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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 21:34:59

Oil drilling will continue after gobal peak occurs. That simple trick that doomers don't want you to know about.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 21:53:31

PS: for information on Giant Oil Fields see


please show us where it says all those fields are on EOR. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 09:52:01

The lack of oil in the future will not bring down civilisation, but it will most certainly put an end to "growth" and the current economic model.


Essentially that is true; the world does not lack oil; it lacks oil that can power growth (high ERoEI). Without growth the debt based fiat currency system used by the world goes into reverse, and collapses from its own debt creation. Debt creation that is essential to the functioning of that system. It then reaches its Minsky Moment: Minsky Moment - "the moment of debt saturation where income does not even cover interest rate expenses, let alone capital, and where a deceleration in credit expansion is all it takes to set the tall pile of debt on fire."

The US will have a production decline of at least 1.4 mb/d in 2019. The only way that will not happen would be if Shale producers over pump their wells. They can do that by using extraction rates that would allow the temperature in the formations to fall. Such an approach would completely, and permanently destroy the wells. Once the bubble point is reached the heavies fall out, and all that remains is gas. They would get a small bump in production just before it goes to nothing. It just doesn't seem likely that many producers would be willing to destroy multi million dollar wells.

The decline in US production will drive the credit markets to their brink. Once world Peak is recognized there will be a massive reshuffling in the financial system by investors in an attempt to protect their capital. Credit markets will freeze, trade will come to a standstill, and supply lines will fail. The world's ominous, and massive debt bomb will have gone off! The world will then have 1,800 Gb of liquid hydrocarbons that it will never be able to use.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby baha » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 10:40:45

shortonoil wrote:The world will then have 1,800 Gb of liquid hydrocarbons that it will never be able to use.


I think that could turn out to be a true statement. For whatever reason, or a combination of reasons. Eroei, a credit freeze, govt policy, and demand destruction could easily combine to destroy the economics of FFs.

And when the line is passed it will all happen relatively fast.
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.
I will see your google and raise you an infinity!

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 11:17:03

Don't you guys have an ETP thread to put this garbage in?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 12:04:25

The US will have a production decline of at least 1.4 mb/d in 2019. The only way that will not happen would be if Shale producers over pump their wells. They can do that by using extraction rates that would allow the temperature in the formations to fall. Such an approach would completely, and permanently destroy the wells. Once the bubble point is reached the heavies fall out, and all that remains is gas. 


Lets just add this to Stupid things that Shortonoil says

First off the phase change in reservoir fluids has little relationship to temperature as the temperature in the reservoir does not change during production. It is the pressure that affects the stability field. That being said “completely destroy the wells” is beyond ridiculous. As a well when natural gas containing liquids is being produced there is a pressure drop over time in the reservoir but more importantly in the tubing string as the gas column is lifted. This results in fluids falling out from the gas. In almost all cases this is not much of a problem as the use of PCP or ESP pumps (standard in gas wells which have high liquid content) allows for all the fluids to be lifted past the gas. The only case where there is a potential problem is in a retrograde condensate where gas condenses in the reservoir instead of expanding or vaporizing with pressure depletion. This results in liquids dropping out in the formation that are difficult to move. But again this isn’t a common phenomenon in shale reservoirs, certainly no moreso than in any other condensate reservoir. As I have stated previously the hydrocarbons produced from shale reservoirs vary all the way from dry gas, through condensate, volatile oil and black oil. For some bizarre reason, you are still on this kick that all production from shale reservoirs is condensate, which it is not. And it is a phenomenon that after 60 some years of producers dealing with it they are pretty much prepared to handle. Just find an unconventional reservoir that has been shutin because of retrograde condensate conditions...I doubt you will.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Abdii » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 12:50:57

shortonoil wrote:
The lack of oil in the future will not bring down civilisation, but it will most certainly put an end to "growth" and the current economic model.


