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World Grain Status (merged)

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby careinke » Mon 17 Sep 2018, 00:20:42

Our wheat lands in Eastern Oregon had the best production year ever. That said, it was supposed to be planted this week, but the soil is too dry. Hopefully the rain comes soon.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 20 Sep 2018, 09:46:53

Strong decline in food production in Argentina.

https://watchers.news/2018/09/20/severe ... argentina/
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby vox_mundi » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 12:02:14

Beer Supply Threatened by Future Weather Extremes

UCI, other scientists project sharp declines in barley yields due to climate change

Irvine, Calif. -- On top of rising sea levels, stronger hurricanes and worsening wildfires, scientists project that human-caused climate change will result in one of the most dire consequences imaginable: a disruption in the global beer supply.

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In a study published today in Nature Plants, researchers from the University of California, Irvine and other institutions report that concurrent droughts and heat waves, exacerbated by anthropogenic global warming, will lead to sharp declines in crop yields of barley, beer's main ingredient.

"Current levels of fossil fuel consumption and CO2 pollution - business as usual - will result in this worst-case scenario, with more weather extremes negatively impacting the world's beer basket," said co-author Nathan Mueller, UCI assistant professor of Earth system science. "Our study showed that even modest warming will lead to increases in drought and excessive heat events in barley-growing areas."

Only 17 percent of the globe's barley is used in brewing; in fact, most is harvested as feed for livestock. This sets up a conflict in the decades to come: Will producers prioritize hungry animals over thirsty humans? Inputting a decline in barley supply into their computable general equilibrium model, the researchers consistently found that the ratio of the grain going to beer brewing decreased even more. So, in a word: yes.

Prices will go up the most in such wealthy, beer-loving countries as Belgium, Canada, Denmark and Poland. For example, Davis said, during drought years, residents of Ireland could need to bring the equivalent of an extra $20 to the store to buy a six-pack.

"Our results show that in the most severe climate events, the supply of beer could decline by about 16 percent in years when droughts and heat waves strike," he said. "That's comparable to all beer consumption in the U.S. Future climate and pricing conditions could put beer out of reach for hundreds of millions of people around the world."

Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat, Nature Plants (2018).

Its already started ...

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Brewery: SAMUEL ADAMS UTOPIAS
Country of origin: United States
Style: American Strong Ale
ABV: 28%
Price: $150 for 750 ml
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 15:42:56

First, lets look at total global grain production over the last 62 years. A period of significant increase in atmospheric C02 concentration increase. It has increased 375%:

https://www.google.com/search?q=global+ ... 9632163314

Of coarse that was due to an increase in demand as the population increased. But it was still an increase. So what about the yield per area planted with barley? Here's one example found...South Africa: it INCREASED:

https://www.google.com/search?q=global+ ... 9632163314

Barley globally? Roughly flat for the last 9 years.

https://www.google.com/search?q=global+ ... 9632163314

Barley production and consumption has also been looking pretty good in the UK for the last 14 years:

https://cereals.ahdb.org.uk/markets/mar ... uk-sd.aspx

Haven't found any reason to fear climate change affecting barley production. But other potential problems for sure
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 05 Nov 2018, 21:50:40

From our friends at WUWT, contrary to previous studies, new report says global warming has increase US corn yields by 28% since 1981 and farmers have adapted to take advantage of a warmer climate, oops.

Here, we use a crop model that resolves temperature responses according to magnitude and growth phase to show that US maize has benefited from weather shifts since 1981. Improvements are related to lengthening of the growing season and cooling of the hottest temperatures. Furthermore, current farmer cropping schedules are more beneficial in the climate of the last decade than they would have been in earlier decades, indicating statistically significant adaptation to a changing climate of 13 kg·ha−1· decade−1. All together, the better weather experienced by US maize accounts for 28% of the yield trends since 1981.

Previous studies of US maize found that warming suppressed yield trends in Wisconsin (9) and that short-term cooling increased yield trends across the country (10, 11). These earlier studies did not, however, distinguish between moderate temperatures that are beneficial and hot temperatures that are damaging (7, 12), instead using growing-season temperature averages as explanatory variables. This distinction is especially relevant for the US Corn Belt because daily minimum temperatures have risen nearly ubiquitously (13, 14), whereas the hottest growing-season temperatures have cooled by ∼1–
2 °C over the last century


http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/10/31/1808035115
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 06 Nov 2018, 06:56:49

Ah, citing WUWT...very convincing...not
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby jawagord » Tue 06 Nov 2018, 08:51:25

dohboi wrote:Ah, citing WUWT...very convincing...not

I found the report being discussed on WUWT. The report itself is published by the National Academy of Science dohboi, check the link, it's not an editorial from WUWT.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 06 Nov 2018, 10:54:13

So far so good, what happens when the temperature continues to rise?
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby jawagord » Tue 06 Nov 2018, 11:35:20

Newfie wrote:So far so good, what happens when the temperature continues to rise?


