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PeakOil is You

THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 11 Jan 2019, 20:59:55

Face it, Lithium is the wrong battery chemistry. Mining has to get hugely cheaper and with Lithium that can never happen.

Your only hope is Magnesium. Now you have the problem the battery is too big and heavy. You're doomed.

The Tesla scam has never produced an economic vehicle in its lifetime. Of course, the MMT cranks like baha don't care. They want to print useless products that have no economic purpose and they are doing a great job.

Outcast_Searcher has no credibility either because he believes in runaway trade deficits.

The USD is beginning to collapse again. Have fun buying a useless car with a worthless currency.
Last edited by StarvingLion on Fri 11 Jan 2019, 21:44:18, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby GHung » Fri 11 Jan 2019, 21:06:11

StarvingLion wrote:.........

The USD is beginning to collapse again. Have fun buying a useless car with a worthless currency.


Shit,,, I'll just stay home like I do most of the time anyway. I wouldn't mind having an old solar-charged Leaf or somesuch, just because....
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 11 Jan 2019, 21:33:05

asg70 wrote:There was a piece in Wired magazine lately that documented the production-hell at Tesla in unprecedented level of detail. Elon Musk thinks he's just being aggressive but his approach is ultimately a form of mismanagement. Engineers tend not to make good managers because they're more interested in solving problems than operations. They have trouble adopting an if it ain't broke, don't fix it approach. The end result is a lot of trial and error that is great when you have an unlimited R&D budget but not when you have to just go pencils down and ship lots of quality and reliable finished product. I think industry people realize this but Musk doesn't and this is part of why he can't retain C-level talent. So instead he just tries to run the floor himself but he's just out of his element in a lot of areas as nobody is an expert in everything.

A lot of the design considerations of the Model 3 are really not relevant at its current pricepoint. They probably could have gotten by with an all aluminum body like the Model S if that's so much of an issue. Same deal with making it a sedan vs. a small SUV. They did all this to be able to sell it at $35K and it didn't pan out so they just punted the base car indefinitely. In the short-run it hasn't shown up on the balance-sheets but he pissed off a lot of first-day reservists and the market for more of an upscale vehicle has limits.

When I look at the big picture I really think VW has a better shot than Tesla long-term. The current VW is pretty far removed from the Dieselgate scandal. All of the people involved have been purged. And it scarred them enough to want to push towards EVs as a rebranding effort. They have expertise in operating at scale where Tesla lacks. The only thing they need to prove is that they can source enough batteries.


Mickey Musk has a Physics problem. He doesn't know how to put a Magnesium battery in the Model 3.

The Physics Failures at The Physically, Morally Bankrupt "Federal" "Reserve" are worse than useless. Modern Physics (Quantum Fields and Relativity) is rubbish and now seen by the fact that this Command Economy Scam called Tesla can't deliver 18th Century Battery Technology. Keep worshipping their junk physics, and you'll soon be a carcass pushed around by a bulldozer.

Even MMT Crackpot asg70 has now abandoned Tesla Motors as a lost cause. Fake money doesn't work.

You people may as well just tie two Powerwall batteries to your ankles and hurl yourselves into the nearest lake.

Diesel, its a hit, don't give me any of that do-good good bullshit.

Doomed by The Diesel Bulldozer.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 02:22:30

StarvingLion wrote:...you'll soon be a carcass pushed around by a bulldozer.


And you'll be any better off? I mean, lots of blind schadenfreude going on, but in your hopeless scenario you're in the same damn boat as the rest of us, so wipe the smug off your face.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 04:04:00

I want to be brutally honest about this.

EVs are NOT BETTER than ICE at this time, in this place, with this economy.

They cost too much, they take extra time to recharge versus refueling, and they have disadvantages in cold weather.

However, they are more than good enough to replace most ICE vehicles for most people. They will get even better, and quite rapidly.

There will also be a time, not too far from today, when they represent the only remotely affordable solution for the personal transportation of most people.

