Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 12:52:43

baha wrote:If main stream manufacturers think they are going to sell EVs they better get with installing chargers ASAP. Only Tesla's are able to reliably take a road trip. This is long term planning...

Glad you had a nice trip, and that worked out for you. Tesla may now have faster superchargers out in the next year or so. I think it's very smart not to push it on the battery re the 95% max charge plans. Why take chances if you don't need to?

Of course, if you'd driven, say a modern midsized HEV, you could get there on 7 gallons of gas without stopping. And within a couple of years, with plans like those of VW's Electrify America are fulfilled, there will be lots of public chargers for the competitors, at rates at or below those Tesla charges for "normal" supercharger usage.

Don't worry about the competition. It's coming at an accelerating rate.

I still think it will be VERY interesting to see when Tesla starts making a profit again with its lower priced mix of cars (Musk says Q1'19 will be a loss), given all the capital it needs for the various commitments in the works. But still, I don't go along with all the shorts who claim bankruptcy is in the offing short term -- I think it's really a question of Tesla's growth rates in the face of the competition ramping up.

And that's why I think Tesla really needs to FOCUS on quality and service -- because reputation is going to matter very much when there are a whole lot of models from a number of quality manufacturers to choose from.

So it's a horse race -- and THAT is very good for consumers. :)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6691
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 07:36:55

baha wrote:If main stream manufacturers think they are going to sell EVs they better get with installing chargers ASAP. Only Tesla's are able to reliably take a road trip. This is long term planning...
Don't forget that in the US there are an average of 2 cars per household. That means a 2 car household can have an ICE vehicle for road trips and an EV for a commuter vehicle. Currently with only about 1% of cars sold in the US being EVs there is not much incentive for a massive rollout of chargers. However if this number were to increase to a much larger percent there would be more incentive for a larger rollout of chargers.
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 4479
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 10:19:46

https://www2.greencarreports.com/news/1 ... gXU0PRCrlU
Given the daily churn of electric-car announcements, major manufacturing investments, and battery supply-chain news, it could be a little hard to understand one reality-check projection: that even in 2030, a solid majority of vehicles sold could still burn fossil fuel.

Last week, LMC Automotive, a consulting firm with a strong reputation for its market forecasts, rounded up some of its current estimates. It anticipates that in the U.S. internal combustion engines will still make up 69 percent of the new-car market in 2030—and that more than half of global vehicle demand then will still have tailpipes and fuel tanks.
The biggest reality check, LMC says, will come for India, where its government said in 2017 that the entire market there will be electrified by 2030. The current 2030 target of 30 percent applies to a wide range of vehicle types, but LMC anticipates that just 3 percent of light vehicles in India will be electric by then.

In the U.S., on the way to 2030, LMC estimates that vehicles with internal combustion engines will lose one to three percent of market share per year.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9770
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Pops » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 13:12:18

The cheapest EV costs about the same as the average new car $33k+/-

The report by Bankrate.com shows that in all but one of the 25 largest U.S. metro areas, households with median incomes cannot afford the average price of a new car. In six of the surveyed areas, they can afford less than half the amount.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/28/that-sh ... icans.html

I'd be more than happy to drive an EV but at around 100 miles per month between the 2 of us there is no way.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 18294
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 13:56:24

Pops wrote:The cheapest EV costs about the same as the average new car $33k+/-

The report by Bankrate.com shows that in all but one of the 25 largest U.S. metro areas, households with median incomes cannot afford the average price of a new car. In six of the surveyed areas, they can afford less than half the amount.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/28/that-sh ... icans.html

I'd be more than happy to drive an EV but at around 100 miles per month between the 2 of us there is no way.

There is a story that is a complete crock. They throw out a bunch of arbitrary rules and conditions that don't really match the real world and then say the average guy cant by a new car. In the real world if your pressed for income you don't buy the average car you buy the cheapest and you put nothing down and pay for it including the sales tax over 60 to 72 months. And if you need a car to get to work it does not matter if it costs more then ten percent of your gross income because if you don't have it there will be no gross income.
You can buy five different new cars in the US for $15,000, with six percent sales tax added in that comes to $265 a month and you (if you are not Evil kanevil) can insure it for another $100/ month. These cars get 35mpg highway so using 32 average and 15,000 per year at $3.00 a gallon another $117 a month. So all told it comes to $15.50 a day or less then a lot of peoples beer and cigarette budget.
One line they do slip in there mostly unnoticed is that people are being squeezed by rising health care cost and stagnant wages so health care is the problem not the cost of cars.
We are now at the point where they won't wait for you to get sick to take all your money they are going to bankrupt you while you are still healthy so you can't spend it all before you get sick.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9770
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 13:32:06

kublikhan wrote:
baha wrote:If main stream manufacturers think they are going to sell EVs they better get with installing chargers ASAP. Only Tesla's are able to reliably take a road trip. This is long term planning...
Don't forget that in the US there are an average of 2 cars per household. That means a 2 car household can have an ICE vehicle for road trips and an EV for a commuter vehicle. Currently with only about 1% of cars sold in the US being EVs there is not much incentive for a massive rollout of chargers. However if this number were to increase to a much larger percent there would be more incentive for a larger rollout of chargers.

