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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

+++OIL/ GAS supply/demand WARNING+++

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: +++OIL/ GAS supply/demand WARNING+++

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 21 Oct 2018, 15:59:03

pstarr wrote:As a matter of fact, I have no recollection of you entering into discussions about anything except reserves and the potential to grow them seemingly forever.

When will production from known and future reserves no longer grow? Are you willing to share with us an educated guess? It should be easy given your understanding of of as yet undeveloped resources. When does Vaca for instance play out? Will the Chinese produce from their crumbly shale. If so when will that play out?

Step up man

First, for you to state that you don't make unending incorrect predictions re "collapse" is absurd. There IS a search feature on this site for past posts, you know.

Second, I never pretended to have the specific answers re how much oil we have (as you often pretend to, only to have your predictions of collapse re lack of oil proven wrong, again and again).

My main point is that there are alternatives to "rapid collapse". Conservation, driving less, and green technologies are among them. I repeatedly point out that while those alternatives are often inconvenient in terms of cost, especially in the short run -- inconvenience is NOT doom, collapse, armageddon, etc. Oh, and that technology DOES advance, and is helpful (despite your frequent denial of that). Whether better solar cells, batteries, or just reducing the energy intensity of the US and global economy over time, by a dramatic amount, which is an ongoing process forecast to continue for decades -- to cite three examples. Or for another, go ahead: demonstrate how advances in light bulbs in recent decades haven't saved HUGE amounts of electricity.

Feel free to "step up, man" and cite MEANINGFUL reasons, complete with credible citations (instead of random hysterical blogs) why none of these things can be true.

Don't expect name calling and false pronouncements to be deemed credible outside the Cassandra herd, BTW.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: +++OIL/ GAS supply/demand WARNING+++

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 21 Oct 2018, 16:03:06

So outcaste, in lieu of you master and as a stand in for him . . . are you willing to engage in the question of reserves vs production? Where is next year's oil coming from? As an owe-so-concerned member of this site are you willing to name a date for peak oil, and to predict when and where the mitigations and energy replacements will be available as fill-ins? As a concerned and steady-headed fellow, you know how important it is to have a clear head and heart and have all duck and chickens lined up in a row.

With average production decline of 6.7% per annum yoy, please share how alternative fuel source and infrastructure delivery mechanism will make up with electricity, biofuels, hydrogen fuel cells, hemp oil and urban gardens. Awaiting your response. That is important stuff. We have to keep shopping and buying stuff. Can't live on those backyard gardens.
"Fortune is of a sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid."
Lucius Annaeus Seneca
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Re: +++OIL/ GAS supply/demand WARNING+++

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 21 Oct 2018, 19:19:53

pstarr:
Perhaps Khashoggi knew too much, that SA had already peaked? Knowing peak is bad for business; customers would save, hoard for future access.


You get a double fudge, 4 decker, chocolate Sunday for that one. The excuse that he was killed because he was a critic of the Crown, just doesn't pass the sniff test. He was killed to shut him up, and not because he was about to tell that MbS wears pink panties to bed! "As goes Ghawar, goes the world" Matt Simmons

As far as Peak is concerned it looks like we hit it last year. Looking at the Hubbert's graph I posted (chart221) and the loss of production this year (Venezuela, Iran, Angola ....) 2017 is going to turn out to be the Peak. However, a decline in production alone does not signify Peak. Production fell for 5 consecutive years between 1979 and 1984. Using just declining production logic we would all be living in caves before Peak was confirmed. There has to be good theoretical, and observational bases for declaring the Peak; and there are.
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Re: +++OIL/ GAS supply/demand WARNING+++

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 21 Oct 2018, 20:39:59

shortonoil wrote:pstarr:
Perhaps Khashoggi knew too much, that SA had already peaked? Knowing peak is bad for business; customers would save, hoard for future access.


You get a double fudge, 4 decker, chocolate Sunday for that one. The excuse that he was killed because he was a critic of the Crown, just doesn't pass the sniff test. He was killed to shut him up, and not because he was about to tell that MbS wears pink panties to bed! "As goes Ghawar, goes the world" Matt Simmons

He overheard the wrong thing. And had to put up with a lot worse than rockdoc. Who said peak oil wasn't yummy? lol

shortonoil wrote:As far as Peak is concerned it looks like we hit it last year. Looking at the Hubbert's graph I posted (chart221) and the loss of production this year (Venezuela, Iran, Angola ....) 2017 is going to turn out to be the Peak. However, a decline in production alone does not signify Peak. Production fell for 5 consecutive years between 1979 and 1984. Using just declining production logic we would all be living in caves before Peak was confirmed. There has to be good theoretical, and observational bases for declaring the Peak; and there are.
what is not in decline these days? Other than oil company/deep state bs?

So I can't imagine what that theoretical base is? Does it start with an e? Something like eat me? Lol
"Fortune is of a sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid."
Lucius Annaeus Seneca
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Re: +++OIL/ GAS supply/demand WARNING+++

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 22 Oct 2018, 01:02:21

pstarr wrote:are you willing to engage in the question of reserves vs production? Where is next year's oil coming from?


