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Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 06 Dec 2018, 17:01:18

onlooker wrote:I do not see anybody here on this site, quaking in fear.

For folks like you who are looking for doomer stuff to post much of the time and frequently posting various random articles from blogs, old economic stories, etc. portraying doom in our face -- I see that as the emotional equivalent of quaking in fear.

You disagree. Fine. Only you know how you feel, but if you aren't afraid, then a shade more toward rational reality (given how often your predictions are fairly quickly proven wrong) would seem to be a sign of a more healthy emotional attitude. Again, in my opinion.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Revi » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 10:52:49

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
onlooker wrote:I do not see anybody here on this site, quaking in fear.

For folks like you who are looking for doomer stuff to post much of the time and frequently posting various random articles from blogs, old economic stories, etc. portraying doom in our face -- I see that as the emotional equivalent of quaking in fear.

You disagree. Fine. Only you know how you feel, but if you aren't afraid, then a shade more toward rational reality (given how often your predictions are fairly quickly proven wrong) would seem to be a sign of a more healthy emotional attitude. Again, in my opinion.


I only post new doom. There seems to be plenty of it. No need to search the archives!
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 11:59:44

I'm not suer how posting doom, new or otherwise, really serves any purpose. It's kind of like when I read an MBS thread with all of the CAPS and !!!. All those posts really do is outline the obsessive/fetishistic inclinations of the poster. But out in the real world, BAU continues apace and we're all just going through the same motions we would had we never keyed onto limits to growth.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 12:10:11

I think the curve inversion is indicative of people not believing the veracity of the Fed to raise rates. We'll have to see what happens with the current month's Fed decision. They are probably going to raise rates.

People often talk about what they would do if something happened. If a burglar came into your house, though, you might not do what you told others you would. It's good to talk about what we would do, however, if it makes us truly think about it. That way, we at least have an idea of what our options are, should we find our reason has suddenly left us.

Rate rises mean that it costs more to invest with borrowed money. Many who invest borrow to do so. When there is so much confidence that rates won't go up as much as the consensus indicates, even some of the best hedge fund formulas may not be able to anticipate the correct level of demand. The situation becomes iterative rather than predictable according to a formula. At least according to one that presents demand linearly.

That's why, even when rates are higher, people will borrow money. They can trust that the volatility won't be so severe. When they know what rates will do, their only consideration is how much they can make from an investment given a certain level of demand. Right now, they are having to plot for various levels, and go in and out of positions quickly. Woe to those who get caught out completely!
Last edited by evilgenius on Fri 07 Dec 2018, 12:27:47, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 12:15:17

asg70 wrote:I'm not suer how posting doom, new or otherwise, really serves any purpose. It's kind of like when I read an MBS thread with all of the CAPS and !!!. All those posts really do is outline the obsessive/fetishistic inclinations of the poster. But out in the real world, BAU continues apace and we're all just going through the same motions we would had we never keyed onto limits to growth.

Could not disagree more with this post. First off, you and others characterizing data andd articles as doom is already making a subjective judgement on this information. Second, what about the fetish and obsessive nature of those who only wish to dispel any sense of foreboding or menace. Third, BAU is hardly happening in any uniform widespread way. In Europe millions are mobilizing in protest to the general conditions of life. Third world countries are descending ever more into anarchy. In this US, some of committing suicide, others are giving up looking for work and still others are joining the ranks of the homeless. That is not subjective interpretation, that is real world events occurring. So, if one wants to hide in a bubble of denial, fine you are free to do so.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 12:39:21

onlooker wrote:BAU is hardly happening in any uniform widespread way.


Has it ever?

There are some people who just have a hard time coping with the fact the world isn't a utopia. But this site was built on the backs of a very specific narrative. End of suburbia, mutant zombie bikers, cannibalism. All of that a function of the end of oil. We're not living that sort of reality--nowhere near that and no amount of linking to Zerohedge will change that.

There are better avenues for bleeding hearts to try to ameliorate the world being a shithole. Amnesty International, Doctors without Borders, UNICEF, etc... But I see this continued attempt to sort of regurgitate bad news and get people to react emotionally to be just veiled attention-trolling.

It's like some people busk in the subway to be seen and other people link to Zerohedge.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 16:46:42

Revi wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
onlooker wrote:I do not see anybody here on this site, quaking in fear.

For folks like you who are looking for doomer stuff to post much of the time and frequently posting various random articles from blogs, old economic stories, etc. portraying doom in our face -- I see that as the emotional equivalent of quaking in fear.

You disagree. Fine. Only you know how you feel, but if you aren't afraid, then a shade more toward rational reality (given how often your predictions are fairly quickly proven wrong) would seem to be a sign of a more healthy emotional attitude. Again, in my opinion.


I only post new doom. There seems to be plenty of it. No need to search the archives!

And I have noticed that over time, you're not posting doom stories all the time, and don't seem to be making things up, stretching the point, etc.

So to me, THAT sort of reporting the "concerning" side of news is a COMPLETELY different thing than being a "fast collapse soon" preaching Cassandra.

To me, that's a completely legit glass half empty outlook, vs. the glass half full outlook of the cornie.