Be ready to buy one at the proper time, or get a bicycle, or hoof it.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby baha » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 06:19:50

KJ - You are thinking with your wallet again. "Better" can have several definitions.

The Model 3's most direct competitor is the Lexus RX. It starts at $43500 and goes up from there. Same as the Tesla. More people with the money to buy a luxury car have picked the Model 3 over the Lexus.

In ten years the Lexus will be choking on it's own carbon buildup in the combustion chamber. The clutches in the transmission will be worn out. The muffler will be rusted out. The recommended maintenance you people do and pay for just horrifies me. I've never paid for maintenance in my life.

Do you know the expected lifetime of an electric motor? Neither do I but it beats the shit out of an ICE. When I got my VW squareback it had a mouse nest inside the vent fan. I took it apart, cleaned and oiled it, and that 40 year old electric motor started right up and is still running. There are 3 moving parts because it has brushes. AC motors don't have brushes...that leaves 1 moving part.

They say the sweet spot for range of a commuter car is about 150 miles. At this point EVs have 250 miles range to overcome range anxiety. But in the end most people will opt for less range which is cheaper.

Again, this is a lifestyle change. You have to think differently. If you are a commuter, you plan each week to stop at a gas station somewhere along the way to fill up. This is part of your lifestyle. It doesn't take long but you have to go out of your way and spend extra time doing it. My wife doesn't...She goes back and forth to work without ever stopping along the way to fuel up. No more lines, no more CC transactions, just drive :) She plugs it in when she gets home and we go for a walk. This is the lifestyle I want to live.

You go on a trip. You have to stop and fill up along the way. Usually you stop for gas and then go to a restaurant for lunch. I can combine these activities. Superchargers are always near destinations. I can park, plug in, and walk away to shop or eat lunch. An hour later when I'm ready to ride again, so is the car. I never have to go out of my way to fuel up.

Winter commuting is also different. My wife warms the car before she goes outside. There is no crank it up and waste gas while you wait for it to warm up. It's a heat pump. You turn it on and it's warm. If you get in it cold and turn on the heat it is instantly warm. Beats the shit out of an ICE vehicle. Range is affected but not as much as you think...10 to 20%.

Get off your high horse and admit you can't afford a Model X...neither can I :) You don't want to compromise on seating for 6 so you will have to pay more for anything. Hold out a little longer and the Model Y might meet your needs.

But the reality is the ROI of this car is already better than a Lexus RX. And it's sexy :)
Last edited by baha on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 07:19:16, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Cog » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 07:07:59

It's all good until you are replacing that battery pack because they lose capacity over time. You are also going to find out that things wear out on EV'S just like Ice vehicles.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 08:10:48

Cog wrote:It's all good until you are replacing that battery pack because they lose capacity over time. You are also going to find out that things wear out on EV'S just like Ice vehicles.

Have a look at this guy's youtube channel, he has dismantled several EVs over the year to teach his students how they are built and how to maintain.

The batteries do have an extremely long life and if the vehicle is well looked after it may go through two or three sets before it is scrapped, not a major issue as the battery packs can be reused to store home generated power (powerwall and the like).
The main takeaway from the videos is that the simplicity of the motor and transmission are replaced by the complexity of the controller and battery management systems. But still far fewer moving parts to wear out and it is non-polluting.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby baha » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 08:25:56

What things do you mean Cog? Wheel bearings? Have you ever replaced a wheel bearing? I have. It's incredibly cheap compared to an exhaust system.

Brake pads? I don't use the brakes until I'm going less than 10 mph. They're going to last a long time at that rate. 5 times as long as an ICE vehicle.

Again, think deeper...what is there to wear out? Door hinges? I've replaced those too, after 30 years. Of all the service you have ever done to your car how much of it was directly related to the IC engine and transmission? I would think 90%. Unless it's a lemon.

