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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 20 Feb 2019, 23:16:44

Thanks for that link, vt. News to me. Egypt, of course, has lots of other...issues...to deal with as well.

Meanwhile, one more to add to the extinction files:


Australian Rat Declared Extinct Due To Man-Made Climate Change


https://www.huffpost.com/entry/australi ... 7a1ed47b1c
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 23:44:30

World's Food Supply Under 'Severe Threat' From Loss of Biodiversity

https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... odiversity
The world’s capacity to produce food is being undermined by humanity’s failure to protect biodiversity, according to the first UN study of the plants, animals and micro-organisms that help to put meals on our plates.

The stark warning was issued by the Food and Agriculture Organisation after scientists found evidence the natural support systems that underpin the human diet are deteriorating around the world as farms, cities and factories gobble up land and pump out chemicals.

... “Around the world, the library of life that has evolved over billions of years – our biodiversity – is being destroyed, poisoned, polluted, invaded, fragmented, plundered, drained and burned at a rate not seen in human history,” Ireland’s president, Michael Higgins, said at a biodiversity conference in Dublin on Thursday. “If we were coal miners we’d be up to our waists in dead canaries.”
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 11 Mar 2019, 22:17:39

Rainfall Changes for Key Crops Predicted even with Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-rainfall- ... e-gas.html

Even if humans radically reduce greenhouse gas emissions soon, important crop-growing regions of the world can expect changes to rainfall patterns by 2040. In fact, some regions are already experiencing new climatic regimes compared with just a generation ago. The study, published March 11 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, warns that up to 14 percent of land dedicated to wheat, maize, rice and soybean will be drier, while up to 31 percent will be wetter

Drier regions include Southwestern Australia, Southern Africa, southwestern South America, and the Mediterranean, according to the study. Wheat cropland in Central Mexico is also headed for a drier future. Wetter areas include Canada, Russia, India and the Eastern United States.

The four crops in the study represent about 40 percent of global caloric intake and the authors say that, regardless of how much mitigation is achieved, all regions—both wetter and drier—need to invest in adaptation, and do so urgently in areas expected to see major changes in the next couple of decades.

Drier conditions are expected for many major wheat producers. In Australia, about 27 percent of wheat-growing land will see less precipitation, under a mid-emissions scenario. Algeria (100 percent), Morocco (91 percent), South Africa (79 percent), Mexico (74 percent), Spain (55 percent), Chile (40 percent), Turkey (28 percent), Italy (20 percent) and Egypt (15 percent) are other major producers that will be affected.


Maisa Rojas el al., "Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century," PNAS (2019).
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Revi » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 08:13:11

Mass die off will be within about 20 years. We are getting close to the drop off of the Seneca Cliff, and that will cause problems for food production as well as the problems that climate change will bring. It takes diesel to make most crops. When costs go up it's hard to make any profit from farming. I know fishermen need a cheap diesel and bait price to catch seafood. The amount of food produced could drop dramatically with less available and more expensive fossil fuel.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 08:26:59

Fishing is becoming a losing proposition. Not enough fish left to warrant the effort.

Fishing is very heavily regulated and capital intensive. So you might have 1-2 million wrapped up in a boat that has a three week license. Sure they make great money in those : weeks, but the boat sets idle for 49 weeks a year. That’s an extreme example but not unheard of. Many places 10 weeks is about all they get.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 12:56:34

Newfie wrote:Fishing is becoming a losing proposition. Not enough fish left to warrant the effort.



Does this represent the beginning of a slow recovery of fish stocks when the fishery no longer becomes economically viable?

This is what happened with whaling in the mid 20th century.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 16:27:46

Ibon wrote:
Newfie wrote:Fishing is becoming a losing proposition. Not enough fish left to warrant the effort.



Does this represent the beginning of a slow recovery of fish stocks when the fishery no longer becomes economically viable?

This is what happened with whaling in the mid 20th century.

This may well be the case, unless new technology allowing further exploitation of currently unprofitable fisheries is developed.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 18:20:49

Is die-off always 20 years in the future? Because it that is the case, I'm ok with it.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 18:50:49

As far as I know we are already about rock bottom. They have been bringing new fish to market for the last 40 years. They introduce them, they deplete them, they move on to something else. One of the most recent was “Orange Roughy”. That’s now an endangered species.

