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Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 23 Nov 2018, 18:22:09

aspera wrote:Asg70 and Cog: Despite your reasoned responses I still contend that making bets with individuals on an internet site that hides our true identity is ridiculous. Claiming that those bets are or are not paid off cannot be independently verified, and claims one way or another often amount to hearsay.

I make bets with people I can shake hands with. And in some situations, even face-to-face, we make "bets" that serve to indicate how strongly we feel about something, with no expectation that we'll actually exchange coin. When somebody says to you, "I'll bet you anything that ..." do you actually treat it like all other bets?

And to think that betting is an instrument for controlling human behavior on an internet site seems astonishingly hopeful about managing human behavior. (and, as a rule, this site seems to be less-than-hopeful about controlling the behavior of others)

My general notion is that it's healthier for the people upset by an unpaid "bet" to just stop clinging to that fact (healthier for them: that's the basis of the "let go or be dragged" quote). And it's healthier for the rest of us in dialog here to have the clutter of responses about past behaviors reduced. Geez, I've said and done things I wish I hadn't. But I think I still have stuff to contribute now and then. I'm glad my entire history of relationships of all kinds doesn't enter into every single future post/comment/whatever. I try to do the same to others.

I was raised to consider what people said and wrote now, and not to prejudge that statement. I try to be influenced by the ideas, concepts and facts that you guys present, now, and not to prejudge (too much anyway). Even someone who folks claim didn't pay off a "bet" may have things that are worth reading.

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" - Keynes.
We are not merely talking about someone spouting BS on the internet. We are talking about someone using this forum to peddle snake oil. First an erroneous oil model. Then dubious oil ETFs. We should let other forum members know that not only has this snake oil peddler gotten past calls wrong, but he has zero integrity as well.

snakeoil wrote:Sat Feb 11, 2017 - As we have previously stated we expect a major crisis to appear in the market later on in 2017. That will result from the ongoing inventory build that has now extended itself into the finished products sector. We are presently setting up a trading desk to take advantage of this upcoming situation by employing the trading of options on 3x ETFs. This method will allow anyone with a trading account to participate for as little as a couple hundred dollars. Once our positions are in place (so we aren't bidding against our own clients) we will be sending emails explaining the transactions used to our present clients. If you have acquired an unregistered copy of our report you may register it by sending an email to "contact" at our site.

Feb 14, 2017 - We've been making money on this Model for four years. We sincerely hope that it stays completely inaccurate.

By the way, we are presently going to be playing put options on 3x ETFs. It gives about 7 to 1 leverage. Since they are six month options they give good lead time. The down pressure from the Max Affordability function should trigger the market about the next OPEC meeting, which is in May. We will probably take the position about the 1st of April. Let's hope that it doesn't crash before then. If it moves to $50 before then we will assume that who ever is keeping it propped up has finally given up, and jump in.
The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 7
The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Code: Select all
Nov 03, 2018
Fund                               YTD Return
ProShares Daily 3x Inverse Crude   -51.01%
United States 3x Short Oil Fund    -52.47%
VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude    -74.56%
EROI < 1:5 => collaps of modern civilisation!

Or if they moved in on April 1st 2017 on Proshares they would be sitting on even steeper losses if they held onto it until now.

Some on this forum follow this guy around like he is some kind of guru. Yet had they followed his advice they would be sitting on some steep losses right about now. Before giving a dime to this guy I think everyone should know he has:
I. no integrity
II. horrible track record with predictions
III. worse track record with investments

It might save them some alot of money and stress.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby aspera » Fri 23 Nov 2018, 19:23:15

Asg70 claimed:
aspera wrote:
…the world has decades of further growth in production before flattening out into a plateau—perhaps sometime around midcentury

Asg70: perhaps read my post a bit more closely. I didn't write that. I cited another person's text.

Focusing on what folks wrote in the past seems to consume some folks here. I'm convinced that they've got the wrong end of "Let go or be dragged."

Planning for a transition takes a while. Maybe decades? That means planning for midcentury starts about now. Besides, as I've written, I'm working with my grandkids on all this. So, I'm a lot more interested in what folks have to say about the decades ahead than I am on whether someone got a prediction wrong 13 years ago. Or made a "bet" on the internet (geez).

Maybe some of them tried to understand their mistakes with more analysis; maybe others tried to cover their failed predictions with nonsense. How human of them both. If I was writing a history of peak oil in the early twenty-first century, then I might care. I'm not, so I don't.

I'm not driven by the past. I'm prospecting the future.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 23 Nov 2018, 19:35:41

Fine. Forget what he said in the past. Take a look at what he is posting right now over in the EROEI thread. He screwed up his math again(par for the course for him). But instead of admitting his mistake he doubles down to defend his error over and over again. Then after half a dozen posters pointed out his error, he says he was "joking". Seriously? I would not be planning my grand kids future on what this guy says if I were you.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby aspera » Fri 23 Nov 2018, 19:36:45

kublikhan wrote; We are not merely talking about someone spouting BS on the internet. We are talking about someone using this forum to peddle snake oil.