Spark plugs, thermostats, rubber hoses, belts, oil filters, air filters, fluid levels...I just can't find any of those things on this car :)

The battery is warrantied for 80% capacity after 8 years. That's still 208 miles. Still within the commuter sweet spot. I will replace it in ten years with a bigger one so I can tow a teardrop camper :)
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 09:42:00

It's a small car you paid $60K+ for. Most people never do the long term maintenance you talk about because they own a car less than 10 years. A good many get recycled by age 15.

In fact you can buy an inexpensive small car, say a very fuel efficient turbo 4-cylinder Honda or Toyota, drive it for 10 years, and sell it, and your cost per mile is gonna be way lower than a Tesla EV.

There is a significant used Tesla marketplace in California where most US EVs were sold. Tesla model S depreciates at $20K/yr, Model X at $30k/yr, and Model 3 who knows yet, as 3/4ths of the used Teslas are Model S. But your major expense is depreciation, not realized until you sell it.

This is what I meant when I said Tesla EVs are not yet affordable. But you wouldn't know in most parts of the country because they are fairly rare every where but California. But my guess is that whatever mileage on your Model 3, it would today have a resale value about $20K less than you paid, because that much is what it depreciated on Day 1. On day 366 (or whenever it is two model years old), it will be worth about $35K less than you paid. Similar depreciation happens here to high end luxury cars such as Mercedes, Audii, and BMW, especially the most expensive models. In some brands such as Italian exotics like Ferrari, Lamborghini, etc., and Rolls/Bently, an odd thing happens, the collectible high end models appreciate, the lower priced models all depreciate as they are far more common and priced below $100K.

Look, I admire an early adopter. But I can't afford a Tesla, because of depreciation. I know you plan to keep yours forever, and avoid ever paying depreciation. That may or may not work out, life throws curve balls all the time.

Even if the oil peak happened in 2018, petroleum fuels will exist for decades more, as the distribution network of 600,000+ fuel stations erodes away and an EV rapid charger network replaces them. IMHO, the crossover point where EVs become cheaper is 2-3 decades from now.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 12:32:19

baha wrote:what is there to wear out?


Image

It's a Tesla. People have experienced complete drive-unit failures driving out of the delivery centers (yes, despite the simplicity of electric motors vs. gas engines). I know EVs in theory are lower maintenance but Tesla's reliability numbers are atrocious and getting service done can often be very slow. So I hope you know what you signed on for. The car is far more likely to experience problems than most ICE cars, not because it's an EV, but due to Tesla's incompetent manufacturing skills and QC corner-cutting. It's not FUD, just a known statistic that is often ignored amidst the boutique halo of the brand.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 13:44:21

asg70 wrote:
baha wrote:what is there to wear out?

To a simple guy like me, that just wants a reliable car with little hassles, a far better question is "How likely are things to fail"?

Per both rankings from respected outfits like Consumer Reports and JD Power Associates, with the better ICE models from the mature, high quality Japanese companies like Toyota and Honda, the answer is "not very likely at all, if routine maintenance is done", for a good 10 years or 100,000ish miles.

I routinely expect to have zero defects in my Toyotas, and not to start having things like sensor problems for ten years or so. Even then, they can still be highly reliable until the mileage gets very high. This is consistent with the findings of Consumer Reports, overall.

But with Teslas, despite the incessant fanboi denial, lots of annoying problems, from small to large get reported. This is reflected in Consumer Reports generally mediocre at best overall ratings for reliability and durability.

Maybe in 5 or 10 years, Tesla will have as few problems as Toyota with things like paint, gaps, door handles, seats, drive units, etc. And maybe in 5 or 10 years the batteries will be so good and the management software will be so good that there will be no worries about leaving them parked for days in the cold, etc.

But they're not there yet, and the frequent slow service at the service centers reflects that.

It's not that there is anything "wrong" with Tesla, as a new company gearing up quality control. The problem is the mindless fanbois try to project an image of perfection, trying to goose the stock price.

Most middle class customers want and deserve great reliability from their cars -- after all they depend on them. Tesla isn't just going to magically dominate that market (even if they make enough cars), without getting its quality and service reputation together. After warranty parts cost too.