Essentially that is true; the world does not lack oil; it lacks oil that can power growth (high ERoEI). Without growth the debt based fiat currency system used by the world goes into reverse, and collapses from its own debt creation. Debt creation that is essential to the functioning of that system. It then reaches its Minsky Moment: Minsky Moment - "the moment of debt saturation where income does not even cover interest rate expenses, let alone capital, and where a deceleration in credit expansion is all it takes to set the tall pile of debt on fire."

The US will have a production decline of at least 1.4 mb/d in 2019. The only way that will not happen would be if Shale producers over pump their wells. They can do that by using extraction rates that would allow the temperature in the formations to fall. Such an approach would completely, and permanently destroy the wells. Once the bubble point is reached the heavies fall out, and all that remains is gas. They would get a small bump in production just before it goes to nothing. It just doesn't seem likely that many producers would be willing to destroy multi million dollar wells.

The decline in US production will drive the credit markets to their brink. Once world Peak is recognized there will be a massive reshuffling in the financial system by investors in an attempt to protect their capital. Credit markets will freeze, trade will come to a standstill, and supply lines will fail. The world's ominous, and massive debt bomb will have gone off! The world will then have 1,800 Gb of liquid hydrocarbons that it will never be able to use.
Image


Hey short thanks for responding to my earlier questions. I remember in 2016 shale oil declined and people were panicking because they thought the economy was going to crash in 2016 but Permain oil saved the day. I dont think shale oil will come to rescue this time.

Have you seen the latest IEA report btw, i dont know if im allowed to post a link on here but here it is:

https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/ ... shock.html

This is IEA not some random guy on the internet living is his mums basement saying this is the end of the world! In the report IEA clearly state that we need continuous shale oil production but we know shale oil won't save the day anymore.

I remember i was discussing peak oil with friend of mine and i remember he mentioned that all the world troubles that is going on right now and troubles that is ahead most people won’t have a clue whats really causing/caused it. What really matters is the global economy (finance). A oil shock will be preceded by an economic collapse and i predict it will happen sometime in 2020-2021 latest then its going be a domino effect to a Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. Humans are predictable all you have to do is look at back at history!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 13:20:08

baha wrote:
shortonoil wrote:The world will then have 1,800 Gb of liquid hydrocarbons that it will never be able to use.


I think that could turn out to be a true statement. For whatever reason, or a combination of reasons. Eroei, a credit freeze, govt policy, and demand destruction could easily combine to destroy the economics of FFs.

And when the line is passed it will all happen relatively fast.

Let's not forget that in coming decades, declining demand for oil and gas due to electric transport will almost certainly be a big factor. So big that peak demand could well make declining production irrelevant -- at least for several decades or more.

And of course, despite ETP nonsense, science and technology is likely to make more oil and gas recoverable over time, economically, should we need it for petrochemicals.

Just because things will be different, does not imply doom. A lesson that has been borne out since, say, when agriculture was invented.

Not that fast crash doomers will stop claiming that the next short term event they're spreading FUD about is "the big one". :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 13:24:31

rockdoc123 wrote:
The US will have a production decline of at least 1.4 mb/d in 2019. The only way that will not happen would be if Shale producers over pump their wells. They can do that by using extraction rates that would allow the temperature in the formations to fall. Such an approach would completely, and permanently destroy the wells. Once the bubble point is reached the heavies fall out, and all that remains is gas. 


Lets just add this to Stupid things that Shortonoil says

First off the phase change in reservoir fluids has little relationship to temperature as the temperature in the reservoir does not change during production. It is the pressure that affects the stability field. That being said “completely destroy the wells” is beyond ridiculous. As a well when natural gas containing liquids is being produced there is a pressure drop over time in the reservoir but more importantly in the tubing string as the gas column is lifted. This results in fluids falling out from the gas. In almost all cases this is not much of a problem as the use of PCP or ESP pumps (standard in gas wells which have high liquid content) allows for all the fluids to be lifted past the gas. The only case where there is a potential problem is in a retrograde condensate where gas condenses in the reservoir instead of expanding or vaporizing with pressure depletion. This results in liquids dropping out in the formation that are difficult to move. But again this isn’t a common phenomenon in shale reservoirs, certainly no moreso than in any other condensate reservoir. As I have stated previously the hydrocarbons produced from shale reservoirs vary all the way from dry gas, through condensate, volatile oil and black oil. For some bizarre reason, you are still on this kick that all production from shale reservoirs is condensate, which it is not. And it is a phenomenon that after 60 some years of producers dealing with it they are pretty much prepared to handle. Just find an unconventional reservoir that has been shutin because of retrograde condensate conditions...I doubt you will.

