Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 08 Oct 2018, 22:36:25

You are suggesting they are all being tuned to match temperatures


You are lying again. I said no such thing.

-----------------

This is pointless.

So lets change the subject....what is your opinion of the new report from the IPCC working group in Korea? They say it will be almost impossible to stop the earth from warming to over 1.5°C.

IPCC says limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will require drastic action....Humanity has a limited window in which it can hope to avoid the worst effects of climate change, according to climate report.

Do you disagree with the latest IPCC report? If so, why?

Cheers!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 21633
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 15:36:39

Do you disagree with the latest IPCC report? If so, why?


haven't gone through in detail but it appears to be completely unlike AR5 where there was a research section that dealt in detail with new advances in all the topics since AR4 and pointed to the vast majority of literature published to the point of acceptance for the report. This latest report appears to be mainly about policy and seems to be missing a large amount of new research. They also don't appear to address uncertainty in any meaningful manner. Great study for politicians who already have their mind made up.

Judith Curry likely hits the nail on the head:

Over land, we have already blown through the 1.5C threshold if measured since 1890.  Temperatures around 1820 were more than 2C cooler.  There has been a great deal natural variability in temperatures prior to 1975 when human caused global warming kicked in any meaningful way.
And the IPCC climate model projections ignore the bottom third of the ‘likely’ climate sensitivity values – 1.5 to 4.5 C -, with only the outlier Russian model having a value of ECS as low as 2.1 C.  Much of this problem goes away if ECS is actually 1.5 to 2 C.
And then there is the goldilocks issue.  Who would prefer the climate of the 18th or 19th century relative to the climate of the early 21st century?


https://judithcurry.com/2018/10/08/1-5-degrees/
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6237
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sun 14 Oct 2018, 04:19:18

rockdoc123 wrote:
Judith Curry wrote:Much of this problem goes away if ECS is actually 1.5 to 2 C.


Good grief, so if warming is slower (and not many climate scientists think so), much of the problem goes away? Which part goes away, Ms Curry? Does that mean there is a chance a future generation will have to deal with it, so you don't?


A scientist? No, I don't think so.
Last edited by Tanada on Sun 14 Oct 2018, 09:34:14, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quote
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2833
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 18 Oct 2018, 01:20:23

rockdoc123 wrote:
Judith Curry wrote:Much of this problem goes away if ECS is actually 1.5 to 2 C.


Good grief, so if warming is slower (and not many climate scientists think so), much of the problem goes away? Which part goes away, Ms Curry? Does that mean there is a chance a future generation will have to deal with it, so you don't?

A scientist? No, I don't think so.

[Sorry about the bad quote previously, this is to correct your correction, Tanada. There doesn't seem to be a way to edit the post]
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2833
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 18 Oct 2018, 09:20:06

Good grief, so if warming is slower (and not many climate scientists think so), much of the problem goes away? Which part goes away, Ms Curry? Does that mean there is a chance a future generation will have to deal with it, so you don't?

A scientist? No, I don't think so.


rather than blathering like a loon you should perhaps acquaint yourself with the various representative concentration pathways proposed by the IPCC years ago and still used. As a consequence of peak oil and gradual replacement of ICB's with EV's the input of man made emissions into the system is forecast to plateau at some point prior to 2100. The IPCC tends to look at its long-term forecasts out to 2100. Hence Curry's comments are based on the forecast to 2100...a doubling of CO2 at low ECS is essentially a non-event. As to her being a scientist....what kind of stupid comment is that? She has almost double the publications and awards of any of the go to warmists including Mann and Schmidt.

Posting your nonsense twice doesn't make it any more reasonable, though you are apparently proud of your misunderstanding. :roll:
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6237
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 22 Oct 2018, 00:43:29

rockdoc123 wrote:
Good grief, so if warming is slower (and not many climate scientists think so), much of the problem goes away? Which part goes away, Ms Curry? Does that mean there is a chance a future generation will have to deal with it, so you don't?

A scientist? No, I don't think so.


rather than blathering like a loon you should perhaps acquaint yourself with the various representative concentration pathways proposed by the IPCC years ago and still used. As a consequence of peak oil and gradual replacement of ICB's with EV's the input of man made emissions into the system is forecast to plateau at some point prior to 2100. The IPCC tends to look at its long-term forecasts out to 2100. Hence Curry's comments are based on the forecast to 2100...a doubling of CO2 at low ECS is essentially a non-event. As to her being a scientist....what kind of stupid comment is that? She has almost double the publications and awards of any of the go to warmists including Mann and Schmidt.

Posting your nonsense twice doesn't make it any more reasonable, though you are apparently proud of your misunderstanding. :roll:

No blathering involved; I'm just amazed that someone who thinks (though not proven) that ECS is towards the lower end of the estimates would think that most of the problem goes away if it is. She can see for herself that warming so far is having an impact (and most climate scientists think it's a serious impact) at only a 40% increase in CO2 forcing. Even if she really is convinced that a doubling of CO2 over pre-industrial (which now requires only another 40% increase on what it is now) might only increase temperature another 1C (though she puts a lot of emphasis on uncertainty, which can work both ways) then it's obvious there is a clear problem, not that "much of the problem goes away".

