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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 13:58:23

I see the AGW hysterics have given up on the calamitous predictions. No more 'runaway', 'tipping point' or 'point of no return' type events. Just record keeping. No more California Drought either. Not this one. Not the last one. Both gone.

Well, I am here to say that I don't give a darn about 'AGW'. In part because who knows how much of the 'GW' is caused by 'A'. Lots of warming happened before humans showed up to burn fossil fuels.

Also earth has gained more than 1 million square miles of additional forest since 1983 as a direct consequence of CO2 fertilization. Seems those new trees will take up TOO MUCH CO2 in the future, as they mature. Oh the worry :shock: :o 8) AGC! (anthropomorphic global cooling)
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 17:00:45

pstarr wrote:Well, I am here to say that I don't give a darn about 'AGW'.


I think we figured that out already. So why don't you proceed to STFU about it now and leave the discussion to those who actually have functioning brain cells?

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 18:11:52

In recent years the Arctic has experienced an increasing number of extreme weather events, which are causing significant dieback of plants in the region.

Now a team of researchers from the University of Sheffield in the U.K. has found that dieback following these events could significantly reduce the ability of Arctic ecosystems to mitigate the impacts of climate change, according to a paper published in the journal Global Change Biology.

The team have described this dieback—a condition in which a plant begins to die from the tip of their leaves or roots—after certain extreme events as “Arctic Browning.”

“Arctic browning is declining biomass or productivity in Arctic regions,” Rachael Treharne, from the Department of Animal and Plant Sciences at Sheffield, told Newsweek. “Extreme events linked to winter weather—such as abrupt periods of extreme warmth—are among the key drivers of Arctic browning. These events can cause sudden plant damage across huge areas.”

“Over the last few years we’ve seen a range of extreme events driving browning across thousands of square kilometers,” she said. “We’ve even seen these events causing record browning across entire Arctic regions [in this case, the Nordic Arctic Region.] Many of the events causing this damage to plant communities are happening more frequently due to climate change, which is progressing exceptionally rapidly in the Arctic—twice as fast as the global average.”

“Our results show that Arctic browning causes massive reductions in the ability of Arctic ecosystems to take up carbon,” Treharne said. “Arctic browning driven by extreme climatic events halves the ability of widespread Arctic heathlands to take up carbon dioxide,” Treharne said.

“In more detail, net CO2 uptake—the primary measure of ecosystem carbon balance—was reduced by 48 percent in vegetation dominated by mortality, and 50 percent in that dominated by stress,” she said. “It is surprising that these reductions are so similar, suggesting that extreme events can have major impacts on ecosystem CO2 balance even where vegetation is not killed.”

link

And just to be clear about pbrain's nonsense, the Earth HAS NOT gained a million sqare miles of forest since 1983. What an idiot.

We rely on trees for the production of oxygen so that we can breathe, yet globally, world annual deforestation is estimated at 13.7 million hectares a year, equal to the area of Greece.

Taking into consideration that since 1947, between 7.5 million and 8 million km2 of the original 15 million to 16 million km2 of forest that covered the planet—have now been destroyed (Nielsen, 2006), it is alarming to think about the number of species that may have become extinct before they were even identified.

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 11 Dec 2018, 02:27:51

A sobering new piece in the journal Nature finds that October's dire UN science report about the ongoing and future effects of climate change may have actually underestimated the pace of global warming.

... The new analysis, if borne out, widens what's already a huge gulf between the expected human and ecological toll from high levels and rapid rates of warming and the failure of governments worldwide to bring about the steep carbon emissions cuts that could prevent runaway temperature increases.


https://www.axios.com/climate-change-ha ... 26caf.html

Nature article referenced above:

Global warming will happen faster than we think

Three trends will combine to hasten it...

..rising emissions, declining air pollution and natural climate cycles...will combine over the next 20 years to make climate change faster and more furious than anticipated. In our view, there’s a good chance that we could breach the 1.5 °C level by 2030
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 11 Dec 2018, 06:02:56

These kind of reports drive me bonkers! You guys have pointed to science data that clearly show climate change is never a smooth transition from one stable state to another. It always goes in abrupt steps at tipping points. Yet the media keeps reporting as if today will be a tiny bit warmer than yesterday and over 20 years this tiny daily increase adds up to something significant.

But you guys convinced me, that isn't how it works. You get tiny changes until you fall over the tipping point, than wham you get a big change within a year, then you go back to tiny changes for a while. So far we have not crossed that tipping point in Ohio, but as lng as we keep pushing the day is getting nearer!
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dissident » Tue 11 Dec 2018, 10:34:33

Subjectivist wrote:These kind of reports drive me bonkers! You guys have pointed to science data that clearly show climate change is never a smooth transition from one stable state to another. It always goes in abrupt steps at tipping points. Yet the media keeps reporting as if today will be a tiny bit warmer than yesterday and over 20 years this tiny daily increase adds up to something significant.

