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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 26 Nov 2018, 16:09:04

Yeah, I think it's more likely that we will be at the end of the chain. As more crops and livestock become overwhelmed by unsurvivable wet bulb temperatures, and as we continue to obliterate world fish stocks (and fish fall victim to acidifying oceans as well as plastics and other toxins we have been spewing into the deep), more and more humans will run out of reliable sources of nutrients and proteins, (though raw calories I predict will remain in fairly good supply, since that's one of the things increased CO2 environments do to plants--increase carbohydrate and cellulose levels (the things the plants use carbon for), and decrease levels of everything else, specifically proteins, vitamins and minerals.

And yes, you can die from vitamin deficiency. Already, "Each year, more than one million children under five die from vitamin A and zinc deficiencies."
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 26 Nov 2018, 16:30:23

dohboi wrote:Good question, Newf.

One I'm not sure about. From what I've heard, many domesticated animals have been bred so much toward meat production that they would no longer last long in the wild for very long, poultry in particular. Some dogs seem to be able to revert to feral status fairly easily, though, as do most cats. Horses were rewilded in the New World. Pigs go feral pretty readily, it seems. I don't know about cattle.

Some crops may have a hard time, too, I suppose. Doesn't domesticated rice have to be transplanted at a crucial stage to mature properly? Things like bonsai trees are obviously goners!

Anyone else have thoughts on that?


In reverse order. Bonsai is a system of root trimming to restrict the size of the tree, without cutting the roots the descendant trees will simply grow to full normal size.
Rice can do just fine in the wild where it doesn't get packed close together for easy harvest. in the wild the plants spread out and mix with other forms of semi-aquatic vegetation and are naturally reproductive in the swampy environment.
Cattle go feral just as easily as horses or hogs, that is where the original Texas Longhorn breed came from. A Spanish rancher in Mexico had a herd escape captivity and they bred in the wild for about 300 years before human population density in northern Mexico and Texas got high enough to make rounding them up for slaughter worthwhile.
Almost all domestic cat breeds are technically cohabiting wild animals, they are not 'tame' in the same way dogs are as all of their hunting instincts and skills remain active. Drop any 'house cat' off in the wilderness and it has an excellent chance for survival and if it is not neutered (spayed) it will breed and produce generations of 'feral' wildcats. Any kittens of such 'feral' cats captured and raised in a human environment will behave like any 'domesticated' cat. For felines the case is strictly environmental.
Large dog breeds, the size of Coyote or Wolf and above, will go 'feral' within months and take to acting in the same packs as wild coyote, wolf or jackal. Unlike cats however domestication of dogs has been much more thorough and they retain a puppies curiosity and friendliness until such time as events train them to behave less friendly. Dog/Coyote, Dog/wolf and Dog/jackal cross breeds are all fertile and behave in an intermediate fashion and minus human influence even pure mixed breed dogs arising from feral pack behavior (the Wolf pattern typically asserts itself) will act like Wolves within a decade as the human influenced generation passes on and wild grown dogs take over the pack.

The real tragedy of St. Mathews islands reindeer is that no natural predatory animals were introduced with them. With wild dogs or wolves the natural predator/prey balance would have formed and the ecosystem disaster which took place would have been averted. When I was growing up in Michigan we got a lesson on hunter/predator/prey relationships as part of our school curriculum. It seems that back in the 1930's someone convinced the state government that predators like timber wolves were keeping the deer population down to about 30,000 animals and hungry hunters wanted more prey to feed their families. The state acted to eliminate timber wolves with bounties and such driving them to local extinction in many places. In two years the Deer population exploded to over 100,000 and the hunters were happy for a short while, but a year later the deer population exceeded carrying capacity and the population crashed to 10,000 from starvation, not to mention mayhem on the roads in the form of vehicle/deer collisions. The wolf bounties were reversed and replaced with fines for a time and in the 1970's the state started planting timber wolf packs in state forest areas. The NPS also introduced wolves back to Isle Royal which is a wholly isolated national park in Lake Superior. Reintroduction became a total success, the deer population is back at a sustainable level for the last 40 years with hunters having quotas that are pretty generous.

Take away the human 'managers' and most animals and plants will revert to successful wild forms in a generation or less. A few exception like Maize and String-beans do exist, plants that we have so bred that they no longer propagate without intervention, and a few bizzare domestic animals like Butterball Turkeys that can not breed without artificial insemination do exist, but their less intensively manipulated relatives still exist and breed quite happily without human intervention. The Butterballs might disappear in a generation, but everything from wild turkeys to half a dozen different domesticated but naturally functioning breeds would still exist. As for chickens, those in the coldest climate zones would probably die off without human protection but they are a tropical bird (native to Vietnam) and they run wild all over the southern half of the Continental USA without issues. They are even considered a wild pest in some Florida cities where they are as common as Pigeons in Chicago or New York but much louder. Despite the impression you may have from cartoon portrayals Chickens and Turkeys are 'tree fowl'. That is to say in the wild they nest in trees just like robins or finches, and fly up into the trees when startled or attacked. In urban environments they select low roof building tops and an enraged territorial rooster can be quite effective at driving moderately interested people away with their spurs and beaks. My younger brother nearly lost an eye to an angry rooster growing up, fortunately he got his hands up quickly enough to only get scratched on his cheek and forehead.
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Anyhow, I wouldn't worry about our pets and poultry and livestock, with a few exceptions they wouldn't even know we were missing.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 00:24:13

Good points, T.