You're going to have to help me here. All this was on the internet (?). So how exactly is "spouting BS" different from peddling "snake oil?" Was money exchanged? Was a PayPal account setup to take investments? Are there lawsuits pending? Is some state's Attorneys' General doing an investigation?

If not, then what we have is someone making a claim. Dubious from the get-go and/or proven wrong by later data, I take it. Unwilling to own up to the failure? And still contributing posts?

Geez, that sounds like 75% of the internet, and a good portion of the conversations I've had at job sites. There are always some of those claims floating around. I've learned to let it go (for my own good and that of those I'm interacting with).
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby aspera » Fri 23 Nov 2018, 19:43:54

kublikhan wrote: Fine. Forget what he said in the past. Take a look at what he is posting right now over in the EROEI thread. He screwed up his math again(par for the course for him). But instead of admitting his mistake he doubles down to defend his error over and over again. Then after half a dozen posters pointed out his error, he says he was "joking". Seriously? I would not be planning my grand kids future on what this guy says if I were you.

Fair enough. I do get what you are saying and the specific topic. But far too much bandwidth is spent on this. Just let it go. (And here I am now taking my own advice).

And, no worries, I'd never plan any of my or my grandkids future on what gets said on the internet, neither what any one person says, or even what a single site suggests. Coherence + convergence = a good hypothesis worth thinking about (always in the "cold hard light of data").
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Cog » Fri 23 Nov 2018, 19:46:27

Better buy gold. SRSrroccoreport says we are going to crash any day now. For a small sum of $50 you can find out how to make millions off this deal.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 24 Nov 2018, 00:09:44

aspera wrote:Focusing on what folks wrote in the past seems to consume some folks here.


It would make sense to analyze the past when it comes to predictions. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. The ADD aspect of the internet combined with the predeliction towards doomy scenarios on the part of doomers give people like Short multiple chances to stick foot in mouth.

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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 24 Nov 2018, 20:38:22

I am not Shortonoil asgy. I am pstarr. We are two different people!

This one, the pstarr person is calling you out: you are a chickensh%t side liner who has been trolling your betters for a decade, without an ounce of gumption anywhere.

Take my $1,000 bet or STFU
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby aspera » Sat 24 Nov 2018, 21:01:19

Asg70 wrote: It would make sense to analyze the past when it comes to predictions.

Sure, of course. Good idea that. In fact, so obvious as to grant you today's award: Image

But to be consumed by that past? To constantly re-live that past? Not so much. It's a sure sign that your "use by" date is approaching.

Smil gives a harsh yet cogent warning about predictions based only on historic data. Anyone who finds that their sole way of viewing the future is through forecasting, extrapolations, etc. should read his Chapter 3, twice, slowly. That chapter is a hoot since it skewers so many big names and arrogant forecasts while showing why such analysis is limited.

He gives alternatives (text of quote from review cited below):
[He] argues that ‘only two kinds of looking ahead are worthwhile, indeed essential’ (p.121). The first is contingency scenarios ‘preparing us for foreseeable outcomes that may deviate substantially, even catastrophically, from standard trend expectations or from consensus visions’ (p 121). The second ‘encompasses no-regret normative scenarios that should be prepared to guide our long term paths towards the reconciliation of human aspirations with biospheric imperatives’ (p.122).

Smil, V. (2003). Against forecasting. Chapter 3 in Energy at the crossroads: Global perspectives and Uncertainties. MIT Press. Review at: http://vaclavsmil.com/wp-content/uploads/docs/smil-bookreview-energy-crossroad-20050000-enviropolitics.pdf
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 25 Nov 2018, 02:10:59

Rather than argue about Peak Oil history that is at least a decade old (constant references to 2005-2008), could we get back to the present day and back to the Stock Market?

There have been a lot of ups and downs, but currently the Dow is at a 3 month low, although it has a way to fall to get to a one year low. However, it is still massively up on 5 years.

It will be interesting to see how the markets respond to the "Black Friday" sales and how it might affect sales over the Christmas period.

The first post was about speculation that rules about stock buy-backs would change crashing the market. That did not happen, and in typical deceptive fashion the investment advisor reissued the statement but with new dates! A Crash has not yet happened, but the market does seem to be under pressure. However, the volatility of the last months seems to indicate that there are a lot of conflicting views out in the market which are being backed with a lot of money.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 25 Nov 2018, 02:52:12

onlooker wrote:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-10/two-decade-break-in-stock-bond-link-signals-pain-for-markets

Everything That Goes Wrong When Stocks and Bonds Fall Together

Bonds and equities are doing something they don’t usually do -- fall in unison -- with the latest move driving their normal inverse correlation to the weakest levels of the past two decades. The relationship has come completely apart only three times in that period, and each episode was followed by an equity market slump, including the last one, in 2014.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 25 Nov 2018, 03:09:03

Actually Aspera, it is not about being consumed by the past. Contrarians on this site like to utilize failed predictions as evidence that everything is marching along just fine. And an overwhelming amount of info suggests it is not. I remind my fellow posters that the intent of any Economy is to provide for the well being of people. But if that same Economy is undermining the life support systems of this planet and/or attaining undesirable outcomes for people, it is in fact an ill advised Economy. As much as some here would like to pretend that the Economy is separate from the Environment, quite the contrary it is utterly dependent on it. So for those who do wish to get a glimpse of possible futures, we must try to keep that in mind.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby aspera » Sun 25 Nov 2018, 11:56:07

Point taken on uses of the past.
Onlooker wrote: As much as some here would like to pretend that the Economy is separate from the Environment, quite the contrary it is utterly dependent on it.