Just to reiterate, with a 40% increase already resulting in 1-1.2C rise (which is not yet all of the rise due to the CO2 already in the atmosphere), a low value for ECS is pretty much ruled out, though the odd contrarian climate scientist still clings to the hope that it is low. And, remarkably, government policies the world over seems to be based on these odd contrarians, rather than the consensus.
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2833
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 22 Oct 2018, 10:29:04

Just to reiterate, with a 40% increase already resulting in 1-1.2C rise (which is not yet all of the rise due to the CO2 already in the atmosphere), a low value for ECS is pretty much ruled out, though the odd contrarian climate scientist still clings to the hope that it is low.


I suggest you read something for a change. Your seat of the pants logic flies in the face of actual research that has been published recently. Scafeta and others have made the point that as time progresses the tendency has been for calculations of both TCS and ECS trend lowere. But maybe you should write to all of those scientists who have published their calculations showing low ECS and TCS and inform them how they just don't know what they are talking about. :roll:

Image
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6237
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 13:45:33

Changes in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events at the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 1X18304643

- Modelling shows a shift in the frequency–intensity relationship of precipitation.
- Incidence of extreme events increases by 70% in some regions.
- Changes in extreme precipitation are often decoupled from mean annual changes.

While the most extreme precipitation rates tend to relate to increases in convective precipitation, in some regions dynamic changes in atmospheric circulation are also of importance.



Catastrophic soil erosion during the end-Permian biotic crisis


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 141844.htm

thanks to vox at asif for these
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17679
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 14:34:03

'The Blob' Is Back: Here's What It Could Mean for Lower 48
https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2018-10-24-the-blob-returns-pacific-ocean

I'm not too sanguine about this. If this Blob is the same Blob that caused California's last drought, then this is no good news.
User avatar
jedrider
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1172
Joined: Thu 28 May 2009, 09:10:44

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 14:51:47

Have been hearing rumours of unusually cold winter in store for the N.East US. Can anyone confirm this?
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9779
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 15:18:54

onlooker wrote:Have been hearing rumours of unusually cold winter in store for the N.East US. Can anyone confirm this?

- Expect higher than average temperatures this winter, according to a government forecast.
- NOAA’s Winter Outlook predicts three quarters of the country will have a warmer winter.
- The South and the East Coast are expected to have more precipitation than usual.

Image

Image
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
User avatar
vox_mundi
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3944
Joined: Wed 27 Sep 2006, 02:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 15:22:36

Thanks Vox.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9779
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 03 Nov 2018, 00:09:54

Supreme Court refuses to block landmark youth climate lawsuit

https://www.axios.com/supreme-court-all ... 59d69.html

The Supreme Court Friday night refused to halt a novel lawsuit filed by young Americans that attempts to force the federal government to take action on climate change, turning down a request from the Trump administration to stop it before trial.

The suit, filed in 2015 by 21 young people who argue that the failure of government leaders to combat climate change violates their constitutional right to a clean environment, is before a federal judge in Oregon. It had been delayed while the Supreme Court considered the emergency request from the government.

“We’ve been confident throughout this case that we would get to trial, and I believe we will get to trial,” Julia Olson, the attorney for the youths and executive director of Our Children’s Trust, said in an interview with The Washington Post on Friday evening. “We have overcome everything the government has thrown at us. It is not luck. It is the strength of the case and the strength of the evidence and the strength of the legal arguments we are making.”
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17679
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 03 Nov 2018, 05:56:36

This was mentioned elsewhere on this forum. I think it’s a good case and should go forward. Bully to SCOTUS for allowing it. If nothing else it will bring some visibility and discussion to the matter.

Perhaps it will reach an audience that have previously been ignoring the subject. Can’t hurt.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 11265
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby GHung » Sat 03 Nov 2018, 08:41:33

Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2519
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 03 Nov 2018, 12:47:50

https://www.skepticalscience.com/2018-S ... up_44.html

Earth’s carbon dioxide levels are likely the highest they've been in 15 million years

We’ve entered some profoundly unfamiliar planetary territory.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17679
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 03 Nov 2018, 13:40:20

This is truly ominous

Full Earth System Sensitivity to CO2 has been Grossly Underestimated

https://kevinhester.live/2017/11/10/ful ... FX81dRxXSg
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9779
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

David W. against Goliath

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 03 Nov 2018, 15:48:50

Thanks for the link, been watching David his video....
So how to draw down 500 Gton of Carbon asap? And stop burning FF and implement solar economy?

I really like him and it is wise to keep dreaming :-D
To break free and restore our own personal power, to take only the needed.
Job of a lifetime, the greatest thing we can do as humans on a personal note.
User avatar
Whitefang
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 457
Joined: Fri 12 May 2006, 02:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 12 Nov 2018, 16:16:43

Voices of doom are really starting to hit the mainstream...somehow this makes me hopeful! 8O

Climate change is getting too big and divisive to solve

https://www.axios.com/climate-change-to ... 7f2bb.html

Extract: "America’s divisive politics and the sheer math of cutting heat-trapping emissions indicate the world’s prospect of substantively tackling climate change is getting out of reach.

Why it matters: We often talk about this issue as though big solutions are coming sooner or later. But in fact, it’s a big “if,” not “when,” America and the world will do anything close to what scientists say is needed to avoid the worst impacts of a warmer world.

What's next: Why we should focus more on adapting to a warmer world"
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17679
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 12 Nov 2018, 16:41:59

dohboi wrote:Voices of doom are really starting to hit the mainstream...somehow this makes me hopeful! 8O


The catalyst of consequences to unify the collective.
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6607
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

PreviousNext

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests