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Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 21 Nov 2018, 14:30:00

(Face palm)

OK, I'll try to spell it out for you and try not to use too many polysyllabic words :) :

In terms of relative anomalies, the continent ("North east USA" as you put it) is anomalously cold. So that settles the Cold Continent part. On the other hand, the Arctic, again as you point out, is NOT anomalously cold, it less anomalously cold relative to the continent.

If you can't follow that... I give up.

In any case, the WACCy theory/observation is not that this is a permanent, constant condition. Only that we have these differences in anomalies more often than we have had in the past.

But please, go ahead and keep up your attempts at cherry picking...maybe you will eventually hit on something that actually supports whatever delusion you seem to be promoting... :)
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 21 Nov 2018, 14:43:12

dohboi wrote:(Face palm)

OK, I'll try to spell it out for you and try not to use too many polysyllabic words :) :

In terms of relative anomalies, the continent ("North east USA" as you put it) is anomalously cold. So that settles the Cold Continent part. On the other hand, the Arctic, again as you point out, is NOT anomalously cold, it less anomalously cold relative to the continent.

Don't you mean anomalously WARM?
If you can't follow that... I give up.

In any case, the WACCy theory/observation is not that this is a permanent, constant condition. Only that we have these differences in anomalies more often than we have had in the past.

But please, go ahead and keep up your attempts at cherry picking...maybe you will eventually hit on something that actually supports whatever delusion you seem to be promoting... :)
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 21 Nov 2018, 21:42:06

I said what I intended. If you can't follow straightforward English...not my problem
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 22 Nov 2018, 08:15:28

dohboi wrote:I said what I intended. If you can't follow straightforward English...not my problem
Then you have it A$$ backwards you fool.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 22 Nov 2018, 09:01:01

The Arctic is less anomalously cold relative to the continent. If you want to replace 'less anomalously cold' with 'more anomalously warm,' knock yourself out. But that would be less precise than my statement of it.

(Maybe work a bit harder on your reading skills before accusing others of linguistic foolishness? :) )
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 22 Nov 2018, 12:15:06

dohboi wrote:The Arctic is less anomalously cold relative to the continent. If you want to replace 'less anomalously cold' with 'more anomalously warm,' knock yourself out. But that would be less precise than my statement of it.

(Maybe work a bit harder on your reading skills before accusing others of linguistic foolishness? :) )

"less anomalously cold" equals Normal.
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Spitsbergen.....

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 02 Dec 2018, 15:41:11

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spitsbergen

https://www.spitsbergen-svalbard.com/sp ... d-ice.html
The drift ice distribution in Spitsbergen is controlled by two oceanic currents: the West Spitsbergen Current keeps the west coast and, to a varying degree, the north coast ice free, while the colder East Spitsbergen Current brings a lot of drift ice from the Arctic Ocean to eastern Svalbard. The central west coast (Kongsfjord, Isfjord) is mostly accessible for smaller ships more or less year round; the inner branches are usually frozen, though. On the north coast, it chances from year to year. In some years, the whole north coast to Amsterdamøya in the west is blocked with dense drift ice. In other years, Sjuøyane or even Kvitøya are accessible in late June or early July. On the contrary, in 2014 the eastern part of Nordaustland did not become ice free at all.

Despite of these strong fluctuations from year to year, the current long-term trend is quite clear. It is now much easier to reach remote islands in northeastern Svalbard that used to be in ice most of the time as recently as 20 or even 10 years ago. In 2000, tour operators did not schedule circumnavigations earlier than mid July. By now, it is common to attempt circumnavigations in early July or even to start in late June, and chances for success are not that bad at all. Scientific data support this experience. Both the spatial and seasonal extent of sea ice and the average ice thickness have decreased. Whereas ice floes used to be 1.20 m thick in the Spitsbergen area in the past, they are rather near 0.80 m now.


Fjord ice does not count as drift ice. It is also called fast ice, as it is in firm connection with nearby shores inside a fjord or small bay. It does not move horizontally at all, but it does move vertically with the tides, resulting in tidal cracks where the ice meets the shore. On calm days, you may here the ice moving near the tidal cracks. Fjord ice is relatively flat. The smaller fjords in Spitsbergen’s west coast fjord systems used to freeze over regularly in the past, but are less reliable now. Adventfjord has not been firmly frozen for several years now (late 2014), and Tempelfjord did not have a fast ice cover as good as it used to be in the past in 2014. The loss of fjord ice is bad for wildlife such as Ringed seals, which need ice to give birth and to rest.
The big Isfjord used to freeze over quite frequently in the early 20th century, but it has never been frozen every year in historical times. It is known to have frozen over after 2000, but not in recent years.


That were updated up to 2015, now I bet the whole place stays more or less free from the ice pack, surely the south with those two hot spots near that will prevent sea ice from building up.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 397,74.640
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 614,76.088
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Ice growth through the month was strong in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, but extent remained below average in these areas at the end of the month. A large area of open water remained in the Laptev Sea, which is unprecedented in the satellite record at the end of October. Especially prominent was the lack of ice growth on the Atlantic side of the Arctic in the Barents Sea, and in some regions, a slight contraction of the ice edge further north (Figure 1b). As a result, extent is presently far below average in this area, and is the primary reason why October extent for the Arctic as a whole is third lowest on record.


https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

In the North Pacific, the flow of warmer water is clearly visible (see image right, bottom left circle). In the North Atlantic, huge amounts of heat are moving into the Arctic Ocean (top right circle). At some spots, heat that is traveling underneath the sea surface comes to the surface (top left circle).



https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/o ... 123,77.789

15 degrees C. SSTA!!! Yesterday, or is it real time as in today? Anyway, Over the edge.

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/1 ... -2021.html

The image on the right shows sea surface temperature anomalies as high as as 7.1°C (or 12.7°F) in the Bering Strait (at the green circle) on October 15, 2018.
Warmer oceans result in stronger cyclones. The next image on the right shows that Typhoon Yutu was forecast to reach an Instantaneous Wind Power Density (WPD) as high as 207647 W/m² at 850 mb and wind speeds as high as 268 km/h or 167 mph at the green circle, i.e. at 18.50° N, 124.00° E, on October 30, 2018, 00:00 UTC.
Cyclones can suddenly push huge amounts of salty warm water into the Arctic Ocean.
On November 12, 2018, there was a sudden influx of warm water from the Atlantic Ocean near Svalbard and sea surface temperature was as high as 20.4°C or 68.7°F, i.e. 17.4°C or 31.4°F warmer than in 1981-2011.
As the image on the right also illustrates, warm salty water from the Atlantic Ocean is increasingly invading the Arctic Ocean.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 03 Dec 2018, 03:09:04

As the image on the right also illustrates, warm salty water from the Atlantic Ocean is increasingly invading the Arctic Ocean.

Doesn't that contradict all those articles saying the ocean current circulation in the North Atlantic is the weakest it has been in centuries?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 03 Dec 2018, 13:01:01

Good question. As I understand it, more than one thing are going on at the same time...that is, surprise, surprise, shifts going on in the ocean are more complex than just one factor.

"...on the Atlantic flank of the Arctic, another recent report concludes that the Arctic Ocean’s cold layering system that blocks Atlantic inflows is breaking down, allowing a deluge of warmer, denser water to flood into the Arctic Basin"

So even if the AMOC is weaker, there is still a lot of water in the North Atlantic that is warmer and saltier than the surface 'lens' that has generally prevailed in the Arctic. So when the layering that has kept this water out breaks down, it is still able to flow north into the Arctic from the North Atlantic. The same thing is happening with waters from the Pacific.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/alien-wa ... ctic-ocean
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Mon 03 Dec 2018, 13:05:51

Different currents. The Norwegian Current is fed by the North Atlantic Drift (which is wind driven) and the Irminger current.
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Arctic Warm Wedge

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 07:07:05

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 030,80.190

There it is, the AWW, the famous Arctic double double U, makes it into A double you square....hihi.
The big split is already happening, juicy moist warm air from down south, even Saharan/club med air moving up North to Santa Claus.
The Brooks range will get that lake effect from the arctic ocean sometime in the future when the ice is gone in the fall.
This is a huge shift, the last domino before the SHTF, the beaufort gyre will reverse.
Only minus 9 at the remotest place on the NH, the mushy brim that covers the remotest location on the arctic ocean.
There is an expedition of a Dutch woman to reach it, I hope she takes a chopper, to walk there is not a bright idea, best to get a floating tent set up on the ice, just in case.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/ ... 9df9bb8eb5