“The economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment, not the reverse.” -Herman E. Daly
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 25 Nov 2018, 23:09:24

onlooker wrote:Contrarians on this site like to utilize failed predictions as evidence that everything is marching along just fine.


And the strawman cavalcade continues. Contrarians do not say "everything is marching along just fine". Contrarians say that the ups and downs of the market are all part of BAU. It's a lesson peakers should have learned in 2008.

onlooker wrote:..the intent of any Economy is to provide for the well being of people. But if that same Economy is undermining the life support systems of this planet and/or attaining undesirable outcomes for people


I agree with that in general, but what you're describing is not a peak oil per se. It's politics.

Debt is a problem. The biosphere is a problem. Having enough oil supplies to power civilization? Not yet a problem.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Revi » Thu 06 Dec 2018, 11:15:42

Down 800 on Tuesday, and over 600 so far this morning. That's over 6% so far this week. What's going on? Is this the big drop? Where's the Santa rally? What's up with the market?

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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Cog » Thu 06 Dec 2018, 11:29:05

Great deal of uncertainty with oil prices and US trade negotiations with China. It probably didn't help we had Canada arrest a Chinese Telecom CFO for sanctions busting. The Chinese aren't real happy about that. The Dow has been lower in March, May, and June of this year, than it is right now, but people forget that. From June to October this year the DOW went up 2500 points.

If you USA doomers think we have it bad here, you need to check out the Asian exchanges since January.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 06 Dec 2018, 14:04:47

Revi, there seems to be a number of factors. The BBC reporting on Tuesday's fall. By itself Tuesday's fall in stock markets does not signify much, but behind the scenes there seems to be growing fear.

BBC wrote:Analysts said the trigger for Tuesday's falls appeared to be concerns about the "yield curve", which measures the difference between the interest rates paid on short-term and long-term US bonds.

The gap has narrowed in recent months, as investors demand higher rates of return on short-term debt in anticipation of inflation and rate rises.

At the same time, they are accepting relatively lower rates on long-term debt, in anticipation of limited inflation and slower economic growth over the next decade.

The difference between the rates on three-year and five-year debt disappeared on Monday.

The move fuelled concerns on Tuesday that the same might happen to the gap between two-year and 10-year bonds - a more significant indicator.

Historically, when short-term rates rise above longer rates, it signals a recession may be on the horizon.



https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46445913

There continue to be strong ups and downs, so we need to wait more than two days to see how this settles, and like Peak Oil it will only be clear in the rear-view mirror.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Cog » Thu 06 Dec 2018, 15:11:06

Bond traders always think they have a big impact on equity traders. LOL As usual the BBC doesn't have a clue.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 06 Dec 2018, 16:21:49

EdwinSm wrote:Revi, there seems to be a number of factors. The BBC reporting on Tuesday's fall. By itself Tuesday's fall in stock markets does not signify much, but behind the scenes there seems to be growing fear.

There certainly is growing nervousness. But that comes with seriously increased volatility on the downside every single time. The bulls love gains, but HATE losses. (Loss aversion irrationality).

It's perfectly normal market behavior, and happens pretty much every big cycle, over time.

This is why I'm happiest only being roughly 50% in a highly diversified stock portfolio over time. When things get like this, I sleep just fine. If I were, say, 90% in stocks, periods like the 2008-2009 would just be too painful.

But everyone has to decide how they want to balance risk and opportunity over time for themselves.

But for the constant Cassandras, aside from perhaps having lovely doomsteads to play with and fantasize surviving the zombie hordes (silly as that may be, but hey, I'm sure my hobbies like chess are boring to many), I just don't see the upside of constantly quaking in fear instead of prudently investing during their adult lives -- just because non-cash investments are volatile over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 06 Dec 2018, 16:55:35

But for the constant Cassandras, aside from perhaps having lovely doomsteads to play with and fantasize surviving the zombie hordes (silly as that may be, but hey, I'm sure my hobbies like chess are boring to many), I just don't see the upside of constantly quaking in fear instead of prudently investing during their adult lives -- just because non-cash investments are volatile over time.

I do not see anybody here on this site, quaking in fear. I see different levels of urgency and different strategies. I also note that posters like Ibon and Ghung, have said that they actually prefer their lifestyle to disengage from civlization. Not only that, for some after the initial investment, they have drastically cut expenses it seems. Surely, that is a prudent strategy whether a full on Collapse happens or not. So, while the two extremes of apathy and panic are not good, I do feel all of you on this site are balanced between those two extremes. Which is good.
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