But you guys convinced me, that isn't how it works. You get tiny changes until you fall over the tipping point, than wham you get a big change within a year, then you go back to tiny changes for a while. So far we have not crossed that tipping point in Ohio, but as lng as we keep pushing the day is getting nearer!


F*ck the media. It is not a metric of the truth. It is a spew of fake news propaganda.

It is this very same media that has implanted into the brains of the masses the ridiculous notion that there is some sort of scientific debate about anthropogenic global warming. They did this by faking a debate on the air or paper between some token "representative" of the science community and some industry shill. The latter had typically better debating skills than the former (a deliberate set up).

Now the media is hyping climate change as if it got new marching orders. As before, they are information hacks who are not worth the time of day.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby GHung » Tue 11 Dec 2018, 11:02:46

dissident wrote: ...........

Now the media is hyping climate change as if it got new marching orders. As before, they are information hacks who are not worth the time of day.


Meh, the 'media' is just a bunch of yippy barking little dogs who sound the alarm about anything that people will listen to, whether or not there is something to be alarmed about. That said, I have a couple of those around the place because they are generally useful.

As for climate change and politics, if we have another two years of extreme, and costly, weather-related events, I expect we'll see more of those liberals (that so many here are terrified of) running things. Just a predictable response from a reactionary, fickle population that doesn't expect to have to pay the full price of their impacts on the environment, while expecting SOMEONE to do SOMETHING about things. They have to because they can't admit that their grandchildren are largely fucked due to our collective behavior over the last couple of centuries.

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 12 Dec 2018, 10:27:47

Good discussion, but just a note: The article refered to is not just 'the media' but from Nature, one of the most respected academic science journals on the planet (not that this makes it God's Truth, or any such thing, of course), tho it does seem to be from the 'Comments' section, that is a bit more popularly oriented.

And I apologize for not including this link to it: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dissident » Wed 12 Dec 2018, 23:38:11

dohboi wrote:Good discussion, but just a note: The article refered to is not just 'the media' but from Nature, one of the most respected academic science journals on the planet (not that this makes it God's Truth, or any such thing, of course), tho it does seem to be from the 'Comments' section, that is a bit more popularly oriented.

And I apologize for not including this link to it: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5


Perhaps some near term overlap of factors will induce more pain and raise public awareness. Without pain there will be no action.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 13 Dec 2018, 09:39:23

Perhaps.

But mostly the super rich can manage to avoid the worst of the pain. And the big decisions need buy in from that ruling class.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 13 Dec 2018, 14:35:51

Scientists are building new global climate model from the ground up, building on new observational data and new understandings of how the atmosphere and the climate actually work.

climate-model-built-ground-up

US scientists at Cal Tech and other leading institutions are joining forces to build a modern high resolution global climate model capable of predicting not only future temperature changes, but local scale changes in things like sea ice, cloud cover, and precipitation.

The scientists have formed a consortium and expect the new model to be completed in about five years.

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 13 Dec 2018, 15:26:52

Plantagenet wrote:Scientists are building new global climate model from the ground up, building on new observational data and new understandings of how the atmosphere and the climate actually work.

climate-model-built-ground-up

US scientists at Cal Tech and other leading institutions are joining forces to build a modern high resolution global climate model capable of predicting not only future temperature changes, but local scale changes in things like sea ice, cloud cover, and precipitation.

The scientists have formed a consortium and expect the new model to be completed in about five years.

Cheers!

So five years to come up with a better guess? Might be a little late by then.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 13 Dec 2018, 16:23:46

vtsnowedin wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Scientists are building new global climate model from the ground up, building on new observational data and new understandings of how the atmosphere and the climate actually work.

climate-model-built-ground-up

US scientists at Cal Tech and other leading institutions are joining forces to build a modern high resolution global climate model capable of predicting not only future temperature changes, but local scale changes in things like sea ice, cloud cover, and precipitation.

The scientists have formed a consortium and expect the new model to be completed in about five years.

Cheers!

So five years to come up with a better guess? Might be a little late by then.


Five years should give you more than enough time to learn the difference between output from a supercomputer climate model run and a "guess."

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 13 Dec 2018, 20:23:18

Plantagenet wrote:Five years should give you more than enough time to learn the difference between output from a supercomputer climate model run and a "guess."

Cheers!

As far as I know no computer model to date can be set on a known date and conditions and run ahead accurately for more then a few weeks so they are guesses and the fact that they are working on a better one is an admission that all they have now are not good enough.
Some guesses are better then others but they are still a guess.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 13 Dec 2018, 21:06:10

vtsnowedin wrote: the fact that they are working on a better one is an admission that all they have now are not good enough.


???????

Science is highly dependent on technology, and technology is improving all the time. By developing and applying new technology we will get better data and be able understand natural processes better. By linking in the improved data and improved understanding of natural processes to a new generation of global climate models, higher resolution output will result.

Newer 3D global climate models have tended to predict more global warming then earlier, more primitive computer models. It will be interesting to see if the newest US GCM continues this trend.