And of course, the Arctic Ocean has its own Pole of Inaccessibility, which is located at 167.4357° W and 83.1527° N. The distance to the nearest land (which includes islands) is equal to 1050.652 km. These have been determined using the geodesic approach. The Pole of Inaccessibility calculated using the Euclidean method is separated by exactly 1 km from the geodesic one. The distance from the Arctic Pole of Inaccessibility to the North Pole is 765.431 km.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/ ... 9df9bb8eb5

THe POI is right above the deepest part of the arctic ocean.


Good news as well:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

The Arctic freeze-up season is well underway, with ice extent increasing faster than average for most regions in November. Exceptions were in the Chukchi and Barents Seas, where the ice has been slow to form. November snow cover over North America was the most extensive since 1966.


https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the ... world.html

Life on the Edge:

The four northernmost towns are all located in Norway, the farthest of which is Ny-Ålesund in Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago. Founded in 1917 as a coal mining town, today, it serves as a research base for around 35 people. Kings Bay, an office of the Norwegian Ministry of Trade and Industry, owns and operates the settlement making sure the infrastructure functions correctly. Most of the researchers focus on environmental and atmospheric issues. Their lives are confined to the settlement because roads only exist within its borders; their only option is to use snowmobiles.


http://www.bernicenotenboom.com/
http://www.bernicenotenboom.com/blog/

Bernice is hunting down climate change, nice, very nice Bernice, way to go on thin ice, trying to find a suited linky in our mothertogue here on the net.

https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernice_Notenboom

http://www.bernicenotenboom.com/arctic-march/

Cannot find her wiki page, just the Dutch one, the Dutch treat or threath…

She made docu Tipping Points for the Weather Channel and Discovery, I bet Doh would love to check her out!

She did try to walk that thin line on ice:

In the spring of 2014 Eric Philips, Martin Hartley and myself attempted to ski from The North Pole to Canada. Our mission was to show the world how beautiful and yet how fragile the Arctic is. The expedition comes to a halt on day 40, after skiing 660 km, only 188 kilometers from reaching the Canadian Coast.
During the 40 days on ice we documented our journey on film through the bone-chilling winds and brutal cold starting at The North Pole, the constantly moving ice floes fracturing into pans of open water, the break-up and melt of the ice further south to emotional conversations in the tent.
Plagued by extraordinary storms engulfing the entire Arctic from Siberia to Alaska, with wind speeds up to 95 km/hr., extreme snowfall and zero visibility, they further experienced a setback of unprecedented drift of 175 km to the East.
On May 13th exhausted and defeated by the Arctic Experience, the team gets picked up from the ice, as continuing the expedition would have been life-threatening. Our efforts of this expedition are not in vain. Outstanding photographs, film and stories of the team document the fate of an environment which future is at stake.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... qkpJI32nUI

She speaks English, thank god for you all….
very cool chick with balls the size of you know what, Texas?
Our royalty is keeping an eye on her, they want to know when it is time to run for those hills.


BERNICE NOTENBOOM - living deliberately will lead the future
Bernice Notenboom is a climate journalist and professional adventurer. But that's not all. Notenboom is more than just a fervent traveler who is passionate about fighting climate change. Her extreme expeditions are blazing a path by placing focus on the tipping points of the worldís climate.
She became the first woman on skis to reach the North and South Poles, as well as the Siberian Pole of Coldí and traversed Greenland's ice cap in just one year. She climbed to the top of Mount Everest and kayaked 1000 km on the Niger River in the Sahara. She is a climate chaser, traveling to the world's extreme regions, bringing global warming to the attention of world political leaders and business executives.


That were an oldy from 2011, but here the latest on twitter, Spitsbergen2:

https://twitter.com/hashtag/spitsbergen2?src=hash

Dutch bankers and insurers make plans after #Spitsbergen2 expedition: commitment to simpler/faster financing for #sustainable housing via @NOS #climatechange #2degrees
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Them Dutch on the arctic

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 09:19:40

http://www.2dgrees.com/spitsbergen-2-0-english/

Spitsbergen 2.0
23 april – 27 april 2018
Shackleton demonstrated during his expedition to unknown Antarctica courage, resilience, bravery and above all brilliant leadership. Shackleton’s journey is a perfect metaphor for a new sustainable society requiring personal leadership.
Spitsbergen 2.0
expedition for the financial world to Spitsbergen
To experience climate change firsthand, polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom organizes for the second time an exclusive expedition to Spitsbergen in the North Pole Region.
Aboard the sailing vessel Rembrandt van Rijn we visit fjords, glaciers and icecaps and see with our own eyes the dire consequences of the melting Arctic. We will sail between Blomstrand island and the mainland with was still connected at the beginning of this century. We snowshoe along the 14e July glacier which retreats more than 100 meters every year. In Kongsfjord we assist ESA conducting simple arctic science to understand the consequences of losing our polar ice cap.
Spitsbergen 2.0 is an urgent call for action to show and demonstrate the fragile yet beautiful environment of our planet and what we are about to lose forever…


This woman has nuts the size of a tree, her last name Notenboom translates into tree of nuts 8)

https://twitter.com/hashtag/CryoSat?src=hash

Very accurate data on the thickness of sea ice....

Merged #Cryosat #SMOS #SeaIce thickness in the #Arctic during last five weeks.


Novaya Zemlya mass loss increased by 40% during '10-'16 respect to '03-'09 marine-terminating glaciers thinning faster #CryoSat #ICESat GRACE @esa_cryosat @NASA_ICE http://goo.gl/ynES7h @eciraci84
Tweet vertalen

https://twitter.com/kryosat

The Earth and Mission Science Division (MSD) supports the preparation, development and operations of research and operational missions within the Earth Observation Programmes Directorate. The Division is responsible for ensuring the application of scientific and other user community requirements in all phases of the development of Earth Observation missions, from precursor studies through to in-orbit satellite operations, and for ensuring coherence throughout with the objectives expressed in the mission requirements documents, including the management of mission-, instrument-specific, or ad-hoc advisory structures (as required).
In support of the preparation of new mission concepts, or development and operations of each ESA approved Earth Observation mission, the Division conceives, initiates and conducts supporting scientific studies (in house and external) to ensure that the mission is "fit for purpose". In addition, the Division organises, coordinates and executes Campaigns for the purpose of acquiring airborne, balloon-borne, or in-situ data. Campaigns are specifically designed in support of technology or mission concept development, mission development, data simulation, and instrument calibration or product validation purposes. Campaign data are distributed publicly.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mission ... e_Division

https://view.ingwb.com/the-reality-of-climate-change

Bernice Notenboom
is an explorer, documentary maker, and climate journalist. She is one of the only women to ski to the North and South Pole and has led three expeditions to Spitsbergen in Norway’s Svalbard archipelago with CEOs, financiers and entrepreneurs to investigate the consequences of climate change. Her latest book, Arctica, is published in November.
Why is it important for corporate and financial sector leaders to see the impact of climate change themselves?
Travelling to Spitsbergen awakens people senses that are usually dormant. It triggers sensations and emotions that they don’t experience on a day-to-day basis. The landscape is stunningly beautiful and people are moved by it. It results in a much stronger reaction than just talking at a conference and then again having a nice dinner at a five star hotel. By seeing what is at stake for our planet, people react from the head to the heart. And that is the only way we will jump into action for our planet.
Why isn’t scientific evidence enough to get people to act on climate change?
Science is important. On our expeditions we deliver hard science and powerful evidence that explains the challenges facing the world. For example, we have a scientist from the European Space Agency who brings compelling satellite data. But it is all the more powerful because we are able to show that the seemingly peaceful landscape is changing dramatically: sea ice in fjords is retreating and fresh water is entering the ocean and warming it up. It brings home the reality of climate change when you can actually see how a glacier has moved in the past 10 years ago.
What reaction do people have?
The realisation of the effect human beings are having on the world makes some people emotional: we’ve had CEOs break down and become teary-eyed. Everyone is torn between seeing the beauty of the landscape and wanting to save it and recognising the huge scale of the challenges the world faces and the simple fact that the easy way out is to do nothing and enjoy what we have.
Other than demonstrating the reality of climate change, what do you hope to achieve?
Our objective is to compel people to think and then hopefully to act. In this sense we are lucky because of the isolation of Spitsbergen. CEOs have time together, with no secretary pestering them with appointments or even Wi-Fi to respond to emails. They enjoy talking to each other and reflecting on the world in a way that simply isn’t possible in the day-to-day lives. We are not seeking to reinvent the wheel but these discussions can deliver impressive results. They help people to reach out and forge new alliances. For example, the Dutch national rail provider and a trash company have helped to create a circular economy-based model to deconstruct and refurbish trains. A port operator and airport, which might usually be seen as competitors, were brought together on our expedition and decided to bulk buy green energy using their collective scale to secure lower prices.


