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Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 25 May 2018, 11:15:43

ralfy wrote:It's too bad that in capitalist systems, efficiency takes place not to decrease consumption but the opposite, and that the goal of businesses is to see increasing consumption because that means more sales, and thus more profits.

It's a waste of time discussing these commonsensical points with Outcast. Use the ignore function.

Yes, heaven forbid someone looks at facts, figures, and real world trends instead of perma-doom FUD.

Efficiency is still taking place, and competition still exists. Pretending that the global ICE fleet mileage hasn't improved meaningfully, or that LED light bulbs aren't FAR more efficient than incandescent because you don't like the profit motives of the "capitalist systems" coming
up with the improvements doesn't change the reality one bit.

Ostriches work that way (ignoring what they don't like to see). Doesn't make them intelligent, though.

Ignore all you want. Good luck finding accurate, usable financial information over time in the doomer porn Cassandra blogs.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 20 Jun 2018, 15:09:05

Oil Production in Permian Basin to be capped in 3-4 months as pipelines are maxed out.

pioneer-chairman-says-permian-faces-shut-ins-on-pipe-shortage]

A new pipeline will be finished in a year or two. Until that happens the Permian has peaked. We'll have to see what the condition of the oil market is in a year or two to determine if production growth in the Permian can start up again.

Image
Oil production in the Permian Basin has temporarily (?) peaked due to infrastructure limits.

Cheers!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 08 Jul 2018, 18:17:26

Global Oil discoveries fell again in 2017---the energy cliff approaches

energy-cliff-approaches-world-oil-gas-discoveries-continue-decline

Once again the oilcos replaced only a small percentage of the oil consumed in 2017.

This can't go on forever.

We're probably only a year or two out from hitting the wall---or in this case----hitting the energy cliff.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 08 Jul 2018, 19:50:13

I look forward to the SRSrocco Report; he is one of the few who understands the real relationship between money, debt and energy. Unfortunately he has a gold/silver agenda, perhaps for one or several reasons. Because his web site supports itself trading/analysis and is a source of income? That's fine with me, as I don't look for purity in any analysis or from any analyst. Perhaps he truly believes precious metals will have lasting value. That precious metals will be a hedge on the way down to a lower-energy lifestyle. Or be the barter of a future feudal economy?

When precious metals have intrinsic value . . . it will already be too late. The end of the fiat money system means the end of global trade, which the United States depends on for minerals, oil, industrial components, and other truly precious commodities that we can no longer source from within the country. So I see stores of shiny metals as having value only in a a pre-industrial trading regime. But that is beyond the American consumer. We stuck at the end of a complex global industrial supply chain where "work" is mostly non-productive . . . paper-pushing, phone-yapping, keyboard-banging business that produces very little . . . but finished toys for of the consumer/import economy. When that stops there is mass chaos and all the gold in the world makes little difference.

Given that: the SRSrocco Report article is right on. Tight shale is a one-time typical oil industry bubble. In spite of rockdoc arm-waving and punditry, there remains no serious attempt anywhere in the world to duplicate the American shale miracle. That depended on clueless investors, a wealthy auto-dependent populace and an pre-existing oil infrastructure (including roads, access to water and existing transport systems) that does not exist anywhere else in the world.
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 11 Jul 2018, 17:49:10

OPEC predicts global oil demand will rise to over 100 million bbls per day in 2019.

opecs-oil-output-jumps-in-june-as-saudi-arabia-opens-the-taps

OPEC's oil production is already being raised to meet 2018 demand, as KSA tries to reach a new all time high in oil production in response to rising global oil prices and Trump's resultant demand that they pump more.

But that raises a question...if KSA and OPEC are already maxing themselves out to meet the increases in 2018 demand, where will the extra oil come from to meet the rising demand in 2019?

Easy, says, OPEC.. The countries outside OPEC will all increase their production in 2019 by 2.1 million bbls/day. And that means the US, because thats where oil production is increasing. And that means the Permian basin because thats the only place in the US where oil production is rapidly rising.

Can the Permian basin oil production go up another ca. 2 million bbls day in 2019?

And how about in 2020? How much more can Permain basin oil production go up? Inquiring minds want to know.....

CHEERS!
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 11 Jul 2018, 20:00:30

OPEC has peaked. If you can stomach the truth, go peakoilbarreldotcom. I've asked the same simple question there over several months. This time it generated a bit of discussion, rather than the usual brush off.
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby tita » Fri 13 Jul 2018, 12:59:10

On the DPR page of EIA, there is a note that wasn't there before:

NOTE:
Productivity estimates may overstate actual production which could be limited by logistical constraints.


I think they refer to the lack of pipeline capacity in the Permian. Obviously, there won't be much growth possible in the Permian until this is resolved, in a year.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... lines.html
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 18:37:36

The International Energy Agency said a few weeks ago that 2018 was shaping up to be a turning point. “Higher prices and operational improvements are putting the US shale sector on track to achieve positive free cash flow in 2018 for the first time ever,” the IEA said.

But as usual, the politicized paper pushers got it wrong.

WSJ, August 12 2018; Frackers Burn Cash to Sustain U.S. Oil Boom
Two-thirds of U.S. oil producers failed to live within their means in the second quarter, even as oil rose above $70 a barrel. Collectively, 50 major U.S. oil companies reported in their second-quarter results that they have spent $2 billion more than they took in, according to an analysis of free cash flow by FactSet.


The days of rapid efficiency improvements appear to be waning industry-wide. Producers during the downturn figured out how to produce more from each well for less money. Since 2016, however, the oil price at which operators can turn a profit drilling a new shale well has flatlined in some parts of the Permian and increased by an average of 17% in others, according to data from Rystad Energy.