What do you think about my main point...that we are more likely to be at the end of the chain--deprived of food sources that can no longer cope in a hotter and more climate-chaotic world? I realize that we do have the advantage of being much more omniverous than most animals, but still people will have trouble adjusting if most of the major food crops they have come to depend on are gone or in short supply.

"our pets and poultry and livestock, with a few exceptions they wouldn't even know we were missing"

Or will we become just another meal to them?

Or as Priam put it in his plea to his son Hector in Homer's Iliad:

"In the end, I shall be slain by a thrust from some sharp spear,
and the flesh-eating dogs before my door will tear my corpse apart,
the very dogs I fed from my table, reared to guard these same doors,
dogs that will lie there in the gateway when in their savagery they’ve lapped my blood"

Or, if you prefer:

αὐτὸν δ᾽ ἂν πύματόν με κύνες πρώτῃσι θύρῃσιν
ὠμησταὶ ἐρύουσιν, ἐπεί κέ τις ὀξέϊ χαλκῷ
τύψας ἠὲ βαλὼν ῥεθέων ἐκ θυμὸν ἕληται,
οὓς τρέφον ἐν μεγάροισι τραπεζῆας θυραωρούς,
70οἵ κ᾽ ἐμὸν αἷμα πιόντες ἀλύσσοντες περὶ θυμῷ
κείσοντ᾽ ἐν προθύροισι...
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 01:58:30

What I take from Tanada's post is that humans will follow the same path as dogs , cats, hogs,horses, etc. Those humans who survive will become more feral. Butterball humans will not contribute their genes.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby MickN » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 07:05:49

Excellent stuff from Tanada. Seems to me that we are the Michigan Deer without our traditional timber wolves equivalent.
Perhaps it's getting near the time when Mr Pestilence and Ms Famine and their entire family make their reappearance. The butterballing the human race experiment seems to be progressing nicely though if towns I've visited recently are anything to go by.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 12:16:18

I can summarize:

We're all Turkeys!

Definition: Probably closest is lack of any grasp of true reality.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 14:52:14

Ibon wrote:What I take from Tanada's post is that humans will follow the same path as dogs , cats, hogs,horses, etc. Those humans who survive will become more feral. Butterball humans will not contribute their genes.

Butterball humans ( :-D yuck) have the same DNA under all their fat as do the fastest runners. In the case of humans, I tend to go with nurture over nature.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 16:58:29

pstarr wrote:I tend to go with nurture over nature.


Yep. How many redwood curtain blunts did it take to reduce your IQ?
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 21:54:49

dohboi wrote:Good points, T.

What do you think about my main point...that we are more likely to be at the end of the chain--deprived of food sources that can no longer cope in a hotter and more climate-chaotic world? I realize that we do have the advantage of being much more omniverous than most animals, but still people will have trouble adjusting if most of the major food crops they have come to depend on are gone or in short supply.


Oh make no mistake I believe that we are highly likely to experience a large population reduction, not because it is unavoidable so much as because we are doing nothing to make avoidance probable. Today while food is abundant governments everywhere should be stockpiling the surplus against the chaotic adjustment period, among other strategies. Unfortunately I don't know of any politician who looks past the next election cycle, and long term planning requires a long term view of the world, not a 2-4-6 year cycle view.

Democracy was never a good idea, that is why the founders initially built the USA as a republic instead. Unfortunately over the last century we have morphed from being republic in nature to being democracy in nature, we no longer look to the future we look to the present or in business the next quarter. Not every government is as short sighted as the EU and North America, but enough of them are to place the current civilization in serious jeopardy. If enough pieces of the world system crash then the last countries standing will be hard pressed not to get caught in the landslide of falling apart. The USSR was very fortunate that when they fell apart the rest of the world kept chugging along and that allowed them the time to recover without serious technological loss. If the USSR had fallen at the same time the EU and USA fell it might not have turned out that way. Today China is working hard to develop interior markets for their manufacturing sector so that they can keep civilization if the rest of us fall apart together, but it remains to be seen if they shall succeed.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 28 Nov 2018, 06:19:59

Ibon wrote:What I take from Tanada's post is that humans will follow the same path as dogs , cats, hogs,horses, etc. Those humans who survive will become more feral. Butterball humans will not contribute their genes.