http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Obser ... th/CryoSat

Using data from ESA’s CryoSat mission, scientists have produced the best maps yet of the changing height of Earth’s biggest ice sheets.
CryoSat measures the height of ice – both of that floating in the polar oceans and of the vast ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica. This information is essential for working out the thickness of the ice and how it is changing and, ultimately, how the volume of Earth’s ice is being affected by the climate.
Their preliminary assessment is very close to that produced from gravity-sensing satellites, which currently see Greenland losing over 250 billion tonnes of ice a year.
However, CryoSat brings important additional detail to the picture.
It allows the team to study changes across the entire ice sheet at fine resolution, meaning the scientists are able to monitor the behaviour of individual glaciers.
Carrying an advanced radar altimeter, CryoSat orbits Earth at just over 700 km, reaching latitudes of 88° north and south to maximise its coverage of the poles.
The radar altimeter is not only able to detect tiny variations in the height of the ice but also measure sea level with unprecedented accuracy.
As the animation shows, the mission’s measurements of sea level incidentally also map the topography of the ocean floor, revealing thousands of previously unchartered ‘seamounts’, ridges and deep ocean structures.
This animation visualises the changes the satellite has seen on Earth since its launch in 2010.
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Atlantification is the norm

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 11:51:08

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10 ... -18-0003.1


35 freaky dollars if you want to read the whole tekst...….No way Jose :roll:

Abstract
Barents Sea Water (BSW) is formed from Atlantic Water that is cooled through atmospheric heat loss and freshened through seasonal sea ice melt. In the eastern Barents Sea, the BSW and fresher, colder Arctic Water meet at the surface along the Polar Front (PF). Despite its importance in setting the northern limit of BSW ventilation, the PF has been poorly documented, mostly eluding detection by observational surveys that avoid seasonal sea ice. In this study, satellite sea surface temperature (SST) observations are used in addition to a temperature and salinity climatology to examine the location and structure of the PF and characterize its variability over the period 1985–2016. It is shown that the PF is independent of the position of the sea ice edge and is a shelf slope current constrained by potential vorticity. The main driver of interannual variability in SST is the variability of the Atlantic Water temperature, which has significantly increased since 2005. The SST gradient associated with the PF has also increased after 2005, preventing sea ice from extending south of the front during winter in recent years. The disappearance of fresh, seasonal sea ice melt south of the PF has led to a significant increase in BSW salinity and density. As BSW forms the majority of Arctic Intermediate Water, changes to BSW properties may have far-reaching impacts for Arctic Ocean circulation and climate.



I think that Nova Zembla will be the next, completely, even East side, free from ice alike Spitsbergen, together with those Franz Joseph islands now locked in ice.
After that happens, the way is clear for the methane gun to go full force, 50 Gton, then the rest until the reservoir is depleted, 2000 Gton of free methane in the atmosphere and above, that'll be a blast from the past.
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Last polar explorer Bernice N.

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 13:54:03

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v8K2I-BpZg

Bernice Notenboom is a climate journalist, science writer, filmmaker, keynote speaker and professional adventurer. In 2008, she became the first woman to reach the North, South, and Cold Pole (in Siberia) and traversed the Greenland’s icecap on skis in one year. In 2009 she reached the top of the Mount Everest. Leaving the Netherlands in her mid twenties for a fast-groomed career track of a MBA, Wall Street and Microsoft, she quit her job and moved to rural Utah to start a sustainable rafting business. After Conservation International and National Geographic Traveler nominated her for best environmental practices, Notenboom sold her business and plunged into a career of professional adventurer.


She knows we lost the battle for ice, sea and land and what that means, loss of complex life on Earth.
Like our other Canadian mobilizer Paul B, they are selling hope for a future if we change our ways, humans learn in time to take only what we need. That Guy is a better teacher, to come up with using death as an advisor, to know that this could be your last moment, your last dance on this stage and let that knowledge guide you to be excellent in what you do, the choice everybody has to become stronger or be an asshole, to weaken yourself and others around you.
We are all walking that green mile, death people walking nowhere.

This makes everything equally unimportant, you cannot take anything with you.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 16:26:18

Nice post ^
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Barentz sea Hotspot

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 08 Dec 2018, 04:52:51

You're welcome Newfie, just look at the incredible amount of energy created or better released by that huge hotspot south southwest of Spitsbergen:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 750,77.102

It heats up incoming polar air with a minus 20 degrees C. up to 3 degrees above, then with that other hotspot Southeast brings about the whole Barents sea surface air temp in them greens, above zero.
Might be the first time in history, no sea ice up there, the East side of Nova Zembla and Franz Joseph will probably locked in with the pack and loads of fresh snow, hurricanes and huge waves.

I fully expect the Kara sea to be flooded with warm water the next meltseason, september 2019, then the next 2020, Laptev sea and we know what that means, the promised 50 G......BOE within one or two seasons….2022 plus or minus 3 years guesstimate.
Could be sooner if conditions are bad for ice but no later than 2025. Just a prediction, a guess nothing more.

You need a 5 year contingency plan and have your BUV, bug out vehicle and BOB, the bag ready, escape town before you drown.
NE passage will be the better option to travel, sail if needed, buy supplies at Murmansk and slip through the maze down the Bering to the Alaska panhandle, dock at Prince Rupert and built a cabin at Smithers, become a Smithereen if you know what I mean :roll:
Great place to pick up snowboarding, Hudson Bay mtn ski powder paradise.
I drove up the Cassiar hwy once with an old F250 and camperette, the Buccaneer.....great place to be in times of need and change.
Looked at a F550 from Fraserway RV, ideal 4wd camper for me, my wife, 3 kids and my mom.....solar panels/generator/2 slide outs.

http://www.fraserway.com/rentals/vehicl ... -motorhome

They are selling one with 50 k kilometers, model 2018.....pricy at 149 k Canadian. Perfect BOV though.
Love that diesel.

http://sales.fraserway.com/Page.aspx/di ... UAD17.aspx
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 08 Dec 2018, 07:08:33

Winters we live on our Bug Out Boat in the Caribbean but summers are spent in my Moms home town in Newfoundland. So, yeah to all that.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 08 Dec 2018, 12:34:13

Right on Newfie, I thought of BOB as in bug out bag but even better is your boat, you can bring all you need to places hard to get to.
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Nova Zembla thinning

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 08 Dec 2018, 17:28:03

To come back at the ice on Nova Zembla,

https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/10/11/1817

From the free abstract:

We find that the mass loss of Novaya Zemlya glaciers increased from 10 ± 5 Gt/year over 2003–2009 to 14 ± 4 Gt/year over 2010–2016, with a brief period of near-zero mass balance between 2009 and 2011. The results are consistent across the gravimetric and altimetric methods. Furthermore, the analysis of elevation change from CryoSat-2 indicates that the mass loss occurs at elevation below 700 m, where the highest thinning rates are found. We also find that marine-terminating glaciers in Novaya Zemlya are thinning significantly faster than land-terminating glaciers, which indicates an important role of ice dynamics of marine-terminating glaciers. We posit that the glacier changes have been caused by changes in atmospheric and ocean temperatures. We find that the increase in mass loss after 2010 is associated with a warming in air temperatures, which increased the surface melt rates. There is not enough information on the ocean temperature at the front of the glaciers to conclude on the role of the ocean, but we posit that the temperature of subsurface ocean waters must have increased during the observation period.


30 % increase, exponential abrupt climate change. The rest will follow the next decade, those Islands are on the front line.

Free paper!