There's a reason the US Big Three became the "Little Three", and the Japanese companies like Honda and Toyota dominate, in terms of quality and durability. Marketing can only do so much. At the end of the day, results and reputation matters, especially when one's products are very expensive (like cars).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby baha » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 08:04:51

ASG and OS, you have revealed your doomer tendencies. I have often wondered why you hang out on a doomer website to point out the errors of our ways. Because deep down inside you are also doomers. Nothing could ever go right.

I'm sure you realize that Tesla has been under a microscope since the beginning. TPTB are threatened by their very existence. The people who have never driven one continuously bad mouth everything they can think of. The reviewers that actually drive one have to admit it is possibly the best car ever built. It is definitely the safest car you can buy. I think they are past the growing pains on the Model 3.

I did my homework. I watched hours of video reviews and I have personally talked with dozens of Tesla owners. But even so I was planning to build my own EVW simply because I would know how to fix it.

But my wife doesn't want to hear that shit! For some reason she trusts Tesla more than me. She doesn't want an experimental car. She wants a production luxury Electric Vehicle...Women :cry: This is her money and if I don't go along with it she won't let me drive. Also the Tesla Raleigh service center is 5 minutes from her office :)

I have worked with Tesla for 2 years. They have organizational problems but their technical expertise is unmatched. Tech support always answers right away with a human in CA who is very knowledgeable. Any non-mechanical problems can be fixed over the airwaves with a software update. Tesla is continuously analysing real world operation and updating code. My Powerwall is now at version 1.31.0. The big automakers can't even conceive of doing that.

I see the Model 3 as the VW beetle of EVs. This is the first mass produced EV that is affordable to the general public. It will be a collectors car. It may not be worth a lot of money but it will always be unique. I like that. If they have problems and the resale is low that works in my favor. I can buy a few extras to keep around for spare parts. This car is the VW beetle of the future :)

And above all...I am living in the way I want to live. I am moving away from FFs as fast as I can. I may stumble along the way but I going to make this happen and I'm going to bring you with me.

And I will still build my EVW just for fun :)
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby baha » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 09:29:53

I think this is a very balanced review of the Tesla Model 3 by an industry insider.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FH_x_8Ukhmo&t=2920s
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 14:42:32

baha wrote:ASG and OS, you have revealed your doomer tendencies. I have often wondered why you hang out on a doomer website to point out the errors of our ways. Because deep down inside you are also doomers. Nothing could ever go right.

Wow. I think you're projecting a LOT to think that because we point out issues with Tesla's business, that we have "doomer tendencies".

I'm bullish on the EV business overall. Unlike many BEV purists, I think HEV's and PHEV's are likely to be great, practical transitional vehicles. I also think the transition will take three to five decades (the third world will take longer).

I'm REALLY looking forward to a number of mainstream car companies putting out quality middle class BEV's within the next few years, as well as the likely impact on price, ease of service, etc. I want a BEV, but I have no interest in being an early adopter and the risks of that.

It doesn't MATTER whether Tesla dominates or ends up bankrupt. EV's will still prevail over time, and that's great news for humans and the entire biosphere.

Unless I've misread him badly, ASG is (roughly) in the same camp. I believe he believes the transition to EV's will be quicker than I do.

So how is it that this makes us doomers or pessimists?

...

Oh, and note I said nothing about your car or whether you should have bought your car, will enjoy your car, etc. I was pointing out various information from various sources about some quality issues with Tesla, which as I recall, I mentioned wasn't surprising for a young car company.

As I said earlier when you bought your car. Congratulations on your Tesla. I hope you enjoy it. I was (and am) 100% sincere about that.

Relax. Not being a Tesla fanboi in NO way implies someone is a doomer, or even not a fan of BEV's.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 15:48:02

baha wrote:I did my homework.