Thanks Rock, for pointing this out so clearly. For us laymen (not in the oil business, but who care about energy issues) who care about facts, data, trends, etc. -- such illumination is helpful.

Apparently shorty will just (more or less endlessly) babble about the next thing he intuitively sees an issue with to sell pamphlets, or gain attention. Sad, really.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 13:26:42

Cog wrote:Don't you guys have an ETP thread to put this garbage in?

It's not quite so much fun for fast crash doomers to crow or babble about how the stock market is crashing and doom is in our face when the stock market isn't crashing. :roll:
Meanwhile in the real world, quite a few companies are lowering earnings projections. Pundits are saying the recent stock market decline might well be related to big market players believing this was coming, and reacting ahead of time.

Not doom -- normal market activity, where the market tries to look 6 months or so ahead (with mixed success, over time).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 13:34:37

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Cog wrote:Don't you guys have an ETP thread to put this garbage in?

It's not quite so much fun for fast crash doomers to crow or babble about how the stock market is crashing and doom is in our face when the stock market isn't crashing. :roll:
Meanwhile in the real world, quite a few companies are lowering earnings projections. Pundits are saying the recent stock market decline might well be related to big market players believing this was coming, and reacting ahead of time.

Not doom -- normal market activity, where the market tries to look 6 months or so ahead (with mixed success, over time).


The world stock market is down USD 15 Trillion. The U.S stock market is down 10 percent.

Next week the violent collapse continues.

Even OS is out from the markets.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby mmasters » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 14:03:41

If the fed keeps pushing rates higher it will be a bear market for sure. It all hinges on the fed.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 14:06:47

Yoshua wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Cog wrote:Don't you guys have an ETP thread to put this garbage in?

It's not quite so much fun for fast crash doomers to crow or babble about how the stock market is crashing and doom is in our face when the stock market isn't crashing. :roll:
Meanwhile in the real world, quite a few companies are lowering earnings projections. Pundits are saying the recent stock market decline might well be related to big market players believing this was coming, and reacting ahead of time.

Not doom -- normal market activity, where the market tries to look 6 months or so ahead (with mixed success, over time).


The world stock market is down USD 15 Trillion. The U.S stock market is down 10 percent.

Next week the violent collapse continues.

Even OS is out from the markets.

Yoshua spouting nonsense. Same as it ever was.

Explain how a 10% decline in concerning, much less remotely, a crash. Especially after a nearly 10 year run of a big bull trend.

Provide your multiple credible sources for why the market decline continues. (There is no "violent collapse", except in our delusions. If you can't cite anything meaningful, why spout your meaningless fantasies? At that point, you're just wasting peoples' time.)

Since I'm not "out of the markets" even if we have a full blown depression, 1930's style, and since I keep close to half my assets in near-cash so I don't have to worry about market fluctuations, again -- why spout empty delusions?

Is there any point at which folks like you spouting endless nonsense with zero foundation violates the site's rules of conduct?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 14:11:42

mmasters wrote:If the fed keeps pushing rates higher it will be a bear market for sure. It all hinges on the fed.

And you know this, how? Because some pundits believe this?

How much higher? How fast? Against what factors in the economy?

It's NOT as simple as saying X% interest rates mean a "crash". We had 20%+ rates in 1981-2, and it caused a recession -- and led to a big bull market, as it flushed a lot of the inflation out of the economy. Even that didn't cause a "crash".

