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Peak Oil Call and Bet

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil Call and Bet

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 17 Nov 2018, 18:12:01

pstarr wrote:That's your dumb-#ss signiture.


Get used to it. It's not changing anytime soon.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now. (11/21/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Peak Oil Call and Bet

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 17 Nov 2018, 19:14:16

No terms. Just the bet as per above.

"Jan 1 production > Dec 31 production"
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: Peak Oil Call and Bet

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 17 Nov 2018, 19:37:01

What odds are you offering? What amount are you betting? How will the bet be settled? Which source will be used to authenticate production levels?

Also, why look at monthly fluctuations? If you think this is the year of peak oil, then let's use annual production figures: 2018 vs 2019.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Peak Oil Call and Bet

Unread postby marmico » Thu 22 Nov 2018, 06:53:19

New monthly record in August 2018 of 82.764 million barrels per day.

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... ec11_5.pdf
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Re: Peak Oil Call and Bet

Unread postby spike » Mon 26 Nov 2018, 04:38:26

Why not a wager on non-OPEC oil?
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Re: Peak Oil Call and Bet

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 26 Nov 2018, 05:05:09

marmico wrote:New monthly record in August 2018 of 82.764 million barrels per day.

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... ec11_5.pdf


The nice thing about that table is it clearly demonstrates the world supply bobbles up and down. So far we do not have world peak so after a down swing we have always hit a higher peak on the subsequent up swing. This table tells you everything you need to know about short cycle predictions. Calling peak now is truly meaningless when past stats show prior dips have extended to nearly a decade in length.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Peak Oil Call and Bet

Unread postby spike » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 05:38:49

What's illustrative, Tanada, is that some seize on every decline as 'proof' of the peak, as if there hadn't been many other bobbles, as you say. We are all biased, but many don't seem to realize that. M. Lynch
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Re: Peak Oil Call and Bet

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 12:26:16

Nice to see you posting, Mr. Lynch.

With your longstanding reputation as both observing and evaluating innovative trends, the potentiality of the MOF world may bear close scrutiny, particularly regarding the hydrocarbon universe.

With cutting edge samples the size of a pea containing internal surface area the size of two football fields, effective methane storage is on the horizon.

With the Iranians already claiming of success in sub 500 psi storage enabling vehicle transportation comparable to gasoline, all 50 million US households supplied with natgas could someday fuel their CNG cars/trucks right at home.

Interesting times.
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Re: Peak Oil Call and Bet

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 12:47:11

spike wrote:Why not a wager on non-OPEC oil?

Why? OPEC has peaked. Without a 'swing producer' there is only volatility and insane price swings, hence the crash in oil prices (not to mention the thermodynamic impossibility of producing oil at a <2:1 eroei) All oil producing entities are producing flat out. Virtually all are losing money.

And then there is this :shock: (JODI)
Image
Lots of shopping (gasoline), nothing to buy (diesel)
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: Peak Oil Call and Bet

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 13:28:02

And then there is this :shock: (Oilprice)

Oilprice,Nov 27, 2018; Mexico’s Oil Crisis Deepens
Mexico’s state oil company Pemex said it produced an average 1.76 million bpd of crude in October, down 7 percent from October last year, Reuters reports, citing data released by the company. This is also one of the lowest monthly production rates since 1990 when records began.

Damn socialists, out to steal rockdentists pin money :evil:

I am willing to raise the stakes if anyone is interested. Just trying to drum up a little interest in this dying web site. :roll: Doing my part for a better Amurica lol
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: Peak Oil Call and Bet

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 14:05:31

"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now. (11/21/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Peak Oil Call and Bet

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 14:18:53

I can't imagine you are a paid troll asg70. You say nothing and won't even take my bet. You are a chicken. peck peck peck cluck cluck cluck [smilie=duckie.gif] [smilie=duckie.gif] [smilie=duckie.gif]

Having completed that necessary insult . . . what do you think of record low diesel inventories?
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: Peak Oil Call and Bet

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 16:55:45

pstarr wrote:what do you think of record low diesel inventories?


I think it won't lead to doom, that's what. Doomers are too fixated on the minutiae of oil supply ups and downs. I mean, come on. Why not go back and read some of your posts from 10 years ago when you were doing exactly what you're doing now, looking at the current situation and painting an end-is-nigh portrait. It wasn't true then and it's not true now. If it comes it won't be forecast off of your analysis, that's for sure.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now. (11/21/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Peak Oil Call and Bet

Unread postby spike » Wed 28 Nov 2018, 07:53:37

Pstarr, betting on non-OPEC avoids having an OPEC-led production cut to support prices affect the bet. It wouldn't be indicative of peak, but market weakness. And OPEC is close to producing flat out at the moment, but many countries can easily increase capacity.
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