Shale Profits Remain Elusive; Nick Cunningham at Oilprice, Aug 15, 2018
"In short, the cost inflation that many in the shale industry had hoped to keep at bay is only getting started" said Nick Cunningham, at Oilprice.com. The money hemorrhaging will only get worse.
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 21 Aug 2018, 20:55:18

To demonstrate how completely dead this forum (and by extension, peak oil itself) is, pstarr's post above from an entire week ago 8O is the most recent post in this entire section ... which used to be the bread and butter section of this forum! :? And if that wasn't bad enough, looking through the front page of this forum, this post of mine right here is the only post in this entire forum today! 8O
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil in 2020s

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 01 Oct 2018, 22:53:20

A new study released by Wood-Mackenzie predicts a major global shortfall in oil production in the mid-2020s.

The-Oil-Industry-Needs-Large-New-Discoveries-Very-Soon

I wonder where the "large new discoveries" will come from?

And if there are no new large discoveries, we're looking at oil demand greatly exceeding oil supply coming up in the next decade---

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 01 Oct 2018, 23:27:34

Discoveries? Ask OilFinder aka copious abundance (or the moderators). Copius has collected/curated an comptehensive database of new oil. It's stunningly empty
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil in 2020s

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 02 Oct 2018, 01:08:48

Plantagenet wrote:And if there are no new large discoveries, we're looking at oil demand greatly exceeding oil supply coming up in the next decade---

Cheers!

Of course, as the price rises, companies will be deploying more resource to do more serious looking, and using better technologies to do so.

But to the extent that's not enough -- good!

If that happens, people might FINALLY be incented to drive far more fuel efficient cars. And within the next decade, there can be a whole lot more HEV. PHEV, and BEV models out there, especially if high oil prices make them far more cost competitive.

Since politicians won't do what's right re a big CO2 tax, let's have the price of crude oil do the trick.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby anarky321 » Tue 02 Oct 2018, 02:55:29

It's not so much that the topic is dead, it's that there isn't much to say at this point, its just a waiting game

shale is the bottom of the barrel (the only thing lower is oil sands), once shale peaks we are officially on the downslope

maybe we will come up with some new energy source but I do not believe so - fossil fuels were an amazing stroke of luck for our species and we squandered them

I've been following this topic for about 15 years now and I've seen nothing to change my mind that our civilization is screwed - and its entirely our fault
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby tita » Fri 08 Feb 2019, 08:46:42

tita wrote:On the DPR page of EIA, there is a note that wasn't there before:

NOTE:
Productivity estimates may overstate actual production which could be limited by logistical constraints.


I think they refer to the lack of pipeline capacity in the Permian. Obviously, there won't be much growth possible in the Permian until this is resolved, in a year.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... lines.html

I haven't followed DPR data since last July. Reason is that I found them quite unreliable. I just made a little comparison on July data vs today. Permian production was well underestimated, while Eagle Ford was quite overestimated, the other region being a few kb/d off.

So the logistical constrain of the pipeline capacity wasn't such a deal after all. EFS production is in stagnation. The growth in US production in 2018 came from Permian (+1 Mb/d), while offshore is second (+300kb/d) and Bakken third (+200 kb/d).

Permian is still at the top, and it will probably stay there for 2019...
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 08 Feb 2019, 19:19:12

anarky321 wrote:It's not so much that the topic is dead, it's that there isn't much to say at this point, its just a waiting game

shale is the bottom of the barrel (the only thing lower is oil sands), once shale peaks we are officially on the downslope

Because technology never improves. Because green energy won't happen. Because doomers are never too pessimistic in their assumptions. :roll:

The EIA says we're golden re oil and NG through 2040 or 2050, minimum.

By 2050, most transport will be from electric.

You can spend your whole life waiting for the end game. What's the point?

...

And no, I don't agree with BAU growth or think it can last forever. But hiding under my bed and predicting fast crash doom my whole life won't change the eventual evolution of humanity or the earth, either.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 09 Feb 2019, 18:37:58

anakry said:

It's not so much that the topic is dead, it's that there isn't much to say at this point, its just a waiting game

shale is the bottom of the barrel (the only thing lower is oil sands), once shale peaks we are officially on the downslope


Shale has to produce enough product to compensate for its own legacy decline, and the ongoing decline in conventional to prevent the world from Peaking. The numbers are simple and straight forward. The 2018 legacy decline of Shale will have to be overcome in 2019. That will be 1.43 mb/d (8.03 mb/d * 0.178). Conventional at least 2.4 mb/d, for a total of 3.83 mb/d. At the average 2018 production per rig of 8.7 b/d in the Shale patch the number of rigs needed will fall short by 50%. To prevent Peak the Martins had better supply horizontal rigs, and fast! Peak is here, but the question is: "what does that mean?".
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 09 Feb 2019, 20:38:47

At the average 2018 production per rig of 8.7 b/d in the Shale patch the number of rigs needed will fall short by 50%


Well that number isn’t backed up by the EIA https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/wells/

According to EIA 12% of production is from all wells with production rates below 10 bbls /d which compares to 42% of production with rates from 100 – 800 bbls/d and about 30% with production rates higher than 800 bbls/d

Even if we just look at all horizontal wells only 14% have rates at less than 10 bbls/d and 30% have rates higher than 100 bbls/d.

So unless you have magical math behind you there is no way the average production can be that low.

and as I've said previously you're calculation assumes production decline is not two stage which it has been proven to be in each and every unconventional reservoir as was predicted in rock mechanic theory. But of course you don't want facts to get in the way of your nonsensical rants now do you? :roll:
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