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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dissident » Tue 01 Jan 2019, 16:51:51

dohboi wrote:Overview of some of the beyond-extreme weather events this year, all very likely exacerbated by CC:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/20 ... a7bf5b4479


The trend towards increasing rates of such events and their increasing intensity is the new normal as we are in a climate transition regime driven by the persistent yearly increase in greenhouse gas loading of the atmosphere. All the variability kooks have to explain where this trend is coming from. They implicitly and explicitly claim that the current climate change is within the "norm". That is equivalent to the statement that we have equilibrated climate statistics. So no 5 sigma deviations with secular trends should be occurring.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 01 Jan 2019, 20:39:33

Good points, dis.

Meanwhile:

Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm

18 December 2018, by James Hansen

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/ ... tshell.pdf

In reality CO2 is not only continuing to increase, its rate of growth is increasing.

The reason is that global population and energy demands continue to increase, and about 85 percent of global energy is provided by fossil fuels.

A case has been made (Ice Melt, 2016) that the doubling time for ice sheet mass loss, assuming continued growth of fossil fuel emissions, may be as short as 10-20 years, based on evidence from the combination of paleoclimate data, modern observations, and ocean-atmosphere modeling.

In that case, multi-meter sea level rise would occur on a time scale of 50-150 years.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dissident » Tue 01 Jan 2019, 22:03:52

That is the problem. We are now also resulting in accelerating release of CO2 and CH4 from soil reservoirs and changes in ocean chemistry due to warming. It is not just economy associated output, it is also anthropogenic driven natural reservoir destabilization.

But there is a reason why economy associated CO2 emissions would increase: the decreasing quality of fossil fuels and changes in the global transport. Ships can burn bitumen mixed with water. They burn a lot of low grade fuel and even this low grade fuel has gotten more expensive since increasingly heavier grades and now bitumen were being diverted to service the gasoline and diesel cracking industries. Ships may as well have returned to burning coal. The globalist economic model has also increased substantially the volume of heavy fuel burning transport shipping over the last 30 years.

During the last 30 years the global volume of car and truck traffic has increased as well due to development. There is no development without increasing CO2 outputs. The global GDP is tightly linked to CO2 output.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 02 Jan 2019, 08:40:45

dissident wrote:That is the problem. ....
.........

During the last 30 years the global volume of car and truck traffic has increased as well due to development. There is no development without increasing CO2 outputs. The global GDP is tightly linked to CO2 output.

While it is true that for the last century and a half GDP and CO2 outputs have been linked there is no reason they have to be in the future.
Over the time frame the cheapest way to increase GDP was to further exploit cheap and abundant fossil fuels so that was the route we chose. Future productivity will come more from intellectual endeavors and the search for alternatives to fossil fuel use.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 02 Jan 2019, 10:27:36

vtsnowedin wrote:While it is true that for the last century and a half GDP and CO2 outputs have been linked there is no reason they have to be in the future.


Tell that to Donald (bring back coal!) Trump.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
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Nullschool

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 04 Jan 2019, 11:58:19

Just that Northern Mexico, Sonora freezes while them BC Kooteneys are melting in the middel of the winter, see nullschool surface wind/temp.
BC is above 50 degrees NL, minus 1 Celcius at 26 degrees NL, near the tropics, how unusual. RR ridge might be back.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 193,50.531
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Cog » Fri 04 Jan 2019, 13:18:40

There no EF-4 and above tornadoes reported in the USA in 2018.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 04 Jan 2019, 17:38:54

asg70 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:While it is true that for the last century and a half GDP and CO2 outputs have been linked there is no reason they have to be in the future.


Tell that to Donald (bring back coal!) Trump.
I put little or any stock to anything Trump says or does. Our economy and technology will advance in spite of anything he might do.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Fredrik » Sat 05 Jan 2019, 12:01:06

In Central/North Canada, or other boreal (coniferous forest) belt regions with nutrient-poor soils, one option is to practice slash-and-burn agriculture, where the ash functions as an effective fertilizer for a few years. In medieval times, temporary slash-and-burn sites often produced more crops than equal-size permanent fields fertilized with manure. Obviously this implies a highly mobile form of agriculture as you need new areas to burn until the depleted ones have regrown, as well as more C02 in the atmosphere...
"Only scarcity and effort make life worth living."
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 05 Jan 2019, 12:26:47

Fredrik wrote:In Central/North Canada, or other boreal (coniferous forest) belt regions with nutrient-poor soils, one option is to practice slash-and-burn agriculture, where the ash functions as an effective fertilizer for a few years. In medieval times, temporary slash-and-burn sites often produced more crops than equal-size permanent fields fertilized with manure. Obviously this implies a highly mobile form of agriculture as you need new areas to burn until the depleted ones have regrown, as well as more C02 in the atmosphere...

Considering the slow growth of Boreal forests you would be dealing with a fifty year long cycle meaning you could only have two percent of the land in crops in any given year.
Better to leave it as it is and harvest timber and game from it at sustainable levels.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 05 Jan 2019, 14:48:08

Newfoundland is about the size of PA. The aboriginal peoples are estimated to have totaled about 5,000. Kind of give you an idea of how thin hunter gather populations were. And back then it was just bursting with caribou and fish. True they had a very primative technology, there mobility was limited because they used certain trees or stumps with natural bowl like shapes to cook by dropping in hot stones.

