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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 14:33:54

shortonoil wrote:I punched a wrong number somewhere.


Par for the course (see sig).
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 15:13:56

I remember teaching my daughter about fractions and decimal numbers. Frustrating for her at first, but she got it. Shorty, never seems to get it no matter the patience of his teachers.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby marmico » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 15:22:48

How many of the ETP Bozo's Side Car Clowns are left on peakoil.com?

Stand up and be counted you effing retards.

Why does anyone with an IQ above 80 even bother with the scumbag ETP Bozo? (except kublikhan who is owed $1250 USD)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 17:29:36

And that data is not OECD only, you dismal moron. Look below you can see all of the indivdual countries listed, not just OECD countries. It clearly states WORLD GDP on the graph. I thought the word world would tip you off but I guess you are too stupid too read.


You really are dumber than a brink - that accidentally got fired twice. The World Bank puts OECD (in bold letters at the top of the page) and you believe that has nothing to do with the data listed below?? Tell us about the horrible experience you had in your childhood. Something shorted out the circuitry.

Here is a list of OECD countries (which I think is currect?)

http://www.oecd.org/about/membersandpar ... ntries.htm

On 14 December 1960, 20 countries originally signed the Convention on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Since then, 16 countries have become members of the Organisation.
Here is a list of the current Member countries of the Organisation and the dates on which they deposited their instruments of ratification. Click on the name of the country to consult OECD work on that particular country.
 
 
Country
Date
 

 
AUSTRALIA
7 June 1971

 
AUSTRIA
29 September 1961

 
BELGIUM
13 September 1961

 
CANADA
10 April 1961

 
CHILE
7 May 2010

 
CZECH REPUBLIC
21 December 1995

 
DENMARK
30 May 1961

 
ESTONIA
9 December 2010

 
FINLAND
28 January 1969

 
FRANCE
7 August 1961

 
GERMANY
27 September 1961

 
GREECE
27 September 1961

 
HUNGARY
7 May 1996

 
ICELAND
5 June 1961

 
IRELAND
17 August 1961

 
ISRAEL
7 September 2010

 
ITALY
29 March 1962

 
JAPAN
28 April 1964

 
KOREA
12 December 1996

 
LATVIA
1 July 2016

 
LITHUANIA
5 July 2018

 
LUXEMBOURG
7 December 1961

 
MEXICO
18 May 1994

 
NETHERLANDS
13 November 1961

 
NEW ZEALAND
29 May 1973

 
NORWAY
4 July 1961

 
POLAND
22 November 1996

 
PORTUGAL
4 August 1961

 
SLOVAK REPUBLIC
14 December 2000

 
SLOVENIA
21 July 2010

 
SPAIN
3 August 1961

 
SWEDEN
28 September 1961

 
SWITZERLAND
28 September 1961

 
TURKEY
2 August 1961

 
UNITED KINGDOM
2 May 1961

 
UNITED STATES
12 April 1961
 
 
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 19:20:39

Lets just put an end to this nonsense. The data which indicates rates of change between 2014 and 2017 are from the World Bank and they include all countries. There is a list there that shows non-OECD countries along with OECD countries. To argue this is just OECD data simply shows you are too lazy to read or instead just illiterate.

Image

It is as clear as day in this graph. Kublikhan's information is correct.

That graph is from the same page talked about several times here

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1999
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 19:57:31

Thanks rockdoc.

shortonoil wrote:You really are dumber than a brink - that accidentally got fired twice. The World Bank puts OECD (in bold letters at the top of the page) and you believe that has nothing to do with the data listed below?? Tell us about the horrible experience you had in your childhood. Something shorted out the circuitry.
You arguments are just getting dumber and dumber. It says the EXACT SAME THING on your link:
Image

If your logic was correct, then your link would be displaying only OECD information as well. It's not BTW. Both links are for the world. Every country included is listed below the graph. Hundreds of different countries. That's alot more than the OECD if you were wondering. They even have an interactive map to click on and see all of the countries included in the graph. Hover over the country and they will tell you it's individual gdp growth rate:
Image

I remember the last time we went through this song and dance. You were trying to argue the world pumped 2.1 million barrels of oil in 1960 when it was actually 21 million barrels per day. Simple mistake to make, surley you would be quick to admit your mistake? Nope. Excuse after excuse poured out of you to defend an easily verifiable fact. You even tried to use the price of oil in 1960 to try and claim that was the amount of oil pumped that year. And now you are doing it all over again:

Is fast crash becoming more likely?
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 14 Apr 2019, 08:45:50

And that data is not OECD only, you dismal moron. Look below you can see all of the indivdual countries listed, not just OECD countries. It clearly states WORLD GDP on the graph. I thought the word world would tip you off but I guess you are too stupid too read.


Further more, it would hardly be expected for you to know that the OECD is not the world if, you don't know what the OECD is. Google it.

One site is OECD:
http://www.oecd.org/about/membersandpar ... ntries.htm

One is World:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD

It says OECD, and World at the top of each page, and apparently that is done specifically to confuse brainless idiots.