Atmospheric temperatures will likely continue rising in the next century [5]. Model projections indicate that RHA will lose almost 50% of its total ice volume, corresponding to an equivalent 24±8
mm of SLR, by 2100 [21,22], which suggests that the regional mass loss will continue to increase in the coming decades. Model projections, however, are based on SMB models that do not include ice dynamics and hence may underestimates the mass loss. Additional observations will be necessary to determine the processes dictating the present-day annual mass change and to better constrain projections of the evolution of the RHA glaciers.


The RHA includes 51,592 of GIC, which is 13% of the total glaciated area outside of Greenland and Antarctica [23]. The glaciated areas of the RHA are distributed across four regions: Novaya Zemlya (22,379 km), Severnaya Zemlya (16,382 km), Franz Josef Land (12,756 km), and Ushakon Island (359 km). NZEM, lies between the Barents and Kara Seas and consists of two major islands, Severny Island and Yuzhny Island, along with several smaller islands. Severny and Yuzhny Islands are separated by the Matochkin Strait, a 600 m wide channel that stretches 100 km and connects the Barents and Kara Seas. An axial mountain range extends over the entire length of the NZEM with a maximum elevation of 1340 m on Yuzhny Island and 1596 m on Severny Island [22]. 92% of the total glacier area (20,784.4 km) is located on Severny Island and concentrated in a single large ice cap (Northern Icefield) that covers 45% of the island and constitutes the largest body of ice in the Eurasian Continent [23,24] (Figure 1).


The climate in the region is determined by a complex interaction between multiple oceanic and atmospheric forcings. On the North-West, mild temperatures are favored by the advection of warm and salty water transported by the North Cape current from the Atlantic Ocean [28,29,30]. Annual precipitation (400 mm/year) is favored by the influx of air masses rich in moisture by the Atlantic Cyclone [28,30]. Atmospheric conditions become gradually drier and colder toward the Southeast. The central mountain chain provides an orographic barrier for the eastward penetration of the Atlantic cyclonic system [28] and precipitation gradually decreases toward the South. On the Kara Sea coast, annual precipitation amounts to 250 mm/year. Here, lower atmospheric temperatures, especially in Winter and Spring, are controlled by semi-permanent sea ice and cold Arctic water [28]. January and February are the coldest months of the year with minimum air temperatures decreasing from the North-West (−15°
C) to the South-East (−21°C). Maximum temperature (+2C) is recorded in August, with no significant difference between the two coasts. Maximum precipitation is between September and October. April and May are the driest months of the year [28,31].


Zeeberg and Forman [32] observed that the decadal variability in glacier mass balance on NZEM is linked to long-term shifting of atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns caused by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During a positive phase of the NAO, sea-level pressure at high latitudes is below normal, while above normal conditions are registered at mid-latitudes. An increased pressure gradient over the North Atlantic contributes to an intensified and more zonally oriented jet stream. When the NAO is in a negative phase, a decreased pressure gradient between high and mid-latitudes weakens the jet stream which becomes more meridionally oriented [35]. When the NAO is in a prolonged positive phase, the straightening of the polar vortex contributes to an increased flux of air masses from the Atlantic Ocean, resulting in elevated winter precipitation over NZEM. A stronger North Atlantic pressure gradient intensifies the advection of warm water from the Atlantic into the Barents Sea [32]. The Atlantic Water (AW) releases heat into the atmosphere and yields warmer than normal winter and summer temperatures. During extended negative NAO phases, the jet stream weakens and atmospheric conditions in the region become drier and colder. Between the 1920’s and 1950’s, the NAO was predominantly positive and higher than normal atmospheric and ocean temperatures favored fast glacial recession. After 1960, the NAO turned to negative, i.e., colder atmospheric conditions and lower ocean temperatures, which slowed down the glacial retreat [32].
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby jawagord » Tue 11 Dec 2018, 19:19:08

From the it's Not as bad as we thought file - Negative feedbacks slow ice melt, golly!

"Our findings highlight some resilience of the Arctic sea ice cover," Petty said. "If we didn't have this negative feedback, the ice would be declining even faster than it currently is. Unfortunately, the positive feedback loop of summer ice melt and increased solar absorption associated with summer ice melting still appears to be dominant and continue to drive overall sea ice declines."


https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/wintertime-arctic-sea-ice-growth-slows-long-term-decline-nasa
Last edited by Tanada on Tue 11 Dec 2018, 20:18:13, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quote
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