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New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Darian S » Fri 30 Nov 2018, 17:20:30

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:Did I miss anything??

Yes you did. The usual false Cassandra claim that there are no more major productive oil deposits to be found globally. Or the implication that improving technology can't help. Or that market forces (if prices rise due to REAL WORLD shortages), that more oil can't be found.

Or your track record of literally thousands of completely bogus predictions of "doom" on this site over the past decade plus, which you pretend have no bearing on how credible your empty claims are.

But by all means, do carry on. Cassandras need hobbies too.

New Major deposits have to not only match all the declining production, to substitute such, but produce in excess to increase overall world production. Discoveries peaked last century, and there doesn't seem to be any reason to expect fields of such gargantuan magnitude as to replace, substitute, the entire global decline from most fields and then some, to produce notable excess above such, there is no evidence they are anywhere to be found.

Money is but a token to signal, ration, finite resource allocation, prices cannot rise arbitrarily high and allow for production above what the world is physically capable of producing. An attempt to increase prices above what the world can 'afford' will result in an attempt to unreasonably reallocate, divert, resources from the rest of the economy towards oil production, this will result in economic contraction and will be self defeating. The prices only have a viable range, and if within that range production can't match global demand at reasonable cost to producers the system will experience hardship.

Tanada wrote:So if you want to call peak how do you know it is peak? In the USA we peaked at the start of the 70's but in 2018 we are now exceeding that peak and setting new all time records of production. Certainly the USA is still consuming more than we produce, but we are importing several million barrels fewer a day than we were in 2005-08 and those bbls/d we do not buy are flowing in China and India who have ballooning private ICE vehicle fleets.

A quarter trillion debt ponzi scheme, while the fed provides the banks with zero interest to in turn give low interest to others. Yet what did it buy? A little more than a decade was bought, or are we expected to see shale still significantly increasing production into the 2030~s?

Most shale wells are said experience near 50% per year decline, bringing thousands upon thousands of wells rapidly online is no long term solution.

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:You do realize that maximum production occurs right before the peak?


Nobody really cares about statistical peak. They care about doom. At present climate change is a far more imminent threat than resource-scarcity.

Oil is not the only thing peaking. And real economic growth necessitates growth in energy production and consumption.

People say the american economy is peachy while homelessness is rapidly increasing in multiple cities, the retail apocalypse is going on(and online only has replaced a very small portion of the lost retail sales), many if not most americans are deeply in debt, the government debt is growing, many americans are 400$ away from being unable to make ends meet.

Skyrocketing debt, people defecating on the streets, record suicide levels lowering national lifespan, opioid crisis.

Cooked numbers don't hide what has been done. Zero interest by the fed for the previous years, vast loans, and credit cards being given like candy, don't hide the truth underneath.

Regards peak some say conventional peaked in 2006~.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 30 Nov 2018, 18:16:30

New Major deposits have to not only match all the declining production, to substitute such, but produce in excess to increase overall world production.


Not true simply because the “reserves” everyone refers to is generally equivalent to what BP reports on which are Proven reserves (the only number commonly reported). There are Probable and Possible reserves that are waiting in the isles along with discovered Contingent resources. The discoveries were made some time ago.

The prices only have a viable range, and if within that range production can't match global demand at reasonable cost to producers the system will experience hardship.


And we have yet to test that. To this point in time global production has been able to match demand and the IEA projections show that still being the case out to 2030 at least.

Most shale wells are said experience near 50% per year decline, bringing thousands upon thousands of wells rapidly online is no long term solution.


It depends on how many wells you have that are producing at the lower late stage decline rate. The theory is that decline rate can be as low as a couple of %/year and that has been shown in some of the older unconventional fields. If there were 2 million producing wells in the US hypothetically (all things being equal) that equates to ~15 billion bbls per year if each one were producing 20 bopd. It is that scalability that drove oil companies to pursue the unconventional plays in the first place. The exponential part of the decline pays for the well (higher production rate and quick payout) the low rate part of the decline creates a longer predictable production profile with enough wells producing.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Darian S » Sat 01 Dec 2018, 15:19:23

rockdoc123 wrote:
New Major deposits have to not only match all the declining production, to substitute such, but produce in excess to increase overall world production.