And let's not forget that chargers ARE being rolled out across the country, by more than one group. It's just not super rapid -- nor does it need to be yet.

Economics, re the profit motive, works. If there ends up being a screaming need for more charges "all over the place", believe me, smart folks somewhere will make a LOT of effort to make that happen, and be rewarded with lots of profits, as they should be.

Meanwhile, with 200+ mile BEV's becoming commonplace (and likely 300 to 400 miles being relatively common for those willing to pay in the future), and the real world round trip for the average commuter under 50 miles, it's not like it's going to be an unsolvable problem.

Home garage charging already is a popular thing. Inductive charging for the streets or apartments is a distinct possibility for those without garages. Etc.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6691
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 13:39:26

vtsnowedin wrote:
Pops wrote:The cheapest EV costs about the same as the average new car $33k+/-

The report by Bankrate.com shows that in all but one of the 25 largest U.S. metro areas, households with median incomes cannot afford the average price of a new car. In six of the surveyed areas, they can afford less than half the amount.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/28/that-sh ... icans.html

There is a story that is a complete crock. They throw out a bunch of arbitrary rules and conditions that don't really match the real world and then say the average guy cant by a new car. In the real world if your pressed for income you don't buy the average car you buy the cheapest and you put nothing down and pay for it including the sales tax over 60 to 72 months. And if you need a car to get to work it does not matter if it costs more then ten percent of your gross income because if you don't have it there will be no gross income.
You can buy five different new cars in the US for $15,000, with six percent sales tax added in that comes to $265 a month and you (if you are not Evil kanevil) can insure it for another $100/ month. These cars get 35mpg highway so using 32 average and 15,000 per year at $3.00 a gallon another $117 a month. So all told it comes to $15.50 a day or less then a lot of peoples beer and cigarette budget.
One line they do slip in there mostly unnoticed is that people are being squeezed by rising health care cost and stagnant wages so health care is the problem not the cost of cars.
We are now at the point where they won't wait for you to get sick to take all your money they are going to bankrupt you while you are still healthy so you can't spend it all before you get sick.

+1

And that doesn't even get into the idea that good gently used cars with low mileage can cost
50ish percent of what a new car would. Last I checked, Consumer Reports said the most economical way to buy cars was to buy such cars 3 years old, and keep them to 10 years old. Given how GOOD and reliable modern cars are getting, that 10 years might well be getting to be more like 12 or even 15 years, given that the average age of cars is approaching 12 years already -- including for cars that aren't well cared for.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/24110/by- ... -than-ever

Also, given how well modern computers can check out the major systems on modern cars, and how long drive train warranties (i.e. the expensive major components) are getting to be, it's not like you're even taking a lot of risk to save a huge proportion of the new car sticker price.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6691
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Pops » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 12:19:10

I don't get it, am I misreading the title of the thread?
Nope, THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

I posted that the average car sells for $30k, and the cheapest EV sells for... $30k making them unaffordable for me and lots of other people by simple, frugal criteria: 20% down/ payments =10% income.

Yet somehow that was an invitation to wax eloquent on yankee frugality?
That we shouldn't be concerned with the cost of EVs because... a 10 year old kia can be had for $15?
Or is this just the right-knee-jerk spasmodic defense of the trump economy?
Maybe everything is fine because CC is a Chinese hoax?
Or the latest: maybe the sound gives you cancer?
LOL
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 18294
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 12:27:21

Pops wrote:I don't get it, am I misreading the title of the thread?
Nope, THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

I posted that the average car sells for $30k, and the cheapest EV sells for... $30k making them unaffordable for me and lots of other people by simple, frugal criteria: 20% down/ payments =10% income.

Yet somehow that was an invitation to wax eloquent on yankee frugality?
That we shouldn't be concerned with the cost of EVs because... a 10 year old kia can be had for $15?
Or is this just the right-knee-jerk spasmodic defense of the trump economy?
Maybe everything is fine because CC is a Chinese hoax?
Or the latest: maybe the sound gives you cancer?
LOL

No Pops your post said the average guy could not afford a new car. I merely pointed out it was a stupid story using arbitrary rules that do not apply to the real world.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9770
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Pops » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 14:51:36

vtsnowedin wrote:No Pops your post said the average guy could not afford a new car.


Pops wrote:
The report by Bankrate.com shows that in all but one of the 25 largest U.S. metro areas, households with median incomes cannot afford the average price of a new car. In six of the surveyed areas, they can afford less than half the amount.

