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Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 26 Nov 2018, 16:58:40

shortonoil wrote:
The real problem is that there is no equilibrium anymore and the situation will only get worse as the EROEI of oil production is falling.


Oil prices bounced by $1.15 this morning. These articles came out before the rise happened. Interesting? It looks like they are trying to keep 10 plates, and a pizza all spinning at the same time.

https://uk.webfg.com/news/market-report ... 12739.html
https://www.theoilandgasyear.com/news/o ... ter-slump/
https://www.offshore-technology.com/new ... vy-losses/

If they are going to try playing hide and seek with the Second Law, they will need to get their timing a little better.


Shortonoil you are a nerd. After EROEI 2:1 your work is done. The oil price will now destroy the economy and the oil industry. The oil price is now blind and will never find equilibrium again...since the equilibrium is broken.

The second law will rule thought...in the end.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 26 Nov 2018, 17:05:53

"The second law will rule thought...in the end."
Yep, that is the point isn't it. Bad Economies is the symptom, lack of net energy is the disease.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 26 Nov 2018, 17:25:53

rockdoc123 wrote:IT is amazing how you guys can convince yourselves of a story that has no backup in real data.


The global economy is growing faster than it has been for 5 years. It is growing faster than the average of the last 25 years. Yet you guys are so desperate for doom that you convince yourself that the economy is in trouble.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby Observerbrb » Mon 26 Nov 2018, 17:30:27

kublikhan wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:IT is amazing how you guys can convince yourselves of a story that has no backup in real data.


The global economy is growing faster than it has been for 5 years. It is growing faster than the average of the last 25 years. Yet you guys are so desperate for doom that you convince yourself that the economy is in trouble.


Tell that to Brexit voters, Trump voters, Le Pen voters, Salvini voters, Wildeers voters, AfD voters in Germany, Bolsonaro voters, etc, etc.

The far right is now rising in Spain, and you will hear soon in the MSM about a new Spanish far-right party that is growing with a huge popular support.

These politicians wouldn't have had an option if the economic situation hadn't been so turbulent. I don't trust the economic data, I trust the voters who want to vote the first leader that yells a big "F*ck you" to the establishment... it wouldn't have happened if things were ok at this point, I can tell you.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 26 Nov 2018, 17:51:13

When I first joined this board, the doomers were all shouting "high oil prices = doom!" Then when a global recession hit it was "recession = doom!" Then it was "low oil prices = doom!" Now it's "lack of recession = doom!" I guess when all you have is a hammer everything looks like a nail.

Voters have often give the establishment a big "F*ck you" with populist politicians on both the right and the left riding the wave of discontentment to come to power. Doesn't mean it has anything to do with the EROEI of oil.

From the 1990s, right-wing populist parties became established in the legislatures of various democracies, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Romania and Sweden; and they entered coalition governments in Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Chile, Finland, Greece, Italy, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Slovakia and Switzerland; and majority governments in India, Turkey, Hungary and Poland.
Right-wing populism

Then of course there were the left wing populist parties:

Mudde and Kaltwasser noted that Latin America has the world's "most enduring and prevalent populist tradition". They suggested that this was the case because it was a region with a long tradition of democratic governance and free elections, but with high rates of socio-economic inequality, generating widespread resentments that politicians can articulate through populism.

The first wave of Latin American populism began at the start of the Great Depression in 1929 and last until the end of the 1960s. In various countries, politicians took power while emphasising "the people": these included Getúlio Vargas in Brazil, Juan Perón in Argentina, and José María Velasco Ibarra in Ecuador. These relied on the Americanismo ideology, presenting a common identity across Latin America and denouncing any interference from imperialist powers.

The second wave took place in the early 1990s. In the late 1980s, many Latin American states were experiencing economic crisis and several populist figures were elected by blaming the elites for this situation.

The third wave began in the final years of the 1990s and continued into the 21st century. Like the first wave, the third made heavy use of Americanismo and anti-imperialism, although this time these themes presented alongside an explicitly socialist program that opposed the free market. Prominent examples included Hugo Chávez in Venezuela, Evo Morales in Bolivia, Rafael Correa in Ecuador, and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua. These socialist populist governments have presented themselves as giving sovereignty "back to the people", in particular through the formation of constituent assemblies that would draw up new constitutions, which could then be ratified via referendums.
Populism in Latin America
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 26 Nov 2018, 19:26:46

Yep. Peak oil as a term has become meaningless because the residual peak oil demographic just seeks out any and all problems in the world and hangs a vague "peak oil" label on top of it, not to mention most of these problems are as old as civilization itself.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby pessimisticoptimist » Mon 26 Nov 2018, 23:27:38

[quote="kublikhan"]When I first joined this board, the doomers were all shouting "high oil prices = doom!" Then when a global recession hit it was "recession = doom!" Then it was "low oil prices = doom!" Now it's "lack of recession = doom!" I guess when all you have is a hammer everything looks like a nail.