Not true simply because the “reserves” everyone refers to is generally equivalent to what BP reports on which are Proven reserves (the only number commonly reported). There are Probable and Possible reserves that are waiting in the isles along with discovered Contingent resources. The discoveries were made some time ago.
.

The production has to come online, and it has to match or exceed total decline and then some for decades to come, if we don't bring the myth of peak demand. In about just two decades we need about 4 saudi arabias worth of additional production or so some say to compensate for global decline, and that might be just to sustain production not significantly increase it as is likely required.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 01 Dec 2018, 17:32:17

The production has to come online, and it has to match or exceed total decline


which is exactly what has been happening in the US (see E&Y annual reserves report for 2018) as well as internationally (see BP annual energy review for 2018). In the US as an example, the top 50 companies have replaced production by 150% on average over the past 5 years.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Darian S » Sat 01 Dec 2018, 18:35:36

rockdoc123 wrote:
The production has to come online, and it has to match or exceed total decline


which is exactly what has been happening in the US (see E&Y annual reserves report for 2018) as well as internationally (see BP annual energy review for 2018). In the US as an example, the top 50 companies have replaced production by 150% on average over the past 5 years.

The permian is expected to peak before 2025, as will most U.S. fields be in decline. How fast will the post total final peak decline in the U.S shale plays be?

Already HSBC says 81% of global liquid oil production is in decline. So somewhere enough oil production will have to come online to surpass the soon falling U.S production as well as 81% of global production, and still after replacing millions of barrels fall in production, produce several million barrels above to provide for growth in production above current production to allow for economic growth.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 01 Dec 2018, 20:18:50

Each time EIA Dark State and their lapdoc rockdentest mumbles anything about 'reserves' you must ask yourself . . . 'at what price point?'
The Green River Formation is an assemblage of over 1,000 feet of sedimentary rocks that lie beneath parts of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming that contains the world’s largest deposits of oil shale. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that the Green River Formation contains about 3 trillion barrels of oil—yes I said trillion—with only half of it being recoverable, depending on available technology and economic conditions. So if my math is correct, the Green River Formation has the capability to produce around 1.5 trillion barrels of oil until it has been tapped dry. In comparison, 1.5 trillion barrels of oil is about equal to the entire world’s proven oil reserves. Colorado alone contains about 1,300,000 barrels of oil per acre on average, making it the most oil-rich deposit in the United States–and probably the entire world, according

Is Green River Shale p5, p50 or p95 reserve? Is it 'reserves' at $70/barrel or only at $1,000/barrel? Will the real world ever use Green River Shale? What is a 'reserve'? Apparently what the Dark State wants us to believe it is a 'reserve'. But no serious working petroleum geologist would call Green River a 'reserve'. Not in public.

So IE 'reserve' measures are often BS, political numbers. Real peak oil is all about collapsing production in virtually every major oil region.
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 01 Dec 2018, 21:54:28

pstarr wrote:E
So IE 'reserve' measures are often BS, political numbers. Real peak oil is all about collapsing production in virtually every major oil region.

And yet, in the real world, global production numbers continue to increase over time, as they always do except in times of a global recession.

If you want BS, look in the mirror and ponder your long history of unending spewed nonsense including endless terrible calls about short term doom.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 01 Dec 2018, 21:59:30

Darian S wrote:The permian is expected to peak before 2025, as will most U.S. fields be in decline. How fast will the post total final peak decline in the U.S shale plays be?

And let's pretend that there are NO more productive fields to frac oil from, ANYWHERE globally. Because that's what the doomers want to believe. :roll:

(Hint: Politics, environmentalism, and lack of incentive (prices not high enough YET to justify producing where costs are relatively high) can change when prices escalate enough.

When we have ACTUAL falling production causing rising prices due to unfilled demand, and this persists for, say, 5 years, be sure and get back to us. Meanwhile, credible sources like the IEA and EIA keep showing how global production continues to trend up.

Meanwhile, the EV revolution quietly continues, which will eventually lead to a decline in global transport demand.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Sun 02 Dec 2018, 06:31:35

@pstarr

The green river shale is not being used by any oil companies in their published reserves, so it's rather pointless to bring it up.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 02 Dec 2018, 12:22:46

Each time EIA Dark State and their lapdoc rockdentest mumbles anything about 'reserves' you must ask yourself . . . 'at what price point?'


either you never bothered to read what I have written on the subject or you are just too thick to understand it. I'm guessing it is a combination of the two.