We are about out of new species to exploit. I’m see reports the fish biomass is down about 90%. China has been caught making massive lies about their catches. It’s really a bad scene.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby careinke » Tue 12 Mar 2019, 18:52:46

Cog wrote:Is die-off always 20 years in the future? Because it that is the case, I'm ok with it.


I'm pretty sure it will arrive just before commercial fusion reactors.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 09:26:49

An interesting report from the New York Post if all places.

I like it because it talks about the multiplicity of problems we face. Threat integration.

https://nypost.com/2019/03/13/dire-un-c ... lanet/amp/
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 18:33:18

Newfie wrote:An interesting report from the New York Post if all places.

I like it because it talks about the multiplicity of problems we face. Threat integration.

https://nypost.com/2019/03/13/dire-un-c ... lanet/amp/

Yes, the UN is doing some pretty comprehensive and objective recording of the worsening impacts on the planet from human numbers and activities.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 19:46:39

More on the UN report:

UN Calls for Urgent Rethink as Resource Use Skyrockets

https://phys.org/news/2019-03-urgent-re ... ckets.html

Rapid growth in extraction of materials (and overpopulation) is the chief culprit in climate change and biodiversity loss – a challenge that will only worsen unless the world urgently undertakes a systemic reform of resource use, according to a report released at the UN Environment Assembly.

Global Resources Outlook 2019, prepared by the International Resource Panel, examines the trends in natural resources and their corresponding consumption patterns since the 1970s to support policymakers in strategic decision-making and transitioning to a sustainable economy.

The main conclusions of the report are:

- Resource extraction has more than tripled since 1970, including a fivefold increase in the use of non-metallic minerals and a 45 per cent increase in fossil fuel use

- By 2060, global material use could double to 190 billion tonnes (from 92 billion), while greenhouse gas emissions could increase by 43 per cent

- The extraction and processing of materials, fuels and food contribute half of total global greenhouse gas emissions and over 90 per cent of biodiversity loss and water stress

... "The Global Resources Outlook shows that we are ploughing through this planet's finite resources as if there is no tomorrow, causing climate change and biodiversity loss along the way," said Joyce Msyua, Acting Executive Director of UN Environment. "Frankly, there will be no tomorrow for many people unless we stop."

https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/27518

----------------------------

Related: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... #msg178531

The World Has Reached Peak Chicken, Peak Rice, And Peak Milk

https://www.fastcompany.com/3041927/the ... -peak-milk

We still haven’t reached peak oil. But peak milk happened in 2004, peak soybeans in 2009, and peak chicken in 2006. Rice peaked in 1988.

A new study published in Ecology and Society explains that 21 key resources that humans rely on–mostly food–have already passed their peak rate of production.

“Peak,” in this case, doesn’t mean that we’re actually producing fewer chickens or less milk yet. Instead, the researchers looked at the fact that the rate of production has plateaued, at the same time that population is increasing.

The researchers analyzed production rates over time for 27 key resources, including some fossil fuels. But while they found that nonrenewable resources like coal, oil, and gas haven’t peaked, most foods have.


Open Access: Seppelt, R., A. M. Manceur, J. Liu, E. P. Fenichel, and S. Klotz.

Synchronized peak-rate years of global resources use.

Ecology and Society
19(4): 50. 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-07039-190450

(Thanks to vox at asif for these)
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 20:35:18

More on the UN report:

UN Calls for Urgent Rethink as Resource Use Skyrockets

https://phys.org/news/2019-03-urgent-re ... ckets.html

Rapid growth in extraction of materials (and overpopulation) is the chief culprit in climate change and biodiversity loss – a challenge that will only worsen unless the world urgently undertakes a systemic reform of resource use, according to a report released at the UN Environment Assembly.

Global Resources Outlook 2019, prepared by the International Resource Panel, examines the trends in natural resources and their corresponding consumption patterns since the 1970s to support policymakers in strategic decision-making and transitioning to a sustainable economy.

The main conclusions of the report are:

- Resource extraction has more than tripled since 1970, including a fivefold increase in the use of non-metallic minerals and a 45 per cent increase in fossil fuel use

- By 2060, global material use could double to 190 billion tonnes (from 92 billion), while greenhouse gas emissions could increase by 43 per cent

- The extraction and processing of materials, fuels and food contribute half of total global greenhouse gas emissions and over 90 per cent of biodiversity loss and water stress

... "The Global Resources Outlook shows that we are ploughing through this planet's finite resources as if there is no tomorrow, causing climate change and biodiversity loss along the way," said Joyce Msyua, Acting Executive Director of UN Environment. "Frankly, there will be no tomorrow for many people unless we stop."

https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/27518

----------------------------

Related: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... #msg178531

The World Has Reached Peak Chicken, Peak Rice, And Peak Milk

https://www.fastcompany.com/3041927/the ... -peak-milk

We still haven’t reached peak oil. But peak milk happened in 2004, peak soybeans in 2009, and peak chicken in 2006. Rice peaked in 1988.