I hope I haven't appeared to conflate the "manufactured fast crash" Cassandra crowd with the "there's lots of concerning real news out there" crowd, because to me -- they're VERY different.

That doesn't mean I'll agree with the negative viewpoint on every piece of legit negative news, but I don't agree with a lot of the "all cornie all the time" news either.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 17:58:25

asg70 wrote:I'm not suer how posting doom, new or otherwise, really serves any purpose. It's kind of like when I read an MBS thread with all of the CAPS and !!!. All those posts really do is outline the obsessive/fetishistic inclinations of the poster. But out in the real world, BAU continues apace and we're all just going through the same motions we would had we never keyed onto limits to growth.


Your view of "doom never gonna happen" is not the view of many intelligent people in the world. It has happened before - matter of fact, ALL previous empires have crashed and dissolved. BAU has been proven by history to be a temporary condition. The only question is---when.

And careful, a signature can look "obsessive and fetishistic" too. Especially in red text.
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 18:08:39

Hawkcreek wrote:Your view of "doom never gonna happen"


Strawman. I don't say "doom never gonna happen". Just not gonna happen yet, and AGW more likely than PO to be the creeping problem.

Hawkcreek wrote:ALL previous empires have crashed and dissolved.


Using a loaded term like "empire" suggests a political bent with an interest in seeing the established order fall. That tends to be the #1 source of bias among doomers. They hate something therefore they want it to fall therefore they anticipate it falling long before it does.

Hawkcreek wrote:And careful, a signature can look "obsessive and fetishistic" too. Especially in red text.


My sig goes blank once the ban hammer comes down on those two.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now. (11/21/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Cog » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 18:37:02

There was once a Babylon, Roman, And British empire. They collapsed but the people are still there now living a somewhat modern existence. The doomers somehow believe that an empire collapsing means everyone goes to their houses and dies. That isn't how it works.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 18:39:20

asg70 wrote:My sig goes blank once the ban hammer comes down on those two.

"Oh please moderators, make the bad people go away. They make me cry so bad . . . . waaaaaa"

Still afraid to take a gentlemanly bet, always ready to insult, cry and wail for moderator assistance. Well its time to man/girl/tranny-up Asgy, and put your pie hole where your mouth is . . . no one will hold your hand.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 19:18:01

asg70 wrote:Strawman. I don't say "doom never gonna happen". Just not gonna happen yet, and AGW more likely than PO to be the creeping problem.

Using a loaded term like "empire" suggests a political bent with an interest in seeing the established order fall. That tends to be the #1 source of bias among doomers. They hate something therefore they want it to fall therefore they anticipate it falling long before it does.


"Just not gonna happen yet", makes it seem that you are just quibbling over timing. That sounds like doomer talk to me.
I didn't mean to suggest anything with the word empire. I constantly hear that in reference to the USA, and have heard some pretty good arguments that seem to show that the requirements for the title are fully vested by the USA. If you think my usage of the word is totally incorrect, please explain.
And I'm not a doomer, I'm an optimistic prepper, who believes in insurance. :-D
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 19:28:02

Cog wrote:There was once a Babylon, Roman, And British empire. They collapsed but the people are still there now living a somewhat modern existence. The doomers somehow believe that an empire collapsing means everyone goes to their houses and dies. That isn't how it works.

Yes, that only happens when the brain-eating zombies start roaming in hordes. In a regular - PG rated empire collapse, only a substantial percentage of the people die, or - even worse - have to start living in their cars. And the anchor stores in the mall close.
I'm ok unless Starbucks shuts down. Life without quad Americano's wouln't be worth living, I admit.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 08 Dec 2018, 22:46:28

Cog wrote:There was once a Babylon, Roman, And British empire. They collapsed but the people are still there now living a somewhat modern existence. The doomers somehow believe that an empire collapsing means everyone goes to their houses and dies. That isn't how it works.




Who is going to feed 350 million fatasses when McDonald’s is gone and the grocery stores are empty?
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 08 Dec 2018, 23:58:16

Soylent corporation of course.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Cog » Sun 09 Dec 2018, 00:03:30

Armageddon wrote:
Cog wrote:There was once a Babylon, Roman, And British empire. They collapsed but the people are still there now living a somewhat modern existence. The doomers somehow believe that an empire collapsing means everyone goes to their houses and dies. That isn't how it works.




Who is going to feed 350 million fatasses when McDonald’s is gone and the grocery stores are empty?


Thin people don't need as much food. But why should grocery stores and McDonald's disappear? Is there some earth-shaking doomer news you guys are holding out on me? :lol:
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Revi » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 09:51:39

The market is already down about 41 points. It seems like the bloom is off the rose with US China relations. I thought we had an agreement last Tuesday, but it turned to crap with the Huawei CFO debacle.

It looks like it's going to be a wild ride the next couple of months.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/10/china-d ... i-cfo.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Cog » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 10:40:53

Good time to pick some bargains out there.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Revi » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 15:05:04

Cog wrote:Good time to pick some bargains out there.

Never try to catch a falling knife!
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 15:48:43

Armageddon wrote:Who is going to feed 350 million fatasses when McDonald’s is gone and the grocery stores are empty?

And how is all the food suddenly, magically going to disappear? In the real world, things change and people adapt.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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