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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 21:13:02

shortonoil wrote:
FWIW, I don't object at all to the frequency of Armageddon's posts -- it's the blatant bias and cherry picking, tantamount, IMO, to willful misrepresentation to try to make a fast crash doomer "case". Not that this behavior by fast crash doomers generally, is anything new or unusual.


Armageddon has not made one comment that can not be found in the Wall Street Journal. So what exactly is your problem? Out side of the fact that you are an intentional, disingenuous, obstructionists. That is a problem for the rest of us, but mostly we just ignore you, and your 50 page dissertations that read like the mutterings of a heat prostrated iguana. You should give Armageddon some credit, he apparently attempts to at least try to translate your hieroglyphics, and constant blabbering.

You have NO grip on reality at all, do you?

Read your own posts, if you want to see endless blabbering, BTW.

But I get it. If anyone has the temerity to not be a doomer, or to use facts or credible citations, then you can't handle it. So it's name calling, etc.

You could win against 9 year olds. Against thinking adults, NOT SO MUCH.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 21:15:23

rockdoc123 wrote:
After the next blimp in the market they will be holding a lot of assets that no one will want. Stranded. The problem is that the companies who bought their own stock financed it with loans where it was assumed that the stock dividends would cover the interest cost. They are now trying to borrow the money to pay the dividends. The 2020 crash is going to make 2008 look like a church picnic.


Do you actually understand how a stock buyback works? Apparently not.

He doesn't understand anything except how to spew nonsense and call people who disagree names.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 21:20:15

shortonoil wrote:The energy delivery from fossil fuels as fallen so low that the world's economies can no longer even afford 0% interest rates, and that is when the CB are printing the money!

In the real world, there's more energy than ever being produced, and specifically, more oil being produced. And that oil has roughly as many usable BTU's per BBL as ever.

And as recent history has shown, people can afford oil just fine around $100. So they can EASILY afford it around $60, which is echoed in increasing demand. This problem you imagine is all in your head. Every year the global economy doesn't collapse is just more of an indication of how nonsensical ETP theory is.

So if you make 10,000 more posts about it, re false claims and predictions, you think that will change the outcome?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 04:45:27

Outcast_Searcher wrote:In the real world, there's more energy than ever being produced, and specifically, more oil being produced. And that oil has roughly as many usable BTU's per BBL as ever.

So from where all these increasing international tensions are coming?
Regardless of availabilty of energy it seems that major global powers are increasingly hostile to each other.
Limits of growth are around. They may well be not oil related or only partially related to oil but still there...
Very much like *short on oil* cannot decrease oil availabilty by whinning that oil is running out, *you* cannot extend status quo relative prosperity by repeating mantra that everything is fine.
Something is obviously wrong on global level othervise elites would be busy with making money and current charades of clowns blaming each other either for distorting market by unfair practices or for abandoning democratic principles would not take place.
Odds of major war in near future are growing up as we speak. There are surely reasons for it.
Perhaps you can offer us your insights in this respect.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 07:28:31

Major war on horizion or not the Limits to Growth are being approached. I personally believe that a general melt down of the global financial market will be the first domino to fall, it will effect everything across the board. When? Not a clue.

Strong attempts will be made to restart the old engine, how successful they are is open to speculation. I very seriously doubt any permanent fix will be found. They may slow the decline, cause it to plateau or even dead car bounce.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 07:58:56

Population is the main driver of the worlds problems including energy food and climate change. Oil production continues to grow but not as fast as the populations of China and India are growing and maturing into consumers. Therein lies the friction that will probably lead to war.
For example watch China in it's attempts to "Aid" Venezuela during the current crisis. They are clearly trying to get a foot in the door and stake a claim on a big chunk of Venezuela's future oil production. The rest of the Western hemisphere will take issue with that at some time in the future.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 13:41:33

vtsnowedin wrote:Population is the main driver of the worlds problems including energy food and climate change. Oil production continues to grow but not as fast as the populations of China and India are growing and maturing into consumers. Therein lies the friction that will probably lead to war.
For example watch China in it's attempts to "Aid" Venezuela during the current crisis. They are clearly trying to get a foot in the door and stake a claim on a big chunk of Venezuela's future oil production. The rest of the Western hemisphere will take issue with that at some time in the future.

That's an excellent point. In the first world, population growth is fairly minor, though consumption growth, of course, is not.

I have my doubts about EVER controlling population growth in the third world by any means but that population dying off as fast as they reproduce at some point. Maybe if things get rough enough re AGW, pollution, etc. and the first world decides it no longer makes sense to endlessly send food and aid to the third world, that chicken will come home to roost.

Hell of a way to run a railroad. Surely we should collectively be able to be smarter than, say, bacteria overwhelming a petri dish.

For the fast crash doomers -- NONE of this has to result in a "crash of doom", for the financial system, BTW.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 13:51:57

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I have my doubts about EVER controlling population growth in the third world by any means but that population dying off as fast as they reproduce at some point. Maybe if things get rough enough re AGW, pollution, etc. and the first world decides it no longer makes sense to endlessly send food and aid to the third world, that chicken will come home to roost.


We presently ship 'surplus food 'to the third world sometimes as charity but most often at world prices for profit. If conditions deteriorate here from any cause including oil depletion or climate change so that total harvests decline below our own needs those shipments will stop. It will not be our decision as it will have been made for us. That is when we will really need a wall as those peoples that have grown dependent on those food supplies will not go quietly into the night.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 14:04:28

vtsnowedin wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:I have my doubts about EVER controlling population growth in the third world by any means but that population dying off as fast as they reproduce at some point. Maybe if things get rough enough re AGW, pollution, etc. and the first world decides it no longer makes sense to endlessly send food and aid to the third world, that chicken will come home to roost.