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 18294
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 16:50:09

Pops wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:No Pops your post said the average guy could not afford a new car.


Pops wrote:
The report by Bankrate.com shows that in all but one of the 25 largest U.S. metro areas, households with median incomes cannot afford the average price of a new car. In six of the surveyed areas, they can afford less than half the amount.

Yes you are re quoting the story which is wrong to the point of being stupid.
Argue the point if you want but don't just keep throwing up idiocy.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9770
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 20:36:28

Pops wrote:I don't get it, am I misreading the title of the thread?
Nope, THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

I posted that the average car sells for $30k, and the cheapest EV sells for... $30k making them unaffordable for me and lots of other people by simple, frugal criteria: 20% down/ payments =10% income.

Yet somehow that was an invitation to wax eloquent on yankee frugality?
That we shouldn't be concerned with the cost of EVs because... a 10 year old kia can be had for $15?
Or is this just the right-knee-jerk spasmodic defense of the trump economy?
Maybe everything is fine because CC is a Chinese hoax?
Or the latest: maybe the sound gives you cancer?
LOL

Liberals get their feelings hurt SO easily.

And you whining about the Trump economy IS "on point" if you're concerned about staying on the point of the thread? OK then. (I don't even like Trump, but it's the principle of the thing).

I didn't realize it's so evil to point out that there are plenty of good alternatives to cars being "too expensive to afford", given how much better technology has made cars.

If you have no cheaper choice than a $30K car AND there are no alternatives to be had, THEN, yes, it's right to be concerned about the cost of a $30K car. In the real world, EV's will get cheaper over time. And plenty of used EV's (gently and otherwise) will no doubt exist. So fear not.

Am I still too far off point?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6691
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 20:43:37

vtsnowedin wrote:
Pops wrote:I don't get it, am I misreading the title of the thread?
Nope, THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

No Pops your post said the average guy could not afford a new car. I merely pointed out it was a stupid story using arbitrary rules that do not apply to the real world.

Uh, yeah, what VTS said. And that was why I chimed in. Claiming the average person can't afford a new car isn't a valid claim. It's politics.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6691
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Cog » Thu 04 Apr 2019, 20:44:42

People on median incomes buy $150,000 dollar houses all the time. They also buy $30,000 cars and finance them. Can they walk in a write a check for the full amount? Nope.
But most people use credit for large purchases. Someone is buying cars out there or the car makers would all be bankrupt.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12404
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 05 Apr 2019, 04:30:45

To add a bit. The average car is the average because that is what is selling. If the guy making the median could not afford it there would be lower sales of them and some cheaper car would be the average. The story was ridiculous from the start because it declared sound policy was a twenty percent down payment 48 month loan etc. when in reality zero down payment zero interest sixty and even seventy two month terms are common. My last two new cars were both bought at zero interest. I made considerable down payments because I had money in the checking account but both could have been had with zero down and both were what would fill the bill for just a bit less then the "average" vehicle. One was a Toyota Rav4 and the other a Nissan Frontier small pickup.
The "average" buyer only puts down the equity he may have in the vehicle he is trading in not some fixed percentage like twenty percent.
You should consider the source of the story CNBC. It is fake news trying to convince readers times are bad and of course this fake terrible situation is the Trump administrations fault.
And finally to get back to electric vehicles, they do not need to be "average" in price or range as of yet because there are plenty of" first adopters" (those people that have to have the latest thing even though their last one is not yet off warranty) out there that have not yet bought their first EV and it will take Musk and the rest of the EV manufacturers years if not a decade to fill that demand. Those that will pay $1000 for the newest dumb phone will happily pay fifty to eighty thousand for a "gee whizz" EV. The rest of us can wait for these brave souls to go forth and prove out the worth of EVs and get the bugs out of the systems before we average buyers find one fills our needs at a price we can afford.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9770
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 08:17:40

I moved the Tesla distraction back over into the Tesla specific thread, please keep this thread for generic EV's from companies OTHER than TESLA. TYVM.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 15386
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 08:22:45

We can not discuss electric vehicles without mentioning Tesla.
Get a grip.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9770
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 09:13:50

vtsnowedin wrote:We can not discuss electric vehicles without mentioning Tesla.
Get a grip.


I did not say 'do not mention tesla' I said posts that are exclusively about current developments at Tesla or otherwise Tesla exclusive belong in the Tesla thread. For pities sake, surely you can stick to a topic once in a while can't you?

Folks who are Tesla obsessed were split off for good reasons. That one company comes to dominate the entire conversation like a festering sore and makes posts about Nissan or GM or Ford EV offerings get drowned out.

If you make a post that references several EV types adding Tesla to the mix is on topic. Making a run of posts about the Tesla giga-factory and its relationship to part suppliers on the other hand belongs in the Tesla thread.

Yes its a judgement call, and that is my judgement.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 15386
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

PreviousNext

Return to Energy Technology

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests