrive on the scene exactly at the same time.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby eclipse » Fri 03 May 2019, 20:26:52

I know I quoted Elon a bit enthusiastically, and I know it is amazing how high the Tesla market share is given the company's weird financial state. People believe in a brand, and fund it, even though it's producing a fraction of the cars other car giants are actually making. But let's not forget that the other car majors are in this as well. ALL these companies are investing heavily in robot-cars which will probably switch to a robot-uber financial model, reducing the number of cars society as a whole has to build by about 90%!
Image

That's my peak oil stake in the game! Instead of 800 Gigafactories, the world might only have to build 80 — if the idea of car-as-product dies and is replaced by transport-as-a-service. For those of us who live in cities anyway.

Having said all that, this Scientific American article has dampened my enthusiasm a bit. I hear what ASG70 is saying about the sheer awful terrifying DUMBNESS of AI problems with driving — and that even a drunk human wouldn't do certain things. But then again, humans do terrifying dumb things when drunk, tired, texting, distracted, and angry. So maybe the AI revolution has another 10 years before it really kicks in. Maybe we should take every statement by Elon with a good dose of understanding 'Elon timeframes' are optimistic timeframes. But then again, it's amazing enough that with their finances that the company has actually stayed in business, it's amazing that they've finally forced an electric-vehicle ARMS RACE with the other car majors (except Toyota, who are still investing in hydrogen), and so maybe their AI will be amazing as well.

But here's the bit Elon got right, even if the timing is wrong. Most of the futurists I read have studied this, and as much as 10 or 15 years ago predicted that car-as-product would die. The fact that Elon's cottoned onto that and is KEEPING OWNERSHIP of these autonomous vehicles must scare the other car producers. It's probably corporate sabre-rattling, but the threat has been made. Elon has slapped them with his glove and challenged them to a dual! It's muskets at dawn. Car-as-product is dying, and the market for actually selling cars could halve, quarter, or even drop down to a tenth of today's car market! So the next time you're driving down your local car-yard alley, imagine 10% of the car-yards. 10% of the cars means 10% of the people selling cars, the suppliers, the factories, everything. It's HUGE! And the flow on effects of autonomous taxi-cabs on city design are also huge, but I've already said too much this post.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 04 May 2019, 08:39:22

You're right that it has huge potential. However, with Tesla it's a tortoise and the hare situation. They look like they're ahead when in fact they are rushing ahead prematurely. Their dreams could go up in smoke with a string of fatalities that ultimately trace itself back to carelessness and hubris on their part, whereas the other players, being more cautious, won't roll out until they're certain human beings won't die as live beta-testers.

It's just that right now autonomy is more of the process of human drivers being asked to actively babysit the autonomous vehicle which completely defeats the purpose of such technology. Incomplete autonomy is better utilized as a babysitter for human drivers in areas where the hardware is superior than human senses (like backup cameras, proximity sensors, blindspot detection).
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"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
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