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 14 Dec 2018, 12:13:30

vtsnowedin wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Five years should give you more than enough time to learn the difference between output from a supercomputer climate model run and a "guess."

Cheers!

As far as I know no computer model to date can be set on a known date and conditions and run ahead accurately for more then a few weeks so they are guesses and the fact that they are working on a better one is an admission that all they have now are not good enough.
Some guesses are better then others but they are still a guess.


I think you are confusing Climate models and Weather models. Climate is the accumulated weather over 30-100 years, which tends to smooth out the spikes in either directions and give you the long term average. Weather on the other hand has an incredibly large number of variables affecting it so it is theoretically impossible to predict it more than a few weeks in advance, and that is only in the most general way. Poor Richards Almanac makes its seasonal predictions based mostly on previous seasons, in effect it is a climate model even if hardly anyone calls it that. When you know what the weather did on this date for the last 30-100 years you can state with a reasonable amount of certainty the weather today will be around the average of all those prior years. If you are smart you also say what the records high and low is for this day of the calendar to cover all your bases and you take readings to try and predict if you will be above or below the average for the date.

Climate models are a whole different kettle of fish than weather prediction models. They don't look at todays temperature because today is just a tiny part of even a 30 year model and even less of a 100 year model data set. They then look at the tends over that 30-100 years and try to predict what those same trends will result in 30-100 years from today. Climate models are not in any way applicable to weather forecasting. they actually do a pretty good job when you feed in the known conditions of say 1000 AD and see if their predictions match the climate in 1030-1100 AD.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 14 Dec 2018, 12:50:18

Tanada wrote:I think you are confusing Climate models and Weather models. .

No I'm not confused by the difference. What climate model do they have that can be started with 1918 data that will come up with the climate we have in 2018? how about one that can run successfully from say 1998 to 2018? As I said the fact they are going back to the drawing board is an admission that all they have are failures.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 14 Dec 2018, 13:10:37

"Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!" - Michael Corleone, Godfather III

Lots of people playing false and loose with the truth in this thread. First of all, there are no "facts" about AGW, only observations and theories. In the case of the IPCC, possibly the most well known organization pushing the unproven theory that mankind is modifying planetary climate, there are periodic "Assessment Reports" (AR3 in 2001, AR4 in 2007, AR5 in 2014). AR5 is on schedule to be published in 2022. Also with each AR, the IPCC publishes a "Summary Report for Policymakers". The SR contains a statement about the number of IPCC members, and the number of IPCC members who concur with the report, and the number who do not concur.

In spite of the fact that IPCC membership is way up, along with the IPCC budget, "concensus" has proved elusive in this organization. AR4 had fewer members in concensus than AR3. AR5 has fewer members in concensus than AR4. In fact, "concensus" is dissolving, not increasing over time, among an organization of the most qualified climate professionals. (Admittedly, the majority opinion supported the theory in all three AR's.)

Not so at Peak Oil. Members here talk disingenuously about "facts", imply that AGW is factually true and not a theory. In actuality, it will always be a theory, even if the last two people debating are doing so in a hot arid desert on the continent of Antarctica, and the changing climate kills them. Still a theory, never a fact - just the true nature of Science and scientific theories about planetary scale events.

I firmly believe that changing climate is a long term concern. It will absolutely result in massive changes to the planetary ecology, possibly and even probably mass extinction events, as it has in the past before mankind thought of burning FF's. However, I also believe that the great majority of climate change is entirely natural, and would still occur even if mankind did not exist and never burned FF's. I understand why this upsets some of you, who like to indulge in the fantasy that only if we behaved differently, we could save ourselves.

Well, forget about it. The last three Climatic Optimums (the peak temperatures between Glacials) were briefer than the current one which has lasted about 10,000 years so far. They were also between 2 and 4 degrees C warmer than our best guess for today. The fourth most recent Climatic Optimum was different, and lasted over 30,000 years, from 450,000BC to 420,000BC. The current climate and climate changes are well within historical norms, and hysteria over AGW is entirely unwarranted.

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 14 Dec 2018, 18:07:30

peak oil is a theory, you know. There is an important fact that space methane (its's what the early atmosphere of earth is comprised) is converted into dense hydrocarbons under pressure within the mantel of the planet. The same is happening on Jupiter and Saturn, and that is why the secret space missions and all the experts from the White House are headed out there.
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 14 Dec 2018, 19:43:16

Wow, I thought I had heard all the conspiracy theories, or at least read about them in SF books over the decades. But that one is new, let's have some fun with it before we set it free.

If massive amounts of oil are being created in Jupiter and Saturn and Uranus and Neptune (the gas giant planets), it should be possible to use the secret US space program to import it to the Earth and hide it somewhere obvious, like under the Saudi Arabian desert sands. Positive proof of this theory would be massive amounts of oil discovered in such an unlikely place.

Of course, the Illuminati are in charge and their minion is Donald Trump. But here's the kicker:

I have it on good authority that the Illuminati are actually a Zionist banking organization, secretly being influenced by the Gay Whales for Christ. Of course, all of these groups are good Democrats.
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