I'm NOT saying there won't be a bear market. There may well be. I am saying that after 10ish years of growth and huge financial gains in the markets, that would be perfectly normal and healthy. And despite the claims of fast crash doomers, all stock market declines aren't "crashes". It's like they need a meaningful hobby or something.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Abdii » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 14:28:02

Yoshua i also believe right now the global economy is collapsing and i also believe world oil production has peaked but peak doesn’t happen on a Monday morning, it happens over couple of years. Money is an expression of energy and because we are peaking, this is why we are seeing the financial system going haywire.

An energy crisis will manifest as a financial crisis, which will precipitate the halt of its dependent systems, which happen to be energy production.It becomes a death spiral as a result of feedback loops. The upcoming financial crunch is gonna be it and i believe it will happen in the couple of years 2-3 years at most then the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse will follow.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 14:34:09

Abdii wrote:Yoshua i also believe right now the global economy is collapsing and i also believe world oil production has peaked but peak doesn’t happen on a Monday morning, it happens over couple of years. Money is an expression of energy and because we are peaking, this is why we are seeing the financial system going haywire.

An energy crisis will manifest as a financial crisis, which will precipitate the halt of its dependent systems, which happen to be energy production.It becomes a death spiral as a result of feedback loops. The upcoming financial crunch is gonna be it and i believe it will happen in the couple of years 2-3 years at most then the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse will follow.

Thanks for all the credible citations, data, etc, to back up what you believe. :roll:

But nice job getting lots of doomer buzzwords into your forecast.

Personally, I believe the universe is run by purple unicorns. And I'll offer as many citations as you did. :razz:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby mmasters » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 15:04:23

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
mmasters wrote:If the fed keeps pushing rates higher it will be a bear market for sure. It all hinges on the fed.

And you know this, how? Because some pundits believe this?

How much higher? How fast? Against what factors in the economy?

I see the general big picture. I did used to work at Goldman and Lehman Brothers (though I wasn't a trader, I designed software for them). I can't say with detail how it is all going to play out. I think the Fed could only push rates a few percent higher at most. The system is a little too delicate with all the financial instruments out there to handle more than a few %. The overall market is so complex and tactically managed at this point nobody can really read it. The Rothschilds recently got out of the business of managing other people's money. That should tell you something.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 15:09:09

The Fed, when they do raise the rates, are going .25% per quarter or 1% on the year. Its not like a dramatic rise.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 15:19:08

mmasters wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
mmasters wrote:If the fed keeps pushing rates higher it will be a bear market for sure. It all hinges on the fed.

And you know this, how? Because some pundits believe this?

How much higher? How fast? Against what factors in the economy?

I see the general big picture. I did used to work at Goldman and Lehman Brothers (though I wasn't a trader, I designed software for them). I can't say with detail how it is all going to play out. I think the Fed could only push rates a few percent higher at most. The system is a little too delicate with all the financial instruments out there to handle more than a few %. The overall market is so complex and tactically managed at this point nobody can really read it. The Rothschilds recently got out of the business of managing other people's money. That should tell you something.

Fine. I agree with all of this (except the Rothschilds sentence, which I neither know nor care about).

But so what? The Fed tries to balance inflation and economic growth. Like Cog said (and I've seen many places that follow finances), the plan is for perhaps a 1% raise in 2019, or less if growth slows too much.

So I don't see any problem from the Fed's plan. It would be nice, IMO, to get back to more normal interest rates over time, as monetary policy then has a lot more choices and oomph to deal with economic issues, via interest rates.

It used to be that the Fed's primary mission was to control inflation, and if higher rates caused a recession, well, too bad. Their newer mission calls for a balancing of growth and inflation. Unfortunately, I think that makes errors on the side of allowing too much inflation more likely -- but it makes them less likely to aggressively push the economy into a recession in any given cycle.

Forecasting things more specifically than that is, IMO, like trying to count angels dancing on heads of pins (not that tens of thousands of pundits don't claim they can do that).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 15:28:00

Now that we have got this thread back on track about the stock market, please take your ETP discussions to the appropriate thread.
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