^+1

Also to Tanada, excellent post.

China’s dilemma is their internal food supply/capita. I doubt they can isolate themselves without also suffering a dramatic population decrease. I’ve come to the conclusion that USA/Canada have best chances of survival.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Wed 28 Nov 2018, 07:09:04

I wonder if the Chinese interest in Africa indicates they are thinking about the long term food issue.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 28 Nov 2018, 08:59:29

Good points, T and Newf.

China also has problems such as desertification, pollution, superfluity of single men, the inevitable submergence of much of its very populated east coast, and many others.

Cog, that's pretty much what I assume.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 28 Nov 2018, 09:08:40

Cog wrote:I wonder if the Chinese interest in Africa indicates they are thinking about the long term food issue.


It absolutely is. The Chinese have strategic investments in agriculture throughout SE Asia, Africa and in Latin America. Besides providing access to globally distribute their products, one of the reason of the Belt and Road Global Infrastructure Project the Chinese are undertaking is to secure access transport corridors for importing agricultural products for their domestic use.

One way that a country becomes extremely motivated and efficient to plan for a future of scarcity is when they have had a recent history of severe famine.

China, overcrowded and lacking in arable land looks on the surface to be a country highly vulnerable to upcoming constraints. That may be the case. But they are certainly well honed to having survived constraints in the past and are most likely far ahead of the curve in planning to mitigate this. The communist party is held hostage by a huge population and the party apparatus knows that the moment they fail to deliver basic security and progress is the moment their hold on the power structure will falter.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 13:45:38

Great Dying’: Biggest ever mass extinction triggered by global warming leaving animals unable to breathe


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/scie ... 6Net-VTr2I
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 16:03:51

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... 77TKDV5Ai4
"Global warming today mirrors conditions leading to Earth’s largest extinction event, UW study says"
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 08 Dec 2018, 04:08:16

Meh. The truth is by the time the hysterics get done writing headlines we all died back around the time monthly newsletter were invented. You know back when Johanas Gutenberg invented movable type. (He did NOT invent the printing press, they had been around for hundreds of years, he invented movable type which made is easy to switch pages in series to print more than a single sheet of repeated text as was done with carved or cast page plates.)
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Revi » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 15:02:46

Mass die off will ensue when it becomes less cost effective to keep people alive. I give it around 2 years. It's about to become a lot more expensive to move stuff around the world. Jan 1st 2020 the world's shipping fleet has to get rid of sulphur laden bunker C oil and switch to much lighter oil. A lot of stuff moves around the world, including lots of food.
https://gcaptain.com/opinion-sulfur-cap ... oil-shock/
Of course there's always this way to get stuff around the world:
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 15:39:17

Good points, Revi.

Actually, T, as with much else, the Chinese invented the movable type first: "The world's first movable type printing press technology for printing paper books was made of porcelain materials and was invented around AD 1040 in China during the Northern Song Dynasty by the inventor Bi Sheng (990–1051). Subsequently in 1377, the world's oldest extant movable metal print book, Jikji, was printed in Korea during the Goryeo dynasty."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Movable_type
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 11 Dec 2018, 00:24:56

Thanks for this to wdmn at asif:

Past Earth system states offer possible model systems for the warming world of the coming decades. These include the climate states of the Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma), the Mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma), the Last Interglacial (129–116 ka), the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), preindustrial (ca. 1850 CE), and the 20th century. Here, we quantitatively assess the similarity of future projected climate states to these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS), and the Community Climate System Model, Versions 3 and 4 (CCSM) Earth system models.

Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, by 2030 CE, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene climates, and by 2150 CE, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. Under RCP4.5, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 CE. Pliocene-like and Eocene-like climates emerge first in continental interiors and then expand outward. Geologically novel climates are uncommon in RCP4.5 (<1%) but reach 8.7% of the globe under RCP8.5, characterized by high temperatures and precipitation. Hence, RCP4.5 is roughly equivalent to stabilizing at Pliocene-like climates, while unmitigated emission trajectories, such as RCP8.5, are similar to reversing millions of years of long-term cooling on the scale of a few human generations.

Both the emergence of geologically novel climates and the rapid reversion to Eocene-like climates may be outside the range of evolutionary adaptive capacity.



New study published today: Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates. https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018 ... 1809600115.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 11 Dec 2018, 06:13:38

Allow me to point something out dohboi. In Pliocene climates North America where we both live was semi tropical climate up to at least Hudson's Bay. In other words the only permanent ice was in northern Greenland and on high mountains and world sea level was 8-10 meters higher than today. That is the OPTIMISTIC prediction!

In the Eeocene there was no permanent ice except high mountain tops anywhere meaning both Greenland and Antarctica mostly ice free. That puts world sea levels 72-80 meters higher than today depending on whom you ask.
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