The report says night time low temperatures are rising, day time high temperatures are decreasing. CO2 affects night time temperatures, keeping plants warmer at night, is good for plant growth and extending the growing season. Daytime temperatures are not directly affected (or are minimally affected by CO2). All the CO2 studies show most of the warming effects will show up in night time temperatures, during the winter months (when nights are longer and humidity is lower), in the higher latitudes where night times are longer in winter (north of 60). Most of the alarmist fears are about day time highs, which are much less affected by CO2, with almost no affect in the tropics, where humidity dominates heat trapping. I expect crop growth will continue to increase as farmers take advantage of longer growing seasons.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 06 Nov 2018, 11:46:36

Newfie - I see a continued problem with cherry picking. Obviously higher temps will be a problem in SOME AREAS while they'll be beneficial in OTHER AREAS. And confusing that issue will be improvement in crop yields from tech advances and not related to temp changes. And one other complication: time lag. Changes, good and bad, are not going to happen from one growing season to the next.

But regardless of what position anyone takes: so what? Does anyone really expect a significant change in fossil fuel consumption based upon changes in global crop yields? Countless lives and $billion of budgets are expended every year to keep fossil fuel resources available. That's going to change because wheat yields decrease I some regions? A rather childish understanding of human nature IMHO.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 06 Nov 2018, 12:13:49

Yes Rock, still one would hope we could just leave well enough alone. We are at somewhat less than 1°C raise, there seems a little optimistic to say things will only get better as we go towards 4°C rise, which we will.

You are correct, we are in this roller coaster for its inagurial ride. Whooopie.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 06 Nov 2018, 12:35:54

Newfie - As Tonto said to the Lone Ranger: "What do you mean 'we' white man?" LOL. IOW who is this "we" you think you represent? Does that include the Chinese? The folks in India?

Not trying to pick on you too hard. But so many post say "We" can do this or that to fix the situation. And ignore the fact that most of those we's aren't doing crap to change the path we're on.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 06 Nov 2018, 13:17:47

In this contex...all the above. Not that I “represent” anyone, but I was speaking globally.

And you are correct “we” are not going to fix much of anything.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 07 Nov 2018, 14:04:03

Newfie - I, for one, consider you to represent the rational and logical of the world. Which means the vast minority and as such your thoughts don't mean crap. LOL. But still look forward to hearing them.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 07 Nov 2018, 16:23:16

careinke wrote:Our wheat lands in Eastern Oregon had the best production year ever. That said, it was supposed to be planted this week, but the soil is too dry. Hopefully the rain comes soon.


Recently I have been studying upland rice, the kind grown in the Manchuria part of China and many other locations where the landscape doesn't support large wet paddies due to sloping terrain. The reason I bring this up is upland rice seems to love weather like the Oregon/Washington/British Columbia coastal strip gets, but nobody in America seems to be growing it. California grows a lot of 'lowland' or swamp/wet rice paddy style rice and 90% is exported to Asia. Seems like upland rice might be a good money maker for people in your area but I can't find anyone online growing upland rice in your state or your neighbors. Can you point me at a local resource for upland rice?

I go back and forth on Rice since I learned back in 2012 that upland rice can be grown in Manchuria and other locations a lot further from the equator than I had thought. Realizing it is a major crop in Korea where harsh winters are followed by hot summers should have clued me in but I never made the connection until I read about a rice farmer in Upstate New York who lives and farms significantly further north than where I live. There is a reason rice agriculture dominates Asia and is slowly but surely making inroads in North America now that it is widely established in South America. On a calorie and nutrition profile basis it is head and shoulders above Wheat, and the lowland varieties in wet field agriculture have fewer pest problems because most weeds need damp to dry soil, not wet to saturated soil. I suspect once upland rice gets established further up the west coast of North America the carrying capacity will go up again.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 07 Nov 2018, 17:10:26

Interesting comments Tanada. I’m just rereading Taste of War and was reminded that rice was not a major staple in Japan in the late 1800’s to early 1900’s. Like the tomato, which we so associate with Italian cooking, or the potatoe and English food, rice is not apparently a historic natural food of Japan.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 07 Nov 2018, 21:38:31

Newfie wrote:Interesting comments Tanada. I’m just rereading Taste of War and was reminded that rice was not a major staple in Japan in the late 1800’s to early 1900’s. Like the tomato, which we so associate with Italian cooking, or the potatoe and English food, rice is not apparently a historic natural food of Japan.


True enough, it started out as a tropical wetland crop and early attempts to grow it in Japan, which is actually a fairly northern location, we only modestly successful. However over time different cultivars have been developed including ones that grow very fast in long northern summer days but which are often started 'indoors' like tomato in Michigan where I grew up. I was reading earlier about a farmer in northern Indiana who starts his seeds indoors in April and then transfers the plants out to his field over the last two weeks of May. Indianapolis is a few degrees north of Tokyo and northern Indiana is about the same as northern Honshu Island without the discomfort of Siberian winter blowing in every December.
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