Even today it’s only 500,000 while PA is about 13 million. But they import about 95% of their food so, if you look at how many are self sustained it’s not a lot more than then.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 04:58:42

Newfie wrote:Newfoundland is about the size of PA. The aboriginal peoples are estimated to have totaled about 5,000. Kind of give you an idea of how thin hunter gather populations were. And back then it was just bursting with caribou and fish. True they had a very primative technology, there mobility was limited because they used certain trees or stumps with natural bowl like shapes to cook by dropping in hot stones.

Even today it’s only 500,000 while PA is about 13 million. But they import about 95% of their food so, if you look at how many are self sustained it’s not a lot more than then.


We have been around the 'imported food' issue several times, in the past you have freely acknowledged that inclusion in Canada as a province destroyed the subsistence level agriculture on Newfoundland with cheap Canadian crops imported duty free. Other than that issue Newfoundland is not remarkably different than Iceland, they have very similar climates heavily influenced by the maritime effect and the populations were both mostly fish protein sourced until industrial fishing trawlers collapsed the sustainable catch. Iceland's population is about 350,000 on a slightly smaller usable land are due to central glaciers and active volcanoes.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 05:02:02

Fredrik wrote:In Central/North Canada, or other boreal (coniferous forest) belt regions with nutrient-poor soils, one option is to practice slash-and-burn agriculture, where the ash functions as an effective fertilizer for a few years. In medieval times, temporary slash-and-burn sites often produced more crops than equal-size permanent fields fertilized with manure. Obviously this implies a highly mobile form of agriculture as you need new areas to burn until the depleted ones have regrown, as well as more C02 in the atmosphere...


While it is true boreal forest can grow in regions with low soil fertility it is also true they can grow in areas of high soil fertility. Canada is not one blanket area of the same soil condition everywhere as we just went over on another thread a week or so ago. There is actually quite a lot of area with deep fertile soils that have not yet been exploited due to low population and high cost to develop raw woodlot into commercial farms.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 07:55:02

Similarly, experts have long tried to estimate the share of domestically produced food in the diet of Icelanders. Even though the experts appear to be somewhat divided on the matter, and are using different methods to arrive at their conclusion, the common consensus seems to be that Icelanders produce roughly half of their food (see for example, Halldórsson, Snæbjörnsson et al, 2010; Þórisson, 2011; Jóhannsson, 2011). However, this is – as has been argued above – hard to determine because it is difficult to assess how large a share of imports are used to enable the domestic production. It is, however, safe to infer that Icelanders are heavily dependent on constant and guaranteed access to foreign goods when it comes to food and food production.


https://ecpr.eu/Filestore/PaperProposal ... 68257b.pdf

So about half of 350,000. Or 175,000. Newfoundland could do better and they have in the past. It’s not gonna be made easier because now so many follow are living in population centers, principally St. John’s. And, it would seem, Iceland is producing a much higher percentage than Newfoundland to start with.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby derhundistlos » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 01:57:59

2018 GLOBAL TEMPS. 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD

In a preliminary report, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says global temperatures in 2018 are set to be the fourth highest on record.
Further, the WMO pointed out that the 20 warmest years on record have been in the past 22 years, and that "2018 is on course to be the 4th warmest year on record." This would mean that the past four years – "2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 – are also the four warmest years in the series".

The signs of impending ecological collapse are everywhere.

https://phys.org/news/2018-11-temperatu ... t.html#jCp
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 01:24:07

"... the past four years – 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 – are also the four warmest ..."

Yup, pretty well screwed.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 12:46:21

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46801108

Report: US 2018 CO2 emissions saw biggest spike in years

A new report has found that US carbon dioxide emissions rose by 3.4% in 2018 after three years of decline. The spike is the largest in eight years, according to Rhodium Group, an independent economic research firm.

The data shows the US is unlikely to meet its pledge to reduce emissions by 2025 under the Paris climate agreement. Under President Donald Trump, the US is set to leave the Paris accord in 2020 while his administration has ended many existing environmental protections.

While the Rhodium report notes these figures - pulled from US Energy Information Administration data and other sources - are estimates, The Global Carbon Project, another research group, also reported a similar increase in US emissions for 2018. And last year's spike comes despite a decline in coal-fired power plants; a record number were retired last year, according to the report.

The researchers note that 2019 will probably not repeat such an increase, but the findings underscore the country's challenges in reducing greenhouse gas output.

Many had hoped that carbon cutting actions at state or city level could in some way keep the US on track to meet its commitments made under the Paris climate agreement. The latest emissions data indicate that this is unlikely to happen.


Make America Heat Again! :lol: :( :twisted:
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 14:07:01

#ThanksTrump
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dissident » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 20:59:54

asg70 wrote:#ThanksTrump


BS. Thanks cheap oil prices.

The artificially low oil prices are going to make things much worse. But BAU depends on oil being cheap so all sorts of market manipulation will be deployed. This includes faking the "overstock" of gasoline in the US as if oil depends on some transient usage in the US. Show me year to year accumulation of unused diesel of gasoline and then maybe this indicator has some merit. But it clearly doesn't and the oil price is determined based on the speculators who use it.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 21:47:20

WTI is back up over $52/bl so the cheap oil price dip appears to be over.
Speculators aside the US consumes some seventeen million barrels of finished product a day which a big chunk of the world total. I would hardly call that transient.
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