All this boasting is meaningless. You're speaking purely out of faith, not experience. Check back with us in a year or so and let us know how many problems you rack up.

baha wrote:I see the Model 3 as the VW beetle of EVs.


I think the VW beetle of EVs will be arriving...courtesy of VW. The MEB platform.

baha wrote: This is the first mass produced EV that is affordable to the general public.


It's not because the $35K car is still vaporware. The Bolt, Kona, and eNiro are more like it, just supply-limited.

baha wrote:It will be a collectors car


Teslas out of warranty will have poor resale value because repair costs are astronomical and they are doing everything in their power to inhibit DIY/shade-tree mechanics.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 19:41:55

asg70 wrote:Teslas out of warranty will have poor resale value because repair costs are astronomical and they are doing everything in their power to inhibit DIY/shade-tree mechanics.

I still think that, ironically, in the short run, maintenance concerns are the biggest issue for Teslas for the middle class. Reliability and convenience are key for middle class cars and their servicing. Telsa doesn't have many service centers. They are adding them very sluggishly, given how many cars they're selling. They supposedly have the mobile service to make up for that, but I keep seeing negatives about that. Most recently, on a Tesla site blog, about how owners need to guarantee a dry, enclosed, 45 degree working environment. Well, for anyone north of Kentucky, that's hard to do at least 4 months of the year a couple weeks ahead, UNLESS the Tesla owner wanting service has a heated garage. And of course, for anything major, needing a lift, etc., that's not an option anyway.

As a potential Tesla, customer in KY, a $50,000 and up price, no service centers in the state, the service reputation including random availability of the mobile service, plus the spotty quality/durability issues and the after-warranty costs -- it's not even a credible option for me. (I want VALUE from my cars.) Now, if the VW offerings over the next 2 or 3 years look good and they take care of their customers (Consumer Reports will tell the tale), and the prices are reasonable as expected -- VW with a dealer in easy biking or even walking distance is a whole different story -- just to cite one well established car company alternative.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 14 Jan 2019, 01:03:20

Between how and the first round of MEB cars from VW the low-end is wide open for Hyundai and Kia. The Bolt has styling issues and GM is facing the same phase-out of tax credits as Tesla. Tesla can't make the standard range Model 3, hence the "middle range" nonsense. Just...the value proposition...it ain't there. They'll keep selling a lot but it's limited to more of an upscale demographic.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 14 Jan 2019, 13:26:12

I sat in a Model 3 and drove it briefly when it was new. Frankly, it pinched my butt, it was too small, and the interior was stark and not that appealling. I was not willing to pay the sticker price which on the one I drove, was $68,000.

It really seemed like a car you would buy your teenager, maybe when they went to college. But you should spend like $20k for that.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 14 Jan 2019, 15:25:15

dolanbaker wrote:The batteries do have an extremely long life and if the vehicle is well looked after it may go through two or three sets before it is scrapped, not a major issue as the battery packs can be reused to store home generated power (powerwall and the like).

The batteries MAY have an extremely long life, depending on how they are treated. Things like fast charging and wide temperature variance and nearly sapping the battery are still issues (the severity seems to vary widely between various models of BEV). We'll know more in time, of course.

I can't agree it's not a major issue, however. If a used ICE car fails and I need to spend $5000 on a new transmission, for example, I would consider that a major issue, especially if the car is worth well under $10,000 at the time. And that $8000 or so for a large EV battery, including labor, etc, has to be considered a maintenance cost for an EV. Hardly trivial.

And that's nice if the battery packs can be re-used, but what does that mean financially for the consumer? Either a likely small rebate on the new battery (Toyota has done this for Prius battery replacements, for example), or a discount on buying some very expensive Powerwall or similar system -- but it's not like this will make up for the big expense of that battery replacement in the car -- not even close. And what does that do to any warranty one might get compared to a new system with a new battery?

I'm just not sold on some big economic value for the used batteries. They're great in relative terms for the environment if they don't have to be scrapped or recycled -- I'm talking in terms of net financial impact to the consumer who keeps one for re-use.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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