Two things occur after Peak, and the world is at Peak. Shale production increases will fall short in 2019 by at least 2.5 mb/d to prevent it. Production declines in existing formations are greater than the amount of new oil that can be brought on line.

1) interest rates fall into negative territory
2) at negative 2 or 3% the credit markets cease to function

Interest rates must decline, and fall below zero because world GDP growth (0.39%) per year is smaller than debt expansion. World debt between 2012 and 2017 grew by $4.33 trillion a year; the world economy by $366 billion. Debt grew 11.8 times faster than GDP. Debt service cost for the world's $247 trillion in debt is $6.18 trillion; if calculated at the present going rate of the US 10 year Treasury.

The central banks now have one of two options, print to make up for the $5.8 trillion short fall between debt service costs, and GDP growth, or let interest rates go negative. Printing into an economy that is not, and can not grow will only place more liquidity into a fixed, or contracting economy. That will result in lower interest rates. The demand is fixed but the supply is increasing. No matter what route the central banks take interest rates will decline. They will decline until the credit markets fail.

This analysis is supported by the energy equations.

Image
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 14 Apr 2019, 14:54:51

kublikhan wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:OK. So clearly we won't agree on this issue.

You getting pissy and saying things like "seek help" only puts you in the class of posters like shorty (who resorts to insults if he isn't winning an argument). Is that what you really want?

Or did you just miss the /s, meaning sarcasm on a statement in internet posts?

It seems to me that over time, we exchange some interesting ideas on various topics. I prefer that mode to exchanging insults. Your call.
I too would prefer that but IMHO you get pissy over the issues of poverty, social spending, etc. I'm guessing it's because in the past you tried to help out those less fortunate and instead of saving/investing they blew it all like lotto winners. Now whenever this issue comes up you get bitter and rant about how much the left and right suck. Not very constructive IMHO.

Also, you seem to miss that just because I'm talking about poverty in the US doesn't mean I think doling out ever larger amounts of money in transfer payments is going to solve the problem. Breaking the cycle of poverty is a difficult problem to solve. I think education would be one important tool to help. The public k-12 schools in this country need improvement IMHO. Not just on traditional subjects. But also put more emphasis on consumer education topics like the importance of saving for the future vs the folly of the lotto mentality. Also, perhaps make donating a minimum amount of your earnings to a 401k/IRA mandatory. Perhaps a mandatory match from the employer and/or government as well.


OK, so it sounds like overall, we're really in agreement on the big issues, especially re education, mandatory savings discipline beyond SS, etc. vs ever-more entitlements.

Yes, I'll sign up for ranting at times on this issue, because I see so little real effort made toward EFFECTIVE things like education, counseling, etc. to try to mitigate "wealth issues", vs. trying to throw more money at the problem. Personal weakness on that front. My bad.

Sorry we got off track. When posting, obviously all issues can't be addressed, even briefly, or posts would all get way too long. Then, when one point hits a nerve, discussions can go quickly awry. It's unfortunate. In 31+ years with my girlfriend, virtually ALL of our significant fights were over one or both of us making false assumptions, then letting the resulting issue grow out of all proportion without discussing it -- then not resolving it until "the bomb finally went off". We got better at avoiding that, but never were completely successful.

Very glad to see this discussion veering back on course, as I really do think that over the long run, we have some interesting points to share in various discussions on this site.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 14 Apr 2019, 15:07:51

shortonoil wrote:
S&P 500


World Debt is growing 4.41 times faster than its GDP.

Still waiting on this stock market crash you guys have been promising. Does your crystal ball need some batteries?


Your brain could use a recharging.

Do you even use your brain, shorty? Will you EVER properly use the quote function and properly cite people, so discussions have some context? Or is that just beyond your capabilities?

Note how you were cited here? All I did was hit the quote button when making the post. Somehow, a person who writes "papers" and posts all kinds of arts and charts should be able to handle that, IMO.

Also, all you have to do is put who you're quoting in quotation marks for ANY quote, no quote button needed. e.g. the text generated to open the quote citing you was simply:

[quote="shortonoil"]

For someone who is frequently insulting the intelligence of others (especially when it's being pointed out how flat wrong you are), why is this so difficult for you?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 13:09:04

World Debt is growing 4.41 times faster than its GDP.

Don't worry it will be faster next year.

Debt 2012 - 2017 $26 trillion
GDP 2012 - 2017 $5.9 trillion
26/5.9 = 4.41

Don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 14:44:03

Outcast_Searcher wrote:For someone who is frequently insulting the intelligence of others (especially when it's being pointed out how flat wrong you are), why is this so difficult for you?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E ... ger_effect
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"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 15:27:28

shortonoil wrote:World Debt is growing 4.41 times faster than its GDP.

Don't worry it will be faster next year.

Debt 2012 - 2017 $26 trillion
GDP 2012 - 2017 $5.9 trillion
26/5.9 = 4.41

Don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out.


Why don't you try posting like an adult? Say what the hell you mean by your figures.

Cite them with a credible source.