Doesn't change the fact that your view of the worldwide economy growing at present and that we are all in good shape is a prize level of delusion.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 00:05:33

kublikhan wrote:
The global economy is growing faster than it has been for 5 years. It is growing faster than the average of the last 25 years. Yet you guys are so desperate for doom that you convince yourself that the economy is in trouble.


With an unregulated global derivative market with a notional value of over a quadrillion dollars, how can it not? Meanwhile....
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 00:21:32

pessimisticoptimist wrote:Doesn't change the fact that your view of the worldwide economy growing at present and that we are all in good shape is a prize level of delusion.
So instead of offering a rebuttal to my argument you snipe at me instead. And the quality of posts on this forum continues to fall.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 00:35:53

Nobody here is in want of a meal (or internet bandwidth). Everyone here are spoiled first-worlders who have no concept of what true hardship feels like.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now. (11/21/18)" --pstarr
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 02:09:25

asg70 wrote:Nobody here is in want of a meal (or internet bandwidth). Everyone here are spoiled first-worlders who have no concept of what true hardship feels like.


There are farm laborers who work for us who
earn $15 a day and find their girlfriends on line using their smart phones.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby pessimisticoptimist » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 02:27:27

kublikhan wrote:
pessimisticoptimist wrote:Doesn't change the fact that your view of the worldwide economy growing at present and that we are all in good shape is a prize level of delusion.
So instead of offering a rebuttal to my argument you snipe at me instead. And the quality of posts on this forum continues to fall.


the rebuttals were already offered above, they didn't require repeating.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 02:41:15

pessimisticoptimist wrote:the rebuttals were already offered above, they didn't require repeating.
The claim that the global economy is shrinking was made with no data backing it up whatsoever. I on the other hand linked to actual IMF data showing the global economy is growing.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 02:45:28

The world stock market cap has lost $15T this year. Things are just looking fantastic!

The U.S markets are plus minus this year in the greatest economy ever. GM announced that they will lay off 15% of its workforce and close 7 plants. The company has 100% debt to equity and is doing fine in a strong economy.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DswNRV9XQAA3EzQ?format=jpg
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 03:27:02

The smart money is getting out of stocks (and bonds) like never before. The stock market is now dependent on dumb money, corporate share buybacks. The stock and bond markets are central bank inflated bubbles. As the central banks start to tighten and raise rates, the corporates can no longer afford to borrow money to buy back their own shares. So how will this end?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ds8HpRvWwAAvX93?format=jpg
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 03:37:20

Yoshua wrote:The world stock market cap has lost $15T this year. Things are just looking fantastic!

The U.S markets are plus minus this year in the greatest economy ever. GM announced that they will lay off 15% of its workforce and close 7 plants. The company has 100% debt to equity and is doing fine in a strong economy.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DswNRV9XQAA3EzQ?format=jpg


Let's not pretend GM represents the global economy. The UAW is a drag on them, and so is their engineering, compared to competition from the likes of Toyota and Honda.

Trying to claim the fate of one aging company which as been in decline for 4 decades is somehow an indicator of the global economy just doesn't fly.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 04:51:36

Let's also not pretend the stock market = the global economy. The stock market has always been much more volatile than the overall economy. The growth of the global stock markets over the past 2 years were triple the losses of this year.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 06:44:01

The U.S corporate bond market has a record share of high yield, or junk bonds and the investment grade bonds have a record share of BBB rated bonds that will turn into junk when the Fed continues to tighten credit and raise rates.

IMF warns that 20 percent of all corporate bond s could default if the Fed continues to tighten and raise rates. The corporate bonds stand at USD 6 trillion today...which also is record.

But let's not pretend that something has happened yet. So far so good.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 09:42:04

Shortonoil you are a nerd. After EROEI 2:1 your work is done. The oil price will now destroy the economy and the oil industry. The oil price is now blind and will never find equilibrium again...since the equilibrium is broken.


We are now at the point where if crude prices go up the economy contracts; if the price goes down production declines. There is no an equilibrium point remaining at the Peak.

The economic ruin will become unprecedented in human history. Our decades of denial will be collected with interest!

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 2

Unread postby dissident » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 10:25:25

Indeed. But the collapse will be even more catastrophic than any bell curve fitting would suggest. Thanks in part to deliberately lowered oil prices as part of geopolitics, the consumption of oil is not declining but increasing. The Hubbert curve cannot be symmetric since the consumption curve is not going mirror itself around the peak. That is, the consumption will not decline like it increased in the past. Consumption will resist declining as long as there are no alternatives to oil and there really aren't since if there were they would be gaining market share beyond boutique levels that we see with alternatives. Unlike the past tail of the Hubbert curve, the future tail is being squeezed towards the peak (i.e. near term):

Image

The left-skewed distribution is what the ultimate all time global oil production curve will look like.
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