A new study published in Ecology and Society explains that 21 key resources that humans rely on–mostly food–have already passed their peak rate of production.

“Peak,” in this case, doesn’t mean that we’re actually producing fewer chickens or less milk yet. Instead, the researchers looked at the fact that the rate of production has plateaued, at the same time that population is increasing.

The researchers analyzed production rates over time for 27 key resources, including some fossil fuels. But while they found that nonrenewable resources like coal, oil, and gas haven’t peaked, most foods have.


Open Access: Seppelt, R., A. M. Manceur, J. Liu, E. P. Fenichel, and S. Klotz.

Synchronized peak-rate years of global resources use.

Ecology and Society
19(4): 50. 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-07039-190450

(Thanks to vox at asif for these)
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Alien species are primary cause of recent global extinctions

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 22 Apr 2019, 23:14:54

The results are in and Climate Change is NOT the driver of species extinction, not even mentioned. The beauty of CC is the catastrophe from warming is always “12 years” into the future. So we still have time to fix this, a carbon tax will surely send all those alien species back to where they came from?

....since 1500, alien species have been solely responsible for 126 extinctions, 13% of the total number studied.

Of 953 global extinctions, 300 happened in some part because of alien species, and of those 300, 42% had alien species alone listed as the cause of their demise.

The study, published today in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, used data from the 2017 IUCN Red List on the total numbers of species that are considered to have gone extinct globally since 1500.

In total, 261 out of 782 animal species (33.4%) and 39 out of 153 plant species (25.5%) listed aliens as one of their extinction drivers. In contrast, native species impacts were associated with only 2.7% of animal extinctions and 4.6% of plant extinctions.


https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2019/mar/ali ... xtinctions
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Yonnipun » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 02:16:55

It really is simple- scientists have worned us that topsoil is gone after 60 years from now. We all are going to die then.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 09:33:49

Yon, many farmers are switching over to no-till farming, which should push that estimate out a bit. Of course, as CC accelerates, cycles of extreme drought and extreme rain will wash away most of the top soil anyway.

And of course it is laughable to say that the negative consequences of CC are always 12 years out. The deadly heatwave in '03 that killed tens of thousands in France and surrounding areas in just a few days was the first single event that could be clearly shown beyond a reasonable doubt to have been impossible without the added influence of GW. Many more have followed. And yes, there are sadly many causes for the current Mass Extinction Event. GW will play an ever larger role in that mega-catastrophe.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Revi » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 09:42:57

It's possible it could start soon, especially if they are right about a blue arctic event within the next 4 years. If you think about a glass of cold drink, it stays cool until the last piece of ice melts and then warms rapidly. It takes 80 calories to melt a gram of ice, but those same 80 calories of heat bring that water to almost boiling at 80C. We live in that cool drink. What do you think is going to happen when the ice melts?

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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 11:25:48

dohboi wrote:And of course it is laughable to say that the negative consequences of CC are always 12 years out. The deadly heatwave in '03 that killed tens of thousands in France and surrounding areas in just a few days was the first single event that could be clearly shown beyond a reasonable doubt to have been impossible without the added influence of GW. Many more have followed. And yes, there are sadly many causes for the current Mass Extinction Event. GW will play an ever larger role in that mega-catastrophe.



From 2003 until 2019 the human population went from 6.3 billion to 7.7 billion. That is an additional 1.4 billion. That tens of thousands have died in a heat wave and hurricanes and tornadoes and flooding during the same time represents an absolute insignificant consequence of CC on the human juggernaut.

I have to agree that it is laughable at this point to attribute CC contributing to human die-off and so yes indeed it is still 12 year out.

When the death rate of CC events exceed the birthrate of the human juggernaut then we are talking some real meaningful consequences. In the mean time..... a big fat yawn.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 21:08:11

Basically, Ibon just said that he will not be impressed until CC directly wipes him out...and he'll be busily yawning right up until that last breath...what a way to go! :D :D :D
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