I've kind of figured out what my big frustration is with the discussion on this site.

The answer comes in the form of the NPC meme.

The old-timers on this site repeat the same tired rhetoric day upon day, week upon week, and year about year. The tune never changes. Doom is always nigh. It was nigh 10 years ago and it's still just as nigh.

How long before you start regurgitating your "demand dearth" narrative? How long before you bang out your neologism "eau de bakken" again?

Image

Point being that the prediction game has shown to be just that, a game, and one in which most participants wind up with egg on their face. You definitely have had that happen enough times that your NPC rhetoric should carry little weight here. And yet you continue to swagger like Nostradamus.

As soon as you offer something new then maybe it will be worth engaging with you.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet?" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T PAY. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: +++OIL/ GAS supply/demand WARNING+++

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 30 Oct 2018, 18:45:57

I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

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Re: +++OIL/ GAS supply/demand WARNING+++

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 31 Oct 2018, 09:41:31

asg - "Point being that the prediction game has shown to be just that, a game,..." Exactly. You probably know I worked in the oil patch for 42 years. From Big Oil to two man independents. So in their future economic analysis how did the admitted expects predict future prices? Very rarely did the approach not use the current oil/NG and carry that value forward indefinitely in future revenue projections. Did any of those companies doing so would be right? No: future prices were definitely going to be higher...or lower. t was just an accepted convention. Except for promoters trying to sucker foolish investors who always predicted higher future prices.
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Re: +++OIL/ GAS supply/demand WARNING+++

Unread postby aspera » Wed 31 Oct 2018, 11:22:29

Peak Shale: Is the US Fracking Industry Already in Decline?
By Justin Mikulka, October 31, 2018
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-10-31/peak-shale-is-the-us-fracking-industry-already-in-decline/

But even some fracking CEOs don’t believe the optimistic forecasts for the Permian. In Bethany McLean’s excellent new book Saudi America: The Truth About Fracking and How It’s Changing the World, she speaks to two of the fracking CEOs who have actually had success in the industry — Bill Thomas and Mark Papa.

Bill Thomas, current CEO of EOG (formerly known as Enron Oil and Gas), one of the few fracking companies making money, tells McLean that in the Permian the “really good rock” is smaller than the industry optimists are saying. This helps explain the surge in child wells where the industry is trying to over-drill what good rock there is.

...

In Saudi America, McLean reports that Papa had said that by 2020, even in the Permian, the best acreage will have been mostly drilled and he predicted a sizable dropoff in production to follow.

...

At current oil prices, most fracking companies are losing money while trying to get every last drop out of the known sweet spots in American shale plays. Under these conditions, the industry is having a hard time accepting that what Papa, Thomas, and Kibsgaard are saying could be true. These companies can’t hope to pay back their massive debts if the best days of the major shale plays are either in the past or rapidly approaching.

Saudi America: The Truth About Fracking and How It’s Changing the World. Released: September 11, 2018. https://www.amazon.com/Saudi-America-Truth-Fracking-Changing/dp/0999745441
Plant a garden. Soon.
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Re: +++OIL/ GAS supply/demand WARNING+++

Unread postby wildbourgman » Wed 31 Oct 2018, 11:27:29

It's been a while chimed in but I think a lot of folks might be missing the boat on this subject. I don't think it even matters if the Peak oil folks or the cornucopian group are right. Myself I've went to playing "small ball" to use a sports analogy. What's going to happen shorter term that will affect the end game, if there even is an end game? What are the signs that I look for in my industry (oil and gas exploration) that tell me what the cycle is going to do? That is what I spend a lot of my time on. What are the economic fundamentals that point me in a direction so I know if I'm going to get a pay check in a year or if I'm going to get a raise in a year?
So I'm not looking at peak oil or abundance because the market cycles have had many of the same affects time after time regardless of the long term. Yes, there may appear to be abundance due to shale but what do those shale companies balance sheets look like ?

When I see 20 year old rough necks buying new F-350's King Ranch trucks that's kind of a sign that we are topping out and a price collapse is near.

When I see drilling rigs gathering rust and three year old F-350 King ranch trucks for sale everywhere in South Louisiana and Texas I think that production of oil and gas probably dropping to a point where things might be ready to go the other way.

Now my prediction is that Shale will falter again, shale production will go down again but the investment money won't come back so soon. I think the shale fields will get bought up by the players with better balance sheets and some history of discipline. I also think that is where investment in offshore drilling might take the spotlight off of shale. I'm thinking of plays such as Exxon in Guyana and maybe even deep water Mexico. Let's see how that shakes out.


This is what I said in July of 2013.
"My prediction is that it's going to be wild especially for those who have never strapped into this roller coaster before. Enjoy the ride!"

the-set-up-for-a-collapse-of-oil-prices-t68469-40.html

the-set-up-for-a-collapse-of-oil-prices-t68469-20.html
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