We presently ship 'surplus food 'to the third world sometimes as charity but most often at world prices for profit. If conditions deteriorate here from any cause including oil depletion or climate change so that total harvests decline below our own needs those shipments will stop. It will not be our decision as it will have been made for us. That is when we will really need a wall as those peoples that have grown dependent on those food supplies will not go quietly into the night.

Another good point, re the wall. When we need a wall, the majority of illegals won't be arriving through ports, as they have been up to now.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 17:09:39

vtsnowedin wrote:Population is the main driver of the worlds problems including energy food and climate change. Oil production continues to grow but not as fast as the populations of China and India are growing and maturing into consumers. Therein lies the friction that will probably lead to war.
For example watch China in it's attempts to "Aid" Venezuela during the current crisis. They are clearly trying to get a foot in the door and stake a claim on a big chunk of Venezuela's future oil production. The rest of the Western hemisphere will take issue with that at some time in the future.


The agree over population is the core issue. Not so sure about the rest.

China is providing a LOT of aid to Dominica also. Why? I don’t have an answer to that. I can see no possible reason, except perhaps to agitate the USA. Christ it’s so mountainous they can even build a proper airport. Small lot farming only, a tractor would fall over. Something’s behind it, and it’s been going on for a while. Under 70,000 people.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 17:29:33

Newfie wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Population is the main driver of the worlds problems including energy food and climate change. Oil production continues to grow but not as fast as the populations of China and India are growing and maturing into consumers. Therein lies the friction that will probably lead to war.
For example watch China in it's attempts to "Aid" Venezuela during the current crisis. They are clearly trying to get a foot in the door and stake a claim on a big chunk of Venezuela's future oil production. The rest of the Western hemisphere will take issue with that at some time in the future.


The agree over population is the core issue. Not so sure about the rest.

China is providing a LOT of aid to Dominica also. Why? I don’t have an answer to that. I can see no possible reason, except perhaps to agitate the USA. Christ it’s so mountainous they can even build a proper airport. Small lot farming only, a tractor would fall over. Something’s behind it, and it’s been going on for a while. Under 70,000 people.

Curious-er and curious er! Checking the map I don't see a good harbor for a navel base. beats me.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 17:34:05

The Chinese build runways and military bases in the south China Sea where no dry land was before. They can build a base in Dominica terratorial waters too.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 17:42:11

Cog wrote:The Chinese build runways and military bases in the south China Sea where no dry land was before. They can build a base in Dominica terratorial waters too.
Those reef/islands in the south china sea were in very shallow water sometimes exposed at low tide. Not an impossible task to build them up to dry land and put a base on it. Dominica is a volcanic island that drops off to deep water a few yards from shore. A very different project but the question is what do they want with this remote island not close to any business or military priority? Is it their idea of a Western Hemisphere Diego Garcia?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 18:47:24

Very much like *short on oil* cannot decrease oil availabilty by whinning that oil is running out, *you* cannot extend status quo relative prosperity by repeating mantra that everything is fine.


2000 WEO USGS total possible liquid hydrocarbon resource 3,400 Gb. Extracted to date about 1,600. Only an ignorant fool would "whine that oil is running out". Making up ridiculous stories appears to be an occupation around here. Reader beware.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 18:49:46

PS: or even make the claim that someone else said that we are "running out of oil".
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Fri 15 Mar 2019, 20:08:24

It means he is taking his marbles and going home. Until he doesnt. Lol
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 17 Mar 2019, 06:16:34

Global manufacturing and demand for semiconductors are collapsing as demand from China is tanking. The stock markets are up though with almost USD 1 Trillion in share buy backs estimated for this year while the insiders are selling their stocks.

Maybe nothing?


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 17 Mar 2019, 07:40:54

Global manufacturing and demand for semiconductors are collapsing as demand from China is tanking. The stock markets are up though with almost USD 1 Trillion in share buy backs estimated for this year while the insiders are selling their stocks.


The reaction in the market was almost nothing compared to what one would expect from the collapse in demand for such a vital technological component to the economy. It must already be priced in, or the necessary response was already planned. Plan B appears to be to prevent the sheep from panicking while the store shelves go bare.

Corporations are buying their own stock back because there are no other options for the investment of their CB, mass produced, hot money. In 2018 93% of all asset classes were generating negative returns; 2019 will be 100%.

The end of the oil age will be preceded by a world in economic ruin. In China they will be be shooting them in the streets, in Europe they will just watch as the mobs burn it down.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Sun 17 Mar 2019, 09:14:54

Shorty has made the claim alternatively that we are running out of oil or we will leave oil in the ground. Some would call that schizophrenia. I would just call it funny.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 17 Mar 2019, 10:45:07

The riots, burning and looting has now gone on for 4 months in France.

China has 1 million Muslims in concentration camps (soon coming to Russia and Europe).

Venezuela was on verge of total collapse with a crumbling infrastructure.

Trump is warning about a humanitarian disaster at the southern border...while the infrastructure is decaying in the U.S.

Brexit is in two weeks. No one knows what will happen to the London city's derivatives market with a no deal Brexit.

Things are looking a bit funny.
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