The term "reserves" implies it is economic, that is the definition. Resources, on the other hand are not currently economic. The division of P1, P2 and P3 speaks to the ability to get at a certain level of reserves. Generally to move P2 to P1 or P3 to P2 or P1 requires additional investment in drilling and/or facilities. The only relationship to "price point" Probable reserves has versus Proven reserves would be the price at which new wells can be drilled economically, if the price is above wellhead breakeven then it doesn't come into the equation.

Is Green River Shale p5, p50 or p95 reserve? Is it 'reserves' at $70/barrel or only at $1,000/barrel? Will the real world ever use Green River Shale? What is a 'reserve'? Apparently what the Dark State wants us to believe it is a 'reserve'. But no serious working petroleum geologist would call Green River a 'reserve'.


As I stated above, you haven't paid attention to the definitions. So once more, the Green River Shale is a Resource as it is not economic. It would not be classified as a Reserve until it was economically feasible to develop it and currently there is no technology to make that hurdle.

When the term Reserves is used it means only that oil that is currently economically recovered. And the Reserves that are reported by companies to SEC and appear in all of their financial documents are Proven reserves only. The EIA reports Proven reserves only as does the IEA as does BP in it's annual review. You've imagined a problem that doesn't exist in reality.

So IE 'reserve' measures are often BS, political numbers.


Horseshit. They report those numbers that are filed by companies as Proven reserves. The rules are quite explicit as to what constitutes a Proven reserve, there are no political games going on except in your mind.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 02 Dec 2018, 13:31:56

Darian – “Already HSBC says 81% of global liquid oil production is in decline.” Not trying to be argumentive, bro, but not sure what you’re trying to say. Either global liquid oil production is increasing or it is not. Are you referring to production from individual wells or fields? Or from trends or basins currently being developed? I doubt they mean wells or fields: almost every well or fully developed field begins declining when it first begins producing. Perhaps very little decline: a small fraction of 1% but declining none the less. Closer to 100%.

And trends or basins? Maybe “81%” but that’s a very tricky call for two reasons. First, is that weighted 81% or not? Some trends or basins had very little oil production even at their peak. Second, development is subject to oil prices. For instance production from the Eagle Ford Shale trend declined significantly when oil prices took a big hit 3 years ago. But as prices rose EFS developed picked up as did production: the trend production declined significantly after late 2014 (so it might have been a part of the “81%” but lately trend production has been increasing. IOW no longer in the 81% decreasing group.

Don’t mean to confuse with all those details but when talking oil production volumes those details are critical to understanding what someone is trying to say.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Darian S » Sun 02 Dec 2018, 20:39:39

Oil discoveries peaked in the 1960’s.

Every year since 1984 oil consumption has exceeded oil discovery.

In 2017 oil discoveries were about 7 billion barrels; consumption was about 35 billion barrels

Of the world’s 20 largest oil fields, 18 were discovered 1917-1968; 2 in the 1970’s; 0 since...

More than 75% of dedicated US shale oil companies are unprofitable-cliffhanger1983

It is said IEA expects global peak before 2020.
… then the US would need to add another ‘Russia’ to the global oil balance in 7 years.
In this case, US tight liquids production would need to grow by an additional 6 mb/d between now and 2025. Total growth in US tight liquids between 2018 and 2025 would therefore be around 11 mb/d: roughly equivalent to adding another “Russia” to the global oil balance over the next 7 years.
https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/ ... shock.html

There will be an oil shortage in the 2020s, Goldman Sachs says-cnbc

Let's hope that other russia is there in the shale, and it can not only be sustained but increased for decades to come :twisted:

Shale was allowed by artificially low interest rates, and still unprofitable even at high prices. You expect even harder to get stuff can be brought online and produce sustainable increase in production for decades to come? A higher price is a query to the system, a query asking to divert more resources from the global economy towards oil production, this will severely affect the economy and demand, it cannot be sustained.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 02 Dec 2018, 23:12:15

Damian, you are up against two oil industry flacks and one intern. Don't cross them, they have more keyboards then you have fingers
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 03 Dec 2018, 10:41:43

pstarr wrote:they have more keyboards then you have fingers


You've got all of us beat many times over with your trolling skills.

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