When I look up total global debt on a credible site like Bloomberg, I get total global debt, defined as Corporate Debt + Household Debt + Government Debt, at about $244 trillion as of 3Q 2018.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ter-growth

When I look at the way at global GDP is growing from 2012 on, it's about 3.5%.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/273 ... oduct-gdp/

When I look at the rate of global GDP growth vs. global debt over the past decade, per the Bloomberg link above, while the debt growth is certainly higher than the GDP growth, it sure doesn't look like your figure.

Key Insights
Total government debt exceeded $65 trillion in 2018, up from $37 trillion a decade ago, and rose faster in mature markets
Non-financial corporate debt rose to over $72 trillion last year, now near an all-time high of 92 percent of GDP
Household debt grew by over 30 percent to $46 trillion helped by strong growth in emerging markets, notably from China; though Czech Republic, India, Mexico, Korea, Malaysia and Chile all recorded more than 20 percent increases since 2016
Financial sector indebtedness rose to about $60 trillion, up 10 percent from a decade earlier


If global GDP growth is in the ballpark of 30% over the past decade, how is 10% (financial sector) or 76% (government) or 30% (household) anywhere REMOTELY NEAR 4.4 times the growth rate you claim?

...

But if you don't define things and cite things like an adult, you can just make things up, which is pretty consistent with your history here, over time, so there's that.

Again, why should anyone listen to what you claim?

Can you handle healthy, honest debate, with credibly cited and DEFINED facts and figures?

Or can you? Here's your opportunity. The floor is yours.

Hint: Getting all emotional and spewing name calling, insults, etc. like a seven year old doesn't exactly fit the description of credible adult behavior, BTW.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 15:43:07

Re some balance around here instead of doomer cherry picking re the "FUD for Doom" club, I'm seeing a lot more neutral to positive news recently.

Maybe we recently had a rough patch (vs. doom, which is very normal, despite the claims of a certain club).

When I take a look at page 1 (of 29, stories going back to April 5th) the headlines under business/economy on CNBC, for example, I see a broad mix of stories / outlooks. For example, when I look at stories on the general US or global economy, I count 8 that are generally positive. (Disclaimer: I count signs of higher inflation as positive, re the coming "disaster" the doomers claim due to growth being so terrible, as higher inflation is a big reason AGAINST lowering interest rates, especially to zero, and in context, given how muted current inflation has been).

And I count 7 neutral to negative stories. (Ignoring pure politics. Including stories on the trade war as negative. Including cautious to negative opinions on the economy from "experts" as negative", or that the "bustling" US economy is "still leaving some people behind).

Overall, it looks MUCH more like we're backing away from lots of production records, and NOT a slam-dunk of near term global or US recession (much less the "crash" the doomers constantly claim is in the cards).

And speaking of records, how the doomers will spin the US Jobless claims dropping to the lowest rate since 1969 (i.e. 50 YEARS) as negative, I don't know -- but I'm sure they'll find a way, or just ignore it since it's a rather startling positive vs the "everything is falling off a cliff" claims of a certain club. :roll:

https://www.cnbc.com/economy/
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 18:42:06

"how the doomers will spin the US Jobless claims dropping to the lowest rate since 1969 (i.e. 50 YEARS) as negative, I don't know"

When it comes to doomers if everyone on the planet is not living like a king it can be spun like a negative.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 19:45:12

The world is now absolutely, completely, totally bankrupt with a debt to GDP ratio of 320%. $247 trillion dollars, or $33, 400 for every man, woman and child on the planet. Considering that a quarter of the world's population lives on less than a dollar a day that debt is devastating. 90% of the commercial fisheries of the world's oceans are gone, 75% of its topsoil, and 87% of its useable oil, and there are over 30,000 nuclear weapons now in the hands of some pretty crazy people. We are literally existing day to day.
Code: Select all
Year   Debt   GDP   %
   $trillions      

1990   37   21.9   168.95
1995   33.5   29.7   112.79
2000   46.4   32.2   144.10
2002   86   33.3   258.26
2007   149   55.9   266.55
2012   207   74.2   278.98
2017   233   80.1   290.89


HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!


The only place you would be welcome is at a convention of misquotes; as long as they aren't afraid of contracting brain rot.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 20:01:48

I've been living quite well day to day for six decades. Them days sure add up shorty.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 21:05:55

We aren't going to crash until after the 2020 election. Trump is already spewing more QE and lowering rates (gee, I wonder who’s been saying that for the past 6 months). DOW 30K

Markets love cheap and free money. GDP will be crap, but that’s irrelevant right now. The day of rekoning will come, just not yet.

We will find out how long they keep it going with multi trillion dollar annual deficits, 30+ trillion debt, 1+ trillion annual debt payment....etc.

Hope you are all stacking gold and silver while it’s still cheap because it won’t be for much longer.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 22:37:43

... 60% of millennials don't have $500 to cover their tax bill: Survey
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 16 Apr 2019, 09:10:58

Industrial productions falls for 4th straight month. Considering this is Spring and a time when optimism starts, that’s not a good sign.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 16 Apr 2019, 09:41:49

Armageddon wrote:The day of rekoning will come, just not yet.


How insightful. Doom, always slightly off in the distance. In the meantime, pay attention to my posts!
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